The Memphis Grizzlies, as I have told Chip Crain of 3 Shades of Blue, are the Detroit Lions of the NBA. Like the NFL team I follow, the Grizzlies have an owner that tells the fans that winning is important. At the same time, though, this same owner takes actions (or inactions) that contradict the stated desire to field a winner. Consequently, the results in Memphis and Detroit are quite similar.
The Grizzlies completed their 14th season in 2008-09. In all but three of these seasons, the Grizzlies have failed to win 30 games. Even when the team had a winning record, it failed to surpass 50 regular season victories and the Grizzlies are still waiting to win their first post-season game.
The 2008-09 season was quite consistent with this history. Memphis finished with 24 wins, 24 games behind the 8th seed in the playoffs. When we look at the how the team’s players performed, we can see who was responsible for this outcome (other than the owner, of course):
Table One: The Memphis Grizzlies in 2008-09
An average NBA player posts a 0.100 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. Last season Memphis employed three above average players: Mike Conley [0.135 WP48], Kyle Lowry [0.114 WP48], and Hamed Haddadi [0.270 WP48]. Lowry finished the season in Houston and Haddadi was on the bench for all but 120 minutes. This means the Grizzlies finished the season with only one above average player who actually played on a regular basis. And Conley was not very far beyond average.
Looking at the history of the players Memphis employed on 2008-09 reveals that the final results were unsurprising. Of all the players who played 1,000 minutes or more in Memphis last season, Lowry was the only player who had ever posted an above average mark in his career prior to last season. And once again, Lowry wasn’t with Memphis when the season ended.
With the end of each season, though, hope springs eternal. The Grizzlies have once again been granted an entire summer to build a winner. And now that September is about to begin, it seems like a good time to evaluate this team’s progress. As of right now, here is the depth chart in Memphis (WP48 from 2008-09 at the position listed reported):
First String
PG: Mike Conley (0.135)
SG: O.J. Mayo (0.054)
SF: Rudy Gay (0.049)
PF: Zach Randolph (0.163)
C: Marc Gasol (0.093)
Second String
PG: Marcus Williams [0.067 WP48 in 2007-08]
SG: Marko Jaric (-0.005)
SF: DeMarre Carroll (rookie)
PF: Darrel Arthur (0.032)
C: Hasheem Thabeet (rookie)
When we look at this depth chart we see that the population of above average Grizzlies has at least doubled. That’s progress, but probably not enough. In the Western Conference this team shouldn’t expect to make the playoffs. But it might win more than 30 games.
To make this happen it would help if Thabeet could be an above average performer. Of the players selected out of college on draft night, Thabeet was one of the most productive players last season. So it’s possible that he will be a productive NBA player his first season. If that happens, the Grizzles have potentially three above average players (Randolph, Gasol, and Thabeet) in the frontcourt. Not only could these players help with their own production, they also might push Rudy Gay permanently into the small forward slot. Gay is not a great small forward, but he’s a very poor power forward. So keeping him out of the four spot is a plus.
Looking at the backcourt… the starters are Conley and Mayo. Conley led the team in Wins Produced last season and he has a chance of repeating that ranking this next season (by itself, not a good sign). Mayo was selected by the coaches to the First Team All-Rookie team. His productivity, though, was inconsistent with that ranking. Nevertheless, young players can get better so it’s possible Mayo will do more next season.
There is talk of adding Allen Iverson to the back-court mix. Some have suggested that Iverson can substantially boost ticket sales. As I noted in July, I am skeptical of this story. If Iverson is going to help the Grizzlies he is going to have to produce on the court. But last season Iverson’s WP48 was only 0.037. So although he does a bit more than Marko Jaric, Iverson doesn’t appear to be an upgrade over Marcus Williams. At least, Williams did more when he got semi-regular minutes in 2007-08.
If we put all this together – with or without Iverson – this is not a playoff team and it’s unlikely this team will win 40 games. But it’s possible the Grizzlies could surpass the 30 win mark. Yes, that doesn’t sound like much. But this team has only reached that mark three times in its entire history. So for Memphis, 30 wins is an achievement.
So the Memphis Lions will continue in 2009-10. Let me close by noting, though, that there is one big difference between the Grizzlies and Lions. When we look at the players that will be employed by Memphis this next season it seems pretty clear that post-season basketball is not going to happen in Memphis in 2010. For the Lions, though, hope remains. The Lions have changed at least half their starting line-up from last season. Plus they have a host of new reserves and an entirely new coaching staff. Because football performance is so hard to predict, fans of the Lions can continue to hope for a few more days. Of course, a week from Sunday the Lions go to New Orleans and reality will begin to be established. And at that point, the Detroit Grizzlies may indeed appear.
Then again…. last season, Drew Brees and the Saints scored a touchdown the first six times they got the ball against Detroit. This year, it’s possible the Lions new defense can stop the Saints once or twice. And maybe Matthew Stafford (or Daunte Culpepper) will hook up with Calvin Johnson for two or three (or four or five) touchdowns and Kevin Smith will run wild. And then maybe, the Lions can keep this close and maybe….
