From a statistical perspective – as Table One illustrates — Ty Lawson was the most productive point guard drafted out of college last summer. 

Table One: Ranking the Players Selected from College in the 2009 NBA Draft

Despite his college production, though, Lawson lasted until the 18^th pick in the draft.  Five point guards – or at least, players who can play point guard – were selected before Lawson went to the Denver Nuggets.  And now that were about one-third of the way through the 2009-10 season it seems like a good idea to look at the early returns on these point guards (well, it may not be a good idea but I am going to do it anyway).

The Early Returns

Before we look at the Wins Produced – and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] – numbers, we should note that it’s very early in these player’s careers.  Young players do get better, so players who don’t look good today might look better later on (of course, players who don’t look good today might not look better later on). 

With this caveat in mind, let’s look at the numbers.  The following lists where each point guard was selected, how many minutes he has played (as of Monday night), his WP48 at the point guard position, and his projected wins.  The latter is calculated by simply assuming the proportion of minutes assigned each player at this point will be the same the rest of the year. Since this proportion will probably change, these projected wins should be thought of as rough estimates (and given trends in performance, perhaps very rough estimates).

4. Tyreke Evans [945 minutes, 0.126 WP48, 9.3 Projected Wins]

6. Jonny Flynn [820 minutes, -0.026 WP48, -1.3 Projected Wins]

7. Stephen Curry [841 minutes, 0.076 WP48, 4.7 Projected Wins]

10. Brandon Jennings [928 minutes, 0.101 WP48, 8.5 Projected Wins]

17. Jrue Holiday [343 minutes, -0.044 WP48, -0.9 Projected Wins]

18. Ty Lawson [576 minutes, 0.152 WP48, 5.3 Projected Wins]

An average rookie posts a WP48 mark of 0.042.  So Evans, Curry, Jennings, and Lawson are above average.  In fact, Evans, Jennings, and Lawson are above average when compared to all players (average WP48 is 0.100).  If we look back at Table One we will see that Evans, Flynn, and Holiday were below average in college while Curry and Lawson were above par.  Thus far, four of these five players are maintaining their position relative to an average player at his position.

So it looks like a few teams who passed on Lawson might begin to feel some regrets.  In terms of WP48, Lawson tops this entire sample.  Evans and Jennings, though, have been above average thus far.  So it’s likely the Kings (who took Evans) and the Bucks (who took Jennings) are looking not looking at envy at Lawson (as noted in a moment, this is especially true for Evans).  Even the Warriors (who took Curry), are probably are somewhat happy with their choice.

The Timberwolves and 76ers, though, would probably be better off with Lawson.  This was the story before the draft.  And it looks like this story can be told today.

Jennings and Evans go in Opposite Directions

Let me close by noting the play of Jennings and Evans.  A few weeks ago I noted that Jennings had posted a 0.181 WP48 after 15 games.  His mark today – when we factor in his time at shooting guard – is 0.111.  This means that Jennings has posted a 0.026 WP48 across the past 11 games. As we go forward it will be interesting to see which player is the “true” Jennings.  Will Jennings return to what we saw earlier in the season? Or are the comparisons to Allen Iverson accurate?

While Jennings has been getting worse, Evans has been getting much better.  After nine games, Evans had a mark of 0.058.  When you factor in his play at shooting guard, his current mark is 0.155.  This means Evans has posted a 0.205 mark across the past 17 games.  In sum, Evans looks like the early favorite for Rookie of the Year (Lawson is probably not going to play enough to seriously contend for this award).  At least, the amazing Tyreke Evans looks like the early favorite for ROY for guards (I haven’t looked at other positions yet). 

-  DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

Before the season started we learned that Yao Ming wasn’t going to play.  Furthermore, Ron Artest had departed for LA and the availability of Tracy McGrady was questionable.  These three players led the Rockets in points per game in 2008-09.  With so much scoring exiting the building, many NBA observers thought Houston was destined for the 2010 lottery.

