The Detroit Pistons defeated the Orlando Magic in the 2008 Eastern Conference Semifinals.  Since this victory, each team has gone in very different directions.  The Magic advanced to the NBA Finals in 2009, and given the moves made this summer (moves I will discuss in a moment) should be even better in 2009-10.

Meanwhile, the Pistons have essentially blown up their roster.  At this moment, only four players – Tayshaun Prince, Richard Hamilton, Rodney Stuckey, and Jason Maxiell – remain from the team that advanced to the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals.  And the new players should hardly inspire confidence.  With the signing of Chris Wilcox, the first and second string on the Pistons (yes, I know I said this a few days ago, but I am a Pistons fan) is now as follows (with 2008-09 Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] reported for each veteran player): 

First Team:

PG: Rodney Stuckey [4.0 Wins Produced, 0.077 WP48]

SG: Richard Hamilton [1.9 Wins Produced, 0.040 WP48]

SF: Tayshaun Prince [7.3 Wins Produced, 0.114 WP48]

PF: Charlie Villanueva [3.6 Wins Produced, 0.082 WP48]

C: Kwame Brown [2.4 Wins Produced, 0.117 WP48]

Second Team:

PG: Will Bynum [1.2 Wins Produced, 0.071 WP48]

SG: Ben Gordon [4.9 Wins Produced, 0.078 WP48]

SF: Austin Daye [Rookie]

PF: Jason Maxiell [2.9 Wins Produced, 0.098 WP48]

C: Chris Wilcox [0.2 Wins Produced, 0.008 WP48]

If you add up the 2008-09 Wins Produced by the veteran players all you get is 28.4.  So unless Austin Daye is suddenly one of the top five players in the NBA – or these veterans become much more productive players — it looks like the Pistons are in trouble.  At a minimum, this team is far removed from the Orlando Magic.

To see this point, here is what the Magic’s first and second team looks like today (again, Wins Produced and WP48 are reported):

First Team:

PG: Jameer Nelson [7.0 Wins Produced, 0.256 WP48]

SG: Vince Carter [9.3 Wins Produced, 0.152 WP48]

SF: Rashard Lewis [3.5 Wins Produced, 0.060 WP48]

PF: Brandon Bass [1.9 Wins Produced, 0.057 WP48]

C: Dwight Howard [24.6 Wins Produced, 0.418 WP48]

Second Team:

PG: Anthony Johnson [2.2 Wins Produced, 0.071 WP48]

SG: J.J. Redick [1.0 Wins Produced, 0.041 WP48]

SF: Mickael Pietrus [1.3 Wins Produced, 0.048 WP48]

PF: Ryan Anderson [1.2 Wins Produced, 0.045 WP48]

C: Marcin Gortat [5.2 Wins Produced, 0.316 WP48]

If you add up the Wins Produced you see 57.2, or an average of 5.7.  This mark, though, understates the quality of the Magic. 

First of all, Nelson only played 42 games last season.  Had he played the entire season, and his per-minute performance didn’t change, he would have produced nearly seven more wins.

And then there is the case of Rashard Lewis.  Lewis spent most of his career as a small forward, but was moved to power forward by the Magic. The move, though, didn’t dramatically change his production.  Lewis posted a 9.8 Win Score per 48 [WS48] minutes with Seattle.  With the Magic in 2007-08 his WS48 was 9.6 and last year it was 9.8.  An average small forward posts a mark of 7.3, so was Lewis was above average in Seattle.  An average power forward, though, has a 10.3 WS48.  Consequently, Lewis was below average these past two seasons with Orlando.

The acquisition of both Bass and Anderson – coupled with the re-signing of Gortat – suggests Orlando is going to move Lewis back to small forward.  Had he played small forward last year, Lewis would have posted a 0.177 WP48.  If he can maintain that production next year – and the same holds true for Nelson, Carter, and Howard — then the Magic’s starting line-up next year will feature four players with a  WP48 mark in excess of 0.150. 

