The notion that Carmelo Anthony is not Denver’s most productive player has been noted in this forum in the past. And this past year this story has remained the same. Anthony finished the 2009-10 season with a 0.112 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] and 6.1 Wins Produced. Of the eight players who played at least 1,000 minutes for the Nuggets this past season, five players – Chris Andersen, Chauncey Billups, Nene Hilario, Kenyon Martin, and Ty Lawson – posted higher WP48 marks. And Hilario, Billups, Andersen, and Martin produced more wins.
With these number in mind, consider the following first few paragraphs from a story published by Mark Kizla in the Denver Post today:
After carrying an NBA franchise and the basketball dreams of a city on his shoulders for seven long years, Nuggets forward Carmelo Anthony is beginning to show the strain.
How much more of this can Melo take?
In a 117-106 loss to Utah that put the Nuggets on the brink of elimination from the playoffs, Denver looked like the same frustrating franchise it has been for most of Anthony’s career.
If Melo can’t do it, nobody can.
“I’m trying, I’m trying to beat them. I’m trying to do everything I can in my power to beat the Jazz,” Anthony said Sunday. “But, at the end of the day, I need some help. I’m not sitting here pointing fingers or nothing. As a unit, we’ve got to do this together. I can’t do this by myself.”
This article suggests that Melo has been carrying Denver throughout his career. And again, I think the numbers suggest otherwise.
However, in this particular post-season, Anthony might have a point. Here is how Win Score per 48 minutes [WS48 or the simplified version of WP48] has changed for each of the regular rotation players on the Nuggets as we moved from the regular season to the post-season [following numbers are playoff WS48 minus regular season WS48]:
- Carmelo Anthony: +3.3
- Arron Afflalo: +2.8
- J.R. Smith: +1.1
- Kenyon Martin: -0.8
- Nene Hilario: -3.3
- Chauncey Billups: -4.2
- Ty Lawson: -5.9
- Chris Andersen: -6.1
Most players tend to see productivity decline in the playoffs. This is because players are playing better opponents and the pace of the game tends to slow. Melo, though, is playing better and the Nuggets are still losing. This tends to support the argument that Denver’s success is really not about Melo. His supporting cast is really the key to this team’s success. And even with Melo playing much better, Denver is still losing because the primary producers of wins on this team are just not playing well.
And why is this important? I picked Denver in the TrueHoop challenge. This was the hardest series to call, and I essentially was guessing. After Utah lost Andrei Kirilenko I felt very good about my choice. But then the key players on the Nuggets stopped producing. Consequently my drive to repeat is being threatened. One would think that this alone would inspire Denver’s players to try harder. I sense, though, that my plight is not being considered.
Let me close by noting that fans of Utah – a group that surrounds me in Cedar City – are very happy. Repeating the above analysis for Utah reveals that the happiness I see is primarily due to the play of Paul Millsap [6.2 increase in WS48] and Deron Williams [3.1 increase in WS48]. If these two players keep playing well – and the aforementioned Denver players keep struggling – I might continue to be the only person in Utah who is not enjoying the NBA playoffs.
- DJ
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Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.
The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score
Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:
Simple Models of Player Performance
What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics
Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.
I enjoy watching Utah and think Fesenko playing more time has been the difference for them. He is so huge he makes everbody else more effective. There is a “shortage of “huge ” people. And he is huge and very atheltic for somebody that size. He makes everybody more effective on the JAzz when he is in. Boozer can’t be doubled by another big cause Fesenko just can’t be left alone underneath. And while his offensive skills are limited he can dunk just fine.. Obviously Milsap and William are playing real well. But that is to be expected . Williams is dominating Chauncey who is showing his age. I have no statistical reason for saying Fesenko is the difference for Utah, but they are 8-0 when he has started I read today. And I remember the comeback in Portland this season and it was all about him. He effectively neutralized Camby , who is a very good player as Wages of Wins has pointed out. His plus minus, not the best statistic, I know, has been pretty good. You just can’t teach , or substitute for length in the NBA
I notice that Okur’s mid season wp48 was awful (negative). His getting injured and having his minutes replaced by better players also helps the Jazz. Maybe Melo just wants his teammates to fork over the dough for a magician to help Okur recover in time to play in this series.
Dave
Suppose Spurs nad Jazz win. That makes Hollinger the leader of the THC (True Hoop Challenge). What are you gonna do?
Make next rounds choices “by the book” or go for the underdogs? Do you maximize expectation or trade some of it for higher variation?
Unless Melo can completely take over, as we saw in Game 1, this holds true.
Once Okur got injured and stopped playing, I knew the Jazz would get better. I also noticed that Melo is scoring 30 pts on +50%FG or something. Although Birdman has the largest change in production, it feels as if Nene has completely vanished.
BTW, sorry, but many of your predicts aren’t going to put you in position to repeat. MIL just tied the series, CHI own once, etc.
Denver is what Dick Vitale calls a “doughnut” team,” nothing in the middle. Their overall record is misleading because their road record isn’t contender worthy. Is there a benefit to playing home games in the mile-high city because of the altitude?
4 games is a very limited amount of minutes. I’m not going to try to draw any conclusions from what we’ve seen so far. There are a few interesting goings on.
1. Darren Williams offensive efficiency is 134(reg. season 118).
2. Chauncey Billups offensive efficiency is 111(reg season 120)
3. Several studies have shown that team offensive performance is heavily correlated to point guard offensive performance.
Chauncey Billups per 36 min reg season
7.4 fta; 2.6to
This series
5.5fta; 3.5to
Denver Team Efficiency Differential -3.4
Deron Williams has been tearing Chauncey a new one. CB’s gotta step it up, that’s for sure.
