According to Chris Mannix of Sports Illustrated – Rod Thorn (the president of the Sixers) – is optimistic about the upcoming season.  Thorn also would very much like to add Carmelo Anthony to the Sixers roster (at the cost of Andre Iguodala).

Lance Epstein – of Philadunkia – argues that such a trade would vault the Sixers from a fringe playoff team (where Epstein currently thinks they are at) to the 4^th seed in the Eastern Conference.

For the opposing view we turn to Tom Sunnergren – who also writes for Philadunkia.  Sunnergren argues that the following would happen if Melo came to the Sixers:

Expectations would be high.  Through the roof.  They would literally explode through the roof.  After enough roofs were destroyed, people would learn not to keep these expectations indoors.  They’d be left outside to soar, to be free.  And why not?  Carmelo Anthony is the single best player in basketball not named Kobe, Lebron or Durant!  We know that because he scores the most. You can’t win without scoring points, anybody knows that.  And the guy he’s replacing?  Iguodala?  More like “ugly(jumper)odala!”  That guy sucks.  Look at his scoring for crying out loud.  Carmelo scores waaaaaaay more than him.  Carmelo, points, Carmelo, twenty-eight a game, Carmelo, scorer, Carmellllllllloooooo!  That’s how the conventional wisdom would go.   And who could argue with it.  Carmelo does score a lot of points.   And everybody knows the best player is the guy who scores the most.  Period.

Pretty soon though the Sixers would have to start playing games, would lose these games, and this unexpected losing would cause the hype train –fuelled by a month of irrational exuberance– to tragically derail, possibly killing Phil Jasner.  After Jasner was mourned, people would return to puzzling over why the Sixers, the purportedly reborn Sixers, were losing games at such a break-neck pace. It’s the chemistry, Jrue Holliday hasn’t developed, Carmelo isn’t comfortable under the harsh Philly-spotlight, Doug Collins is the culprit, Lou Williams isn’t driving enough, Phil Collins is the culprit (The PA had played too much Genesis in pregame), Evan Turner hasn’t warranted his high pick, the papers would loudly speculate, throwing darts at the mounting losses.  The question that would be on the tip of everyone’s tongue (or the tongues of the few who were still paying attention to an NBA team with a .250 winning percentage) would be an understandable one: What the hell happened?

This, dear reader, is what the hell happened.  The reason the Sixers, despite swapping a scrub like Iguodala for a top player like Melo, would still suck is because Carmelo Anthony – all-star, 2^ndteam all-NBA, Olympic gold medalist, NCAA national-champion, Carmelo Anthony– sucks.  And Andre Iguodala is a star.  Yeah, I went there.

The Sunnergren argument is primarily based on Wins Produced.  And the views of Thorn and  Epstein… well, they reflect the general belief that scorers are great players.

Obviously I tend to believe the Wins Produced story (okay, that was really obvious).  And I will add more observations to the Melo story:

If Melo is trades in the next few days (or weeks), the Melo’s new coach can expect the following to happen:

• Expectations – as Sunnergren argues – will be sky high.
• The team will fail to meet these expectations (because Melo is really not that productive).
• The coach will get fired (quicker than he would otherwise be fired).

In sum, any head coach who gets Anthony should be dismayed.  Chances are he won’t be (because I expect most coaches buy the conventional wisdom on scorers like Anthony).  But nevertheless, he should be.

- DJ

Henry Abbott at TrueHoop today:  Rip Hamilton says (via Piston Powered) “the more scorers we’ll have, the better we’ll be” and somewhere a vein pops out of David Berri’s forehead.

The Pistons have been collecting scorers the past couple of years (Tracy McGrady, Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva are good examples).  Across the past decade (until last year) the Joe Dumars and the Pistons – with a team that was not populated by many scorers – did better than the Knicks (led mostly by Isiah Thomas).  Isiah — as has been noted many times — clearly followed the philosophy echoed by Rip Hamilton.  After such a decade, though, Joe Dumars and Rip Hamilton appear to have reached the conclusion that Isiah was right after all.  In other words, all that losing by the Knicks — and all that winning by the Pistons — didn’t lead Hamilton and Dumars to the obvious conclusion.  Not sure this means the “veins are popping” (and I laughed when I read this).  But it is interesting how someone who played on the Pistons when they were good could make such a statement. 

