Did Race Play a Role in Donovan McNabb’s Departure from Philadelphia?

When the Philadelphia Eagles take the field this Sunday, a familiar face will not be seen. After eleven seasons, Donovan McNabb will no longer be the quarterback for the Eagles.

As an Eagle, McNabb posted some impressive numbers. To see this, let’s just look at the records McNabb set for the Eagles (courtesy of McNabb’s own biography): 4,746 pass attempts, 2,801 completions, 32,873 passing yards, and 216 TD passes are all franchise records for the Eagles. In addition, he has more wins (92), postseason games (16) and postseason victories (9) than any other QB in team history.

Despite these numbers, though, McNabb was traded to the Washington Redskins. Trades in the NFL are certainly not unusual. But consider the following list of quarterbacks: Roger Staubach, Terry Bradshaw, Dan Fouts, Dan Marino, John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Troy Aikman. What do these quarterbacks have in common?

• Each quarterback started their career after 1969.
• Each is in the Hall-of-Fame.
• Each played their entire career with one team.
• And each is white.

Since 1969, ten quarterbacks have entered the league and eventually were selected to the Hall-of-Fame. Nine of these quarterbacks were white. And of these nine, only Joe Montana and Steve Young – who both played for the San Francisco 49ers — played for more than one team in their career.

In contrast, consider the story of Warren Moon, the one black Hall-of-Fame quarterback. Moon was undrafted in 1978 (despite leading the Washington Huskies to a victory in the Rose Bowl in 1978). He then spent five years in the Canadian Football League (where he won five consecutive league championships) before finally landing a job with the Houston Oilers in 1984. With the Oilers in 1984, Moon became just the sixth black quarterback to attempt 100 passes in a single NFL season. Yes, prior to the 1990s it was very clear that black quarterbacks were treated differently than white signal callers.

Moon’s Hall-of-Fame career was also different from his white colleagues. Across fifteen seasons, Moon worked for four different teams. Once again, no other Hall-of-Fame quarterback in the aforementioned sample toiled for so many different franchises.

If we look at NFL history, it is clear that race matters. And if we look at just the Hall-of-Fame quarterbacks, it also appears that race impacts a player’s career. But history and a sample of ten observations is hardly enough to tell us much about how quarterbacks are viewed today.

For a larger and more recent sample, consider the factors that get a quarterback paid in the NFL. Rob Simmons and I – in a paper published in 2009 — looked at a sample with 435 observations. Across this sample we examined the factors that determine a quarterback’s salary. Once we controlled for performance (in a variety of ways), where a quarterback was selected in the draft, years of experience, the quality of skill players around the quarterback, pro bowl appearances, and the size of the market where a quarterback played; we uncovered evidence that a quarterback’s race impacts the size of his paycheck.

This appears to be especially true for the elite signal callers. Rob and I segmented our sample so we could see how race impacted pay across the salary distribution. At lower levels of pay, race didn’t seem to matter much. But as we moved into higher and higher salaries, race mattered more and more. And for the richest quarterbacks, the results indicated that a black quarterback posting the same numbers as a white quarterback would get less pay.

Such results are what we see when we look at a large sample of quarterbacks. But let’s return the specific story of Donovan McNabb. One can take the statistics (i.e. yards from passing, rushing, and sacks; total plays; and interceptions) tabulated for an NFL quarterback and use these to measure how many wins a quarterback produced (some details can be found HERE and more is offered in Stumbling on Wins – where the story of race and the NFL quarterback is also explored). Across McNabb’s career, he has produced 27.7 wins; and per 100 plays, his Wins Produced stands at 0.487. To put those numbers in perspective, McNabb’s career production of wins (and his career is not over yet) already top the career numbers of Staubach, Bradshaw, Kelly, and Aikman (even after these Hall-of-Famer’s numbers were adjusted for the time period when each quarterback played). And his per play performance tops what we saw from both the aforementioned quartet and John Elway.

If we look at performance in each season, McNabb has not posted below average numbers since his second NFL season. In contrast, Aikman was below average in three different years. And Bradshaw and Elway posted below average numbers four and five times respectively. But unlike Moon and McNabb, none of these players ever departed the team that employed the quarterback his rookie season.

So did race play a role in McNabb’s departure from Philadelphia? There is no way to answer that question with certainty. What we can say is the there is evidence that in general, elite black quarterbacks are treated differently than elite white quarterbacks. This is clearly seen when we look at the salary data.

And one suspects it can also be seen with respect to the image many people have of McNabb. All quarterbacks have bad games. And almost all quarterbacks have bad seasons. But for the elite white quarterbacks, the down times are often overlooked. Furthermore, these quarterbacks are often praised for their leadership and apparently magical abilities to win games.

