And it just grows and grows. Devin Digham – who wrote the review of the Toronto Raptors a few days ago – has now created his own blog. NBeh? is going to offer analysis – from the Wins Produced perspective – of the lone NBA team in Canada. Devin’s first post offers even more commentary on what the Raptors did in 2009-10.
Devin’s first post at NBeh? begins with the Wins Produced numbers from Andres Alvarez. And then these numbers are adjusted for the positions Toronto’s players probably played. As has been noted in the past, Andres employs an algorithm (which primarily looks at position designations, player height, and body mass index) to allocate players across positions. Let me offer a few thoughts for people who wish to follow the example provided by Devin.
Let me start by noting why Andres employs an algorithm to assign position played. Ideally one should think about a team in assigning position played. And such a process would let you know that Chuck Hayes of the Rockets – who is only 6ft. 6in tall – plays center for Houston; and not shooting guard or small forward as his height suggests.
But if one has to think about each roster before calculating Wins Produced, we are then left with the same situation we had before Andres figured out how to automate the calculation. In other words, it’s the position algorithm that allows us to have automated numbers. And this means that next season we will have Wins Produced numbers for every player constant updated throughout the season (which is better than everyone just waiting for me to analyze each team myself).
In analyzing the numbers from Andres, though, one has to note that the position assignments may not be perfect. Thankfully, though, it’s fairly easy to make a correction.
Back to 2007 I posted (at wagesofwins.com and now at stumblingonwins.com) a step-by-step guide to calculating Wins Produced (a guide that now has a link posted here on the right). As people who have reviewed these steps know, at the step just prior to reaching WP48 one calculates Adjusted Production per 48 minutes [ADJ P48]. This number considers all the player’s box score statistics (weighted in terms of wins), as well as team defensive variables and the teammates’ production of blocked shots and assists. In other words, ADJ P48 is everything except the position adjustment.
The position adjustment involves subtracting the average ADJ P48 at a player’s position from the player’s ADJ P48. And then 0.099 – the average player’s production of wins per 48 minutes – is added back in.
To illustrate, let’s look at Chuck Hayes. According to Andres’ website, Hayes posted a 0.432 ADJ P48. But Hayes is listed as a shooting guard or small forward by the algorithm (again, he is relatively short). If he actually played center, then his WP48 is as follows:
Hayes WP48 at Center: 0.432 – 0.431 + 0.099 = 0.100.
One should note, I am using the average ADJ P48 that Andres employs. For each position, these averages are as follows:
Center: 0.431
Power Forward: 0.362
Small Forward: 0.291
Shooting Guards: 0.242
Point Guards: 0.247
As you work with the automated WP numbers, keep these averages in mind. If you see a player not at the “correct” position, then a simple adjustment will get you to the “correct” WP48 number.
One last note… we now have eight blogs in the Wages of Wins network. If you wish to join the fun, please let me know and I will post a link to your blog.
- DJ