Buying a book is like buying an album.  The decision is so much easier if you can sample some of the material first.   Well, FT Press (our publisher) is giving you such a chance.  Here are three articles taken from the material in Stumbling on Wins.  If you like these, you will probably like — and should buy — the book [even if you don’t like these, for some reason we are optimistic you will still like -- and should still buy -- the rest of the book :)]:

Sports Fans vs. Traditional Economics: Why Many Economists Think the Fans are On to Something

A Century of Mistakes in Baseball

Knicks Don’t Click

- DJ

Does the Final Four Boost Your Draft Stock?  

This is the question posed by David Biderman of the Wall Street Journal.  His answer – drawn from Stumbling on Wins – is illustrated with a few examples of the link between a Final Four appearance and draft position.  He also notes perhaps the best college player left in the current Final Four.   

More Reviews?

Speaking of Stumbling on Wins (a frequent topic lately), there is another review I wished to post.  But before I get to that, I thought I should comment on the practice of posting reviews.  My sense – or perhaps it’s just my hope – is that many readers of the Wages of Wins Journal have already bought Stumbling on Wins [and if you haven’t, why not? :) ].  So posting reviews of the book is a bit like trying to sell you the car you just bought as you drive off the lot.  In other words, the reviews might seem a bit redundant in this forum.

So to avoid further redundancy, let me just post a collection of positive reviews.  For those who bought the book, you know that most of the following are found on the cover of the book.  The final review – which is longer – was just offered in the past few days.  And this final review – as I note below – offers some guidelines for people who wish to explore in more detail the topics covered in our book.

Many Reviews

“This book takes the hallowed traditions of sports decision making and pokes them with a sharp stick.”

– Henry Abbott, founder of TrueHoop, housed at ESPN.com.   

“‘Moneyball’ should have been called ‘MoneyBaseball.‘ Stumbling on Wins covers everything else. Every general manager needs to buy this book to save his owner money. Every fan needs to buy this book to know when it makes sense to yell at the general manager.”

– Darren Rovell, CNBC Sports Business Reporter

“This is an important book. Berri and Schmidt have been leaders of the revolution in the analysis of team performance in sports, in this book, they explain why coaches, players and fans cannot afford to ignore the stats if they want to win. Moneyball gave us an inkling of what is to come, but this is the real deal.”

– Stefan Szymanski, author of Soccernomics and Playbooks and Checkbooks

“Stumbling on Wins lays it all out—a roadmap of behavioral economics, that runs straight through your favorite sports arena.  Brilliant stuff, beautifully written, and sure to captivate any student of economics, or sports.”

— Justin Wolfers, Associate Professor of Business and Public Policy, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania; writer for Freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com

 “Berri and Schmidt are true pioneers of modern sports economics, proving time and again that sports are the perfect laboratory for social science research. Stumbling On Wins reveals that sports are more than entertainment; they tell us something important about ourselves.”

 – JC Bradbury, author The Baseball Economist and founder of Sabernomics

 “This book isn’t just about sports statistics. In Stumbling On Wins, Berri and Schmidt have a compelling story to tell about how people make decisions in sports, and the stats narrate the story. This is a fresh and revealing look at how decision-makers frequently miss the mark and how they can do better.”

 – Brian Burke, AdvancedNFLStats.com

This last review is from Ryan Rodenberg from “Legal Aspects of Sports Blog” and a professor at Florida State.  Ryan doesn’t just explain why he likes the book, he also explains how to maximize what can be learned from Stumbling on Wins. 

I pre-ordered this book on Amazon.com several months ago and it arrived 10 days ago. I read Wages of Wins by the same authors and was looking forward to reading their latest book. In the past several years, a number of books have used fascinating academic research as a platform for books that challenged the conventional wisdom about a multitude of issues. The most recent highly successful example of this was Malcolm Gladwell’s Outliers. Berri and Schmidt’s Stumbling on Wins does the same thing for sports, and it is a great read. In sum, the authors use findings from a number of sports economics research articles to explain why decision-makers in the sports industry may be getting it wrong. I like this approach and wanted to highlight three aspects in this review:

1. The chapters can be read quickly or slowly (or both). Here is what I mean by that – I read the book quickly over the course of several days, but then went back and perused the footnotes and accompanying website – [stumblingonwins.com] – for more detail on topics I was interested in. The footnotes contain a wealth of information. The website includes supplemental data. It was a good decision by the authors to structure the book in such way, as curious readers like me are able to see the source of the research discussed.

2. Since Moneyball by Michael Lewis, there have been a number of books and websites devoted to player ratings and metrics. Stumbling on Wins covers such player-specific issues, but also delves into other areas. The best analysis in this area is that applied to coaching and impact of certain coaches on player performance and team performance. Chapter Two is entitled Defending Isiah, but looks at a number of NBA coaches. Really interesting findings! I was able to guess some who some of the best coaches were, but others really surprised me.

3. Chapter Seven, titled Inefficient on the Field, was my favorite. Both base stealing and going for it on fourth down were discussed. The story about the high school coach in Arkansas who doesn’t punt the ball was eye-opening, as the same issue came up earlier this year in the NFL game between the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts.

The writing style is witty and reader-friendly. The book will probably appeal to sports fans the most, but it may also appeal to any decision-maker, in the sports industry or otherwise, who wants to learn about how academic research can sometimes help in business. For that reason, Stumbling on Wins is probably best categorized as both a sports book and a business book. I would recommend it for both categories. I would similarly recommend Wayne Winston’s Mathletics published last year.

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

There is some discussion on how the Milwaukee Bucks – a team many believed would be one of the worst teams in the NBA this season – suddenly have a winning record and look posed to make someone unhappy in the playoffs.  Chris Sheridan – of ESPN.com – has a story that seems to focus on coaching, the acquisition of John Salmons, and team chemistry.  Chris Mannix of SI.com has a story that focuses primarily on Scott Skiles.

