On Christmas day the Boston Celtics defeated the Orlando Magic. With this victory the Celtics record improved to 23-5. Glen Davis played less than five minutes in that victory. After that game, though, Davis has logged more than 10 minutes in all but two contests. And the Celtics record has only been 9-12.
In general I am skeptical of analysis that focuses on how a team does with and without a player. Basketball is a game of five-on-five, so the outcome with and without a player can be about the player in question or about something else. The efforts to untangle the player from all that comprises “something else” have not generally produced great results. And in this particular case, I don’t think Davis playing has been the entire problem. But as Table One notes, Davis really hasn’t helped much.
Table One: The Boston Celtics after 49 games in 2009-10
After 346 minutes, Davis has produced 0.2 wins and posted a 0.034 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes]. Yes, that mark is better than what Davis did last season. But it’s still well below average.
To be fair, although Davis may be the biggest player, he’s not the biggest problem. For the real problem, let’s start with what the Celtics are saying.
Here is Kevin Garnett’s take on the current state of the team:
“It’s motivation and we’ll figure a way to come out of it. We don’t lack any confidence. Our spirits are high. We have a little saying that we work hard and you put into it what you want to get out of it. Just as of late we haven’t been producing wins. We’re going to continue to work, and that’s the only way to come out of this. It’s just unfortunate that we haven’t been on top a lot of these games as of late, but Doc tells us that nothing worth acquiring is easy.”
And here is Ray Allen:
“We still love who we are as a team, but I think we’re back where we were at the start of the season. We’ve got to build back who we are.”
So Garnett and R. Allen essentially argue that the problem is a lack of hard work. Or at least, hard work will solve the team’s problems.
The numbers, though, suggest a different story. Let’s start with the starting line-up and the bench. The starters — Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett, and Kendrick Perkins — have produced 30.5 of the team’s 32.8 Wins Produced. This means that the bench players have produced less than two wins.
When we look at the production of these bench players (who have played more than 100 minutes) we only see two players – Tony Allen and Shelden Williams – that are above average (and Williams hasn’t been leaving the bench lately). Once you get past Williams and T. Allen, the remaining players on the bench have combined to produce -0.7 wins. Last year’s numbers suggest that some of these bench players should be better. Had the bench players not named T. Allen and Williams maintained what they did last year, the Celtics would have received about 4.9 wins from this collection of players. And most of this production would have come from Eddie House and Rasheed Wallace, two players – on the wrong side of 30 — who have declined relative to last year.
Wallace and House are not the only players who are offering less. The player who has posted the biggest drop-off is R. Allen. Again, R. Allen is on the wrong side of 30. And so far Allen has offered 3.4 fewer wins this year than his production last year would suggest. In fact, if R. Allen, Wallace, and House had maintained what they did last year, the Celtics would currently be on pace to win 68 games.
So when we look at the problems in Boston we need to look past Big Baby and the supposed lack of hard work, and focus primarily on age. Again, R. Allen, Wallace, and House are older than 30 and all are posting declines relative to last year. The numbers tells us that players do get much worse after 30 years of age. Although some players can deny the impact of time for a period of time, at some point age will reduce the productivity of all players.
The big question is whether or not these players can briefly return to form in the playoffs. If they can, Boston may still be able to win a title in 2010. If not, it seems likely Boston’s decline will continue into the future (a future where everyone will be even older).
By the way, who proposed the title “Ages of Wins”? Someone noted that title with respect to the issue of age and productivity in the NBA and they should get full credit (that is, if they want the credit).
- DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
I suggested the Ages of Wins, and I’ll definitely take the footnote :)
The Celtics have lost their mojo … [i] as a direct consequence of Kevin Garnett’s injured knee and his inability to perform for Boston the way he has the previous 2 seasons in the areas of:
1. Rebounding;
2. Blocked shots;
3. Lane intimidation
4. Deflections;
5. Defensive helps provided;
6. Defensive transition;
7. Defensive “switchability”;
8. Defense vs “Pick & Roll/Pops”
and, [ii] in general, the domino effect these respective “losses/performance reductions” have had on the rest of the Celtics’ less talented players.
