For those who are not making a review of the blogs of The Wages of Wins Network a part of their day, here are some wonderful stories that have been offered in just the past week:

Let’s start at NYK Mistakes. Andrew Shookhoff recently made the following observation about Carmelo Anthony: My dad says you need to factor in that Carmelo Anthony can “get his shot off”  Interesting is that in games where Carmelo doesn’t play, his teammates take more shots than normal.  Andrew’s observation is extremely important.  When “star” players are not available, other players do tend to take the shots.  Such analysis should be offered each time people discuss the impact of scorers in the NBA.

Arturo Galletti – of Arturo Silly Little Stats — has a series of posts called 30 to 16 to 1.  These posts are built upon what Arturo call his “half baked notion”.  Specifically “ the half baked notion tells us that a good deep team filled with average and above average players will get you in the playoffs but to get far in the playoffs you need your wins to be concentrated in your Top 6.”  With this notion in mind, Arturo has been offering comments on a variety of NBA teams.  All of this analysis has now been gathered into a single page: 30 to 16 to 1: 2010 NBA Playoffs review (Half Baked-Style) & Predicting the playoffs. 

Andres Alvarez – of Nerd Numbers – is obviously a fan of the Denver Nuggets.  And he has recently been discussing the potential departure of Carmelo Anthony.  A few days ago I gave him a challenge.  As Andres notes: “ The challenge presented was to see if I could find a situation that would make Denver, their trade partner and me happy! Let’s say Denver uses Win Shares as their metric of choice. They want to trade Carmelo but get back a player as good or better in Win Shares. What if they luck into a team that uses PER. Can they make a trade such that the PER team thinks they win, Denver thinks they win and that also makes me happy? In more exact terms

• The Trade Team gets Melo without giving up a player with a PER greater than 18.0 ( PER ranks 18.0 as a solid second option)
• Denver gets player in return that has a WS48 of greater than 0.140
• I get a player in return that has a WP48 of greater than 0.150 (my standards are high!)
• I get a player that will not be over 31 when the 2010-2011 Season ends.
• Denver, the Trade Team and I only want players that played at least 500 minutes in 09-10.

Andres actually found several trades that fit this criteria.  So it is possible for Denver to turn the “Melo Melodrama” into a significant opportunity to improve.

Andres is not the only one proposing trades for his favorite team.  Devin Digham – at NBeh? – has been proposing trades for the Toronto Raptors.   Like Andres, Devin establishes several criteria for any proposed trade.  Despite a lengthy list of conditions, Devin uncovered twelve potential transactions that can improve the Raptors. 

Finally, Ty Willihnganz – of Courtside Analyst – has been providing posts examining NBA history. His latest looks at the Kareem Abdul-Jabbar years in Milwaukee.  Those who understand the history of the NBA box score know that all the elements we see in today’s box score were not there prior to 1977.  And Kareem was only in Milwaukee prior to this point.  Despite this issue, Ty has still managed to analyze these Bucks teams.  To see how he did this, click on over.

Let me close by emphasizing that I am just touching on some of the work being done in the network.  Hopefully everyone is enjoying all of this work as much as I am.

- DJ

Ian Levy is a Third-Grade teacher by day and amateur basketball analyst by afternoon. (He usually sleeps at night.) Ian suffers from a rare psychological condition known as Anti-Homeritis which renders him incapable of rooting for hometown teams. He grew up in Upstate New York and has therefore been a lifelong Indiana Pacers fan. He writes his own basketball blog, Hickory High, and is a contributor at IndyCornrows. Ian currently lives in Boise, Idaho, where he roots against the Boise State Broncos.

By completing a four-team trade and acquiring Darren Collison and James Posey, the Pacers finally accomplished their stated summer goal of a point guard upgrade.  The prize for the Pacers was Collison, a young, speedy point guard who should be able to step in and start next season. As part of the trade, the Pacers sent Troy Murphy to New Jersey. Lost in the excitement of the Collison acquisition is the tremendous loss of Murphy’s production.

