Unemployment is a pressing concern in this nation.  And the New Jersey Nets aren’t helping.  After starting the season with 16 consecutive losses the Nets have decided to let Lawrence Frank join the ranks of the unemployed.  But is the head coach the reason this team is winless? As always, let’s look at the numbers.

The first numbers we want to consider is efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency).  After 16 games (I am ignoring the first game after Frank departed), the Nets mark was -11.1.  Such a mark is consistent with a team that will win 12 games across an 82 game season.  So after 16 games, the Nets – given their efficiency differential – should have won 2.4 games.  In sum, the team was truly awful, although not quite as awful as their winless record indicated.

To see if the problem was the coach we can consider how many wins the team would have had if its players maintained what they did last year.  Here is each veteran player’s WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] in 2008-09 and after 16 games this season:

Brook Lopez: 575 minutes, 0.104 WP48 (last season), 0.060 WP48 (this season)

Rafer Alston: 534 minutes, 0.087 WP48 (last season), -0.049 WP48 (this season)

Chris Douglas-Roberts: 469 minutes, 0.002 WP48 (last season), 0.135 WP48 (this season)

Trenton Hassell: 435 minutes, 0.053 WP48 (last season), 0.049 WP48 (this season)

Josh Boone: 291 minutes, 0.091 WP48 (last season), 0.149 WP48 (this season)

Bobby Simmons: 257 minutes, 0.041 WP48 (last season), -0.106 WP48 (this season)

Courtney Lee: 251 minutes, 0.067 WP48 (last season), 0.014 WP48 (this season)

Devin Harris: 182 minutes, 0.154 WP48 (last season), 0.011 WP48 (this season)

Sean Williams: 155 minutes, -0.044 WP48 (last season), -0.085 WP48 (this season)

Eduardo Najera: 133 minutes, -0.038 WP48 (last season), 0.069 WP48 (this season)

Yi Jianlian: 119 minutes, 0.001 WP48 (last season), 0.070 WP48 (this season)

Okay, that’s a mess of numbers.  We need to remember one more number. An average player posts a 0.100 WP48. When we look at last season’s numbers we see only two players – Brook Lopez and Devin Harris – were above average.  And Lopez was only barely above average.

This season Harris has been hurt (and less productive) and Lopez has declined slightly.  But Boone and Douglas-Roberts are now above average. 

None of these players, though, is truly outstanding.  Last season 259 players played at least 1,000 minutes.  Of these, 67 posted WP48 marks beyond what Harris did in 2008-09.   So the Nets have a collection of players who were below average last year.  And even the “good” players weren’t very good. 

Nevertheless (given the minutes each player has played this season) had these players maintained the WP48 marks seen last year the Nets would be predicted to win four of their first 16 games. 

Let’s review. 

The team’s record when Frank was fired was 0-16.

The team’s current efficiency differential predicts a record of 2-14.

And the team’s players – given what they did last year – should have posted a 4-12 record.

So will changing the coach make that much difference? Well, the Nets – even given their current levels of productivity – were not likely to go 0-82.  That means the Nets are going to win a bit more than they were under Frank. 

But I am not sure Frank is to blame for this team’s dreadful start.  The players the Nets have assembled are simply not very good (by NBA standards).  So the people who picked these players are the ones who are truly responsible for the Nets start.  And changing the coach — even to Kiki Vandeweghe (one person responsible for this roster) — is not going to change that fact.

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

Okay, I couldn’t resist commenting on the story that the Philadelphia 76ers might bring Iverson back.  Here is how my latest at Huffington Post Sports begins:

The 2009-10 NBA season began with Allen Iverson – the Answer – playing for the Memphis Grizzlies. After coming off the bench for three games, though, Iverson and the Grizzlies decided to part ways. And then a few days ago, Iverson announced his retirement.

Iverson’s commitment to retirement, though, seems about as strong as his commitment to Memphis. On Saturday, ESPN.com reported that the Philadelphia 76ers are considering bringing the Answer out of retirement. But will Iverson help Philadelphia?

The answer to this question seems obvious. As of Saturday, Philadelphia was 5-11. The team’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) was -5.2; a mark that projects to only 28 wins across an entire season. So Philadelphia is bad.

And of course, Iverson is one of the greatest players to ever play the game.

Well, not really. Read the rest at Huffington Post Sports…

At Huffington Post Sports I primarily commented on the productivity of Iverson, Andre Iguodala, and Louis Williams.  Let me add to this story with a brief comment on Elton Brand.

Across his first eight seasons, Elton Brand produced 104.1 wins and posted a 0.215 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes].  And then he got hurt.  Since this initial injury, Brand has played 43 games in parts of 2007-08, 2008-09, and 2009-10.  In these games he has produced 2.3 wins and posted a 0.067 WP48.  In 16 games in 2009-10 his WP48 is only 0.049.