- DJ

Tom Sunnergren – of Philadunkia – recently sent along a number of questions for me to address.   A few days ago I answered some of these (I hope to get to the rest of the questions this week) and my answers have now been posted.

Two quick comments on the answers…

• Tom admits that as a fan of Allen Iverson he was not initially impressed with The Wages of Wins. At least, that was true before he read the book. 
• And Henry Abbott – of TrueHoop – notes this about my answers:  It’s never personal with the numbers. But, for the record, David Berri’s numbers hate the Sixers.

- DJ

The Charlotte Bobcats had their best season in team history in 2009-10. For a team that had never had a winning record – or made the playoffs – “best season ever” isn’t much of an accomplishment.  Nevertheless, with a record of 44-38, the Bobcats gave Charlotte fans their first taste of playoff basketball since 2002 (when P.J. Brown and Baron Davis led the Charlotte team). 

When we look at Charlotte’s roster last year – and what these players did on a per-minute basis in 2008-09 – we see that Charlotte could have expected to miss the playoffs again in 2010.  Improved production from Raymond Felton – with small improvements from Stephen Graham and Gerald Wallace – allowed this team to win enough games to secure the 7^th seed in the playoffs.

Felton, though, signed with the Knicks in the offseason.  And that means Felton’s 8.9 wins – and 0.162 WP48 [Win Produced per 48 minutes, Wins Produced explained HERE] — will need to be replaced.

One possibility was floated this past week. As part of the proposed Carmelo Anthony grade, Devin Harris of the New Jersey Nets was going to be sent to the Bobcats. In return, the Bobcats were going to send D.J. Augustin to the Nets and Boris Diaw to the Utah Jazz. One sticking point in the proposed deal, though, was Charlotte’s unwillingness to part with Augustin.

Charlotte doesn’t want to give up D.J. Augustin to the Nets, so New Jersey has begun exploring how to expand the trade to include more teams and more players in hopes of landing itself a point guard.

When we consider the productivity of the players involved, the Bobcats reluctance is not entirely clear.  Here is what Harris, Augustin, and Diaw has offered across the past two seasons.

• Devin Harris [2008-09]: 8.0 Wins Produced, 0.154 WP48
• Devin Harris [2009-10]: 2.7 Wins Produced, 0.058 WP48
• D.J. Augustin [2008-09]: 3.0 Wins Produced, 0.075 WP48
• D.J. Augustin [2009-10]: 0.5 Wins Produced, 0.016 WP48
• Boris Diaw [2008-09]: 3.7 Wins Produced, 0.065 WP48
• Boris Diaw [2009-10]: 1.1 Wins Produced, 0.019 WP48

Here is the story all these numbers tell.

• All three players were below average last season (average WP48 is 0.100).
• All three players played better in 2008-09. 
• Only Devin Harris, though, was above average in 2008-09.

If we go back before 2008-09 we see that Harris was above average in each of the previous three seasons as well.  In fact, his rookie season was the last time he was below average.  So if the Bobcats wanted an above average point guard to replace Felton, Harris seems like a player who could fill that role.

In contrast, Augustin has never been an above average player. That is true across the first two seasons of his career. And it was true in his last season in college (he was below average for a player selected out of college).  So it is not clear why the Bobcats would cling to Augustin.

Well, let me amend that statement. Augustin was a lottery pick by the Bobcats in 2008. The team passed on a number of players who have posted above average numbers in their NBA careers (Brook Lopez, Anthony Randolph, Ryan Anderson, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute are a few names that come to mind).  Since we cannot forecast perfectly from college to the pros (although we can forecast some), it is not unusual for teams to miss on a lottery pick.  But what you would like to see is a team admitting – after someone has played 152 NBA games – that a lottery pick is not quite as good as was thought on draft night.