Now at this point, ESPN.com says the Magic’s roster only consists of the ten players listed above.  Not knowing the rest of the roster limits are ability to speculate about next season.  That being said, the Magic look very much improved. 

In fact, I think the Magic are at least twenty games better than the Pistons, and that margin could grow to more than thirty.  The Pistons could still make the playoffs next year.  But a more likely scenario is a trip we haven’t seen since 2001.  Yes, the Pistons could actually be visiting the lottery next year.

This means fans of the Pistons are becoming like fans of the Lions.  In other words, before the season even starts, thoughts turn to the next draft.  For those who can’t wait, DraftExpress has already posted a 2010 mock draft.  And judging by 2008-09 numbers, Cole Aldrich might be someone to keep an eye upon.  At least, his Wins Score per 40 minutes suggests he might be a productive NBA player (unlike many of the players currently employed by the Pistons).

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

Adrian Wojnarowski  — of Yahoo! Sports – is reporting that the LA Clippers are interested in signing Allen Iverson.   Why would The Answer be the answer for the Clippers?  Here is what Wojnarowski said:

The answer is as simple as it’s flawed: box office over basketball. The worst owner in sports, Donald T. Sterling, believes A.I. can do what No. 1 pick Blake Griffin has been thus far unable – sell tickets.

It has been well-documented in this forum that Iverson doesn’t produce as many wins as is generally believed.  For his career Iverson has produced 61.3 wins with a WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] of 0.080.  Average is 0.100, so Iverson has been generally a bit below average.  That being said, he did post marks above the 0.100 mark in 2007-08 [0.130 WP48], 2005-06 [0.121 WP48], 2004-05 [0.124 WP48], 1998-99 [0.128 WP48], and 1997-98 [0.135 WP48].  But he has never been able to go very far beyond average, which suggests either

a. Wins Produced is wrong about Iverson.

b. What people think about Iverson is wrong.

Given what happened to the Sixers after he left (they got better), or to the Nuggets after he left (they got better if you consider the loss of Marcus Camby), or to the Pistons when he arrived (they clearly got worse); it seems like (b) is the right answer.  But Iverson fans might think otherwise.

All that being said, at this point in time Iverson is 34 years old.  So even if you thought he was great once upon a time, you probably can’t think that anymore.  And that means the key reason to sign Iverson is that he might sell tickets.  But is that true?

Selling Tickets in the NBA

Both Denver and Detroit have recently added Iverson to their respective teams.  Here is what happened to home attendance before and after Iverson arrived (data taken from ESPN.com):

First, here is season home attendence for Denver:

2005-06: 702,645

2006-07: 706,437 (year Iverson arrived)

2007-08: 711, 962

2008-09: 706,165 (year Iverson departed)

And here is Detroit:

2007-08: 905, 116 (team is at capacity)

2008-09: 896, 971 (with Iverson team is not at capacity)

When we look at the attendance data we see a small increase when Iverson comes to Denver and a small decline when Iverson departs.  But the changes are quite small.

For Detroit, the change is not very large either, although when a team stops selling out every game it’s hard to conclude Iverson helped.  In other words, the Detroit experience suggests Iverson does not sell tickets (and it is hard to conclude he helped much in Denver).

Of course if you were to really look at the impact of a star player on a team’s performance at the gate you would have to do more than just stare at some numbers.  When one actually looks at what determines a team’s gate revenue (via regression analysis), one can see that the home gate is driven by wins, not star power (as detailed in The Wages of Wins).  Consequently, it seems likely that the reason given to sign Iverson (and this reason was given by both observers of the Clippers and the Memphis Grizzlies) is probably not very good.

By the way, Iverson probably does enhance a team’s road attendance.  Both Denver and Detroit saw their road attendance go up with Iverson.  And regression analysis does indicate that star power really matters on the road (as detailed in The Wages of Wins).   Unfortunately, gate revenue goes entirely to the home team.  So turning your team into a better attraction on the road is not a good financial decision either.

So Iverson is not that productive and he doesn’t really enhance a team’s gate revenue.  So should the Clippers (or Grizzlies) look elsewhere?

