Two years ago I placed third in the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown.  As I noted when the final results were announced, Justin Kubatko and I based our picks solely on the numbers.  The difference was that I only considered the quality of the teams (as measured by efficiency differential).  Kubatko considered both team quality and home-court advantage.  The different approaches did not matter most of the time.  But in one playoff series it proved decisive. 

Last year I was in the midst of my move from California to Utah.  So I had to sit on the sidelines as Kubatko took his second title.  Now that my family and I are settled into our new home in Utah I can once again participate in this contest (Kubatko, though, will not be participating).

Once again, here is my methodology.  For the most part I am considering two pieces of information:

• Efficiency Differential or Offensive Efficiency minus Defensive Efficiency.
• Home-court advantage.

In general, efficiency differential is all you need to know in choosing the favorite.  But if the teams are close, home-court advantage can make a difference.

With my approach outlined, let me briefly comment on each series in the first round. Continue reading →

Last week my sports economics class at Southern Utah University had a visit from Joe Price.  Joe is an assistant professor of economics at BYU.  More importantly – at least to readers in this forum – Joe is also one of the authors of the famous Price-Wolfers study.   Readers might recall that this was a study of racial bias among referees in the NBA (a paper you can still see on-line HERE).

Back in May of 2007, this paper was the subject of a front-page story in the New York Times (written by Alan Schwarz).  And it led to a substantial reaction from both the NBA and observers of the Association.

Two years ago this paper was presented at the Western Economic Association (in a session I helped organize and where I was officially the paper’s discussant).  At a meeting, though, you only get to hear 15 to 20 minutes on a paper.  Last week in class, though, Joe gave us a full hour.   And the extra time made it even clearer why this is a very good piece of research.

Re-Telling the Story

Although I think most economists who have read the paper agree with my assessment, the reaction of non-economists was not always positive.  In fact Joe began his presentation with the reaction of Charles Barkley (which you can still hear at the website of Justin Wolfers).  After the students got to hear the assessment of Sir Charles, Joe commenced with the explanation of this research. Continue reading →

A few days I was asked the following by Henry Abbott (of TrueHoop):

It’s possible he won’t qualify, but if he does come off the bench for more games than he starts, how crazy would I be to lobby for Joel Przybilla as sixth man of the year?

The Competition

To answer this question, we first need to figure out the identity of the competition.  Fortunately, Ian Thomsen of SI.com did a small survey (a very small survey) of advanced scouts and NBA Executives to determine the top candidates for each post-season award.  For the 6^th Man of the Year this group listed the following candidates:

1. Jason Terry

2. Travis Outlaw

3. Nate Robinson and Flip Murray

Now this award is chosen by the media, so none of the people Thomsen polled are actually going to determine this award.   Marc Stein, though, is a member of the media.  At ESPN.com he listed his candidates, and he generally concurs with Thomsen’s survey. The top name for Stein is Jason Terry.  And Stein also agrees that Outlaw, Robinson, and Murray are candidates.  But Stein also noted Lamar Odom, J.R. Smith, and Chris Andersen.   Of these names, Stein ranks Odom and Smith just behind Terry.

What do we see if we look at the numbers?  Again, the consensus from Thomsen and Stein seems to be that Terry is the favorite. When we look at Table One, we see that Terry – in terms of Position Adjusted Win Score per 48 minutes [PAWS48] – is above average.  This mark is almost entirely driven by Terry’s scoring.  With respect to the non-scoring aspects of the game we see that Terry is a below average rebounder and not truly outstanding in any other category.

Table One: Evaluating Various Candidates for the 2008-09 6^th Man of the Year Award

Although Terry is above average [with respect to PAWS48] other candidates look even better [with respect to PAWS48].  Of the players listed in Table One the top four – again, in terms of PAWS48 – begin with Chris Andersen, who is followed by Lamar Odom, Nate Robinson, and J.R. Smith.  Andersen and Odom are below average scorers, so it seems unlikely either would win this award (although to Stein’s credit, he mentioned both).  Robinson and Smith, though, are scorers.  And it appears both have done more than Terry, at least on a per-minute basis [and if we look at PAWS48]. 

The problem is that basketball players are often evaluated in terms of totals.  And when we think of totals – at least scoring totals – Terry is still tops. 

But what if we think of a different total?  What if we focus on Wins Produced totals?  Continue reading →

Back in December of 2007 I observed that Andrew Bynum – who was much maligned by Kobe Byrant and others during the summer of 2007 – had improved tremendously in 2007-08 (relative to what we saw from Bynum’s first two seasons).  In fact, per-minute Andrew Bynum was offering – in a sample of just 17 games — more than Kobe (an observation that led to much anger from Kobe’s fans).

After this post Bynum only appeared in 18 more games in 2007-08.  And this year an injury has again caused him to miss a significant number of games.  So although Bynum has been above average on a per-minute basis, his inability to stay on the court obviously diminishes his value.  Tonight, though, he’s supposed to return to action.  And so a post on the wonder that is Andrew Bynum seems appropriate.

But while Bynum has been sitting another Bynum – Will Bynum of the Detroit Pistons – has emerged.  And like Andrew in 2007-08, Will Bynum in 2008-09 is offering a level of production that surpasses (if only slightly) a future Hall-of-Fame player.  Consequently I want to devote this post to the Other Bynum.

Before we get to the Will Bynum story, let me briefly note the end of the Iverson era in Detroit.  Last November the Pistons sent Chauncey Billups to the Denver Nuggets for Allen Iverson.  At the time of this trade I noted that this trade would probably make the Nuggets better and the Pistons worse. Continue reading →

Yesterday Richard Goldstein – of the New York Times – reported that Marvin Webster has passed away at the age of 56.  For those unfamiliar with NBA history, Webster – a.k.a. the Human Eraser – led the Seattle Supersonics to the 1978 NBA Finals.  He then signed with the New York Knicks only to have injuries significantly limit his productivity.

In August of 2007 I posted the following two stories on Webster and the Sonics. 

The Story of the Human Eraser

How to Lose Your Best Player and Win a Title

These columns report that Webster was a top ten center (in Wins Produced) in 1977-78 and the leading producer on wins on a team that lost in the NBA Finals in seven games.  As noted, though, injuries curtailed both Webster’s productivity in New York and the memory people have of his game.   

For even more on this story I recommend a heart-wrenching review of Webster’s career and life by Peter Nussbaum at Supersonicsoul.

And there is even more from Andrew Feinstein at Denver Stiffs (Webster began his career with Denver in the ABA). Continue reading →