As I have noted in the past, I was born in Detroit and grew up a Pistons fan. And since sports allegiance doesn’t (or at least shouldn’t) change as you age, I remain a Pistons fan.
My memory of the Pistons extends all the way back to the days of Bob Lanier (I can still remember when he was traded to the Milwaukee Bucks). But I truly began to follow the Pistons when Isiah Thomas was drafted (in 1981 when I was eleven). The story I believed growing up was that Isiah put the Pistons on the map, and it was Isiah who led the Detroit to the team’s first two championships.
As I noted last summer, the story I grew up believing is not told by Wins Produced (see Looking Back at the Bad Boys). Wins Produced indicates that The Bad Boys were led by Dennis Rodman and Bill Laimbeer (not Isiah Thomas).
After Rodman and Laimbeer moved on, the Pistons became quite a bit worse. The Grant Hill era saw some success, but it wasn’t until another productive big man – Ben Wallace – came on the scene that the Pistons once again contended for the title.
Discussing Chauncey and Isiah on Pistonscast
Unlike what we saw with Rodman and Laimbeer, though, when Big Ben left the Pistons didn’t fall apart. Since Wallace departed in 2006 the Pistons have had two +50 win seasons. And the leading producer of wins on each team has been Chauncey Billups.
Table One: The Detroit Pistons in 2006-07 and 2005-06
Table Two: The Detroit Pistons in 2007-08
All of this serves as a background to a recent conversation I had with John W. Davis and Deven Khrucell. John and Deven are the hosts of Pistonscast, “the number one podcast for die-hard Pistons fans.” As I remember, last spring I was a guest on the program and the subject of Allen Iverson came up. As I often note, “the Answer” is not quite as productive as many believe. And I noted at the time, I think Isiah was a more productive player than Iverson.
Such a statement may make Iverson fans unhappy, but is not exactly disputed by “die-hard Pistons fans.” But as I often do, I could not leave well enough alone. I also indicated last spring that Chauncey Billups – the current point guard in Detroit – is more productive than the one considered the greatest player in team history.
When I noted that Billups offers more today than Isiah did in the 1980s, Deven expressed some unhappiness. As a result, I was asked to return to the show to debate Deven on the relative merits of Chauncey and Isiah.
This debate is now posted at Pistonscast. The specific podcasts you need to hear – if you are interested in this discussion – are Episodes 62 and 63. Episode 62 is the first half of our discussion. We begin on the topic of Kwame Brown, but after awhile move into the discussion of Billups and Thomas. This debate is then continued in episode 63.
Essentially, Deven’s perspective is that the numbers are not enough to tell us that Chauncey is worth more than Isiah. Of course, I disagree. The numbers in basketball do explain wins. And those numbers go back to the individuals. Furthermore, it’s not clear to me how we could ever objectively test the propositions put forward by the non-numbers crowd. At least, I can’t see how we can test such propositions without numbers.
More on Billups, Isiah, and Iverson
For those who wish to see more numbers on this subject, here is a comparison of the career numbers of Billups, Thomas, and Iverson.
Table Three: Comparing Chauncey Billups, Isiah Thomas, and Allen Iverson
As Table Three indicates, the key stats are shooting efficiency and turnovers. Unlike Isiah and Iverson – who are both below average with respect to shots from the field and turnovers – Billups excels with respect to each of these stats. Consequently, Billups has a bigger impact on team wins.
If we turn to Wins Produced, we see the following career marks [in Wins Produced and Wins Produced per 48 minutes]:
Chauncey Billups: 90.9 Wins Produced, 0.181 WP48
Isiah Thomas: 97.4 Wins Produced, 0.132 WP48
Allen Iverson: 64.8 Wins Produced, 0.090 WP48
And if we look at each player’s career best marks [in WP48], again we see Billups coming out on top:
Chauncey Billups: 16.0 Wins Produced, 0.304 WP48 [2007-08]
Isiah Thomas: 18.6 Wins Produced, 0.289 WP48 [1984-85]
Allen Iverson: 10.0 Wins Produced, 0.152 WP48 [2004-05]
So those are the numbers. My sense is that Deven will not be convinced. And hopefully as you listen, you will hear that it’s okay if we don’t all agree. The conversation, by itself, is still quite fun (and hopefully interesting).