In looking over Houston’s roster, though, it didn’t appear this team was quite as bad as people thought.  Entering this season the Rockets roster included the following players who were above average performers in 2008-09:  Trevor Ariza, Shane Battier, Chuck Hayes, Kyle Lowry, and Carl Landry.   Although these players were not scorers, their respective WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] numbers suggested the cupboard wasn’t bare in Houston.  In fact – although the loss of Ming and McGrady was going to hurt some (notice I left out Artest) – it seemed that the playoffs were still a possibility for the Rockets.

The Rockets Today

The Rockets have now played 27 games in 2009-10.  And if the season ended today, the Rockets would not have a seat at the NBA lottery.  So how was this possible?

Table One: The Houston Rockets after 27 Games in 2009-10

Table One reports the Wins Produced and WP48 numbers for the Rockets this season.  As one can see, the following players have so far been above average (average is 0.100): Luis Scola, Carl Landry, Kyle Lowry, Trevor Ariza, and Chuck Hayes.  Yes, five of the six players who were above average last season are still above average this season. 

Again, the loss of Ming and McGrady (the latter only recently returned) didn’t help.  But the Rockets are still on pace to win about 46 games this season (after winning 53 last season).  So apparently losing your top scorers is not necessarily a death sentence.

The performance of the Rockets this season demonstrates an aspect of basketball performance often noted in this forum.  Basketball players – relative to what we see in baseball and football – are very consistent over time.  For the most part, the productivity of the players the Rockets are employing this season is not much different from what we saw last year. Yes, the loss of the team’s primary scorers has forced other players to take shots.  In general, though, the increase in shot attempts hasn’t reduced each player’s effectiveness.

The Ariza Story

As a few commentators on the Miami Heat post from a few days ago noted, though, the exception is Trevor Ariza (how we went from a discussion of Dwyane Wade to Ariza, though, is a mystery to me). Last season Ariza took 14.1 field goal attempts per 48 minutes (FGA48) and his adjusted field goal percentage was 51.1%.  This season, Ariza’s FGA48 has increased to 20.4 and his adjusted field goal percentage has fallen to 45.8%.  And this has led some people to argue that Ariza is the classic example of how increasing shot attempts lowers efficiency.

In reading the comments I am somewhat convinced I cannot change everyone’s mind about the meaning behind Ariza’s numbers.  In fact, one commentator explicitly stated: “If a statistical study suggests otherwise, it must be missing something.”

Such a comment forces me to lower my expectations.  The following comments on Ariza’s declining field goal percentage, as I note, will not necessarily change minds (but they might give “true believers” something else to rationalize away).  Here are some things to think about when you consider Ariza’s drop in efficiency:

• Ariza’s career adjusted field goal percentage is 48.4%.  So his mark this year is not far from this career mark. 
• Ariza, though, has dropped off.  Looking at other players on Houston’s roster, though, reveals a different story.  Carl Landry is taking 5.6 additional field goals per 48 minutes and his shooting efficiency has only declined from 57.5% to 57.0%.  Chuck Hayes has seen his FGA48 rise by 4.9 and his shooting efficiency has improved by 7.7%. 
• The discussion of Ariza, Landry, and Hayes is purely anecdotal.  When you look at players from 1977-78 to 2007-08 (the sample includes over 5,000 season observations) you see that there is a link between a change in the number of shots he takes and his shooting efficiency.  But the impact is quite small.  Here is what we say in our next book:  “…imagine a player who takes 16.3 shots per 48 minutes and has an adjusted field goal percentage of 48.4% (these are the league average marks).  If that player increased his shots per 48 minutes to 25.3 (a two standard deviation increase), his adjusted field goal percentage would be expected to decline to 47.1%.”

