Yes, it has only been two games (so this is a very small sample). And yes, Brandon Jennings and Ricky Rubio have to play in an NBA game. But look at what Ty Lawson has done (reported in Table One) across his first two games.
Table One: Ty Lawson after Two Games
These numbers weren’t generated against the Memphis Grizzlies (sorry, Chip). Lawson’s first two games were at home against the Utah Jazz and on the road against Portland. As one can see, against these two opponents, Lawson was well above average with respect to every statistic except assists and blocked shots.
Again, it’s early. But do you think decision-makers in Minnesota, Milwaukee, and Philadelphia – the three teams that took a different point guard than Lawson last summer – are regretting their decision? If I understand human behavior, I would say no. And even if Lawson continues to produce, the answer will still be no (people have amazing powers of rationalization when it comes to their own choices). But I think the fans of these teams – who might have questioned this choice last summer — should start feeling the pangs of regret. And if not yet, I suspect those pangs will begin soon.
- DJ
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Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
You could have included his pre-season numbers to sort of boost his profile a little more if you wanted. He was dominant in the pre-season as well.
And don’t forget your other favorite prospect DeJuan Blair.
mins 36
rebs 15 (7 Off)
points 20
Fg% 76.9
Ast 3
TO 3
Lawson and Blair. And here’s what Dave is humming during the morning shave:
I feel good,
I knew that I would.
Don’t forget, Lawson was actually the Wolves’ third first-round pick (which made me pretty happy) before they shipped him to Denver (which made me pretty sad) for a future first-rounder from Charlotte.
Forget Lawson — what about Blair?
The kid has been a friggin’ beast! And to think, we passed on him not once, but twice in the draft!
For Austine Daye and DaJaun Summers (who will probably only be in the league for 1-2 years).
” If I understand human behavior”
You are so aspergers sometimes lol
IMO you were and still are spot on with Lawson.
The Knicks could have traded down and got him instead of taking a project that will probably develop into a mediocre backup at his peak in Jordan Hill.
I can’t recall your analysis on Collison, but he was another PG I thought slipped too far.
I haven’t been paying attention to how he’s doing though.
My memory seems to have failed me on Collison.
Here is the draft review.
http://www.wagesofwins.com/PAWS40Draft09.html
Yes, early indications are good. But I don’t know about a somewhat gloaty (not a word, says spellcheck) analysis after two games (!). Talk about small sample size.
On another note, could you please give Danny Ainge a call or an email (goshdannyisagm@gmail.com) and explain why giving Rondo $55 million over 5 years is worth it? Rondo’s agent has a point, after all: when the Celtics win the title this year, Rondo’s value will have increased. Seriously, I don’t know what Ainge thinks when he watches the C’s: Rondo consistently does things that no PG should be able to do. If I were Tommy Heinsohn, I would call him, the greatest point guard in the NBA right now. End of rant. Exhale.
George Hill had a 12.6 WS two years ago while Lawson had a 12.8 last season. Somewhat similar players, both undervalued for no good reason, both put into fabulous situations, these guys will both be fabulous pros very soon.
Rondo is the second greatest pg, or will be if age has caught up with Jason Kidd. CP3 rules that position.
Michael,
I don’t disagree. Heinsohn is a relentless partisan so only he would say Rondo is the greatest. But still, Rondo is so f***ing good. He’s like fried chicken. Tonight’s line: 2 pts, 8 rbs, 16 ast, 2 to.
-Zach
Probably won’t see significant minutes again once JR smith gets back
IMO, Ty Lawson is going to be a very good PG in the NBA.
When looking back a decade from today, however, as a smallish PG, he is not going to be regarded as the “steal” of the 2009 NBA Draft.
Establishing oneself, as a high level player over the course of an entire NBA career is akin to running a marathon, not a 100 M Final.
As such, there are several individuals in this year’s class of rookies with the capacity to establish themselves down-the-road as top notch players in the league at a variety of different positions.
FYI … http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3671#comments
“Rondo is so f***ing good. He’s like fried chicken. Tonight’s line: 2 pts, 8 rbs, 16 ast, 2 to.”
Definitely. I still can’t understand why so many people seem to think Derrick Rose was the ‘star’ of that Chicago-Boston Series.
Second-year player worth watching: Marreese Speights, himself one of Dave’s ex-fave draft prospects coming out of college.
By my calculations, through 3 games, he has put up a WS48 of 24.4, which is a PAWS48 of about 14.0 compared to the average center.
Yes, it’s only three games, but even in what little I’ve seen of him, he’s taken some leaps compared to last year.
MY TURN TO GLOAT BASED ON A SMALL SAMPLE SIZE…
It is safe to say that the long-suffering Milwaukee fans are feeling no regrets whatsoever about passing on Lawson in favor of Jennings.
Can I finally can get an “I told you so” for Gallinari from the previous year’s draft? ;-)
(notice my name)
Sorry for another relevant but off topic post.
Has anyone noticed that Ariza is lighting it up for Houston despite much higher usage and no Bryant to draw double teams.
I know it’s early, but this one is a little surprising to me. I knew he could score more, but I thought his efficiency would drop a bit. At quick glance, it looks good.
So let’s talk about Michael Beasley. Wasn’t he a sure thing as well?
I don’t know why the Wolves would regret it. Flynn is also playing very well and it certainly not like Rubio has been proven a failure. Has Lawson even played better than Flynn?
Flynn is playing pretty well except for the 4.8 turnovers per 36 he has averaged in the first three games…
Lawson was an interesting case because basically every statistical analysis system predicted success for him. Hollinger noted that he would be a good test case for ‘stats vs. scouts’.
Since most stats systems thought he’d be good, I’m not sure it’s a proof for WP individually, but if Lawson does well, it will speak well for stats analysis. But then I guess, Morey’s success in Houston may also be doing that.