After it was announced that Ron Artest was heading to Houston, Chris Broussard of ESPN offered a list of the NBA’s top trio (a list that was picked up by Dime Magazine). As the following list (from Dime Magazine) indicates, Broussard ranks Houston’s new trio as the fourth best in the Association.
1. KG, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen
2. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili
3. Kobe, Bynum, Gasol
4. T-Mac, Yao, Artest
5. Chris Paul, David West, Tyson Chandler
6. Nash, Amare, Shaq
7. Chauncey, Rip, ‘Sheed
8. Dirk, Kidd, Josh Howard
9. Arenas, Caron, Antawn Jamison
10. Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller
Looking over this list I wondered how it would appear if we used WP48 (Wins Produced per 48 minutes) to rank the trios. Specifically, I calculated the average WP48 of each trio from the 2007-08 season (for Brand and Arenas I used their 2006-07 values). Here are the results:
1. Kobe, Bynum, Gasol [0.280 average WP48]
2. Duncan, Parker, Ginobili [0.270 average WP48]
3. Chris Paul, David West, Tyson Chandler [0.264 average WP48]
4. KG, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen [0.246 average WP48]
5. Nash, Amare, Shaq [0.245 average WP48]
6. Dirk, Kidd, Josh Howard [0.241 average WP48]
T7. Chauncey, Rip, ‘Sheed [0.192 average WP48]
T7. Arenas, Caron, Antawn Jamison [0.192 average WP48]
9. Elton Brand, Andre Iguodala, Andre Miller [0.184 average WP48]
10. T-Mac, Yao, Artest [0.140 average WP48]
A few notes on each list…
- As I noted a couple of days ago, the addition of Artest does not dramatically improve Houston. And I would add, as WP48 indicates, this does not give the Rockets one of the top trios in the league. If we expanded our coverage to all NBA teams, we would not see the new Houston trio in the top ten.
- Let me amend that previous comment by noting that Broussard’s list does not always report the top trio on each team. In other words, if Ron Artest continues performing as he did last year, it is not likely that he will be one of the top three players – in WP48 – for the Rockets next season.
- A similar observation could be made about the Celtics (Rajon Rondo tops Ray Allen) and the Pistons (Rip Hamilton is not in the top three in Detroit).
- All that being said, with the exception of where he put Houston’s trio, Broussard’s ranking is quite similar to the ranking we see from WP48.
In the next few days I will try and rank all the top trios from 2007-08. This ranking will follow the methodologies laid forth in the following posts from 2007:
The Pareto Principle and the New Boston Celtics
- DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
Nice work, Dave, but let me add to it just a tad.
The Celtics only have the fourth-best trio on the list, but they had a top supporting cast last year. Using the Law of Diminishing Returns, their WP48s would be lower, since others would take away a measure of their production. Same idea for the Pistons, who have remained one of the top teams in the NBA despite only being tied for seventh on top trios.
On the other hand, the 2006-07 Minnesota Timberwolves could have bumped the Rockets off of this list with a .158 WP48. But without KG, the trio of Ricky Davis, Marko Jaric, and Trenton Hassell would have only averaged .060
That’s why the C’s are still dangerous in spite of lagging behind the Lakers, Spurs, and Hornets (after all, they have the East’s top trio)
And if Chris Paul maintained or even improved on his 2007-08 performance, that’s why the Hornets might potentially challenge the Lakers and Spurs for West supremacy. In fact, they already have, taking San Antonio to seven games in the second round of the playoffs.
Someone will have to correct me if I’m wrong, but the Celtics top 3 last year was Rondo, Pierce, and Garnett…not Allen, Pierce, and Garnett. I’m assuming Berri was using Broussards list without trying to list every team in the NBA’s correct trio. If he did then Houston with Artest would not be in the top 10.
FTA
# Let me amend that previous comment by noting that Broussard’s list does not always report the top trio on each team. In other words, if Ron Artest continues performing as he did last year, it is not likely that he will be one of the top three players – in WP48 – for the Rockets next season.
# A similar observation could be made about the Celtics (Rajon Rondo tops Ray Allen) and the Pistons (Rip Hamilton is not in the top three in Detroit).
I see another real-world experiment about to be conducted, like the Iverson for Dre Miller test. It is the Dallas vs Houston experiment. Mainstream media says that the Mavs are fading and likely to wind up out of the playoffs, but this column posits a huge gap in favor of the Mavs vs the Rockets, at least as to the top 3. So let’s see who’s right again (I happen to think neither team can make it to the conf finals, if their opponents stay healthy, but I like the Rockets’ chances a little better than the Mavs).
From Vince Gagliano: And if Chris Paul maintained or even *improved* on his 2007-08 performance…
My reaction:
Oh my… .406WP48… Scary.
Dave,
By any chance, do you know of any NBA GM who has read your book?
I would think that Danny Ainge read both the tragedies of KG, and Paul Pierce, and immediately took action. Apparently, no one else is intelligent enough to catch on yet.
What about Biedrins, Ellis and Maggette? Seems like their WP-48 average should easily crack your list…
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Man, I was not even thinking of Rondo being in the top 3, but now it is obvious. Very good analysis.
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