Given all this, is the change we see in Ariza’s shooting efficiency simply due to the fact he is being asked to take more shots?  I don’t think the evidence leads to that conclusion.  We don’t see the same story when we look at the other players on the Rockets (who are also taking more shots).  And we don’t see such a strong link between shot attempts and shooting efficiency when we look at a sample of over 5,000 NBA players.   

All that being said, I don’t have a great story for why Ariza’s efficiency has declined.  I will note that although NBA players are very consistent from season to season, shooting efficiency is one aspect of a player’s performance that is the most volatile (as we note in the next book, it’s about as volatile as OPS and Slugging Percentage in baseball). 

The Bigger Story

Regardless of how you see the Ariza story, the primary observation remains.  Most players on the Rockets are playing about as well as we would expect given their past performance.  Yes, many of these players are playing more minutes.  And many are taking more shots.  But their overall effectiveness is roughly the same.

Now it’s important to remember that losing Ming and McGrady didn’t help.  And although the Rockets would be in the playoffs if the post-season started today, they are only barely in.  There’s still a chance Houston will be visiting the lottery.  That being said, what we have seen so far does suggest that losing your top scorers doesn’t necessarily kill an NBA team.  At least, that’s what we see when a roster has an abundance of productive non-scorers. 

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

With 30% of the regular season complete, the Boston Celtics lead the Eastern Conference with a 10.3 efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency).  And the LA Lakers lead the Western Conference with an 8.3 mark.  Although it’s still early, such numbers suggest that for the 12^th time in NBA history the Celtics and Lakers will meet in the NBA Finals. 

Again, it’s early.  But if these numbers hold up people will be asking the following until next summer: Who is better, Boston or LA?

The Celtic Argument

Let’s start with a look at the Boston Celtics after 24 games.  Table One reports each player’s Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] this season, as well as what Boston could have expected given what these players did last season.  As one can see, given what these players did last season Boston should be on pace to win 72 games this year.  After 24 games, though, the pace is only 66.4 victories.

Table One: The Boston Celtics after 24 games in 2009-10

When we look at the performance of the individual players we see that Rasheed Wallace, Ray Allen, and Eddie House have declined the most.  What do these players have in common?  All three are on the wrong side of 30 years of age.  And that illustrates the problem facing the Celtics. Six of the Celtics are more than 30 years of age and these players have played 60% of the team’s minutes. And of these six, only Paul Pierce is offering more this season (relative to last season).

Although basketball players may like to think they age like fine wine, the general pattern is that players age like milk.  So as the season progresses, the Celtics might slip some more.  At this point in time, though, the Celtics are a very good team.  And this is because of the performance of Rajon Rondo, Kevin Garnett, Pierce, Kendrick Perkins, Ray Allen, and Shelden Williams. These six players are on pace to produce nearly 68 wins this year.

There are two surprises on this list.  First, Shelden Williams has been very productive and should (but may not) make fans of the Celtics forget about Glenn Davis.  The other surprise is Rasheed Wallace, who is really not offering much at all. Once again, given his age this shouldn’t be a surprise. 

The Lakers Argument

Okay, the Celtics are good, but not quite as good as their past numbers suggest.  The story of the Lakers is the opposite.

Table Two: The LA Lakers after 24 games in 2009-10

As Table Two illustrates, what the Lakers did last season suggests that this team should only be on pace to win 52 games this year.  When we look at production this season, though, the Lakers are on pace to win 63 games. 

Both of these numbers are deflated because of the early season injury to Pau Gasol.  In projecting wins I am taking the easy way out.  Projections are simply what has happened across 24 games multiplied by 82/24.  So for Gasol, his projected minutes are only 1,596 (which essentially assumes Gasol will keep missing eleven out of each 24 game segment). Currently, though, Gasol is averaging 36 minutes per game.  At this pace, Gasol will play about 2,550 minutes this season.  Given what he did last season [WP48 of 0.256], projections based on last year’s number would increase by 5.5 wins (so the Lakers should have expected about 57 wins). 