Such stories seem plausible, but I think the answer is a bit more obvious.  Milwaukee is having a respectable season because…

well, for my answer I am going to direct you to Bucketsball.  Across this past week Jeremy Schmidt and I have exchanged a few e-mails on the topic of the Milwaukee Bucks.  In “Five Questions with Dave Berri” you can see my responses to Jeremy’s questions.   These answers not only cover the Bucks, but also offer a few more comments on Stumbling on Wins.  In addition to posting my answers, Jeremy did a great job of posting the standard table I usually create within his post (hmmm….wouldn’t it be great if I did that in this forum?).

I want to thank Jeremy for sending along the questions.  Hopefully fans of the Bucks (and fans in general) find the answers to be interesting.

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

This afternoon I am once again scheduled to appear on The Hays Advantage on Bloomberg Radio.  Kathleen Hays and I will be discussing the NCAA tournament as well as Stumbling on Wins.   I am schedule to be on for an hour, starting at 12pm MST (2pm EST). 

If you wish to listen, you can tune in on XM channel 129 or SIRIUS channel 130.  If you live in New York, it is 1130 on the AM dial.  Or you can simply go to their website — http://www.bloomberg.com/tvradio/radio/ — and click on the “live radio” found on the right. 

If you have a question or questions you would like Kathleen Hays to ask, please post these in the comments.  

Hope everyone has a chance to listen.  Feel free to also leave comments below in response to what you hear.

- DJ

The impact a Final Four appearance has on a player’s draft position is one of the stories Henry Abbott highlighted in his very lengthy discussion of Stumbling on Wins (currently available – as I might have mentioned — at Amazon.com, Barnes and Noble.com, and Borders.com). 

Our book reports that a player who appears in the Final Four can see his draft position improve by about 12 slots.  This effect is only seen in the year the player appears in the Final Four.  If he returns to college, and fails to return to the Final Four, the effect vanishes. And there is no link between NBA production and Final Four appearances.  So for those who believe decision-makers are perfectly rational, this would be a troubling result.

Although troubling to some traditional economists, such a result can be quite beneficial to the players lucky enough to appear in the Final Four.  And now that the Final Four is set, let’s see who might be the real winners in the 2010 Final Four.

Let’s begin with a list of players who might be drafted.  Such a list can be constructed from the following:

Chad Ford’s Top 100 (insider access required)

DraftExpress 2010 Mock

NBADraft.net 2010 Mock

These three lists provide us a list of seventeen players who participated in the Elite Eight.  Players on four of these teams – Duke, Michigan State, West Virginia, and Butler – are in position to earn the Final Four bonus.  Players on the other four teams – Baylor, Tennessee, Kentucky, and Kansas State – fell just short.

The following table reports where the players who will be in the Final Four are currently ranked. 

Table One: The Elite from the Elite Eight

As one can see, the best player in the Final Four – according to DraftExpress – is Butler’s Gordon Hayward.  Currently he is listed as the 26^th best prospect.  By appearing in the Final Four, though, his draft position could be enhanced.  It’s important to emphasize that the results from the draft model we report are simply what we see in general.  It may not hold true for any specific individual. That being said, if this result holds, Hayward will hear his name called earlier in the 2010 draft  (and therefore earn more money).

The statistics also indicate that Hayward is an above average player.  To see this point we need to consider Position Adjusted Win Score (PAWS). Specifically – as the following list indicates — we know the average Win Score at each position [from all players drafted from 1991 to 2008].

Center: 12.3

Power Forward: 12.5

Small Forward 9.9

Shooting Guard: 8.4

Point Guard: 7.3

Average across all players: 10.1

To determine PAWS40 [Position Adjusted Win Score per 40 minutes] we simply determine each player’s Win Score per 40 minutes (WS40).  We then subtract the position average from each player’s WS40 and add back the overall average.

For Hayward, this calculation would be as follows:

Hayward PAWS40 = 11.9 – 9.9 + 10.1 = 12.1

Of the players listed above, only Hayward and DeMarcus Cousins are listed as above average.  And Cousins is missing out on the Final Four.

It’s important to emphasize why Cousins is missing out on the Final Four.  Against West Virginia, the Wildcats of Kentucky missed 28 three-point shots and 13 free throws.  Had Kentucky maintained its average performance at the line they would have scored six to seven more points (Kentucky lost by seven).  And had they maintained their average performance from beyond the arc, Kentucky would have scored 21 more points.  Yes, West Virginia’s defense might have impacted Kentucky’s shooting from the field.  But it does appear that Kentucky also suffered from bad luck (i.e. sometimes the shots don’t fall). 

This bad luck will probably benefit Devin Ebanks, Da’Sean Butler, and Kevin Jones of West Virginia.   Ebanks is considered a potential first round pick while Butler and Jones are regarded as potential second round choices.  With a Final Four appearance, though, these players might be taken much higher.

Let me close by noting that I have heard that this particular result is being discussed by at least some people in the NBA.  So one might expect that although this result held in the past, it may not appear in the future.  At least, as an economist, I fully expect that once people see and understand a result it does eventually get incorporated into their thinking (our critique of traditional economics is simply that this process takes much longer than is generally argued).   

Surprisingly – in conversations with people in the NBA – I have been told otherwise.   In other words, the people I have spoken too fully expect the Final Four payday to continue. This is good news for the players who will appear in the Final Four this year.  But this may not be good news for the teams – and fans of these teams – who expend a higher draft choice on a player just because that player got lucky during March Madness.

- DJ

The WoW Journal Comments Policy

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.