Two years ago the Houston Rockets posted a 5.2 efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), won 52 games, and were bounced in the first round of the 2007 playoffs.  Last year the Rockets won 55 games with a 5.0 efficiency differential, and again the team lost in the first round.

After two “good” seasons that weren’t “good” enough, the Rockets made a move that was designed to transform Houston into a legitimate title contender.  Last August the Rockets sent three players to the Sacramento Kings for Ron Artest.  Here is how the move was described by John Hollinger, J.A. Adande, and Ron Artest:

John Hollinger (Artest makes it a trio, boosting the Rockets’ offense, title hopes):

The big idea is that Artest, between his scoring and his underrated playmaking skills, will add enough offense to get Houston well into the upper half of the league in offensive efficiency. From there, the Rockets’ suffocating D – with Artest adding yet another stopper to the mix – can accomplish the rest. If it comes to fruition, Houston could find itself hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy next June.

J.A. Adande (From the edge, Artest gives Rockets a missing element):

Go ahead and group the Rockets with the Hornets and Spurs – not just because they’re in the same division, but because they can legitimately challenge the Lakers for their Western Conference crown.

Ron Artest (Rockets agree to send pick, Greene, Jackson to Kings for Artest):

“Boston kind of blitzed the whole league with that trio they have. To pretty much compete for a championship, you need a trio and some great role players. I guess if it’s McGrady, Yao and Artest … I’ll let everybody else do the math.”

Rockets Math

Last summer I did some math and concluded that this move really didn’t make the Rockets much better.  Now that the Rockets have played 32 games this season, we can do even more math.  And again, it’s hard to see how the Rockets are now championship contenders.

In 2007-08 the Rockets scored 103.7 points per 100 possessions while allowing 98.6.  This season the Rockets are scoring 104.0 points per 100 possessions while allowing 100.1.  So their offensive efficiency is about the same while their defense has worsened a bit. Consequently, their efficiency differential has declined to 3.9.  In simple words, Houston is not quite what the team was last year.   

When we look at the performance of Houston’s players we see can trace the team’s small decline to specific individuals. 

Table One: The Houston Rockets after 32 games in 2008-09

Specifically – as Table One indicates — Brent Barry, Carl Landry, and Chuck Hayes are offering less in 2008-09.  If these players – and the others employed by Houston — maintained their 2007-08 production this team could be on pace to win 58 games.  Such a mark is consistent with an efficiency differential of about 6.8. 

Currently the three teams who are serious contenders for the 2009 championship have the following differentials (as of Monday night):

Cleveland Cavaliers: 13.6 efficiency differential

Boston Celtics: 11.3 efficiency differential

LA Lakers: 9.9 efficiency differential

So even if Houston’s players were doing what they did in 2007-08, the Rockets would still lag far behind the real contenders.

What of Artest? Continue reading →

Chris Broussard – in the December 29 issue of ESPN the Magazine – noted that a number of expensive NBA contracts signed last summer have not paid off this fall (the article – which I can’t find on-line — is on page 71 of the print edition).  Included in Broussard’s list were the contracts paid to Elton Brand, Luol Deng, Baron Davis, Gilbert Arenas, and Monta Ellis.  Each of these players is either below average in 2008-09 or hasn’t actually played.  So at this point, one could have an issue with the nearly $400 million guaranteed to these five.

If Broussard would have confined his story to this quintet, then his article would have been on fairly solid ground (a bit quick with the assessment, though). But Broussard couldn’t stop himself.  To these five he also decided to add the names of Andre Iguodala, Andrew Bogut, and Emeka Okafor.   

According to Broussard, Iguodala is having the worst season of his career. Certainly Iguodala’s scoring numbers are down.  But his rebounds and assists are up.  And when we look at WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minute] we see only a small decline.  Last year Iguodala’s WP48 was 0.172 while this year it is 0.170. In sum, Iguodala is not responsible for the problems in Philadelphia this season.

Bogut and Okafor Score Less and Produce More

A similar story is seen with respect to Bogut and Okafor.  Before I get to that story, I should note that I commented on each player’s deal last summer (see The Bogut Economy and Okafor Finally Signs). At the time I noted that both players were above average, but Okafor has consistently been better (at least on a per-minute basis).

When we look at the numbers from this year we again see that each player is above average.  And Okafor is again offering more.  But contrary to what Broussard contends, each player has actually improved. 

Table One: Andrew Bogut and Emeka Okafor in 2008-09

As Table One indicates, both players – like Iguodala – are scoring less.  Consequently it’s not surprising to see Broussard – who has a history of focusing on scoring — conclude that each player is actually less productive.  When we look past scoring, though, we see each player is offering more.  Bogut has improved with respect to shooting efficiency and rebounds.  Okafor’s rebounding numbers are down, but his shooting efficiency is much better.

The Better Bucks

When we look at Wins Produced we can see what these players mean to their respective teams.  Let’s start with Bogut.