McNabb – despite posting very similar numbers and playing for teams that won many, many games – doesn’t seem to be spoken about in the same way. One suspects, given what we have seen with respect to the history of the black quarterback and the impact race has on a signal caller’s pay, that one reason McNabb is now a Redskin (and yes, given this story, that is an odd name for McNabb’s new team) is the color of his skin.

This story was originally posted at the Huffington Post.

- DJ

Dreaming of Denver Moves

Ben Fenton is currently a law student at the University of Arizona.  He is originally from New York and grew up a Knicks fan.  He moved to Denver in high school and spent his first couple years in Colorado actively rooting against the Nuggets.  But as the Knicks somehow got progressively worse each year while outspending everyone in the league, he started to sympathize with his new hometown team, before officially switching loyalties after the brawl at Madison Square Garden in December 2006.  What follows is a suggestion of how the Nuggets could use Carmelo Anthony’s desire to move to become a championship contender.

My beloved Denver Nuggets are in disarray.  Stan Kroenke has ceded ownership to his son Josh; the holy basketball operations triumvirate of Mark Warkentien, Rex Chapman and Bret Bearup has been replaced by Masai Ujiri (who?); the team’s “best” player wants out of town; and local sportswriters are preparing the team’s obituary while fans brace for a return to the dark ages of the 90’s. 

In reality, though, the future may not be so bleak. With just a couple of reasonable moves, Denver can transform its current situation into something remarkable.  Here’s a dream scenario that could have the Nuggets lifting the Larry O’Brien trophy next June:

Move #1:    The Nuggets send Carmelo and Ty Lawson to the Mavericks for Jason Kidd and Tyson Chandler.

Why this could happen: 

Carmelo would need to agree to an extend-and-trade for the Mavs to go with this.  He’s allegedly told those close to him that he is open to a trade to Houston, so why not Dallas?  Dallas has plenty of big names in Dirk Nowitzki, Shawn Marion, Caron Butler, Brendan Haywood, Rodrigue Beaubois, etc.  Carmelo might view himself as the missing piece to that puzzle, especially with Ty Lawson coming along.

While Mark Cuban loves Jason Kidd, he probably believes that Dirk Nowitzki is responsible for more of his team’s success than his veteran point guard.  Cuban realizes that Kidd only has a couple of productive years left in his tank at most, and with an opportunity to snag high-scoring Carmelo Anthony and a young point guard in Ty Lawson to replace Kidd, he might be willing to let him go.  He’d also likely be willing to part ways with Tyson Chandler, who wouldn’t have been a starter with Haywood on the roster anyway, to make the salaries match.

Move #2:    The Nuggets send the expiring contracts of J.R. Smith and Kenyon Martin to Charlotte for Gerald Wallace, Nazr Mohammed, DeSagana Diop, and Matt Carroll.

Why this could happen:

Charlotte isn’t going to be a serious title contender next year with the personnel they have, and they don’t look to be major players in free agency over the next few summers with all of the dead weight contracts they’re carrying.  They probably recognize that Gerald Wallace is their best player, but don’t consider him to be a superstar and might be open to parting ways with him in exchange for lots of flexibility next summer under the new collective bargaining agreement.

After these two deals the Nuggets would have this starting lineup:

PG:  Jason Kidd, 2009-10 WP48 .337

SG:  Chauncey Billups,2009-10 WP48 .194

SF:  Gerald Wallace, 2009-10 WP 48  .270

PF:  Nene, 2009-10 WP48  .176

C:  Tyson Chandler, 2009-10 WP48 .094

….with these players seeing regular minutes off the bench:

Arron Afflalo (WP48  .089), Al Harrington (WP48 -.024), Chris Andersen (WP48 .241)

…and these players seeing spot duty:

Anthony Carter (WP48  .100), Nazr Mohammed(WP .199)

Chauncey Billups and Nene would be playing different positions than they did last year (both of which demand less production than their old positions) so each player’s WP48 would increase if nothing changes. However, Billups’ production has declined steadily over the last few seasons and may continue at an even sharper rate next season, as he’ll be 34 years old.

On the other hand, the Nuggets may be able to get more from Nene than from what would be expected from the position change alone.  Though he’ll be 28 at the start of the season, without the black hole that is Carmelo Anthony in the lineup taking 20 shots a game, Nene would become more of a focus on offense.  In each of the past 2 seasons, Nene has finished in the top 8 in the NBA in true shooting percentage, yet has only averaged 9 field goal attempts and 5 free throw attempts per game.  Nene is a rare bruising big man who can clean up inside but can also make free throws and consistently hit a mid-range jump shot.  He also has good floor vision and is a great passer for his position, and might see his assists increase with more touches.

