Let’s take a quick break from “Stumbling on Wins Promotion week” (have you seen the promotions elsewhere?) with a comment on a story I saw a few days ago.
Last week TrueHoop offered an interview with Corey Brewer, the small forward with the Timberwolves currently in his third season. The premise of the article was that Brewer had improved; and in fact, the Timberwolves have a campaign designed to promote Brewer for the Most Improved Player award. That campaign trumpets the following quote from John Hollinger: “Brewer might be the most improved shooter in the league. Or the most improved shooter ever, for that matter…”
The article consists of a question and answer with Brewer designed to determine the source of this improvement. Issues such as Brewer’s hard work, the effort of the coaches, and even the organizational approach of the Timberwolves are all touched upon. There is only one problem with the entire discussion.
Brewer hasn’t actually improved!!!
Table One presents what Brewer has done across his first three seasons.
Table One: The First Three Seasons of Corey Brewer’s Career
In looking at these numbers it’s important to remember that Brewer played 1,803 minutes as a rookie, but only 307 minutes last season. So what he did in 2008-09 was in very limited minutes. In these limited minutes, though, Brewer posted the best numbers of his career. In fact, relative to what Brewer did as a rookie, he has taken a small step back in 2009-10.
One can’t see this, though, if one only looks at scoring. Relative to his rookie performance, Brewer has improved in 2009-10 with respect to shooting efficiency from the field, shot attempts per game, and points scored.
When we look past scoring totals, though, we see that he has declined substantially with respect to rebounds and turnovers. And although he is getting to the line more frequently, his efficiency from the charity stripe has declined as well. When we put the entire picture together – via Win Score – we see that Brewer is actually offering less than he did as a rookie.
Brewer, though, is perceived as a player who has improved. And this is because he has stepped up with respect to scoring. In essence, Brewer is benefitting from a common misperception in the NBA. Specifically – as is often noted – those who score are often believed to be the better players. Despite his improvements with respect to shooting efficiency, though, Brewer is still below average from the field. So all his shot attempts are not really helping much.
One should note that this is not the first time Brewer benefitted from a problem with player evaluation in the NBA. Brewer –as the TrueHoop article notes – was a member of the Florida Gators team that won back-to-back NCAA titles. Given the Final Four bias, it’s not surprising that Brewer managed to be chosen with the 7th pick in the 2007 draft. Brewer’s college numbers, though, were relatively poor. In fact, it appears that Florida’s success was primarily due to both Al Horford and Joakim Noah; two players who have been very productive in the NBA (as their college numbers suggested).
In sum, it appears that Brewer is benefitting from one misperception after another. As a consequence, despite his persistently poor numbers, look for Brewer to cash in on a major payday in the future.
- DJ
Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
I can’t figure out Hollinger. He ought to know that Brewer’s improvement with respect to shooting efficiency (from dreadful to not very good) isn’t worth pinning an award on.
Do you have Brewer listed as a shooting guard or a small forward? Because as a Wolves fan, I can tell you that one thing the many strange things the Wolves have done this season is to play Brewer as a shooting guard, which is necessarily going to change how is compared to his position.
What you have proven isn’t that Corey hasn’t improved, but that he has become less productive. It is very possible Corey has improved his skill set, but is being used in a role that that isn’t conducive to him being a productive NBA player. I think if you have watched a decent amount of Wolves games this year, you could come to this conclusion.
The talent level of the swingmen currently on the Wolves is very low and this has forced Corey to take on the role of the primary scoring wing man on the team. And in this role, he has shown improvement in both his shooting and his foul-drawing rate. However, his improvement in both areas still leave him quite short of the ideal talent level for a NBA wing who carries a large scoring burden.
Fortunately, that isn’t what Corey’s role should probably be. Brewer should ideally be a player who can score enough to keep opponents honest, but whose primary role is rebounding, defense and other non-scoring functions. His offensive improvement this year shows that he may be able to turn into an efficient scorer when used at a lower usage rate.
I would be hesitant to conclude that Brewer hasn’t improved when we haven’t seen him in the role that is probably best for him. I doubt his rebounding or ball handling skills have diminished, he probably just focusing more on scoring, which is a need for the team. Also, being forced into a role that he isn’t suited for (scorer) is almost certain to have a negative impact on his production.
It is important to remember that in a free-flowing game like basketball, stats can’t really tell us who the best/most talented players are, but instead who the most productive/efficient players are. Minutes, roles on team, coaching and more can have a substantial effect on a player’s production. Corey is clearly being used in a role that doesn’t match his skill set.
brgulker – Hollinger isn’t touting Brewer for the award. I remember reading that quote, he was just doing a list of improved players about a month ago. I believe he supports Durant for the MIP award.
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This is silly. Regardless of what the Timberwolves claim, the TrueHoop article merely cites that Corey Brewer has improved as a shooter; which is true. He is shooting a higher percentage.
Conflating that claim with the claim that Corey Brewer has improved overall is sloppy and misguided.
You can make your point that he hasn’t improved overall as a player, but the way your introduction is worded, it seems that you are claiming that he’s actually a worse shooter now, which is, frankly, wrong.
Kellen,
the TrueHoop article picture caption is:
‘The Minnesota Timberwolves’ third-year player isn’t a bust anymore.’
It would be silly to say that one has gone from a bust to not a bust without improving overall.
And there’s no confusion as to the meaning of the introduction if one isn’t sloppy and actually reads beyond it.
Does the fact that brewer played SF the first 2 years, and now hes played as a SG this entire year change anything? It should account for the changes in rebounding at least.