Currently browsing

February 2007

Using Win Score

Baseball has a variety of relatively simple yet accurate measures of player performance. As we report in The Wages of Wins, slugging average explains 81% of a team’s runs scored. On-base-percentage does a bit better, explaining 83% of runs scored. OPS, which adds on-base-percentage and slugging average together, explains 90% …

Myth Busting in Baseball

Sharon Begley of The Wall Street Journal has authored a column today entitled: “A New Study Shows How Baseball Myths Can Hurt the Game.” The “study” Begley notes is not one study, but a series of studies authored and summarized by JC Bradbury in The Baseball Economist: The Real Game …

Can the Heat Repeat?

“I ain’t as good as I once was.” This might be the theme song for the aging stars of the Miami Heat in 2006-07. With a record of 26-26 heading into the All-Star game, Miami just doesn’t look like a team that will successfully defend its title. Of course, for …

More Reviews

Yesterday I noted on our homepage (Wages of Wins) that two more reviews of The Wages of Wins have appeared. Since I am not sure if people are consistently looking at our home page, I thought I would note these reviews in this forum. Allen R. Sanderson of the University …

The Overrated and the Underrated

One of the main stories we tell in The Wages of Wins is that there is a difference between how observers value performance in the NBA and how that performance actually impacts team wins. Perceptions of performance can be captured with metrics dominated by scoring – such as NBA Efficiency …

Eddy Curry is a Star?

In a story widely reported in the New York media, Eddy Curry announced this week that if Isiah Thomas if fired by the New York Knicks, then Curry will want out of the Big Apple. Here is how the story was covered by Frank Isola of the New York Daily …

Is Bargnani the Next Nowitzki?

With the first pick in the 2006 NBA Draft the Toronto Raptors selected Andrea Bargnani. The story told at the time was that Bargnani was the “next Nowitzki.” This story was told on draft night and also many times since. Even Nowitzki has voiced this sentiment. “He’s a better player …

Super Bowl Lessons

The big Super Bowl story is that Peyton Manning finally led his team to a victory in a big game. Such is the conventional wisdom after the Super Bowl. Unfortunately such conventional wisdom, as is often the case in this forum, falls apart when we look at the data. The …

The Coaches Select the All-Stars

The fans voting for the All-Star game tells us who the fans wish to see start the mid-season classic. Now the coaches have told us who they believe “deserve” to be reserves in the All-Star game. A few days ago I reviewed the starters chosen by the fans. In this …