One More Interview
Last Thursday I was also a guest on the Jack Warkenthein’s Show – Where Wall Street Meets Main Street – on the Biz Radio Network. If you turn to the Podcasts for Jack’s show you can listen to my two segments on August 21 (part two and three). One should keep in mind, though, that this interview was done at 7:20am Central Time (the show is broadcast in Texas). This is 6:20am at my home in Utah. You are listening to me speak just minutes after I woke up that morning. So I don’t guarantee that I am entirely coherent (which probably makes the whole conversation even more interesting).
Still, I do think I offered some reasonable comments on Olympic basketball, the Rockets acquisition of Ron Artest, and the Mavericks acquisition of Jason Kidd. I think I also said something about why high oil prices could be good news. Again, the whole conversation was pretty early in the morning.
- DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
No one will ever convince me that if Flip had kept Amir in the rotation last year after the Pistons got Ratliff that the Pistons would not have won the NBA Title.
A good point the presenters of the podcast made is there have been changes in the rules particularly in how perimeter players can be guarded, it is now easier for perimeter players to score more efficiently. Another thing is that there are more teams in the league now so there are players that are in the NBA that wouldn’t have been in a league with fewer teams. Therefore across the board the talent has been diluted so it would be easier to produce more wins now than in the 80s/90s
To me, Zeke remains the best Piston of all time. But Billups is close and still active. Therefore, CB could overtake IT. It could happen this season — if Detroit wins it all.
“A good point the presenters of the podcast made is there have been changes in the rules particularly in how perimeter players can be guarded, it is now easier for perimeter players to score more efficiently.”
Is there any evidence to support this? Did perimeter players who played prior to the rule change score more efficiently after the rule change?
The talent pool is not diluted with the addition of a few extra teams. The game is way more global, and many of the best players in the game are foreigners. Very few made the trip across the pond in the 80s.
Nick P – How dare you belittle Alexander Volkov like that!
It’s an interesting question how Points Per Shot has changed. John Stockton, Mark Price, and many other contemporaries of Isiah seemed to have little problem posting a high ts%.
At the end of the day, the conclusion that is most plausible is that Isiah, as the leading scorer, got more credit for his team’s success than he deserved.
Perhaps Billups is more efficient (and, I would guess, a superior defender), but Isiah has too many legendary playoff performances to his name.
Detroit fans saw Chauncey Billups play tentatively against Boston after resting a so-so ankle sprain for nearly a week. Many of the same fans couldn’t help but compare that to Isiah Thomas’ legendary 25-point quarter against the Lakers, accomplished in spite of a far worse injury.
Champions help us understand greatness, efficiency or no. Zeke will always be #1.
@LanierFan
Wasn’t that 25 point effort done in a loss?
Wasn’t Thomas pretty terrible for the rest of the games in that series?
In fact, Billups was most likely more productive than Isiah was in those 2 respective series.
Thomas was 49-115, and 35-42, from the line, with 5 three pointers. Those were roughly near his season averages.
Magic was 44-80, and 58-67 ft with 2 three pointers for a ts% of 67%.
http://big.chez-alice.fr/webuns/finals/1988.htm
@Owen
To be fair, I said in the rest of the games. He shot 37% in the rest of the games from the field.
It is awesome that he played hurt and all. That is admirable, but you have to look at it in terms of how much he helped his team during that series, and it appears as though, beyond that one quarter, he wasn’t too helpful and that one great quarter was in a game that resulted in a loss.
I am mostly attempting to add perspective to what he said.
No worries, I agree with you. I am definitely in the Isiah is overrated camp….
There are 82 games; diluting the league (wch in any case is a myth, I agree) can’t make it easier for a player to produce more wins.
One reason for the admiration that Thomas and Iverson get is that they are small guys playing a big man’s game at a high level. One interesting piece of research that I don’t think has been touched would be WP looked at vs. height.
I would also have liked to have seen pay vs. height personally in WoW. I think height wasn’t talked about enough personally, because it was incredibly intriguing to me.
Thanks for being on the Prof D. I think you have some educated readers who are knowledgeable both ways in the Chauncey v. Isiah debate.