After 13 games, though, Gasol has posted a 0.465 WP48.  Such a mark bests – by a wide margin – anything Gasol has done in his career.  And it also tops anything anyone did last season.  If Gasol can keep this up, the Lakers can expect to win about 72 games this season.

But can Gasol maintain this pace?  Again, he has never produced at this level before.  When we look at the individual numbers we see that Gasol is posting career highs with respect to free throw percentage and rebounds.  As noted in the past, rebounding tends to be very consistent across time.  So one wonders if Gasol will keep grabbing 16.9 rebounds per 48 minutes (his previous high was 13.1 in 2006-07). 

If this happens, Gasol and the Lakers will probably finish with a better record than the Celtics.  And the subsequent home-court advantage – assuming the playoffs hold to form – will give the Lakers an advantage in the NBA Finals. 

Then Again…

But if Gasol slips, then the Celtics will have the advantage.  Then again, if the aged Celtics keep aging, maybe the Lakers will be better.  Of course, Kobe is both aged and hurt.  So maybe Boston will still finish with the best record.

Okay, here is what we know. Right now, the season numbers favor the Celtics.  But there is evidence that the Lakers are better right now and could finish with better season numbers.

And all of this ignores the other teams in the NBA. I still believe it’s possible that the Cleveland Cavaliers can come back (although I recognize the distinct possibility that won’t happen).  And the Atlanta Hawks and Josh Smith continue to be amazing (9.0 efficiency differential).

In sum, it’s still early (have I said this?).  But if you are looking at the Celtics and Lakers, we can clearly see that the Celtics are better.  Or is it the Lakers?  Or… how ‘bout that Pau Gasol?

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

The Miami Heat began the season with a three game winning streak.  After losing a game, the Heat won another three in a row.  Since that 6-1 start, though, the team has only won six of seventeen games.  After one of their latest losses – a 28 point defeat at the hands of the Memphis Grizzlies – the Heat began searching for answers. (HT True Hoop)

“I didn’t say a word. I let the guys talk. Sometimes, as a leader, you have to listen,” (Dwyane) Wade said of a postgame powwow led by veterans Jermaine O’Neal and Udonis Haslem. “I won’t say what any guy said. Just know that there was communication back and forth.”

Haslem insisted that there was no finger-pointing or animosity, although there was plenty of blame to share for the disappointing play at home. Instead, Haslem’s message was on all-inclusive accountability.

Sunday was for soul-searching.

“It’s not just about one person or two people,” Haslem said. “It’s on all of us. We definitely have to dig deep and find out what type of team we are.

“We need to get that chip back on our shoulder we had earlier.”

The words of Haslem suggest that if the Heat simply change their attitude, or try just a bit harder, the Heat will become a winning team.  Furthermore, this is a team issue.  Blame cannot be assigned to any one player or person. The numbers, though, seem to tell a different story. 

Pointing at the Supporting Cast

Last year Miami was led by Dwyane Wade.  Of the team’s 43 wins, about 22 were linked to the productivity of Wade.  This means that without Wade, the Heat were not a very good team.

This year – as Table One illustrates – the Heat are once again led by Wade.  And after Wade, Miami – once again — doesn’t have much.  The Heat are currently on pace to win about 40 games this year (the team’s efficiency differential is -0.7). 

Table One: The Miami Heat after 24 games in 2009-10

Of these 40 wins, about 26 of these projected wins can be linked to players not nicknamed Flash.  About four of these wins can be linked to the play of Dorell Wright.  Last year, Wright only played 73 minutes.  So his production (which is quite similar per 48 minutes to what he did in 2007-08) is somewhat surprising.  In fact, Wright and Wade are the only players to surpass the WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] mark of 0.200 (twice the average mark).  And only Udonis Haslem and Quentin Richardson (of those who have played 100 minutes) surpass the average mark.  Yes, much of this roster is below average.