A Reason to Sign Iverson

If we look at these two specific teams the answer is….. “maybe not.”

Here is what the guards the Clippers and Grizzlies have on their roster (this is the roster today) did last year [in terms of WP48].

The Clippers Guards

Mardy Collins: 0.027

Baron Davis: 0.051

Ricky Davis: -0.093

Eric Gordon: 0.048

Mike Taylor: -0.044

The Grizzlies Guards

Mike Conley: 0.154

Marko Jaric: -0.024

O.J. Mayo: 0.035

Quentin Richardson: 0.084

Of all these players, only Conley was above average last season.  So maybe an aging Iverson can help somewhat.  Of course he’s still old.  And probably too expensive.  But these teams don’t really have an abundance of more productive choices currently on the roster.

So it looks like I am saying…

1. Iverson is not as productive as most people think.

2. He really doesn’t enhance a team’s home gate revenue.

3. But if you don’t have many other options he might help some.

Of course I am avoiding the whole chemistry issue.  In general I think “chemistry” is an over-used term in sports.  Furthermore, does anyone really think the Clippers and Grizzlies would have great “chemistry” if Iverson wasn’t there?  Let’s face it.  These are both bad teams.  Such teams tend to have bad “chemistry”.  And that’s because “bad chemistry” is really just another way of saying “bad team.” 

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

Judging by the reaction to my last post, if you tell fans of a team that there is little hope more than three months before the season even starts, those fans are going to become unhappy.  Unfortunately, the story I told about the Raptors is not unique. And to illustrate this point I thought I would talk briefly about the team that I have followed all my life, the Detroit Pistons.

The Pistons Today

John Kuester has become the 6^th head coach hired by Joe Dumars.  As Kuester makes his move to the Motor City he faces a choice: Should he rent or buy? 

For a number of reasons, renting seems like the way to go.  First of all, the housing market in Detroit is lousy.  But beyond that issue is the past history of Dumars.  Dumars has fired successful coaches.  He has been even quicker to fire unsuccessful coaches.  This suggests that Kuester is not going to last in Detroit.

Beyond what Dumars had done to coaches in the past, though, is the roster Dumars has assembled.  Here is the team’s current first and second units, with 2008-09 Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] reported for each veteran player. 

First Team:

PG: Rodney Stuckey [4.0 Wins Produced, 0.077 WP48]

SG: Richard Hamilton [1.9 Wins Produced, 0.040 WP48]

SF: Tayshaun Prince [7.3 Wins Produced, 0.114 WP48]

PF: Charlie Villanueva [3.6 Wins Produced, 0.082 WP48]

C: Kwame Brown [2.4 Wins Produced, 0.117 WP48]

Second Team:

PG: Will Bynum [1.2 Wins Produced, 0.071 WP48]

SG: Ben Gordon [4.9 Wins Produced, 0.078 WP48]

SF: Austin Daye [Rookie]

PF: Jason Maxiell [2.9 Wins Produced, 0.098 WP48]

C: ????

When we look over this roster we see that the player with the highest WP48 from last year was Kwame Brown.  And he was only slightly above average (average WP48 is 0.100).  Overall, six of the eight veterans on this team were actually below average last year.

Coveting Big Baby?

And now we see the following from Marc Stein (of ESPN.com).

The early sense I get is that the Mavericks have little interest in using their midlevel exception — which is back in their possession after Orlando confirmed its intention to match a five-year, $34 million offer to Gortat — to play the restricted free-agent game again with Boston’s Glen Davis.

Detroit, by contrast, really covets Big Baby, whose modest $711,517 salary last season didn’t stop him from stepping in admirably for the injured Kevin Garnett in the playoffs. The Pistons’ problem is that their offer can start in only the $3 million range compared with $5.9 million in Dallas’ case, raising the obvious fear that the rival Celtics could tie up the Pistons’ money for seven days and then match.

Last year Glen Davis produced -2.0 wins and posted a -0.058 WP48.  So Davis – if he came to Detroit – could actually be the least productive player on a team of (mostly) below average performers.