Views on Murphy’s value vary widely among Pacer fans. Those who are familiar with The Wages of Wins and Wins Produced are generally the fans who appreciate and recognize Murphy’s worth to a team. Murphy was among the most productive front court players in the league last season, posting a WP48 of 0.281 and producing 13.7 Wins over the course of the season. Murphy has obvious limitations at the defensive end, but is an extremely efficient scorer and a very strong rebounder. Murphy scored 1.10 Point Per Shot last season and grabbed 15.1 Reb/48. His 28.1% Defensive Rebound Rate over the past three seasons was bested by only Carlos Boozer, Dwight Howard, Joel Pryzbilla and Marcus Camby. Replacing him is going to be no small task.

And at first glance, it looks like the Pacers are not going to be able to complete this task. To illustrate this point, let’s take a look at the Pacers’ roster for the upcoming season.  The following table reports for these players minutes played, WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] and Wins Produced numbers from last season for each returning player.

Although these numbers are unsettling, we must remember that the Pacers’ roster is still unsettled. Lance Stephenson’s recent legal problems make him a question mark to start the season. Second round pick Magnum Rolle hasn’t been signed yet, despite all indications that he will be joining the team. The Pacers have also discussed a buyout with T.J. Ford, and are reportedly looking to acquire another experienced front court player through free agency or a trade. If you do the math you’ll see 16 players on the roster, meaning at least one player on this list won’t be with the team next year.

That being said, without Murphy’s production the Pacers’ cupboard has been looks as if has been left quite bare. The team did well to acquire two above-average players for Murphy, but the 13.7 wins he produced last year will be sorely missed, as the returning players on the roster produced only 22.3 wins last season. Despite the loss of Murphy, the situation is not quite as dire as it looks.

The returning players totaled only 18,041 Minutes Played last season, leaving roughly 1,600 minutes available. Assuming individual per-minute production stays the same, those free minutes — and a re-allocation of other minutes — makes the team’s potential Win Projection look slightly rosier. Re-allocating the minutes for next season, could put more productive players on the floor, as well as allowing some players to spend more time at their natural position. Below is a rough approximation of what the numbers might look like for next season (I used estimates for the WP48 totals of rookies Lance Stephenson, Paul George and Magnum Rolle and some WP48 numbers were changed because of position adjustments).

This prediction has the Pacers winning roughly 33 games. Even with a little leeway in the numbers, this puts the Pacers in essentially the same place they finished last season (32 wins). So, by moving some minutes around the Pacers can theoretically off-set the loss of Troy Murphy. Despite the excitement about roster changes, the Pacers will be entering next season in a familiar position, relying on players to make large jumps in individual production in order to push the team to the next level.

The Pacers have had a relatively poor record with player development over the past few seasons, but there are reasons to feel optimistic.

• Darren Collison is entering his second season and will likely be the named the starting point guard to begin the season. With a 0.100 WP48, Collison was above average for a rookie, and provided average production from a point guard overall. There is every reason to think he will make some improvements in his second season.
• Tyler Hansbrough missed significant time due to injury last season, but by all accounts will be healthy to begin this year. Hansbrough posted some strong numbers last season, but his WP48 was dragged down by his incredibly low FG% (only 36%). If he can push this number above 40%, he should be able to contribute much more effectively as a back-up power forward.
• Danny Granger struggled shooting the ball last season, especially on 3PTs. Hopefully, being surrounded by more offensive weapons will allow him to take better shots and score the ball more efficiently. In addition spending more time at small forward could help his numbers.
• Brandon Rush and Roy Hibbert both improved from their rookie to their sophomore season. Rush improved his WP48 from 0.000 to 0.076. Hibbert went from -0.077 to 0.007. Even modest additional improvements on both of their parts could account for an extra win or two. (Look for big things in particular from Roy Hibbert, who was much more effective last season when he was paired with any Power Forward besides Troy Murphy.)
• Josh McRoberts also improved dramatically last season, pushing his WP48 from 0.069 to 0.135. If he can continue to rebound the ball well — and increase his FG% — he should be a solid power forward replacement for Troy Murphy.