While a “great” team can endure these types of losses/performance reductions over a short period of time, even a very good team will inevitably begin to struggle when they become a perpetual fact-of-life.
KG is not going to regain the pre-injury form he had 2 seasons ago anytime soon, and with the personnel losses of Leon Powe, James Posey, and PJ Brown … none of whom the C’s have adequately managed to replace, as of yet … this Boston team is not going to be able to push through to the NBA Finals, again.
Those who doubted KG’s overall importance to the Celtics, as the center-piece of their title-winning team, were simply off the mark.
Boston is simply too old with a non effective bench, this latest Paul Pierce’s injury didn’t help. Safe to say Cavaliers have locked down 1st spot in the East which means if Celtics can get some wins they will face Hawks/Magic in 2nd round or they will be lucky to finish 4th and face the Cavs. Either way this post season will be very ugly for the Celtics.
If Ainge is smart, he finds a way to turn Ray Allen’s expiring deal into something that can help for this year and next year.
The windows is closing fast in Boston … and time is not on their side. Trade Ray Allen, make this run. Next year, move Rasheed’s expiring deal, and make one more run last year around Rondo, KG, and Pierce.
That’s my take on it, anyway.
@brgulker
As a Celtics fan, I naturally seek out homer trades. Here’s 2 that would give the C’s a deeper bench (one of them is very much in the rumor mill already):
#1: Ray Allen for Kevin Martin and Kenny Thomas
#2: Glen Davis and Brian Scalabrine for James Posey
#1 saves Sacramento $9 million a season starting next year, enabling them to rebuild around a younger core, while giving the C’s a top-flight shooting guard for a few years
#2 saves New Orleans from James Posey’s bad deal, while giving the C’s a valuable role player (you may note from previous comments that I think Glen Davis is useless)
Kenny Thomas is serviceable as well.
Anyway, here’s hoping. The team, as currently constituted, appears to be too thin.
Letting Posey (and Powe) go seem to have undone the Celtics. Both players gave some great performances in the playoffs 2 years ago, and with House starting to show his age, their bench is literally giving them nothing.
The difference between this Celtics team and the championship team (besides Posey and Powe, who were mentioned earlier) is that the previous team played with a chip on their shoulders. Garnett, Allen, Pierce, and even Rondo all had things to prove to the world. They were movtivated to suppress their egos and the rest of the team fell in line. Now it’s less about ‘we’ and more about ‘me’, and consequentially the bench is fractured. For any sort of playoff push, they’re going to need an infusion of youth that will still be awed by the big 3 and be willing to let them take the credit for his contributions, in order to mitigate their egos.
The key for the Celtics is that the situation is eminently fixable. Ray Allen’s contract is coming off the books this year and there a number of people willing to trade longer term deals of younger shooting guards for tax relief. Kevin Martin and Iggy are two such available players (I’d trade Ray Allen and ‘Sheed for Iggy and Dalembert in a second, and the numbers are workable). I’d expect Mike Miller is available, although you’d need another significant contract from Washington (that Boston would want to accept). Something needs to be done talent-wise, though, because this Celtics team as currently constructed will not make it out of the second round and Ray Allen is the most useful chip to make that happen (could probably even work out a buy-out from the new team and re-sign with the C’s).
Danny Ainge, you are on the clock.
Thinking that a trade involving Ray Allen is going to fix the Celtics’ problems is to, simultaneously de-value:
1. The key role of Ray Allen’s perimeter shooting skills, his ability to move without the ball and get his jump-shot off under intense pressure, his overall ability to handle the ball effectively [as a psuedo-PG, when need be], and his leadership skills; and,
2. The centrifugal force role of Kevin Garnett, as the Rebounding, Shot-blocking “Defensive Linchpin” of the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 Boston Celtics.
As Wayne Winston has correctly observed … i.e. Can the Celtics Regroup? … unless this Boston team can somehow manage to get back to full health “the old KG” it is simply not going to happen for them this go-round … not because the C’s are somehow a “bad” team, by any stretch of the imagination, but because the Orlando Magic and/or the Cleveland Cavaliers are NOW just that good.