One player who comes close to average – although still falls short – is Jermaine O’Neal.  And like the play of Wright, this is also somewhat surprising. Last year O’Neal posted a -0.037 WP48.  This year he’s still below average, but his ability to approach the average mark – something he hasn’t done since 2006-07 — is worth about four additional wins to the Heat across an entire season (or about six more wins than this team could have expected O’Neal to produce). 

Without the play of Wright and O’Neal the Heat would not be as close to the 0.500 mark. So clearly one can point a finger at whoever assembled Wade’s supporting cast.  But one can also point the finger of accusation at Wade. 

Pointing at Flash

In 2008-09, Wade posted a WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] mark in excess of 0.300.  This season, Wade’s WP48 is 0.207.   In other words, last year Wade’s productivity went beyond what we see from Kobe Bryant [WP48 of 0.244 in 2008-09).  This season, Wade’s production lags behind Kobe.  And for the Heat to be a team that goes well beyond 41 wins (at least, more than one or two games beyond), Flash really has to do more than Kobe.

This year, though, that’s not happening.  And the big reason why Flash has dimmed is Wade’s shooting efficiency.  Last season Wade posted a 51.6% adjusted field goal percentage.  This season this mark has fallen to 44.8%.  If Wade could return to the level of efficiency seen last year – and the same happened with respect to assists (which are also a bit down) – the Heat would see the team’s projected wins rise by about nine.   

One should note, though, that even if Wade returned to form – and Wright and O’Neal kept doing what we have seen thus far –the Heat would probably fall short of 50 victories. And that mark is not quite what Miami envisioned when it started 6-1. 

The problem for Miami is that this start was a bit of an illusion.  As Dean Oliver noted in Basketball on Paper, there is a 90% chance that a team that ultimately wins 30% of its games – or about 25 games – will win three in a row at some point in an NBA season.  So when the Heat – a team that will probably win 50% of its games – started with a three game winning streak (and followed it with another three game winning streak after a loss); the expectations for the Heat shouldn’t have changed immediately.  At least, we shouldn’t be surprised that Miami has fallen short of the promise of these early streaks.

Pointing All the Fingers

At the end of the day, Miami doesn’t have much beyond Wade.  So a finger of blame needs to be pointed at the person (or persons) who assembled this roster.  And as noted, a second finger can be pointed at Wade himself. The Heat would not be one of the top teams in the league if Wade reverted to form.  But they could be a bigger threat to surpass the mark of an average team and perhaps come closer to 50 wins.

Unfortunately for Miami, “approaching 50 wins” is probably the ceiling for this team; and struggling to stay above .500 is closer to reality.  One suspects that this will not be enough for Miami to keep Wade when the season ends.  And if Wade does depart, we can expect the finger of blame to be frequently pointed next summer in Miami.

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

If the NBA playoffs began today the Phoenix Suns would currently have the 4^th seed – and home-court advantage in the first round — in the Western Conference.  The Cleveland Cavaliers – in the Eastern Conference – also hold the 4^th seed.  Why is this comparison important?

Last year the Cavaliers were the best team in the NBA (at least, in the regular season) and the Phoenix Suns missed the NBA playoffs.  This past summer the Suns sent Shaquille O’Neal to the Cleveland Cavaliers.  And after one-quarter of the 2009-10 season, it appears that Shaq’s departure has made the Suns better and caused the Cavaliers to decline.

Shaq’s impact on the Cavs was discussed last week (and it ain’t a pretty picture).  Today we are going to examine the surprising Suns.

Are the Suns Rising?

The Suns have won 16 of their first 24 games.  Such a record, though, is somewhat deceiving.  When we turn to efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) we see a mark (after Saturday’s games) of 2.85.  This mark ranks 7^th in the West, just ahead of the Utah Jazz (2.70) and the Houston Rockets (2.15).  So a focus on efficiency differential reveals that the Suns are not far from slipping into the 9^th spot (and out of the playoffs). 

