If you are fan of one of the losers in the NBA (like the Nets, T-Wolves, Pistons, etc…), your thoughts are probably already turning to the NBA draft. And judging by what people are saying, it’s likely such thoughts are focusing on John Wall. As Peter May states: “(the) Kentucky guard is the first name out of everyone’s mouth.” When we look at the performance data, though, a red flag suddenly appears. Thus far, Wall’s numbers have not been exceptional.
The 2009 Draft Again
Before we get to the numbers – and what those numbers mean – let’s acquire some perspective by reviewing the 2009 NBA draft.
Table One: Ranking the Players Selected from College in the 2009 NBA Draft
Table One reports what the players who were drafted last summer did in college in 2008-09. The players are evaluated in terms of Wins Score and PAWS40. As noted, these numbers are calculated as follows:
Win Score = PTS + REB + STL + ½*BLK + ½*AST – FGA – ½*FTA – TO – ½*PF
PAWS40 = Positions Adjusted Win Score per 40 minutes =
Win Score per 40 minutes – Average Win Score per 40 minutes at position played (with Average PAWS40 = 10.1)
As one can see, the most productive player listed in Table One was DeJuan Blair. And at the midpoint of the 2009-10 season, the most productive rookie was DeJuan Blair.
An Early Look at 2010
That being said, the link between college performance and NBA productivity is not perfect. So the following numbers – for the top college players identified by May – don’t necessarily “prove” (as if we are proving stuff) that a specific player will be a “good” or “bad” NBA player.
The first number listed for each player is Win Score per 40 minutes (taken from DraftExpress). The second number listed is PAWS40. Again, average PAWS40 is 10.1, so any numbers below that mark indicates that the player thus far has been below average (for a player drafted out of college).
- John Wall: 7.2 and 10.0
- Evan Turner: 15.1 and 16.8
- Wesley Johnson: 14.8 and 16.5
- DeMarcus Cousins: 20.4 and 18.0
- Derrick Favors: 14.3 and 11.9
- Cole Aldrich: 18.6 and 16.4
- Ed Davis: 16.4 and 14.0
- Al-Farouq Aminu: 13.4 and 13.6
- Solomon Alabi: 13.1 and 10.9
- Patrick Patterson: 12.7 and 10.3
- Greg Monroe: 12.3 and 9.9
- Jarvis Varnado: 17.7 and 15.3
- Xavier Henry: 7.8 and 9.5
Of these thirteen players, only three have been below average. And one of those three is Wall. So does that mean Wall shouldn’t be the first choice in the draft?
Well, not really. What these numbers represent – as noted above – is a red flag. Wall is supposed to be a dominant NBA player. Thus far, though, Wall hasn’t been a dominant college player. So before a team invests the first pick in Wall, someone has to explain why Wall has not dominated this year.
One possible explanation is that Wall is just a freshman. DeMarcus Cousins, though, is also a freshman. And Cousins is the most productive player listed above (and probably the player most responsible for Kentucky’s success this season). Additionally, Chris Paul – the most productive point guard in the NBA – was also above average as a freshman in college. In sum, it’s possible for a freshman to play well. Thus far, though, Wall’s numbers are not very impressive (although his game against Alabama last night – despite the six turnovers – was above average).
It’s important to emphasize that this doesn’t mean Wall will never be a good player. Again, college numbers are not a crystal ball. There is a correlation, though, between what we see in college and the pros. Although that relationship isn’t perfect, that relationship does suggest college numbers mean something.
And the something those college numbers appear to be saying is that teams that don’t select Wall can still find productive players. Cousins, Evan Turner, Wesley Johnson, and Cole Aldrich have all posted outstanding numbers this season. That means that if your favorite losing team fails to win the lottery, there’s still hope that your team can draft a productive player (of course, it’s also still possible that your team will make the wrong choice and draft an unproductive player).
- DJ
The WoW Journal Comments Policy
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
When was the last time a PFC posted a mark such as Cousins’s in his freshman season?
21.7 MPG with 54% shooting, 16.4 PPG, 10.1 REB (nearly half of those Offesnsive!) and 1.8 BLKs?
That’s ur No 1. Pick right there even if there are some character issues not to mention, with this many touches you’d expect more assists; The To and PF are high as well, but come on…
We look at these numbers and the correlations, which actually are borne out, and it raises the larger question: why does it appear that only Presti, Popovich and Morey draft with any eye towards efficiency? Jonny Flynn is a bad pick, and the Wolves are exacerbating their decision by playing Sessions off of the bench.
And why is Wall heralded as a “game-changer” in some quarters and Cousins is simply a good player.
One can’t rely entirely on the math, but it is an excellent start, and this type of GM disdain for numbers would get them fired in a normal job.
I believe the concern with Cousins was/is that he is a headcase like Tyrus Thomas (who posted an above average 0.148 himself).
Of course, all this is predicated on the presumption that PAWS is a perfect measure of playing ability (in college or the NBA).
That said, PER shows a similar story:
Cousins: 40.1
Turner: 34.3
Aldrich: 29.4
Johnson: 26.7
Favors: 25.0
Wall: 23.0 (the same as McCamey from Illinois, for instance)
What is the correlation between PER and PAWS again?
link
Cousins reminds me a lot of Zach Randolph. He has a lot of the same tools, and may be better defensively. He has the talent to be really good (See Memphis – All-Star Zach Randolph). Then there’s the Knicks/Clippers Zach Randolph who’s terrible. I think Cousins could be either of these players as a pro. In fact, as with Randolph, he’ll probably find a way to be both depending on the situation.
