The Charlotte Bobcats Have Trouble Letting Go

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The Charlotte Bobcats had their best season in team history in 2009-10. For a team that had never had a winning record – or made the playoffs – “best season ever” isn’t much of an accomplishment.  Nevertheless, with a record of 44-38, the Bobcats gave Charlotte fans their first taste of playoff basketball since 2002 (when P.J. Brown and Baron Davis led the Charlotte team). 

When we look at Charlotte’s roster last year – and what these players did on a per-minute basis in 2008-09 – we see that Charlotte could have expected to miss the playoffs again in 2010.  Improved production from Raymond Felton – with small improvements from Stephen Graham and Gerald Wallace – allowed this team to win enough games to secure the 7th seed in the playoffs.

Felton, though, signed with the Knicks in the offseason.  And that means Felton’s 8.9 wins – and 0.162 WP48 [Win Produced per 48 minutes, Wins Produced explained HERE] — will need to be replaced.

One possibility was floated this past week. As part of the proposed Carmelo Anthony grade, Devin Harris of the New Jersey Nets was going to be sent to the Bobcats. In return, the Bobcats were going to send D.J. Augustin to the Nets and Boris Diaw to the Utah Jazz. One sticking point in the proposed deal, though, was Charlotte’s unwillingness to part with Augustin.

Charlotte doesn’t want to give up D.J. Augustin to the Nets, so New Jersey has begun exploring how to expand the trade to include more teams and more players in hopes of landing itself a point guard.

When we consider the productivity of the players involved, the Bobcats reluctance is not entirely clear.  Here is what Harris, Augustin, and Diaw has offered across the past two seasons.

  • Devin Harris [2008-09]: 8.0 Wins Produced, 0.154 WP48
  • Devin Harris [2009-10]: 2.7 Wins Produced, 0.058 WP48
  • D.J. Augustin [2008-09]: 3.0 Wins Produced, 0.075 WP48
  • D.J. Augustin [2009-10]: 0.5 Wins Produced, 0.016 WP48
  • Boris Diaw [2008-09]: 3.7 Wins Produced, 0.065 WP48
  • Boris Diaw [2009-10]: 1.1 Wins Produced, 0.019 WP48

Here is the story all these numbers tell.

  • All three players were below average last season (average WP48 is 0.100).
  • All three players played better in 2008-09. 
  • Only Devin Harris, though, was above average in 2008-09.

If we go back before 2008-09 we see that Harris was above average in each of the previous three seasons as well.  In fact, his rookie season was the last time he was below average.  So if the Bobcats wanted an above average point guard to replace Felton, Harris seems like a player who could fill that role.

In contrast, Augustin has never been an above average player. That is true across the first two seasons of his career. And it was true in his last season in college (he was below average for a player selected out of college).  So it is not clear why the Bobcats would cling to Augustin.

Well, let me amend that statement. Augustin was a lottery pick by the Bobcats in 2008. The team passed on a number of players who have posted above average numbers in their NBA careers (Brook Lopez, Anthony Randolph, Ryan Anderson, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute are a few names that come to mind).  Since we cannot forecast perfectly from college to the pros (although we can forecast some), it is not unusual for teams to miss on a lottery pick.  But what you would like to see is a team admitting – after someone has played 152 NBA games – that a lottery pick is not quite as good as was thought on draft night.

Apparently, though, the Bobcats are having a hard time letting go.  Published research (across the past two decades) makes it clear that NBA teams have a problem with revising their evaluation of draft picks.  And if this story is true, it looks like this story is playing out again in Charlotte.

Two last notes on this story…

In sum, it looks like the Bobcats are going to replace Felton with Augustin.  And that means, 2009-10 might remain the Bobcats best season ever.

 - DJ

11 thoughts on “The Charlotte Bobcats Have Trouble Letting Go”

  1. I really hope melo gets traded, cuz I told people he was overrated and replacing him should prove it.

    Btw, dberri, do you still plan on posting your findings on the effect of drawing fouls?

  2. In terms of targeting point guards, the bobcats have now passed on Felton, Calderon and now Harris in favor of Augustin. I think this qualifies as an epic fail in terms of populating the point guard. In a few years you’ll have to add Gerald Wallace to the “Tragedy of” series.

  4. Yo, they could potentially win over 55 games. I just don’t see how they can end up with less than 55 wins.

  7. Losing Felton hurts, I agree. But focusing the entire analysis on him alone, especially when his replacements likely won’t be a such a huge drop back, paints an incomplete picture.

    A full season from Thomas, who’s consistently been about a .100-.150 player, will certainly help. Ditto a return to form from Chandler; he’s been around a .300 player before struggling with injuries the past couple of seasons.

    Charlotte could certainly be worse this season. A lot of their players improved vastly and it’s tough to see all of them (old-timers Mohammed and Bell especially) replicating last season’s output. But it’s also possible they could be better.

  8. Philip, I suspect that the focus was placed on the depature of Felton because that will be the position with the single largest drop-off in production. Right now, his replacements are horrible. Augustin figures to be the starter, who produced only 0.5 wins last year. Assuming he stays about the same per minute you can expect him to produce between 1.0 and 1.5 wins. That’s a big drop from 8.9, and then even if Shaun Livingston gives them an average performance for a backup they’ll still be down around 5 wins from this year.

    From what I saw in the World Championship, Tyson Chandler hasn’t returned to his .300 form. I wouldn’t count on a sudden jump in production from him.

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