Bogut – as Table Two indicates – is Milwaukee’s most productive player.  Despite his new contract, though, he’s not the highest paid player on this team.  Even after his new contract kicks in next year, his pay will still lag behind the compensation of Richard Jefferson and Michael Redd.  Not surprisingly, Jefferson and Redd lead the Bucks in points scored per game.  But both players are below average with respect to WP48 (and this was true last year as well).

Table Two: Milwaukee Bucks after 31 games in 2008-09

Before moving on to Okafor, let’s quickly note that the Bucks have improved in 2008-09.  Given what the players have done in the past the Bucks should have expected to be on pace to win 26 games this year (what they won last year).  The performance of this team this year, though, is consistent with a team that will win about half their games.

About one-third of this improvement can be tied to the play of Bogut.  Although Bogut has taken a step forward, the biggest leap can be seen in the play of Luke Ridnour.  Ridnour’s WP48 was 0.125 as a starter in Seattle in both 2004-05 and 2005-06.  When Ridnour stopped starting on a regular basis, though, his performance fell into below average territory.  This season he has been returned to the starting line-up and his WP48 has risen to 0.147.

In addition to Ridnour and Bogut, the Bucks are also getting an above average performance from Ramon Sessions and a nearly average performance from Luc Mbah a Moute.  Each of these players was a recent second round selection.  Their play suggests that someone in Milwaukee knows something about drafting players.  Then again, these same people selected Joe Alexander and Yi Jianlian in the first round.  Both of these players have been below average NBA players, so maybe Milwaukee still has some issues in its scouting department.

The Charlotte Duo

Okay, enough about Milwaukee.  Let’s look at Charlotte.

Table Three: Charlotte Bobcats after 31 games in 2008-09

Although Charlotte has only won 11 of its first 31 games, the team’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) of -2.33 is consistent with a team that will win 35 games this year.  In other words, Charlotte is not far behind Milwaukee. Continue reading →

So far I have posted analysis of 14 teams during the current season.  For those wondering who has been examined (and who has yet to be examined) I created the following page: NBA Mid-Season Analysis: 2008-09

As I have noted before, my work on the next book is restricting my posting Sunday, Tuesday, and Thursday nights (except for major holidays).  In choosing a team to examine I look at the teams

a. that I have not covered, and

b. are not playing on the night I am posting.

So given Sunday’s schedule of games, it looks like the next NBA post can examine one of the following teams: Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Bobcats, Chicago Bulls, Houston Rockets, Milwaukee Bucks, New Jersey Nets, Portland Trail Blazers, San Antonio Spurs, or Washington Wizards. 

On Tuesday night my choices are restricted to the Chicago Bulls, Denver Nuggets, Houston Rockets, LA Lakers, and New Jersey Nets.

There are no games scheduled for next Thursday (New Years Day). So the subject of the post for that night is wide open.

If you have any strong preferences, please let me know.  I can’t guarantee I will follow a good suggestion, but I certainly appreciate the help.

Hopefully this second book will be finished soon.  And then I will get back to posting more frequently (I hope).  As always, thanks for stopping by and making this forum a part of your day.

- DJ

One-third of the 2008-09 season has been completed.  And three teams – the Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, and LA Lakers – have risen to the top.  Although the majority of the season still remains to be played, it seems likely that the eventual NBA champion will come from this trio (and thankfully, it’s certainly no longer the case that the Lakers are the clear favorite). 

We can expect as the season continues to unfold that more and more attention will be paid to this threesome.  But there are 27 other franchises in the Association.  And of these 27, one might wonder which one is the most deserving of a little bit more attention?  In other words, which team is currently the “best of the rest”?

For an answer we turn to efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency).  Before we get to the identity of the fourth best team, let’s first note which teams do not currently hold the title “best of the rest” (as of the games played Monday night):

• The New Orleans Hornets might have the most productive player in the game in Chris Paul. But they are only ranked 5^th in differential.
• The 6^th ranked team is one that many thought would contend for a title in 2009. But the Houston Rockets currently rank far behind the top trio in the league.
• Last year the Utah Jazz ranked 4^th in differential. Injuries, though, have caused the Jazz to fall to 10^th in the league (behind Portland, Denver, and San Antonio in the Western Conference).

Howard and the Magic

To find the “best of the rest” we have to look outside the West and think about Superman and the Magic Kingdom.  Yes, the team currently ranked fourth in efficiency differential is the Orlando Magic.

After 28 games the Orlando have a 6.7 efficiency differential.  In some years such a mark would mean the Magic would be considered clear contenders for the title.  But Cleveland, Boston, and the Lakers currently post differentials of 14.3, 11.2, and 9.5 respectively.  Although these numbers might decline some as the season progresses (then again, maybe they won’t), it seems unlikely the gap between the Magic and the top three will close.  Nevertheless, as Table One indicates, the Magic are on pace to win 58 games. So although this team might not win a title in 2009, Orlando is still having a very good season.

Table One: The Orlando Magic in 2008-09

When we look at the individual players, we can see the source of these wins.  Obviously the most productive player on the Magic is Dwight Howard.  Howard is currently on pace to produce 25 wins this season or 44% of the team’s total.  In other words, Howard is a contender for Most Productive Player (he currently ranks behind Chris Paul and LeBron James).