A differential of 2.85 is consistent with a team that wins 48 games across an 82 game season.  Last season the Suns posted a differential of 1.95, a mark consistent with a 46 win team (the number of wins the team had last season).  So the Suns have not really improved much relative to last year.

Not much, though, is still something.  And something has happened without Shaq.  When we look at Wins Produced – reported in Table One — we can see where the improvement has come from. 

Table One: The Phoenix Suns after 24 games in 2009-10

Table One reports what each player has done for the Suns this season.  It also reports each player’s expected production, given what the player did last year.  A quick glance at the numbers reveals that the two players who have improved the most are Steve Nash and Channing Frye.

A different picture emerges, though, if we consider what Nash and Frye did two years ago.   If Nash and Frye were repeating what they did in 2007-08, each player’s production would be as follows:

Steve Nash [2oo7-08 production]: 0.276 WP48, 15.7 Projected Wins

Channing Frye [2007-08 production]: 0.043 WP48, 2.3 Projected Wins

Team Wins Produced [with Nash and Frye from 2007-08]: 46.1

Again, the team is currently on pace to win 48 games.  So the story in Phoenix is simply that Nash and Frye have reverted to what we saw in 2007-08. 

It’s important to emphasize.  Frye from two years ago was still below average (and a bit better than what we are seeing this year).  He just wasn’t as bad as he was in 2008-09.

All-Star Amare?

When we look at the leader in Wins Produced, we don’t see Channing Frye.  And we don’t see fellow big man Amare Stoudemire until we get past Nash, Jason Richardson, Grant Hill, and Jared Dudley.  Yet it’s Stoudemire  — with the help of David Spade – who is campaigning to start the 2010 All-Star game. 

Once upon a time it made sense for Stoudemire to think about the All-Star game.   In 2004-05, Stoudemire produced 12.9 wins with a 0.214 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes].  After missing much of 2005-06 with injury, Stoudemire came back to produced 12. 1 wins in 2005-06 [with a 0.217 WP48]. And then in 2007-08, he posted a 0.251 WP48 and produced 14.0 wins. 

Last year, though, Stoudemire’s WP48 dropped off considerably.  Many people blamed the addition of Shaq or perhaps a change in the team’s offensive philosophy.  This year, though, Shaq is in Cleveland. And the team’s offense is supposed to be a return to what we saw before Terry Porter became coach.  Despite these changes, though, Amare’s production is hardly at an All-Star level.  So what’s happened?

Table Two: Evaluating Amare

Table Two reports the box score statistics for Amare.  Relative to what we saw prior to last year, Amare is offering fewer rebounds and blocked shots.  These changes, though, don’t explain the entire gap.  Another issue is the number of shots Amare is taking.  More specifically, Amare is simply taking fewer shots than he did in the past.  And because he’s an efficient scorer, this reduction in shot attempts is reducing his overall production.

Unfortunately for Stoudemire, both Nash (59.6% adjusted field goal percentage) and Richardson (56.8% adjusted field goal percentage) are currently more efficient scorers.  So it’s not clear that giving more shots to Stoudemire (55.8% adjusted field goal percentage) is such a good idea.  Still, it does appear Stoudemire’s drop off in shot attempts – coupled with a decline in rebounds and blocked shots – explains why Stoudemire is no longer that productive.

So here’s what we’ve learned.  In spite of their impressive record, Phoenix is not dramatically improved over what we saw last year.  What improvement we have seen can be linked to Nash and Frye reverting to form.  And Stoudemire – who really wants to be an All-Star – is simply not as productive as he was in the past. 

Can any of this be linked to the departure of Shaq?  I really don’t think so.  Although Shaq bears some responsibility for what’s happened in Cleveland, the small improvement we see in Phoenix – and it is rather small – is really not about  Shaq departing.

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.