Readers of Stumbling on Wins – and The Wages of Wins – will find the following story from Kevin Arnovitz (of TrueHoop) to be extremely familiar (I am posting the entire Arnovitz column):

Last night at Staples Center, the Clippers lost their 20th game in 24 outings. There is no shortage of factors to explain just how miserable the Clippers have been over the past six weeks: The departure of Marcus Camby, nagging injuries to key players, an interim coach pacing the sidelines.

But one reason that players, coaches and management continue to cite is the unusual number of players on the roster with expiring contracts. After the Clippers’ 117-94 loss to Dallas, interim head coach Kim Hughes tried to account for his team’s careless play:

In late-season scenarios when you have as many free agents as we do, human nature takes effect sometimes. They look for points instead of the team first. That bothered me tonight. We had some guys looking for points too much. That should never occur, but it did occur. It’s not right, but it did happen. It’s not the way I like to play basketball, but when you have as many free agents as we do, I think it’s going to happen at times.

I don’t doubt the veracity of Hughes’ comments. Anyone who’s been unfortunate enough to spend a substantial portion of their life over the past two months watching Hughes’ team can affirm what he’s saying. There are a bunch of guys on the Clippers roster who, at times, have acted as personal mercenaries, throwing up shots without even pretending to survey the floor for other opportunities. The substance of what Hughes and others around the team are saying is correct, but the underlying premise is problematic. The implication here is that a guy should play a losing brand of basketball in order to advance his career.

Consider that for a second.

In an effort to secure more money in the free agency market, players are jacking up shots with impunity, presumably to tally more points, irrespective of how efficiently those points are scored. The Clippers, who resided comfortably among the Top 5 teams in assist rate for much of the season, have plummeted in that category over the past few weeks. Hughes says that human nature is driving players’ motivation to score points at the expense of team-oriented play. But in a rational universe, shouldn’t a team composed of players looking to get paid be more efficient? Shouldn’t human nature intuitively drive a player in search of a fat contract to show off the full breadth of his game to potential buyers?

Unfortunately, NBA free agency isn’t a very rational market. Points per game and scoring in general are still the gold standards when sizing up available players. With a few possible exceptions — those teams have been enumerated here at TrueHoop — those are the stats tossed out during negotiations between agents and management.

Until teams start utilizing smarter data to approximate a player’s value in free agency — things like efficiency stats, true shooting percentage, tools that measure defense — expect more unwatchable basketball from teams whose players have paydays as their primary motivations.

Let me add one observation… The Wages of Wins briefly made the Hughes free agents argument in 2006.  Stumbling on Wins goes beyond the free agent market and emphasizes how scoring totals drive a number of other player evaluations (allocation of minutes, the NBA draft, voting for awards). So we can understand why players choose to fire up ill-advised shots.  What Hughes is arguing, though, is that decision-makers in the NBA – the very decision-makers in the NBA who reward inefficient scoring – know the impact the over-valuation of scoring has on player behavior.  So why can’t these very same decision-makers just stop themselves from over-valuing inefficient scoring?  Clearly the players don’t think the decision-makers can stop themselves.  Going forward it will be interesting to see when (or if) the valuation of NBA players changes. 

By the way, I only wish Kevin would have posted this story before we finished our book.  It’s really a story that belongs in Stumbling on Wins.

- DJ

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Let’s take a quick break from “Stumbling on Wins Promotion week” (have you seen the promotions elsewhere?) with a comment on a story I saw a few days ago.

Last week TrueHoop offered an interview with Corey Brewer, the small forward with the Timberwolves currently in his third season.  The premise of the article was that Brewer had improved; and in fact, the Timberwolves have a campaign designed to promote Brewer for the Most Improved Player award.  That campaign trumpets the following quote from John Hollinger: “Brewer might be the most improved shooter in the league.  Or the most improved shooter ever, for that matter…”

The article consists of a question and answer with Brewer designed to determine the source of this improvement.  Issues such as Brewer’s hard work, the effort of the coaches, and even the organizational approach of the Timberwolves are all touched upon.  There is only one problem with the entire discussion.