The Main Sidekick

Although Howard is the clear leader in Orlando, he’s not a one man team. The second fiddle on this team is Rashard Lewis. 

No, that’s not right.  Lewis – who appears to be logging most of his minutes at power forward – is actually below average (because he appears to be logging most of his minutes at power forward). 

How about Hedo Turkoglu? Turkoglu was the second most productive player last season. This season, though, Turkoglu has also become a below average performer (following a pattern where every other season he is below average).

Okay, if it’s not Lewis or Turkoglu, who is Howard’s primary sidekick? Continue reading →

Apparently Kevin McHale fears blogger power:

“I think you’re going to see more and more shorter term stuff in our league,” he (McHale) said. “Just because the access now, there’s so much media availability and everything else.”

“There’s just so many bloggers; everybody’s got an opinion. There’s all kinds of stuff going on. Sometimes that starts forming the opinion of people in front offices, too, and owner. It’s been kind of a crazy year so far.”

Looking back, McHale has been the subject of quite a few posts offered in this blog.

Is Minnesota the Worst NBA Franchise in the History of the League? August 12, 2008

Missing and Missing and Missing in Minnesota April 15, 2008

T-Wolves Minus Garnett Equals the Worst NBA Team December 10, 2007

George Costanza, Danny Ainge, and Are the Timberwolves Better off Without Garnett? August 7, 2007

An Inconsistent Consistency Story March 22, 2007

But You Are Consistent March 19, 2007

The Timberwolves Change Coaches January 24, 2007

The Mayor Comes to Minnesota’s Front Office September 16, 2006

Despite this attention – which hasn’t been very kind – McHale is still an employee of the Minnesota Timberwolves. This suggests that

• McHale is wrong about the power of bloggers
• McHale is right about the power of bloggers, but this blog isn’t very powerful
• McHale is wrong about the power of bloggers, and this blog isn’t very powerful

Looking at the Last Major Decision

My sense is that point #3 is correct.  Despite the powerlessness of this blog, I thought I would spend some time re-visiting McHale’s last major decision as a general manager.

On draft night McHale traded the draft rights to O.J. Mayo (and a few other players) to the Memphis Grizzlies for Kevin Love and Mike Miller (and a few other players).  At the time this trade was made I noted that I thought McHale got the better of the deal.  After 26 games this year, though, the T-Wolves have only won four games while the Grizzlies have a record of 9-17. 

So did McHale make another mistake?  Did I say something that was wrrrrrrr…., not correct?

As always, let’s look at some numbers.

Table One: The Minnesota Timberwolves after 26 games in 2008-09

Table One reports the standard perspectives on a team.  First we have what the team could have expected given what the players did last year.  Then we have what these players have done this year.  As one can see, there is a clear difference.  The Timberwolves are actually a bit better this year than their record indicates. Given the team’s efficiency differential and corresponding Wins Produced this season, Minnesota should have won six to seven games.  And if we look at what these players did last year, Minnesota should have won 12 to 13 games so far this season.

When we look at the performance of the individual players we can see what happened.  Heading into this season it was believed that Al Jefferson, Mike Miller, and Kevin Love were going to be above average performers.  Looking at the numbers we see this expectation confirmed.  Unfortunately, the remainder of the roster has been awful. Six players have played more than 100 minutes and posted a WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] in the negative range.  And leading this pack is Ryan Gomes.

When we look at the individual stats, we can see where Gomes has come up short.

Table Two: Evaluating Al Jefferson, Kevin Love, and Ryan Gomes

As Table two indicates – with the exception of turnovers and personal fouls – Gomes has been below average with respect to every box score statistic.  In contrast, Jefferson has been above average with respect to everything except steals.  Love’s game has problems, but his ability to rebound and avoid turnovers also translates into an above Win Score and WP48.

When we look at this roster it seems clear – at this point — that McHale didn’t make a mistake on draft day.  Heading into the draft Minnesota had one outstanding player.  After the draft the T-Wolves had three good players.  Unfortunately, the T-Wolves don’t have much else.  And consequently, Minnesota isn’t a very good team.

Memphis and Mayo

What about the Grizzlies?

Table Three: The Memphis Grizzlies after 26 games in 2008-09

Table Three reports the standard perspectives on Memphis.  Unlike what we saw with the T-Wolves, Memphis is about on target.  Given what the players did last we would expect Memphis to have seven victories thus far.  The player’s performance this year – thanks to the improved play of Mike Conley and Darko Milicic – translates into 8.9 Wins Produced. Consequently Memphis is on pace to win about 28 games this year.

More than 20% of these wins can be tied to the play of O.J. Mayo.  In fact, only Conley has produced more wins for Memphis.  Despite this overall level of productivity, though, Mayo is only about average on a per-minute basis.

Table Four: Evaluating OJ Mayo

When we look at the individual stats – reported in Table Four – we see that Mayo has been an above average scorer.  But with respect to every other statistics (except personal fouls), Mayo is below average.  Consequently, he has not yet developed into a “good” player. Continue reading →