Brand is now 30 years of age (as noted at Huffington Post, the early 30s are a young age for an economist but an old age for a basketball player).  The Sixers still owe Brand $50 million after this season, and it’s beginning to look like this money is not going to generate the return hoped for when Brand arrived in Philadelphia.

Despite the problems with Brand, the Sixers do have some productive players.  Andre Iguodala remains one of the better shooting guards in the NBA (his WP48 is not far from the mark posted by Kobe Byrant).  And Louis Williams and Marreese Speights – two very young players – have also been above average this season.

Unfortunately, Brand, Samuel Dalembert, Willie Green, Jrue Holiday, Jason Kapono, Jason Smith, and Thaddeus Young have all been below average. Of the veteran players, only Dalembert was an above average performer in 2008-09.  And Holiday was chosen before Ty Lawson (as expected, not a good choice).

In sum, mistakes have been made in building the Sixers.  But it does look like this team has made a few good moves in building this roster.  Adding Iverson, though, doesn’t look like a move that will fall under the heading of “a few good moves.”  In other words, bringing Iverson home is not likely to bring the Sixers closer to the playoffs in 2010.

Update: Mark noted that L.Williams is out for two months (sorry I missed that).  I have updated the Huffington Post column with this information.  Thanks to Mark for noting this injury.

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

Here is my latest for Huffington Post Sports:

Upon graduating high school in 2008 Brandon Jennings made an unusual move. Although he had a scholarship to the University of Arizona, Jennings decided to skip college and sign a contract to play professional basketball in Italy. Skeptics derided the move when it was announced. And after 43 games of European basketball, it looked like the skeptics were right. According to Draft Express, Jennings averaged less than seven points per game in Italy and his shooting efficiency was well below average.

Despite this performance, the Milwaukee Bucks invested the 10th pick in the 2009 NBA draft in Jennings. Again, there was skepticism. How could a player who couldn’t excel in Italy make a significant contribution to an NBA team?

Read the rest at Huffington Post Sports…

The column goes on to put the start of Brandon Jennings’ career in some historical perspective.  But it completely ignores the rest of the Milwaukee Bucks, something I can briefly rectify below.

After 13 games the Bucks have posted a 3.3 efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency).  Such a mark translates into about 50 wins across an 82 game season.  As the column notes, Brandon Jennings is responsible for about 10.6 of these projected victories.  Most of the remaining victories are projected to come from the following players:

Ersan Ilyasova: 295 minutes, 0.226 WP48, 8.8 projected wins

Luke Ridnour: 311 minutes, 0.196 WP48, 8.0 projected wins

Andrew Bogut: 302 minutes, 0.164 WP48, 6.5 projected wins

Charlie Bell: 405 minutes, 0.104 WP48, 5.6 projected wins

Hakim Warrick: 309 minutes, 0.086 WP48, 3.5 projected wins

Kurt Thomas: 143 minutes, 0.170 WP48, 3.2 projected wins

These six players are projected to produce 35.6 wins.  Now this projection is not entirely accurate.  It presumes minutes played will stay the same and Bogut is expected to out for four more weeks.  Michael Redd – who also missed time (and has yet to play well) – is also back.  If Redd returns to form the Bucks should be even better.

Regardless of the injuries, it looks like this might be the best Bucks team since 2000-01.  And a bit more improvement (i.e. Redd comes back strong) and this will be the best Milwaukee team since the mid-1980s.

Much of this improvement is due to Jennings.  But as the above list notes, he’s not a one-man team.  Ilyasova, Ridnour, Bogut, Thomas, and Bell (only slightly) have been above average players this year.  And Redd should join the list. 

Although it’s early (so the usual disclaimers apply), it looks like the Bucks can certainly expect to make the playoffs.  Which is not too bad for a team many thought would be one of the worst teams in the league (not sure I thought that, but I also didn’t foresee the play of Jennings and Ilyasova either).

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

Last October this was quite the debate.  Just to recap:

• The media and coaches have always liked Durant.  He was a top pick in the draft and voted to the All-Rookie team by the coaches.  And the media said he was Rookie of the Year in 2008.
• John Hollinger’s Player Efficiency Rating has also always said Durant was “good”.  Both PERs and the media are heavily influenced by a player’s point totals, so it’s not surprising to see PERs and the media agree (and the same can be said for coaches).
• Wins Produced said Durant was below average as a rookie, but improved dramatically in his second season.  How did he improve?  His shooting efficiency, rebounding, and steals went up while his turnovers went down.  In other words, Durant improved with respect to the primary box score statistics that increase wins.
• Despite the improved box score numbers, though, adjusted plus-minus insisted that Durant was below average in both his first two seasons.  The difficulty with this measure is that it never tells you why a player is “good” or “bad”.  But since Durant had very good box score numbers, it was argued that Durant was actually very bad at on-the-ball defense.