The Pacers will probably not be challenging the upper-echelon in the Eastern Conference next season, but some modest individual player improvement and a thoughtful distribution of minutes could push them towards a win total in the high 30s.  And this might keep them in the chase for the 8^th playoff spot. In addition, a number of expiring contracts give the team the potential of making a move before or during the season.

As in the past the team will enter a season needing many things to go their way in order to stay competitive. And once again, Pacer fans will be left hoping that their team can perform better than they look on paper.

- Ian Levy

Okay, time for another comment on Carmelo (sorry if this is getting redundant).

A few days ago – at Huffington Post — I noted that Melo was not nearly as productive as his scoring suggests (quoting Tom Haberstroh of ESPN.com along the way).  And I elaborated on this observation in this forum.  Furthermore, Andres Alvarez has been commenting on possible trade scenarios for the Nuggets while Carl Bialik of the Wall Street Journal has looked at a variety of statistical measures and reached the same conclusion: There will be life in Denver after Carmelo.

Despite all these voices essentially making the same point, George Karl – the head coach of the Nuggets – still wants Carmelo to sign the extension and stay.  And Andrew Feinstein – of Denver Stiff (a very good blog dedicated to the Denver Nuggets) – has written an open letter to Melo where Feinstein essentially begs Anthony to stay.

The fans of Carmelo appear to fear a repeat of the “LeBron scenario”.  Essentially, a star player strings a franchise along until he finally leaves his team.  This departure ultimately leaves a team much worse off.

For the Cavaliers, this scenario clearly played out.  LeBron produced 27.2 wins – while averaging 29.2 points per game — for the Cavaliers last season.  This mark led all NBA players.  Such production would have been difficult to replace in a trade.  So even if Cleveland knew of LeBron’s intentions and traded him last season, the Cavaliers would have probably been worse off.

Will this same scenario play out in Denver?  Carmelo Anthony scored 28.2 points per game for the Nuggets.  But his overall production (again, as noted at Huffington Post) was far less than LeBron.  This means that the Nuggets have actually been given a tremendous opportunity.  Other NBA teams think Carmelo is a very productive player.  After all – as often noted in this forum – scoring dominates player evaluations in the NBA.  But since Melo really isn’t as productive as his scoring suggest, he can be traded to a team for players who actually are quite productive.  In other words, Denver can actually use Melo to get better. 

Remember, this is essentially what the team did when it traded away Allen Iverson for Chauncey Billups (a move that clearly worked for Denver and clearly did not work for Detroit).  If the Nuggets follow this blueprint, Denver can actually build a team that can contend in the West.

So here is my basic message for fans of the Nuggets.  Don’t look with dismay on the possibility that Melo might depart.  No, you should be hoping he doesn’t sign that extension.  If he does, Denver is going to once again commit substantial payroll cap space to a player who is really not that productive.  And building a championship team in Denver will just be harder.

- DJ

P.S. By the way, the next post will not mention Carmelo Anthony.  We have two submissions — examining the Pacers and Rockets — that will appear very soon.

Tracy McGrady has finally found a home.  The league scoring champion in 2002-03 and 2003-04 has landed with the same team that recently employed the scoring champion from 1998-99, 2000-01, 2001-02, and 2004-05.  Yes, T-Mac – following the same path recently blazed by Allen Iverson – is going to MoTown.

The Answer’s stay in Detroit was hardly memorable. Joining a team that won 58 games in 2007-08, Iverson and the Pistons finished with only 39 wins in 2008-09.  But after winning only 27 games in 2009-10, the Pistons have once again turned to a former scoring champion.

The hiring of a former scoring champion is actually a familiar story in Detroit.  In the mid-1980s the Pistons acquired Adrian Dantley from the Utah Jazz (a story told in this forum back in 2007). And in the late-1970s, the Pistons acquired Bob from the Boston Celtics.

