Once upon a time, the Phoenix Suns were the best team in the Western Conference. The phrase “once upon a time” often refers to a time period in the distance past. But in this instance, “once upon a time” actually refers to 20 months ago (as noted in a table posted in February of 2008).
Although Phoenix was on top of the West, it was clear in February of 2008 that the reign of the Suns was going to soon end. The Lakers had just traded for Pau Gasol, and this move was likely going to send the Lakers to the top of the conference. In response to this move, the Suns sent Shawn Marion to the Miami Heat for Shaquille O’Neal.
Two arguments were advanced at the time of this move:
1. The Suns – as they were constructed on February 1 of 2008 – were not going to win a title in 2008. And since there was a good chance Marion was going to leave Phoenix anyway, something had to be done.
2. The trade for Shaq was not going to bring a title to Phoenix. In fact, this move would make Phoenix worse.
Now that 20 months have passed – and Shaq has moved on to Cleveland — we can now completely review the Shaq era in Phoenix. This review consists of one sentence: A title didn’t come to Phoenix and the Suns did indeed decline.
Once Upon a Time Last Season
In 2008-09, the Suns not only failed to contend, the team failed to make the playoffs. And when we look at Table One we can see part of the reason for this failure.
Table One: The Phoenix Suns in 2008-09
Last season the Suns were led in Wins Produced by Steve Nash. Although Nash produced 11 wins, his 0.213 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes], this was his lowest mark since arriving in Phoenix in 2004. Nash is now 35 years of age, so one suspects age is the primary reason why he declined.
Unfortunately for the Suns, age also impacted the productivity of Shaq. O’Neal’s WP48 of 0.167 was actually his best mark since 2005-06. But it was a far cry from the 0.332 mark that Shaq averaged before he passed 30 years of age.
Next on the list is Grant Hill. Like Shaq, Hill was above average. But his WP48 of 0.149 was far below the 0.274 average mark he posted in Detroit (from 1994-95 to 1999-00).
If we move further down the list we see Amare Stoudemire. In 2004-05, 2006-07, and 2007-08 (Stoudemire missed virtually all of the 2005-06 season), Stoudemire posted a WP48 mark in excess of 0.200. Last year – primarily due to injury, his mark was only 0.106.
So we see, except for the effect of age and injury, Phoenix might have had an incredible team last year. Just imagine a team with Nash, Shaq, Hill, and Stoudemire both healthy and in their prime. These four players alone could produce more than 70 wins in a season. At least, once upon a time they could. Unfortunately, age will eventually lead to less production and injuries will happen.
Are Better Times Coming?
As a consequence, Phoenix struggled last years and now this team has to do quite a bit to get back to the top of the Western Conference. In the summer of 2009, though, the first steps back didn’t look very impressive. In the draft the Suns selected Earl Clark, a player who was below average in college last year (even if we think of him as a small forward).
After drafting Clark, the Suns then signed Channing Frye. According to ESPN.com (and Yahoo.com), Frye is currently expected to start for the Suns in 2009-10. Just to review, Frye
- was a lottery pick of the New York Knicks (and Isiah Thomas) in 2005.
- was traded to Portland after two seasons in New York.
- started 94 of 274 games with the New York Knicks and the Portland Trail Blazers.
- has produced -1.4 wins and posted a -0.012 WP48 in his career.
If we follow the permutations of the starting line-up in Phoenix, we now see that Phoenix has gone from Shawn Marion, to an old Shaquille O’Neal, and now to Channing Frye. One doesn’t need Wins Produced to see that this isn’t progress.
When we look over the current depth chart in Phoenix, it’s not immediately apparent how Phoenix is going to match the team’s win total from last year (a record, once again, that wasn’t even good enough to make the playoffs).
Potential First String
PG: Steve Nash [11.0 Wins Produced, 0.213 WP48]
SG: Jason Richardson [7.6 Wins Produced, 0.152 WP48]
SF: Grant Hill [7.6 Wins Produced, 0.149 WP48]
PF: Amare Stoudemire [4.3 Wins Produced, 0.106 WP48]
C: Channing Frye [-2.3 Wins Produced, -0.146 WP48]
Potential Second String
PG: Goran Dragic [0.1 Wins Produced, 0.006 WP48]
SG: Leandro Barbosa [4.6 Wins Produced, 0.130 WP48]
SF: Jared Dudley [1.6 Wins Produced, 0.065 WP48]
PF: Louis Amundson [1.5 Wins Produced, 0.067 WP48]
C: Robin Lopez [-1.5 Wins Produced, -0.114 WP48]
The Wins Produced of these players only sum to 34.5, suggesting Phoenix is going to have problems in 2009-10.
Despite these numbers, fans of the Suns will emphasize the injury to Stoudemire. Had Amare been healthy last year the Suns probably would have made the playoffs. And if Stoudemire is healthy this next season – and as productive as he was two years ago – then Phoenix should win more than half their games.
Contention in the West, though, is going to require more than this. It appears that the following teams will contend for the conference title (listed in alphabetical order): Dallas Mavericks, LA Lakers, Portland Trail Blazers, and San Antonio Spurs. And we expect the Denver Nuggets, New Orleans Hornets, and the Utah Jazz will make the playoffs. Phoenix does appear to be the leading candidate to complete the playoff picture out West. But it seems unlikely that this team will contend for a title.
So where will Phoenix go from here? Nash and Hill are not getting any younger. After these two talents, though, the only above average performers on the roster are Stoudemire, Richardson, and Barbosa. In other words, given the age of Nash and Hill, Phoenix is going to have to add some talent if it hopes to contend again in the future. Until that happens, Phoenix fans are simply going to have think about “Once upon a time, Phoenix was the best team in the Western Conference….”
- DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
W48 seems to really dislike Dee Brown. Any way we could drop that negative sign and give an Illini nomad something for his time on the roster not making and money.
IMO, Channing Frye is one of those guys that rates poorly on this metric that could be a tad better than he looks (though that may not be saying much in his specific case).
Most highly rated Cs and PFs are efficient scorers and good rebounders partially because they play around the basket. However, there are some players that are classified as PF or Cs that actually play a lot more like SFs and spend a lot of time on the perimeter shooting from the outside.
To me this creates a dilemma.
A successful team needs efficient scoring and rebounding of the type it typically gets from its PF or C. But it also needs outside shooting and floor spacing. The latter does not show up in the box score. In fact, to the extent it does, it lowers shooting efficiency and rebounding. That’s not an issue because we compare PGs, SGs and SFs to other players that play their respective position.
But how do you rate players that give you outside shooting and floor spacing (which typically leads to a lower scoring efficiency and fewer rebounds) when they happen to be a PF or C?
I still think this is NOT a player evaluation issue. It’s a team makeup, coaching and GM issue.
If a team has a SF that is a very good rebounder and finisher around the basket, then having your PF on the perimeter is probably OK because you are more or less reversing their offensive roles but allowing them to defend guys their own size. The same might be true if you had a truly dominant C in the middle.
It’s when you have a standard SF playing that position that having a guy like Frye playing PF or C becomes a huge problem.
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