Of course, there was another potential explanation.  Adjusted plus-minus is a very inconsistent measure.  The year-to-year correlations are very low (there is a great deal of “noise” in the model).  So it could be Durant’s adjusted plus-minus was due to his supposedly awful defensive skills.  Or it could be noise in the model.

After 15 games this year it is beginning to look like “noise” was the culprit.  According to BasketballValue.com, Durant’s adjusted plus-minus score is 16.09.  This is the second highest mark on the team.  So it looks like everyone is now in agreement.  Durant is officially a “good” player (ain’t that a relief?).

Fortunately for the Thunder, he is also not alone.  Here are the top producers of wins in Oklahoma City [WP48 = Wins Produced per 48 minutes].

Kevin Durant: 579 minutes played, 0.204 WP48, 13.5 projected Wins Produced

Thabo Sefolosha: 491 minutes played, 0.182 WP48, 10.2 projected Wins Produced

Russell Westbrook: 512 minutes played, 0.138 WP48, 8.0 projected Wins Produced

James Harden: 296 minutes played, 0.219 WP48, 7.4 projected Wins Produced

This quartet are on pace to produce 39.0 wins.  As a team, Oklahoma City has an efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) of 2.4, a mark that projects to about 47 wins across an 82 game season.  So the four players listed above are responsible for about 83% of the team’s wins.

Missing from this list is any player at power forward or center.  Jeff Green remains a below average player.  And Nick Collison and Etan Thomas have yet to produce much in 2009-10.  D.J. White, though, has posted a 0.423 WP48.  Before Thunder fans get too excited, White has only played 44 minutes and has yet to play more than 15 minutes in a game (or more than two games in a row). 

Despite the problems in the frontcourt, it does look like Durant is a “good” player.  And because he has three other “good” teammates, it looks like the Thunder will be “good” this year.

Let me close by noting the play of James Harden. So far Harden is only averaging 19.7 minutes per game.  But if his WP48 of 0.219 continues – and his minutes per game don’t change – he will produce 7.4 wins by the time the season ends.  Such production could be what pushes the Thunder past the 41 win mark; or the mark that divides “good” teams from “bad” teams.  Harden probably may not play enough minutes to warrant consideration for Rookie of the Year (he plays the same as Thabo Sefolosha).  But in a discussion of “good” rookies in 2009-10, Harden’s name should be mentioned.

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

My latest column for the Huffington Post focuses on the woeful New Jersey Nets:

Fans of the New Jersey Nets can’t be a happy bunch these days. Thirteen games have been played and the team has still failed to taste victory.

Happiness, though, is often driven by relative standing. Sure, some folks are better off than you. But if you can focus on those who are worse off, sometimes – in a perverse way – that can make you feel better.

Such a fact probably can’t make fans of the Nets that happy. After all, they are the only team without a win. But wins and losses aren’t always the best measure of a team’s quality. If we want to forecast the future we are better off looking at a team’s efficiency differential. Read the rest at Huffington Post Sports…

The rest of this column moves past efficiency differential and on to the subject of Wins Produced.  If you are a regular reader of this forum, Wins Produced is a familiar concept.  It will be interesting to see, though, how the audience at Huffington Post reacts. 

Huffington Post also prefers that columns be kept to 800 words or fewer.  Regular readers of the Wages of Wins Journal know that I have a problem shutting up keeping it short (I almost always go past 1,000 words).  Had I more space I would have noted…

• after 13 games the Nets have two above average players: Josh Boone [0.137 WP48]  and Chris Douglas-Roberts [0.174 WP48].  Every other player is below the average mark of 0.100.  Rafer Alston, Courtney Lee, Bobby Simmons, and Sean Williams are in the negative range.
• after 13 games the Timberwolves (the other team I mention) have only one above average player.  Damien Wilkins has a 0.147 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes].  Corey Brewer, Brian Cardinal, Wayne Ellington, Jonny Flynn, and Ryan Hollins have all played more than 100 minutes and all have a WP48 that is in the negative range. 
• Al Jefferson’s mark is 0.044 (last year his mark was 0.160).  And Ramon Sessions has a 0.096 WP48 [last year his mark was 0.198]. 
• After these two teams, the New York Knicks have the lowest differential (after games on Saturday night).  The Knicks’ mark is -6.79.  So the Knicks are quite a bit better than the Nets and T-Wolves.
• The top five teams are the Celtics (10.03), Trail Blazers (7.77), Hawks (6.89), Nuggets (6.71), and Mavericks (6.26). Again, this is after Saturday’s games. 
• And finally… it’s obviously very early.  Numbers will change as more games are played.  I was going to emphasize this point at Huffington Post, but I ran out of space.

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.