Stein argues, though, that although the Pistons “really covet” Davis, they are not likely to get him.  So Dumars might be forced to look elsewhere.  One possibility – suggested by A. Sherrod Blakely of MLive.com – is that Dumars will bring back Ben Wallace.  Big Ben produced 5.4 wins last season with a 0.198 WP48.  But he will also be 35 years of age before the season starts and unlikely to play more than 20 minutes a night.  Consequently, Wallace probably can’t help much.

If we put the whole picture together, it becomes clear that whether the team has Davis or Wallace, this is simply not a very good team (and that’s also true if they sign Drew Gooden, although a trade for Carlos Boozer would really help).  At least, that’s the picture painted by Wins Produced.

Channeling Isiah

If we focus on scoring, though, another story is told.  Stuckey, Hamilton, Villanueva, Bynum, and Gordon are all above average scorers.  Such a collection of scorers suggests that Dumars might now be channeling his inner-Isiah.  Back in 2004 the Pistons won an NBA title with a leading scorer (Richard Hamilton) only averaging 17.6 points per game.  Meanwhile, Isiah was building a team of scorers in New York that kept missing the playoffs.

When we look at the team Dumars is currently assembling, one suspects that Isiah called his former back-court mate and said: “you know, a team of scorers really should win in the NBA.  In New York we didn’t have the right chemistry. But I know you can create the right atmosphere in Detroit for this idea to work.  Really.”

Unfortunately for fans of the Pistons (and I am one of these), the Isiah model really doesn’t work.  So the team Dumars has assembled is probably going struggle next year.  The veterans currently on the roster only produced 28.2 wins last season.  So even if Austin Daye is amazing and the team signs Wallace (and he is still productive), this team is still going to struggle to reach 40 wins (again, trading for Boozer might change this forecast some). 

That means the Pistons probably miss the playoffs.  And when that happens, Kuester will probably go back to being an assistant for another head coach in another city. 

So it looks like Kuester needs to rent.  And given this roster, Dumars might start hoping the housing market in Detroit starts to improve; because if the Pistons don’t get back to the playoffs soon, Dumars might also follow Kuester out of town.

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

There are 29 cities who currently host at least one NBA team.  Of these, only 15 have ever witnessed an NBA title.   And if we focus on life in the NBA since 1980, we see only eight teams winning an NBA title (Lakers, Celtics, 76ers, Pistons, Bulls, Rockets, Spurs, and Heat).  Such a record suggests that the NBA is not competitively balanced (which is true).  It also suggests that fans of most NBA teams don’t have much hope of seeing playoff glory in the near future.

Despite this record, though, hope does spring eternal in July.  Fans look at the players their favorite team has drafted, and the veteran “stars” the team has acquired, and suddenly dreams of playoff glory spring to life.

And then some cynical economist has to come along and dash the whole dream to hell.  Well, at least that’s going to be true today for fans of the Toronto Raptors.

The Raptors Set a Record

In terms of efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency), the 2007-08 edition of the Toronto Raptors was the best in franchise history (really).  The team’s differential of 3.1 translated into a 48.9 Wins Produced.  The team, though, only won 41 games. Consequently the Raptors didn’t appear to be as good as their differential suggested.

As a result, changes to the roster were made.  The primary departures included Carlos Delfino [6.6 Wins Produced, 0.165 Wins Produced per 48 minutes or WP48], T.J. Ford [4.0 Wins Produced, 0.160 WP48], and Rasho Nesterovic [3.2 Wins Produced, 0.104 WP48].  These players combined to produce 13.8 wins in 2007-08.  So if the team just wanted to maintain what we saw two years ago – assuming the returning players maintained their production (and overall they came close) — it needed to find players who could produce nearly 14 wins.  