PER is wildly variable and doesn’t have a high-degree of correlation to player efficiency year-to-year whereas PAWS is less variable with higher correlation.
on Wall, I think he has the potential to be a pretty good player. He is extremely fast and is good at getting to the line and making his FT’s. He makes a good percentage of his shots. He rebounds well and is a good passer. He is also a good defender. So he does a lot of things well.
The thing killing his win score is his TOs. For some reason the lead guard for John Calipari teams produce a lot of turn overs (See Rose and Evans). Rose and Evans have gone down since entering the NBA. So this leads me to believe that the thing that is hurting his production the most (turnovers) will actually improve when he enters the league.
Also he is a freshman, which means he still has a lot of room to grow. As shown above Wall has produced at an average level for a college PG. With the improvement on TOs and the improvement from more experience, I can see him going from an average producer to a .150 – .2 producer. Borderline all star but not HOF.
*Rose and Evans turnovers have gone down* is what I meant to say.
Also as we can see from the chart above Tyreke Evans college win score was 9.7, which is even more below average than Wall is currently. Now we can see that Tyreke is playing at an above average level as a rookie. So there is no guarantee that Wall will improve in this way, but the trend is there.
From what I’ve studied college point guard paws40 are not as predictive as they are at the other positions. The list of below average point guards who are good nba players has proven this.
That being said Wall needs to take more time if he wants to be a good pg in college. I haven’t found a pg who turns the ball over as much as he does who went on to be productive in the nba.
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Dang, I didn’t know it linked like that but cool.
Has anyone noticed a difference in the rate of development of PGs relative to other positions?
One thing I have noticed is that a lot of very young rookie PGs come out of college without much of a mid range game and outside shot (something that PFs and Cs need not worry as much about because they score inside) . But a mid range game and outside shot is something that many NBA players improve on well into their mid 20s.
I suspect it’s also a lot more difficult to learn how to run an offense than it is to learn how to rebound and do some other things that lead to high statistical scores in college.
So perhaps the best way to judge PG talent is not on current productivity, but on the intellect, feel, court vision, quickness, athleticism and other tools they possess that typically lead to great PGs. Then just sit back and be patient.
I haven’t seen Wall play much. So I have no view on him. But I seem to recall Derrick Rose not rating spectacularly well either. Yet it was pretty easy to watch him play and know that he was (and still is) a mortal lock to become an elite PG.
IS,
I’ve found that offensive rating of point guards in college is a good indicator of how fast they become effective.
IS makes a good point. You can sit through a college game and watch a player’s shot selection and, for the most part, the shots they get in college won’t be the same ones they’ll get in the pros. Unless they’re really physically capable—quick enough to break down NBA players or strong enought to continue holding their position near the basket. Someone here tipped us to NBA’s Hotspots a few weeks ago; the last time I looked, James Harden, for example was taking a lot of shots in the paint but making only 40% of them. He’s going to have to adjust.
@Italian Stallion: Derek Rose’s presumed dominance or ability in the future isn’t a given. He dominates the ball and isn’t terribly efficient, and this point up that he is far below average.
http://dberri.wordpress.com/2010/01/29/is-derrick-rose-already-a-star/
todd2,
I think Harden is going to be outstanding. I know his shooting percentage isn’t that great right now but his overall offensive production is still 1.08 points per posession. That is above the current nba average of 1.07.
Sort of along the lines of Kevin Love who started out around this level of offensive production at this time last year. Right now he is up to 1.17 ppp.
IS,
I recall that for Derrick Rose’s freshman year, he did not rate spectacularly well for his year as a whole. However, he did improve significantly as the year went on posting a very high PAWS40 in the NCAA tourney (being a big reason why Memphis got to the finals).
Dr. Berri,
You have pointed out that Chris Paul was productive as freshman, but we are talking about possibly the greatest point guard of all time here(barring injury). Generally speaking, comparing upperclassmen to freshmen is just not a fair. There is no doubt that on average a senior is going to be quite a bit more productive than your average freshmen as they will be much more advanced in muscle, skill, and basketball knowledge. An age-adjusted, position-adjusted Win Score would be much more imformative to me than just a straight PAWS. Maybe an idea for you in a future blog post?
anyone else watching sportscenter? These “analysts” are marveling over Gasol’s play without Kobe in the lineup. Its pretty funny.
FanFeedr,
I thought Rose showed consistent improvement all last year. He started a little slow this year because he was hurting. But once he got healthy, he stepped it up to brand new level.
He’s becoming one of those rare “go to” guys that can practically take over a game down the stretch and win it single handed.
Being that he is so young and athletic, I think he’s a mortal lock to get better and eventually become an elite PG.
If he doesn’t measure up to that status on this metric it will be because it underrates his ability to score and do some other things very well.
As a Knicks fan, I would give away a body part to have him. :)
Re: Derrick Rose, has anyone charted a learning curve for players? When should a team throw in the towel?
IS,
Thing is, there’s really no time to be patient. Wall clearly needs a few years to develop his game. But he’s coming out of college this year.
So GM’s gotta make a choice now. Is it worth passing over some of the already productive big men that are available in favor of a really young PG who may or may not become so?
As a Pistons fan, I hope that our GM opts against that. It really is a big gamble.
I don’t understand the enthusiasm for Rose. The big “improvement” to his game has been hitting like 55% of his mid-range jumpers recently. Do people believe that’s sustainable? If so, why?
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