Peace,
John W. Davis
http://www.pistonscast.com
When I’m not at work I’m going to have to listen to this podcast. I’ve always felt that the big drawback in Mr. Berri’s work is that he considers Win Score and Wins Produced to be the end of any debate — as opposed to the beginning of a debate, or evidence that one might use to support one’s side in a debate. John Hollinger can be that way sometimes, but you’ll also read many examples of him supplementing PER numbers with discussion of man-to-man defense, or salary cap reprecussions, or other things that PER doesn’t measure. I don’t think I’ve read anything on this site that acknolwedged that there might be more to understanding basketball than the WoW statistical method.
Anyway, here’s hoping that the podcast changes my mind.
I think there is a difference between most talented/skilled and most productive. I think most people who have watched Billups and Isiah play will say that Isiah is the more talented and skilled player. His skills on the court were simply amazing – dribbling, passing, scoring, hand speed, foot speed, etc. The only skills Billups exceeds Isiah in are probably 3-pt shooting and post-game. Unfortunately, Isiah didn’t use his skills to be as productive as Billups. He dribbled too much and it led to turnovers. He took too many difficult shots, attempted too many difficult passes, or simply was too small for his skills to impose his will on more facets of the game than scoring and passing. Either way, Billups has proven to be more productive but there aren’t too many scouts that would say he has more skill/talent than Isiah. I think Prof Berri stated a long time ago on this blog that Wins Produced just looks at the effect but there are others like Dean Poliver who are looking into the cause or the “why” some players are more productive than others.
There is no question that the regular season Isiah was massively over rated (and I’m not generally a WOW guy), but he seems to have been one guy who upped his production in the playoffs. I know Chuck Daly once said that Isiah had a tendency to “lose concentration”, which might explain why he played better in the post season. But yeah, I agree with Berri that the success of those teams had much more to do with Rodman and Laimbeer than most people thought at the time, and that Thomas gets way too much credit for “carrying” a ragtag group of hall of famers and great role players to glory. Dean Oliver did a good job pointing out once that the rise and fall of the Pistons correlated much better with the minutes played by Laimbeer than with minutes played by Thomas. I’d probably take Billups over Isiah too.
Bill Laimbeer is awesome.
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I’ve been a die hard Piston fan since 1985 and in my opinion I think Joe Dumars was better than Isaih and Chauncey. Michael Jordan has stated many times that Joe D was his toughest defender. He had total package..drive, shoot three, post up, and defense. Chaunceys game mirrors Joe D more than Zeke. Does WP measure defense?
I read over and over and over again about how Isiah Thomas wasn’t any good because of this statistic or that that statistic – anybody who paid any attention to his career is aware that he put very little stock into stats – the only stat I ever remember him being concerned about was All Star votes – the Pistons won more games when his stats dropped. THAT is what differentiates him from guys like Iverson – who will forego the smart pass for the difficult one that will get him an assist. The 1980′s Pistons won two championships in what was arguably the most memorable and competitive decade in the history of the NBA. They are the only team without Magic, Jordan, or Bird on it to win a title (or 2) in the Magic, Jordan, & Bird era. Ask anyone who was even remotely aware of the NBA who the leader of that team was. Nobody in their right mind would say it was Joe Dumars. Hell, after they won the second title, Laimbeer flat out said “Nothing against Joe but we wanted Isiah to win this MVP. This is Isiah’s team”. The guy scored 25 in the 4th quarter of game 6 of the finals with a broken ankle, bloody eye, ingrown toenail, and receeding hairline, not to mention the fact that he was the shortest player on either team by 3 inches, and the reaction is to say that he hurt the team by playing in the next game? I don’t care what his numbers were from the field, and I don’t care if Joe Dumars could have stopped God from scoring, Isiah Thomas was the heart and soul of that franchise – and he led them to two titles in arguably the most competitive era in the history of the league. Billup’s Pistons wouldnt have gotten out of the Eastrern conference in that era. A big part of the Bad Boys legacy lies in their ability to win without anybody boasting gaudy individual statistics, and in Thomas ability to lead them to those titles.
I can’t believe someone had the nerve to say in 1988, Isiah Thomas only had one good game inb that series.
In Game 1, 19 points, 11 assists and five steals as the Pistons won. In Game 3, game high 28 points before injuring his back.
In Game 4 he had a triple double when he hadn’t practiced for that game. In Game 5, 15 points the day after his sone was born.
Isiah missed practices for Games 4,5 and 7 because of injuries and the birthy of his son.
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