Unfortunately when we look at the eleven players added to the Raptors for the 2008-09 season, all we see are 1.5 wins.  Of these eleven, only five – Shawn Marion [3.3 Wins Produced, 0.168 WP48], Jermaine O’Neal [0.6 Wins Produced, 0.023 WP48], Pops Mensah-Bonsu [0.4 Wins Produced, 0.071 WP48], Will Solomon [0.3 Wins Produced, 0.028 WP48], and Quincy Douby [0.3 Wins Produced, 0.172 WP48] – managed to finish with a Wins Produced mark in the positive range.  And yes, that means six new players were in the negative range.

Because the Raptors failed to replace the productivity of their departing talent, the team’s fortunes fell.  When the 2008-09 season ended, the Raptors had only won 33 games and their team’s efficiency differential was a -3.0.   When we turn to Wins Produced, we see a team mark of 33.5.  Most of these, though, could be linked to the play of the following four individuals: Jose Calderon [12.4 Wins Produced, 0.255 WP48], Chris Bosh (10.9 Wins Produced, 0.179 WP48], Jamario Moon [6.0 Wins Produced, 0.210 WP48], and Anthony Parker [5.4 Wins Produced, 0.097 WP48].

Moon departed in the trade that brought the team Shawn Marion. And Parker has now departed in the trade that cost the team Shawn Marion. This means that the only significant producers of wins the Raptors are retaining from the 2007-08 and 2008-09 teams are Calderon and Bosh.  And these players only produced 23.3 wins last season.

Obviously to be a playoff contender you need more than 23.3 wins. But who else is going to produce wins?

Rebuilding the Raptors?

Here are the primary players the team has added so far (with what the player did last year reported):

Hedo Turkoglu [6.7 Wins Produced, 0.115 WP48]

Antoine Wright [-2.7 Wins Produced, -0.083 WP48]

Reggie Evans [2.6 Wins Produced, 0.108 WP48]

Of these, Wright is the least helpful and Turkoglu the most famous.  In a move that dashed some hope in Portland, Toronto “stole” Turkoglu with a contract that will pay the former Magic player more than $10 million per season (and one wonders if the NBA Finals impacted that contract).  For his career, Turkoglu has produced 41.4 wins with a 0.105 WP48.  Average WP48 is 0.100.  So Turkoglu has been essentially average across his career.  And now he is 30 years of age (not a good age for an NBA player) and will turn 31 before the next season ends (an even worse age for an NBA player).  The career production of Evans is similar (41.9 Wins Produced) to Turkoglu, but because he has played fewer minutes his career WP48 is 0.200.  But Evans was not nearly that good last year, and he is still just a reserve in the frontcourt (so his minutes will be limited).

The starters in the frontcourt will be Bosh and Bargnani. The latter just signed a lucrative extension, despite the fact he is the least productive number one pick in the lottery era.  Bargnani did improve last season, but he still hasn’t had a season with a Win Produced mark in the positive range.  The odd incentives of the NBA, though, mean that Bargnani’s inability to produce did help the Raptors land another lottery pick in 2009 draft.  DeMar DeRozan, though, was not very productive in college last season.  So it’s not likely (although certainly possible) he will help much in 2009-10.

Not a Pretty Picture in Toronto

When we put the whole picture together, it appears the Raptors will employ the following starting line-up in 2009-10: Calderon (PG), Wright and/or DeRozan (SG), Turkoglu (SF), Bosh (PF), Bargnani [C].  Last season the NBA veterans in this line-up combined to produce fewer than 30 wins. So unless these players improve dramatically, or the team finds very productive players off the bench, it’s hard to see how this team improves dramatically.  And that’s true even if Delfino returns to Toronto (although if Evans returns to what we saw in the past there might be some hope this team can get past 40 wins).

All of this means that

1. Turkoglu will be seeing much more money in 2009-10, but probably far fewer wins.
2. Bargnani will also see much more money, but it seems unlikely he is ever going to produce many wins.
3. Bosh will see even more money after this next season, but if the Raptors don’t approach 45 or 50 wins (which seems likely) then it seems unlikely that the money Bosh is paid in the future is going to be paid by the Raptors.
4. So it looks likely the Raptors record performance in 2007-08 will stand for awhile.  In other words, if Bosh departs this team in 2010, then rebuilding will probably continue beyond 2009-10.
5. And this means — assuming the Raptors don’t make any major change to this team — the fans of the Raptors will keep paying money to see a team that’s not contending for a title.