Apparently, though, the Bobcats are having a hard time letting go.  Published research (across the past two decades) makes it clear that NBA teams have a problem with revising their evaluation of draft picks.  And if this story is true, it looks like this story is playing out again in Charlotte.

Two last notes on this story…

• Yes, the Bobcats were also asked to throw Boris Diaw in the deal. Diaw did have an above average season in 2005-06.  But this was the only above average season in his career.  So it is not clear that losing Diaw is really a major cost.
• Of course, the most recent story on the Melo story suggests this entire trade is dying.  So the Bobcat fans don’t have to worry about losing Augustin.

In sum, it looks like the Bobcats are going to replace Felton with Augustin.  And that means, 2009-10 might remain the Bobcats best season ever.

 - DJ

While we wait for the Carmelo Anthony trade to be finalized, let’s talk about a trade yesterday that was quite interesting (even if it was of far less importance).  On Thursday the 76ers sent Willie Green and Jason Smith to the New Orleans Hornets for Darius Songaila and rookie Craig Brackins.  Why is this trade interesting?  I suspect this quartet are the least productive players ever to comprise a multi-player trade.

Consider the career productivity of the veterans involved:

Darius Songaila

• 2003-04: 1.1 Wins Produced, 0.056 WP48
• 2004-05: 1.9 Wins Produced, 0.053 WP48
• 2005-06: -0.1 Wins Produced, -0.003 WP48
• 2006-07: -0.1 Wins Produced, -0.005 WP48
• 2007-08: -2.4 Wins Produced, -0.075 WP48
• 2008-09: -0.8 Wins Produced, -0.024 WP48
• 2009-10: -3.9 Wins Produced, -0.134 WP48
• Career Totals: -4.3 Wins Produced, -0.022 WP48

Willie Green

• 2003-04: -1.9 Wins Produced, -0.119 WP48
• 2004-05: -1.1 Wins Produced, -0.049 WP48
• 2005-06: -0.4 Wins Produced, -0.121 WP48
• 2006-07: -4.3 Wins Produced, -0.112 WP48
• 2007-08: -0.2 Wins Produced, -0.004 WP48
• 2008-09: -0.3 Wins Produced, -0.008 WP48
• 2009-10: 0.8 Wins Produced, 0.024 WP48
• Career Totals: -7.9 Wins Produced, -0.039

Jason Smith

• 2007-08: -1.5 Wins Produced, -0.067 WP48
• 2009-10: -1.5 Wins Produced, -0.110 WP48
• Career Totals: -3.1 Wins Produced, -0.083 WP48

These three players have combined to produced -14.7 wins in their careers.  Although Willie Green’s production of -7.9 wins is the lowest total for this trio – and Jason Smith has the lowest career WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] — Darius Songaila was actually the least productive player in the entire NBA last season.  I suspect (and I have not actually researched this question) that these are the least productive veterans ever to comprise the entire list of all the people involved in an NBA trade.

Apparently the Sixers did this trade because they wanted Craig Brackins (not sure where I read this).   Back in June, Shawn Ryan and I analyzed the players selected in the draft who played college basketball in 2009-10.  We reported that Brackins posted a 6.3 PAWS40 [Position Adjusted Win Score per 40 minutes] last season.  That mark ranked 50^th (out of 53) in the 2010 draft class.

To put that in perspective, I looked at players drafted since 1995 who played three years in the league (the 2008-09 season was the last year considered).  Of the 21 rookies who had a PAWS40 of 6.3 or less (and who played at least 500 minutes across their first three seasons) only one – Trevor Ariza – had a career WP48 mark (after three seasons) that was above average.  And 12 of these players had a WP48 mark in the negative range.

In sum, it doesn’t seem likely that Brackins is going to be an above average NBA player.

So if you are fans of either team, your reaction to this trade should be… well, I am not sure. Maybe you should hope the players you acquire never really get on the floor.  Yes, that doesn’t sound like much of a hope after a trade.

- DJ