After Friday night, every single team finally played its 41st game in the 2009-10 season. And that means that I am able to evaluate every player on ever team at the season’s midpoint. As I noted last year, many stories could be told with this data. But it’s probably best to hold off on the stories and get right to the data. So without further introduction, here is the Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] of every player at the midpoint of the 2009-10 campaign.
Again, I am sure anyone looking at this data could tell a few stories. Here are some stories that come to mind when I look at this data.
- Clearly this is NOT the year of the Super Teams. Here is what I said last October: It does seem quite possible that at least one of the four best teams in the West will win at least 62 games. And so it’s possible at least four teams (Cleveland, Orlando, Boston, and at least one Western team) will win more than 75% of their games; making the 2009-10 the year of the Super Teams. At this point, not a single NBA team is on pace to win 62 games. Part of this is due to injury. Part of this is due to declines in player productivity. And so far, all of this says I was apparently wrong last October.
- Although the final record forecast was flawed, many of the teams people thought would be lead the league are indeed leading the way. The top teams in the NBA – in terms of Wins Produced and efficiency differential – are the LA Lakers, Cleveland Cavaliers, Boston Celtics, Atlanta Hawks, and San Antonio Spurs. Each of these teams has posted a Wins Produced mark in excess of 27.5, which means at the midpoint of the season each team is half way to 55 wins. The list of teams that is half way to 50 wins includes Denver, Orlando, Portland, and Utah.
- Shifting our focus to the players… the Most Productive Player in the league at the midpoint is LeBron James. King James has already produced 13.8 wins this season, and he is on pace to finish with 27.7. This means that LeBron has already produced more wins – and is on pace to finish with more Wins Produced – than the Indiana Pacers, Minnesota Timberwolves, and New Jersey Nets.
- LeBron is obviously the most productive small forward. Here are the most productive players at each of the other four positions: PG: Chris Paul (9.8 Wins Produced), SG: Andre Iguodala (8.0 Wins Produced), PF: Marcus Camby (11.8 Wins Produced), C: Dwight Howard (10.0 Wins Produced).
- The top rookie thus far is DeJuan Blair, who has produced 4.17 Wins Produced. Tyreke Evans, though, has produced 4.16 Wins Produced. Obviously Blair is more productive on a per-minute basis.
- Turning our focus to the least productive players in the game we see that Ryan Hollins (-1.9 Wins Produced) is leading the way. He is followed by Darius Songaila (-1.5 Wins Produced). The least productive rookies include Earl Clark (-1.4 Wins Produced in only 249 minutes) and Jonny Flynn (-1.3 Wins Produced).
Those are just a few of the stories that I noticed when looking at this data. As the complete rosters for the All-Star game and Rookie Challenge are announced, I will again return to this data.
Let me close on a completely different and far more important topic. The recent earthquake in Haiti has left more than 100,000 people dead. A donation to the Red Cross — or other worthwhile charity – would certainly help out those who survived. So please give if you are able.
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Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.