Brewer hasn’t actually improved!!!

Table One presents what Brewer has done across his first three seasons.

Table One: The First Three Seasons of Corey Brewer’s Career

In looking at these numbers it’s important to remember that Brewer played 1,803 minutes as a rookie, but only 307 minutes last season.  So what he did in 2008-09 was in very limited minutes.  In these limited minutes, though, Brewer posted the best numbers of his career.  In fact, relative to what Brewer did as a rookie, he has taken a small step back in 2009-10.

One can’t see this, though, if one only looks at scoring.  Relative to his rookie performance, Brewer has improved in 2009-10 with respect to shooting efficiency from the field, shot attempts per game, and points scored. 

When we look past scoring totals, though, we see that he has declined substantially with respect to rebounds and turnovers.  And although he is getting to the line more frequently, his efficiency from the charity stripe has declined as well.  When we put the entire picture together – via Win Score – we see that Brewer is actually offering less than he did as a rookie.

Brewer, though, is perceived as a player who has improved.  And this is because he has stepped up with respect to scoring.  In essence, Brewer is benefitting from a common misperception in the NBA.  Specifically – as is often noted – those who score are often believed to be the better players.  Despite his improvements with respect to shooting efficiency, though, Brewer is still below average from the field.  So all his shot attempts are not really helping much. 

One should note that this is not the first time Brewer benefitted from a problem with player evaluation in the NBA.  Brewer –as the TrueHoop article notes – was a member of the Florida Gators team that won back-to-back NCAA titles.  Given the Final Four bias, it’s not surprising that Brewer managed to be chosen with the 7^th pick in the 2007 draft.  Brewer’s college numbers, though, were relatively poor.  In fact, it appears that Florida’s success was primarily due to both Al Horford and Joakim Noah; two players who have been very productive in the NBA (as their college numbers suggested).

In sum, it appears that Brewer is benefitting from one misperception after another.  As a consequence, despite his persistently poor numbers, look for Brewer to cash in on a major payday in the future.

- DJ

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

Mark Spears – of Yahoo! Sports – asks…Oh, Canada: Has Bosh played his final game?

Although the story begins with Chris Bosh’s injury and the fact he may leave Toronto this summer, the story get interesting (at least for me) when it focuses on Bosh’s current teammates.

The following three paragraphs get at the essence of the article (again, at least for me):

“As silly as this may sound, with Chris going down,” Raptors point guard Jarrett Jack told reporters in Cleveland, “it creates an opportunity for somebody to step up.”

That somebody could be the same somebody the Raptors might have to lean upon should Bosh leave this summer: Andrea Bargnani.

Hedo Turkoglu has been a disappointment since signing a $53 million contract last summer and Jose Calderon’s production and minutes have decreased this season. Bosh’s departure would give the Raptors some salary-cap room to sign another free agent – or bring back a package of players in a sign-and-trade deal – but the team’s best chance to sustain any type of success may have to come from within. At 24, Bargnani is still young enough to reach some of the potential the Raptors saw when they made him the No. 1 overall pick of the 2006 draft.

Before I comment on these paragraphs, let me just present the standard data:

Table One: The Toronto Raptors after 78 games in 2009-10

As Table One reports, Bosh leads this team in Wins Produced (not surprisingly).  And the other players on this team have produced less than 23 wins.  So losing Bosh is a blow to this team (a blow that would be mitigated if Calderon was playing better).

After noting the problems with Bosh and Calderon, though, Spears makes a couple of observations that I would question.  The first involves Hedo Turkoglu, who Spears refers to as a “disappointment.”  Turkoglu – who the Raptors signed to a $54 million contract this past summer – was counted on to help turn the Raptors into a contender.  This seemed like a reasonable expectation to many since Turkoglu did play in the NBA Finals last year.  But this year Turkoglu has only produced 3.6 wins.  Such production hardly transforms Toronto into a top NBA team.