Who is Bob?  Basketball-Reference reports an abundance of information on each NBA player.  Included in all the stats is each player’s nickname.  For example, Tracy Lamar McGrady Jr. is also known as T-Mac.  And Robert Allen McAdoo Jr. was better known as Bob. 

Bob? Not B-Mac?  You would think a player who led the NBA in scoring in 1973-74, 1974-75, and 1975-76 could have done better in the nickname department.  

Although nicknames are fun, these are not the focus of our story.  No, what we want to do is take a look back at the career of B-Mac (I mean Bob) and see what lessons this can teach T-Mac.

From Productive Scorer to Unproductive Winner

Our Bob story begins with the tale told by Wins Produced.  McAdoo entered the NBA in 1972.  The 1972-73 season was the last NBA season before the league tracked steals, blocked shots, offensive rebounds, and defensive rebounds.  So calculating Wins Produced before 1973 is difficult. Starting in 1973-74, the box score that we know today – with the exception of turnovers for individual players (turnovers for individuals was added in 1977) – was complete.  So if we can guess how many turnovers a player committed, we can calculate Wins Produced.

For McAdoo we know his turnovers-per-minutes in 1977-78.  So if we assume he turned the ball over at the same rate before that season, we can then calculate Wins Produced.  And consequently we can report McAdoo’s Wins Produced from 1973-74 to the end of his career.

According to Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes], McAdoo’s best season was 1973-74.  That was the only season he managed to produce at a rate that doubled the average performance at his position (average WP48 is 0.100).  Although McAdoo offered less after 1973-74, he remained an above average player as long as his home was within the state of New York. 

In 1979, though, the Boston Celtics – without consulting Red Auerbach or player-coach Dave Cowens – acquired McAdoo from the New York Knicks. McAdoo averaged twenty points per game for the Celtics.  His overall production, though, was quite low.  And in September of 1979 he was sent to the Detroit Pistons. 

Here is how that transaction is described at Basketball-Reference.com:

September 6, 1979: Traded by the Boston Celtics to the Detroit Pistons for a 1980 1st round draft pick (Rickey Brown) and a 1980 1st round draft pick (Joe Barry Carroll). This exchange was arranged as compensation for Boston signing veteran free agent M.L. Carr on 1979-07-24.

About a year later we see the following transaction at Basketball-Reference.com reported for Joe Barry Carroll:

September 9, 1980: Traded by the Boston Celtics (as a 1980 1st round draft pick) with a 1980 1st round draft pick (Rickey Brown) to the Golden State Warriors for Robert Parish and a 1980 1st round draft pick (Kevin McHale).

Just to recap:  Bob McAdoo is forced upon Red Auerbach.  Auerbach, though, manages to turn a player he didn’t want into M.L. Carr, Robert Parish, and Kevin McHale.  Yes, McAdoo clearly helped the Celtics.

As for the Pistons…. well, McAdoo really never did much.  In 1979-80 he appeared in 58 games. Yes, he did average 21.1 points per game.  But McAdoo only produced 0.9 wins with a WP48 of 0.020.

Unfortunately, most of his teammates weren’t much better.  The Pistons in 1979-80 only won 16 games.  Dick Vitale began the season as the team’s head coach, but departed after just twelve games (and four of these victories).  Vitale never coached again in the NBA (not sure what happened to him).  Looking at the individual players we do see that Bob Lanier produced 5.4 wins before he was sent to the Milwaukee Bucks for Kent Benson (who produced in the negative range for the Pistons that season).  John Long and Terry Tyler also combined to produce 13.1 wins.  But after the Tyler-Long-Lanier trio, the remaining Pistons combined to produce less than one win.

The next season wasn’t much better.  The Pistons won 21 games, with McAdoo only played in six games.  And then in March of 1981 he was finally waived.  So the Pistons surrendered the number one pick in the 1980 draft for a player who ultimately produced less than one win for the team.