Of course, a similar story can be told for many of the teams and cities that have yet to win an NBA title.  And I suspect – given my cynical nature – similar posts will be written about a few of these teams in the coming weeks and months.

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

The Dallas Mavericks finished the 2008-09 season with a 2.1 efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency).  Although such a mark surpasses anything done by the Clippers in their time in Los Angeles (or San Diego or Buffalo), it was the worst performance by the Mavericks since the 1999-00 season.  In other words, it was the worst performance by the Mavericks since Mark Cuban bought the team.

In the playoffs the Mavericks did manage to escape the first round.  But that was primarily because Manu Ginobili was not able to play for the Spurs.  Once the Mavericks moved on to the second round they were quickly eliminated by the Denver Nuggets in five games. Such a performance suggested changes would have to be made to the Mavericks roster if this team was going to return to the ranks of the NBA contenders. 

One of these moves was the signing of Quinton Ross, who produced -0.6 wins last year. Such a move probably does not help the Mavericks in 2009-10.   Fortunately for Dallas fans, the Mavericks made three other moves that should help this team return to the ranks of NBA championship contenders.  At least, that’s what you would conclude if you believe Wins Produced.

1. First the Mavericks re-signed Jason Kidd, giving him more than $25 million to stay in Dallas.  Kidd is now 36 years old, which is very ancient by NBA standards.  But he did produce 21 wins last year with a 0.349 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes].  Such production suggests Kidd will help next year.

2. With Kidd retained, the Mavericks then signed Marcin Gortat to an offer sheet (that the Orlando Magic is not expected to match).  Gortat produced 5.2 wins in only 794 minutes last year.  So his WP48 was 0.316, or more than three times what we see from an average NBA player.

3. And now the Mavericks have engineered a very complicated trade to bring Shawn Marion to Dallas.  Marion ranked among the top 10 in Wins Produced each season from 2000-01 to 2006-07, taking the very top spot in 2000-01.  Last season, though, his performance drifted well below his career averages.  In 2,470 minutes he produced 10.0 wins.  His WP48 of 0.193 was above average, but hardly comparable to what Marion did before he reached 30 years of age.  Although Marion is not what he used to be, he still had a WP48 mark beyond anything offered by the small forwards and power forwards employed by the Mavericks this past season.

Putting these moves together and we see a potential rotation consisting of the following nine players.

Jason Kidd: 21.0 Wins Produced, 0.349 WP48

Josh Howard: 2.0 Wins Produced, 0.057 WP48

Shawn Marion: 10.0 Wins Produced, 0.193 WP48

Dirk Nowitzki: 8.1 Wins Produced, 0.127 WP48

Erick Dampier: 8.9 Wins Produced, 0.232 WP48

Jose Barea: 2.2 Wins Produced, 0.065 WP48

Jason Terry: 4.8 Wins Produced, 0.092 WP48

Quinton Ross: -0.6 Wins Produced, -0.025 WP48

Marcin Gortat: 5.2 Wins Produced, 0.316 WP48

Last year these nine players produced 61.4 wins.  And next year these totals should go higher if Gortat plays more minutes.  So it looks like Dallas should contend next year.

What is interesting, though, is that this is not the story told by adjusted plus-minus.  Adjusted plus-minus is the metric brought to the world by Wayne Winston and Jeff Sagarin, via the funding of Mark Cuban.  According to BasketballValue.com, though, Gortat has a two-year measure of -2.46.  And Marion has a two-year mark of 1.58.  Neither mark is outstanding, suggesting that the Mavericks have gone to a great deal of effort to add players that are not immensely productive.

So this leads one to wonder, why did Dallas pursue these players?  It looks like they are building a Wages of Wins team.  But that just can’t be true.  Can it?

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.