As I watched the Saints defeat the Colts in the Super Bowl it occurred to me that I had forgotten to post the final quarterback rankings for the 2009 regular season. So for those who are interested, here you go.
Table One: Final Quarterback Rankings for the 2009 Regular Season
In looking at these numbers it’s important to remember that quarterbacks are quite inconsistent (a story told many times before). Relative to what we see for basketball players, the numbers for quarterbacks tend to be difficult to predict. This is especially true for interceptions, as Peyton Manning learned tonight and Jay Cutler learned throughout the 2009 season.
Inconsistent numbers in sports suggest that those numbers are not strictly about the abilities and talents of the player in question. Inconsistency suggests that a player’s teammates (or perhaps his coaches, the opponents he faces, etc…) have a substantial impact on the numbers we are seeing. Consequently, the value of those numbers is reduced.
So although it appears that the quarterbacks listed at the top of Table One are “better” than those further down the list, we cannot say with any certainty that these “better” quarterbacks will post better numbers in the future. And that means we don’t know who will be the “better” quarterbacks next year.
All of this is good news for fans of the Detroit Lions. After all, if the Saints can win a Super Bowl, why can’t the Lions? (okay, no one really needs to answer that question)
- DJ
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For more on the Wages of Wins football metrics see
Consistent Inconsistency in Football
Football Outsiders and QB Score
The Value of Player Statistics in the NFL
Prof. Berri: could you explain why you consider this metric a “QB ranking” rather than an “offense ranking”?
This wasn’t made clear in the book either. It seems to me that all the numbers you input (yards gained, yards lost due to sacks, number of plays, turnovers) explicitly incorporate contributions by the whole offense, without any attempt to isolate the quarterback’s contribution specifically.
The NBA analogue would be measuring the team-total WP48 and then ascribing it to the point guard.
One interesting observation… all 4 AFC South QB’s were in the top half of quarterbacks listed, and all four were named pro bowlers.
Isn’t some of the inconsistency we see with quarterbacks relative to basketball players also related to the much smaller sample size?
I bet if we examined basketball players in 16 game increments we’d see much more volatile results.
Interestingly, the Saints’ appearance in the Super Bowl means that the Lions stand alone in the NFC as the only team to never appear in the Super Bowl. And they are the oldest franchise (by far) in the league that can claim that distinction.
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