The San Antonio Spurs won the NBA title in 2003, 2005, and 2007.  Such a pattern suggests the Spurs are destined to win the title in 2009.  Currently, though, the team has 3.81 efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency).  And a quick review of the top 15 teams in efficiency differential in 2008-09 (as of April 6) suggests the Spurs are not one of the best teams in the NBA this season.

• Cleveland Cavaliers: 9.52
• Boston Celtics: 8.70
• Orlando Magic: 7.89
• Los Angeles Lakers: 7.63
• Portland Trail Blazers: 5.00
• Houston Rockets: 3.98
• Denver Nuggets: 3.85
• San Antonio Spurs: 3.81
• Utah Jazz: 3.41
• New Orleans Hornets: 2.20
• Phoenix Suns: 1.90
• Dallas Mavericks: 1.67
• Atlanta Hawks: 1.62
• Philadelphia 76ers: 0.58
• Miami Heat: 0.18

As we near the conclusion of the season, the top teams are the same quartet we have followed most of the year: Cleveland, Boston, Orlando, and the Lakers.  Given where these four teams stand, it appears – at least from these numbers — the Spurs title hopes in 2009 are unlikely to be realized.

The Spurs Today

And now “unlikely” has morphed into “virtually no chance” (not really sure these terms are that different, but let’s pretend they are). Manu Ginobili, who finished last season with the second highest Wins Produced of all shooting guards [and the highest Wins Produced per 48 minutes or WP48], has suffered an injury that has ended his 2008-09 season. Given Ginobili’s productivity, one might wonder what this injury does to the Spurs playoff hopes. Continue reading →

A few days ago David Biderman – of the Wall Street Journal – offered an examination of the history assists in the NBA (see The NBA’s Most Misleading Number).  This article led me to think a bit more about assisted baskets and NBA history.  And this is not just because I am quoted in the article. 

Before I get to what I was quoted saying in this article, let me offer this interpretation of NBA history.

Assisted History

The National Basketball Association – via a merger of the National Basketball League and the Basketball Association of American — came into existence in 1949.  If one looks back on that first season – via Basketball-Reference – one is struck by how little data was tracked.  The numbers we have to track the productivity of a player from the 1949-50 season consists of points scored, shooting efficiency (from the field and the line), assists, and personal fouls.  There is no data on rebounds, turnovers, steals, or blocked shots. So no data was tracked that would allow one to evaluated the impact a player had on gaining or maintaining possession of the ball.

Looking at the available data one wonders (at least I wonder) how it was decided to track these specific numbers.  Certainly one suspects – as we think is true today – that scoring dominated player evaluation in 1949.  So it’s understandable that people would record data on shooting efficiency and total points.  And personal fouls had to be tracked because of the rules of the game.

But why track assists?  If I was a reporter I might be inclined to track down someone familiar with the early history of the game.  But I am not a reporter (and this is just a blog) so let me just offer some speculation based on simple economics. 

Here are four basic propositions about the game of basketball in 1949. Continue reading →

Two years ago this was the question. Both the Memphis Grizzlies and Boston Celtics – the two teams with the worst records in the NBA – were dreaming of Greg Oden and Kevin Durant.  And accusations were flying that at least the Celtics were doing whatever they could to land one of these two talents.  Unfortunately, the lottery gods failed to smile on Memphis or Boston.  After the lottery balls stopped bouncing, neither team was able to land one of the top two slots in the draft. 

Boston and Memphis after the Lottery

Despite this misfortune, one could argue that both of these franchises did better – at least in 2007-08 — than the teams that won the lottery.  The Boston Celtics – who had the fifth choice in the 2007 draft – used that selection to trade for Ray Allen.  The acquisition of Allen led to the trade of Kevin Garnett, and in 2008 Garnett led the Celtics to the NBA championship.

An NBA championship remains a distant dream for Memphis fans.  The Grizzlies won only 22 games in 2006-07 and matched that record last year.  In 2008-09 the team has 20 victories after 74 games, so the team doesn’t appear to be any better (and in terms of efficiency differential it’s actually getting worse).  But if we focus just on the 2007-08 campaign, the Grizzlies did better in the draft than the two teams that actually ended up paying Oden and Durant.  With the fourth selection the Grizzlies took Mike Conley.  Conley finished last season with 1.5 Win Produced.  Although this level of production is quite low, it was actually more than twice the combined production of Durant and Oden.

This year Conley is even better.  After 74 games Conley has produced 6.7 wins (only Marc Gasol with 6.8 Wins Produced has more on the Grizzlies).  And with a WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] of 0.147, it appears the Conley is developing into a sold NBA player.

Despite Conley’s rookie year production (again, double what Oden and Durant did together) and his leap forward his sophomore campaign, one suspects most fans of Memphis would rather have Durant or Oden today. And the numbers – at least the Wins Produced numbers — agree.

Oden and Durant in 2007-08

It should be noted, again, that Durant and Oden didn’t offer much in 2007-08.  Obviously Oden offered nothing since he was hurt the entire season.  Durant did actually play. But despite being named Rookie of the Year and nearly being a unanimous choice for the All-Rookie team (selected by the coaches), Durant’s play – as detailed in Kevin Durant was not the Best Rookie — did not result in many wins.   When the season was over Durant had only produced 0.7 wins with a 0.012 WP48.

The initial returns on Durant and Oden contradicted the pre-draft hype.  And these returns also contradicted the college numbers these players posted (see Looking Back at the NBA Draft, Part Two). 

The sophomore years of these two players, though, remind us why teams were so anxious to acquire the services of of these two players.

Oden and Durant in 2008-09

Let’s start the 2008-09 story with Durant.

Table One: The Oklahoma City Thunder after 74 games in 2008-09

As Table One indicates, after 74 games the Thunder players have combined to produce 23.3 wins.  Of these, 9.6 of these Wins Produced can be credited to Kevin Durant. And his 0.178 WP48 suggests that Durant is now one of the better small forwards in the NBA.

Before we get to Oden, we should note that Jeff Green — the player the Thunder took with the Celtics 5^th pick in 2007 – has also improved.  Unfortunately, he’s still below average.  The below average story would also be told about most players in Oklahoma.  Once you get past Durant, of the eleven players who logged at least 500 minutes, only Nick Collison has been above average.  This is why, despite the play of Durant, the Thunder are still not very good.

A different story is told about the Portland Trail Blazers.  Portland is currently second to the Lakers in the Western Conference (albeit a distant second) in Efficiency Differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency).  When we look at the individual players – reported in Table Two – we can see why Portland is likely to win 50 games this year.

Table Two: The Portland Trail Blazers after 74 games in 2008-09

Like the Thunder, eleven Blazers have logged at least 500 minutes.  Unlike the Thunder, though, the majority of these Blazers – six to be exact – have posted above average WP48 marks (none of these are named LaMarcus Aldridge).  One of these above average players is Greg Oden.  Injuries have caused Oden to miss 21 games.  Despite missing nearly one-third of the season, Oden has produced 4.8 wins and posted a 0.199 WP48.

Answering the Question Today

So Oden and Durant are above average.  But let’s go back to the original question.  Who would a team rather employ today?  Continue reading →