The C’s are definitiely between a rock and a hard place. Letting Powe go and signing Wallace were mistakes. Ainge has a couple of options; pull the trigger and trade a vet to an aspiring team out west for some young legs or, keep the staus quo and limit the minutes of the big three and win just enough to lead their division. They could conceivably win a title if their vets are rested and they can avoid seven game series.’ BTW, the C’s are looking more and more like a WOW team. Rondo is the only one looking like a complete player. The rest are role players.
Hoping that KG will ever return to “full form” is like hoping that my ’98 Honda Civic with 160,000 miles on it will eventually run as well as a brand new one.
KG is old, and he’s got a lot of miles under the hood. He’s still very good, better than most even, but age and injuries are correlated: the older you get, the more injuries you get (and the longer it takes to recover from them).
KG’s a great player, but biology is biology.
As to trading Ray Allen — can he continue to play forever, too? His skills are diminishing, and they need to replace something … his contract is the most easily-tradeable, regardless of his skillset.
Trade Ray Allen to a team that has a young SG with a similar skillset and wants an expiring deal. It’s a business decision, especially if the team is willing to buy out Allen so he can return to the C’s. Win Win, as it were.
I think there is always a key point when management has to decide whether to try to squeeze one more championship out of aging formerly great players or blow the whole thing up. That’s where the Celtics are right now.
I think they should start blowing it up ASAP.
The first to go should be Allen. The future is about Rondo and whatever young pieces or picks they can get for Allen.
IS,
I agree that there does always come a point in time when the management of a great team has to decide if their “horses” have enough left to try for home again … or, if, instead, they need to be, either, [i] shot on-site [for their own good], or [ii] traded in [for a newer set of animals that are better equipped to continue your journey, whether outward or homeward bound].
IMO, however, that time for this group of Boston Celtics is not yet at-hand.
If nothing else, what a great champion has, in fact, EARNED, at least, in my book, is the RIGHT to go to Round #15 … if he’s still capable of returning punches, when he’s under a direct attack, himself, from a younger, faster, stronger, and more fit opponent.
If you are really and truly a great organization, what you DO NOT do is prematurely “throw in the towel” on a CHAMP like that … because if you do, you will live to regret it for a long, long, long, long time.
Champions don’t mind being killed … as long as it’s by a worthy opponent.
Euthanasia is not their style.
Khandor,
I understand what you are saying, but sometimes when you send them out for the 15th round they take a beating they never recover from. ;-)
If the Celtics don’t move now, IMO they are going to lose this year and make it twice as tough to rebuild next year.
The C’s could also be setting themselves up for an embarrassing first round exit given the right matchup, a la Bulls/Heat or Warriors/Mavs of a few years ago. They’re an aging team with no speed or bench that could worsen as the season progresses. Time will tell.
IS,
Unlike an aging boxing champ, however, one of the beauties involved with a team sport is that once a former set of championship-quality players has been killed off by a worthy opponent, a truly elite organization can still recover … on the back of their great legacy.
Part of what makes a great organization great, in the first place, is the knowledge and acceptance of the belief system which says:
1. WE ALL play for the name on the front of the uniform, not the 1 on the back; and,
2. An all-time great group which, exists today, will be allowed to finish together what they started …
primarily because those responsible for making the key decisions know how and what it takes to build/create a championship-quality level of performance in a collective group AND can/will be able to do it again, in the future.
3. Great teams have a natural Life Cycle and although the players will/must eventually change, The Pursuit of Excellence is what remains the same.
Question that stems from this game for everyone (I guess a little context first):
Van Gundy left Howard in even though he had something like 4 fouls in the 3rd quarter. Conventional wisdom is that you sit the player and save him for the “key” moments like the end of the game (assuming it is fairly close).
Now, in baseball, there we have the closer. However, there is much argument as to the use of the closer. For example if its the 7th inning and your team is up by one and the other team is threatening, that actually might be the time to use your closer. Yet, teams almost always wait to the 9th.
Shouldn’t it be the same in basketball? That is, forget (somewhat) how many fouls a “key” player has and the timing. As long as the game is close, you want that player out there. Not only could that make the final couple of minute moot, but there is no guarantee they actually
foul out quickly (as seen with Howard).
The C’s gave up 100+ again last nite? Is there defense slipping?