Is such production, though, a disappointment?  As Table One notes, had Turkoglu maintained what he did last year the Raptors production of wins would only have increased by 1.3 victories.  In other words, this team would still be struggling to the make the playoffs in the Eastern Conference.   As I noted last summer, Turkoglu’s career WP48 after the 2008-09 season was only 0.105.  This year – at the age of 30 – he is a bit below what he did last year and his career average. But the difference isn’t that large, and consequently, no one should really be that disappointed.   Or at least, I don’t think one should be disappointed when something expected actually happens.

Turkoglu was not the only major financial move the Raptors made last summer.  Toronto also gave a significant extension to Andrea Bargnani.  As the Spears article notes, there is still some expectation in Toronto that Bargnani is going to develop into a productive NBA player.  In fact, Spears thinks that Bargnani’s age (he is only 24) means there is still time for him to reach his “potential.”

If we look at Bargnani’s performance across this past year, though, it appears Bargnani isn’t improving much.  As Table One indicates, Bargnani’s WP48 in 2008-09 was -0.026.  This year his mark is -0.012.  Yes, that’s better.  But it’s far from a mark of a player who is helping a team win games.  

And it seems unlikely Bargnani is going to make a significant leap in the future.  He has already played 297 NBA games and 8,594 minutes.  Furthermore, it appears NBA players generally stop improving around the age of 24 and 25.  So at this point, is it likely Bargnani is going to develop into a productive player?

I think the answer is no. Certainly it’s possible.  But it’s not likely.  And that means, if Bosh departs the Raptors are in trouble. The players the team invested in – Turkoglu and Bargnani – are not likely to produce many wins in the future.  Plus, if the Raptors make the playoffs it will not have a lottery pick to build upon.  All of this suggests that once again I am Dashing Hope in Toronto (as I did last summer). 

Let me close, though, with a tiny silver lining. Last year the Raptors completely changed their roster.  Bosh, Bargnani, and Calderon are the only players left from 2008-09.  Although the make-over didn’t make much difference this year, the Raptors could try a similar approach again.  Eventually, if they keep changing players, they might just stumble upon some players capable of producing wins.  Yes, that isn’t much to pin your hopes upon.  But sometimes, stumbling around can get you someplace. 

- DJ

Our research on the NBA was summarized HERE.

The Technical Notes at wagesofwins.com provides substantially more information on the published research behind Wins Produced and Win Score

Wins Produced, Win Score, and PAWSmin are also discussed in the following posts:

Simple Models of Player Performance

Wins Produced vs. Win Score

What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say

Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Finally, A Guide to Evaluating Models contains useful hints on how to interpret and evaluate statistical models.

Across the past few days I have completed two interviews with different web sites.

Five Questions with Dave Berri (at Bucksketball)

Tailgate Talks: David Berri of Wages of Wins (at Gapers Block)

The comments in this forum have indicated that people enjoy the Q&A format.  But I have also noticed that this format doesn’t seem to lead to many additional comments. 

We now have a third opportunity with this approach. Evan – who frequently comments in this forum – has a blog about Texas politics.  And this past week he sent me some questions about Stumbling on Wins.  My answers – which focus on some broader themes in the book — have now been posted at Rick Perry vs. The World:

Interview with David Berri, author of _Stumbling on Wins

Once again, I encourage everyone to read the interview and post some comments (at Evan’s site and/or here). 

- DJ

Brian Lauvray – of Gapers Block (a web publication focused on Chicago) and Tailgate (the sports section of Gapers Block) – recently sent me a series of questions about the Chicago Bulls.  My answers – which run about 2,000 words — have now been posted by Brian at Gapers Block.

Tailgate Talks: David Berri of Wages of Wins

These answers include the standard team analysis posted in this forum.  And you will note that Brian does a much better job of incorporating this table in his post (relative to how I get these tables into a post). 

I would encourage everyone to head over to Gapers Block.  And if you like what you see, leave a comment or two [if you don’t like it, though, you don’t have to leave a comment :) ].

- DJ

P.S. Brian also notes that a review of Stumbling on Wins will soon be posted as well.  I will link to that when it goes on-line.