Okay, football may be hard to predict but even I am having trouble maintaining this much hope. Still, I think the Lions are on the right path. As for the Grizzlies… well, the team is on a path. I am not sure, though, that this path is going to the playoffs any time soon.
- DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
“In the Western Conference this team should expect to make the playoffs.”
I think you meant “Shouldn’t.”
Thanks Rob. I fixed it.
I’d compare Grizzlies as the Memphis Bengals and the Lions as the Detroit Knicks.
I like this squad. There were times near the end of the season when Conley, Mayo and Gay lit some teams up (Dallas, Phoenix). They have serious speed. Whether they worked during the off-season to improve is the question. They should be fun to watch playing against some of the aging backcourts. If Thabeet can catch the ball and make layups/dunks they’ll competitive. We should see a better transition game this year, too. They still need to address quality depth.
Funny how everyone forgets how pathetic the Clippers are. Grizzlies arent the worst team in the nba but we sure arent the best either.
The Clippers should have been a .500 team last year, and if Al Thornton and Ricky Davis play as little as possible, they should be over .500 this year– possibly even pushing the playoff envelope. Baron Davis needs to produce at his historical levels and Rasual Butler looks to be the replacement for most of Thornton’s minutes– if Blake Griffin can be an above-average player, the Clippers will be much improved this season.
Shouldn’t it be try an roar, or am I reading the meaning wrong. Sorry if I am being a nerd.
It kind of makes you wonder why Haddadi being left to ride the pine. Also looking at that team roster the second unit looks woeful, which is why I guess they’ve made an offer to AI. Is there any chance of seeing the WP48 for Iverson’s earlier years? Was his production in WP terms significantly lower last year, or was it much the same at the Nuggets and 76ers?
I believe that for his career Iverson has hovered around average. Sometimes above, sometimes below, and last year was a bad year for him.
This is the first time I have stumbled upon your website. I am not convinced your wins-produced statistic is anything more than misleading. I understand you have explained what it tells you and what it does not; however, I believe the why the players are unproductive means much more than your reliance on the statistic suggests.
For example, Hadaddi being so productive us largely a product of his playing in late garbage minutes in the few games the Grizzlies actually have a distinct advantage.
Mayo and Gay are typically up against the most talented competition in the most important points in the game. When they are not, they are usually playing with a below average Grizzlies back up. They are required to try and make more with less resulting in missed shots and turnovers.
I can only assume Pau Gasol became a much more productive player when he left and went to to the Lakers.
My feeling is that the statistic gives slight evidence of a players productivity but that the probative value is outweighed by its potential to mislead.
That being said, I have not really investigated your entire website. These are just initial thoughts that are quite possibly totally off-base.
Also, I have nothing that would discount your conclusion that the Grizzlies are run similarly to the Lions; just my hunch is that your reasoning is not that supportive.
Also, your conclusion may be a little bit of comparing apples to oranges in that the NFL structure seems to leave must more room for parity and not as punishing of small market teams like the Grizzlies in the NBA. Totally different conversation altogether though.
Dustin
Actually the productivity of Pau Gasol hasn’t change after the trade to Lakers.
05-06 .217
06-07 .259
07-08 .273 (LAL)
08-09 .254 (1st half of the season)
In 08-09, playing with Lakers, he was as productive as in 06-07, when he was playing with Grizzlies.
Dustin,
db dismisses Hadaddi’s stats because of small sample size (120 minutes). That’s 3-4 games for a starter. You need more minutes to appreciate the contributions of a player.
The NBA doesn’t punish small markets. San Antonio is a small market and they are doing much better than the Knicks. Portland’s doing fine, but isn’t a big enough market for the NFL or MLB. The Celtics couldn’t get a free agent to come visit a few years ago, but haven’t had any problems since KG and Ray Allen came over. Assemble a winning team and everything else works out.
KG ranked among the top 5 players in the league while playing on a Minnesota team that was failing to make the playoffs, outperforming Tim Duncan. Being the best player on a bad team does not diminish one’s WP48.
TBall,
Except New Orleans. They really shouldn’t have a team, though.
Hmm. I dunno.
I think the Clippers are a better resemblance to the Lions, while the Grizzlies would be the Raiders. Something like that.
It’s just that, for as inept as the Grizz are, the Clippers have been far worse. It isn’t easy; you have to try to be that bad for that long.
I don’t understand what has happen to Marc Gasol between your post all-star memphis post and this one. Back then you had him as a .158 WP48 and argued he was the literal as well as figurative center of the team. Did his final 20 games really pull him down that badly?
The earlier article is here:
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2009/03/10/the-same-three-year-gasol-plan-in-memphis/
Paul,
During the season I was only using three position averages: Big Men, Small Forwards, Guards. A few weeks ago I noted that I was going back to my original approach and using five position averages: Centers, Power Forwards, Small Forwards, Shooting Guards, Point Guards.
Consequently, Gasol’s value drops because he is not quite as good relative to an average center. Now if he shifts to power forward his WP48 will go up.
Sorry for the confusion on this point. In the first book and the next book we use five positions. So from now on that is going to be my approach.
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