Dave, If you get another 50:50 choice involving the team where you live, I suggest you go with the locals – they’re the supporters you meet daily!
marparker,
Is PG the most correlated then? If so, what is 2nd? And by how much so?
I’m not a statistician so I’m not sure if what I’ve read can conclusively prove anything. I don’t want to float my opinion as fact. That being said from I’ve seen the answer is yes. But, I probably haven’t seen enough nor do I know how to analyze data well enough. After all that gibberish I should probably just have said I don’t know.
The sad thing is, Billups has stated to have “step-up” his game so to speak, and that performance was in game 4, a game the Jazz won easily.
List of players Melo has played with include:
Chauncey Billups, Nene, Kenyon Martin, Allen Iverson, Marcus Camby, and Andre Miller.
That includes two of the top ten PGs of the last decade (Miller and Billups) and one of the most prolific scorers that the league has seen (Iverson). Nene, Martin and Camby are all above average defenders and decent on offense.
The second tier guys aren’t chopped liver either: JR Smith, Klieza, Joe Smith, Reggie Evans, Ruben Patterson, Najera…
How much more “help” does the guy need? The Nuggets and Anthony’s problem is not lack of help or lack of talent. It’s about lack of chemistry, ball movement, and basketball IQ.
Except that the pace of this particular series has been frenetic, far above the regular season pace. Utah and Denver have been the two highest-paced teams so far these playoffs, and by a large margin.
Utah and Denver are at 95.5, or 6 possessions more per 100 above the league average of 89.5.
As long as Carmelo (a slightly above average player) is getting a max contract like a truly elite player like LBJ or Wade, any team that he is on is unlikely to even get to the finals since they won’t be able to sign/pay enough truly elite players to contend. Maybe he can luck out one year like AI did and at least reach the finals.
ilikeflowers,
“As long as Carmelo (a slightly above average player) is getting a max contract like a truly elite player like LBJ or Wade, any team that he is on is unlikely to even get to the finals since they won’t be able to sign/pay enough truly elite players to contend.”
I spend all day long praying that Joe Johnson and Rudy Gay get resigned so the Knicks don’t make a play for them and I spend all night praying they figure out a way to use all that cap space productively in 2010 so they avoid Melo in 2011. You have no idea how tough it is to be a Knicks fan. ;-)
IS,
LOL. The Knicks just need to eliminate their GM position and sign players strictly by wp48, position, and affordability. Regardless of any defensive shortcomings of the model (real or not) it’s gonna produce better results than the Knicks signings of the past what 10 years now?
I’d love to see who wp48 says that the Knicks should sign this off-season vs who they do sign and compare the results at the end of next season.
IS,
I’m a Wizards fan and I have pretty much the same night mare.
Except we’re already paying Gilbert max money.
“And why is this important? I picked Denver in the TrueHoop challenge. ”
Classic. You should have dropped some “!!!” on the end.
Of course, since I bet Utah to win the west (at 9-1 odds), my interests are aligned with your neighbors.
Guys, how about the recent report from Georgia?
ATL are actually going to give up (trade) their first round pick so they could save (!) the 3M of guaranteed money that comes with this aforementioned pick; To what end? you guessed it – they’ll use it to make damn sure (bird rights and all) they can resign J.J for another max deal…
Considering that this deal will probably last till J.J is 33-34 (he’ll be 29 this coming June), that’s gonna hurt. Not an expert on the salary cap and it’s derivatives, but considering next season will be his 10th as a pro, that’s one costly contract, or rather – costly decision-making.
LBJ is in a league of his own. At this point, you can’t even mention Kobe or Wade in the same breath. Carmelo – “a slightly above average player”? Really? There are only two legitimate arguments for better small forwards in the league – Kevin Durant or Dirk Nowitski. I guess being in the top 3 isn’t “elite” status.
roni,
Yes, really.
First, I reject your opinions on legitimacy and top 3 status which are presented without evidence or actual arguments.
Second, I didn’t mention Kobe.
Third, I will mention Wade in the same breath because he is legitimately elite (production worthy of a max contract @0.300 wp48) as is LBJ. I didn’t say he was as good.
Fourth, better and comparable SF’s and hybrid SF/PF’s according to wp48 (which is supported by evidence):
LBJ
Durant
Paul Pierce
Jamario Moon
Maggette
Jamison
That was easy, I could present more – especially if I expanded the list to include more PF/SF hybrids or PF’s who shoot three’s fairly often. Note that Carmelo is himself a SF/PF hybrid.
Fifth, even if he was the best SF in the league, which he isn’t, a wp48 of 0.160 still wouldn’t be elite. Your team would always wind up short in the playoff’s if they’re giving a non-elite player a max contract as Denver does and has.
Sixth, he has a beautiful and complete scoring skill set, but that doesn’t make him elite when he doesn’t generate elite production.
I agree with you about the necessity of having some statistics to back up my argument since two person’s ability to interpret basketball is based on knowledge and experience – in this case the only level playing field for you and I to play is the field of statistical analysis.
Based on statistical analysis done by hoopsstats.com, Melo is rated #3 among SF and #14 overall in terms of effeciency.
So I guess the only question is which statistical method is more accurate – WP48 or Hoopstats?
The other question is what is “elite” status?
Roni,
The efficiency measure you are noting is NBA Efficiency. This measure has about the same ability to explain wins as the Player Efficiency Rating. Both metrics do not do as good a job of explaining wins as Wins Produced. And has been noted in this forum (and in Stumbling on Wins), there is a theoretical reason why the efficiency measures do poorly.
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