The McAdoo story – from Bob’s perspective – got better after he left Detroit.  After playing briefly for New Jersey, McAdoo was traded to the LA Lakers in December of 1981.  In LA, McAdoo’s reputation was transformed.  Here is how his time in LA is described in his official bio at NBA.com.

On Christmas Eve, 1981, the Lakers surprised McAdoo and most observers by acquiring his rights from the Nets for cash and a second-round draft pick.

The move, widely questioned at the time, paid off for both the player and the team. McAdoo discovered he could flourish in the role of substitute, and the Lakers used his contributions off the bench to win the 1982 NBA Championship.

“Every place I went, I was supposed to be the franchise-saver,” McAdoo recalled of his unhappy wanderings in the Dallas Morning News in 1984. “An awful lot of pressure went with that. I was supposed to do all the scoring and all the rebounding. I was tired of losing and tired of being traded.”

With the spotlight off him, McAdoo blossomed as a Laker. In 1982-83 he averaged 15.0 ppg, although he spent 32 games on the disabled list with a toe injury. The Lakers reached the NBA Finals again, but they were trounced in four straight by a powerful Philadelphia 76ers team.

In 1983-84 McAdoo’s 13.1 ppg led all nonstarters in the NBA, even though he played fewer than 21 minutes per game. The Lakers rolled through the regular season and the playoffs, meeting the Boston Celtics in the NBA Finals. In a classic seven-game series the Celtics prevailed, despite McAdoo’s 14.0 ppg in the postseason.

Los Angeles returned to the Finals in 1985 for the fourth time in McAdoo’s four Lakers seasons. This time the club would not be denied, exacting revenge against the Celtics in six games. McAdoo averaged 10.5 ppg during the regular season and 11.4 in the playoffs.

If we look at the above productivity numbers we see that McAdoo actually did very little for the Lakers.  His per-minute scoring numbers were actually similar to what he did earlier in his career.  McAdoo, though, did far less rebounding and made fewer trips to the free throw line. He was also more prone to commit fouls and had fewer assists.  In sum, in LA McAdoo just focused on scoring and ignored most other aspects of the game.

Despite this drop-off in overall production, McAdoo is considered a successful player in LA and a less successful player in Buffalo.  Of course it is obvious why the perspective on McAdoo would change.  In LA – where he got to play with Magic Johnson – McAdoo got to play for a winner.  In Buffalo – where he didn’t get to play with Magic (or anyone who was that productive) – McAdoo got to play for a loser.   And since we know people tend to think players on winners are “good” and players on losers are “bad”, it is easy to see why McAdoo’s reputation changed for the better even as his overall production declined.

Lessons for McGrady

Bob McAdoo’s career appears quite similar to what we have thus far seen from T-Mac.  Consider T-Mac’s career Wins Produced numbers.

These numbers are similar to what we saw from McAdoo.  Early in his career, T-Mac was a very productive scorer.  As he entered his late twenties, though, his production declined.   These are not the only similarities.  Like McAdoo, T-Mac’s most productive seasons did not end with playoff success.  And like McAdoo, T-Mac has taken his game to Motown, where he can expect to be part of a loser.

Given these similarities, it is clear what McGrady has to do.  He needs to focus on his scoring in Detroit. If he can prove to people that he can still score, then his time in Detroit will be a success. No, scoring for Detroit probably won’t help the Pistons win much.  But McGrady only has a one-year contract with the Pistons. If T-Mac scores in Motown, he can score another contract with a contender.

If McGrady can become a scorer off the bench for a contender, especially a contender that advances far in the playoffs, T-Mac — just like Bob — can see his reputation improve in the twilight of his career.

It is important to emphasize that from McGrady’s perspective, the other aspects of the game need to be ignored.  The McAdoo story (a story confirmed by study after study of player evaluations in the NBA) teaches that scoring keeps you employed in the NBA.  And if you score for a winner – even if you are not really producing many wins – people will think you are a winner.  This was true for Bob, and it is likely to be true for T-Mac as well.

- DJ