Gerald Wallace, who spent half of his minutes at power forward last season, would spend most of his time at small forward on this roster.  Though there will be some diminishing returns from having so many proficient rebounders on the floor at the same time, if Wallace comes anywhere close to maintaining his unadjusted production, his WP48 should increase.

Tyson Chandler has been below average in each of the last two seasons, but there is good reason to believe that he’ll be more effective this year.Over the three seasons preceding the last two, Chandler averaged a stellar WP48 of .265. He’s only 28, he’s healthy for the first time in a while, and perhaps most importantly, he’s in the final year of his contract and will be playing for a new one.

If the Nuggets do all of these things and everything works out exactly as I hope, here’s what the Nuggets production might look like next season:

That’s right.  With these moves the Nuggets would project to be as good as the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.  Will the Nuggets make these moves? Probably not.  But it’s fun to dream.

- Ben Fenton

Kevin Durant is Leading Team USA (and Kevin Love is helping)

Mosi Platt – of “Miami Heat Index” – has offered another fascinating look at Team USA at Bleacher Report.  Once again, this is fascinating because

  • it uses Wins Produced (always great)
  • it has a slide show

And it offers analysis that is somewhat different (but not completely different) from what Ty Willihnganz of Courtside Analyst offered (I linked to Ty’s analysis yesterday). So everyone, please click over to

World Domination: Kevin Durant Is Leading Team USA to The World Championship.

By the way, Team USA defeated Angola today by 55 points.   In Olympic play, Team USA has defeated Angola by an average margin of 39.5 points (since 1992).  So I am not sure anyone should be too excited about today’s results (then again, if you want to get excited… well, whatever makes you happy).

- DJ

Ty Willihnganz Comments Twice on Team USA

The major basketball story these days is the adventures of Team USA at the World Championships.  For coverage of this story, I am going to turn the forum over to Ty Willihnganz of Courtside Analyst.   As he noted a few days ago, Ty was not initially impressed after watching Team USA take on Croatia.  And now that Team USA has advanced with an undefeated record (and one significant scare against Brazil), Ty has also offered a list of players who impressed (and who haven’t impressed).  For those who are not reading Ty’s work (not sure why this would be, but I guess it could be happening), I am going to re-post Ty’s analysis below (if you click on the links you can see that Ty includes pictures with his posts, so it is better to read this work at Ty’s site). 

Team USA looks headed for trouble

Last night I was watching the early part of Team USA’s opening game against Croatia and I was stunned how easily Croatia was controlling inside play.  Then I realized that absent Kevin Love (and a diminished Tyson Chandler, and I guess Lamar Odom) Team USA has no size to speak of.  In fact, looking at the playing minutes, the team seems to be actively ignoring the role big men have played in writing the history of the game of basketball.  Its a subtle point to internalize, I guess.  It must take — what?– all of three seconds of study to uncover.

Man, who designed this team anyway?  Don Nelson?? He’s been playing without a center in Golden State for several seasons now, and he’s driven that franchise right into the gutter.  Yet the Committee that chose Team USA must think he’s the Frank Lloyd Wright of championship basketball design.

Wow.  You cannot argue to me that any representative team of half quality would feature Stephen Curry or Eric Gordon or Rudy Gay on its roster.  Those cannot seriously be the best players the Committee could find.  What, Randy Foye wasn’t available?  (Actually they forced most of the best players off the team for lack of shooting ability).

And what tournament were they watching in 2008?  Where did they get the idea that a team of jump shooters would present our best opportunity to succeed?  Didn’t they notice that the Redeem Team dominated through superior length and athleticism, not through shooting?  Didn’t they see that Kobe Bryant and  MichaelRedd, the two players who stood outside and played international style, were the least effective players?  Couldn’t they tell that the United States last decisive advantage rests with guys of the Charles Barkley type (who every member on the Dream Team — and the stats — say was the best player on Team USA 1992).

The World can shoot with the USA.  They love that.  They can’t dunk with them.  They can’t rebound with them.  They can’t handle the length and basket attacking style that only we can bring.

Well, not this unit.  Kevin Love has had to come off the bench to save the United States bacon in two games.  In Game Two he and Lamar Odom provided the United States with 40% of their rebounds using only 16% of the team’s playing time?

What are you doing Kryzyzweski?  Thank God for Kevin Durant.

But the United States numbers so far don’t project well.  They are dominant, but not Mega-dominant like most of the successful United States teams of the past.  Their overall numbers project to an .829% winning percentage, which would be outstanding for an NBA team, but I’m not entirely convinced either Slovania or Croatia are NBA quality.  Consider that the Redeem Team projected out to a 1.450% winning percentage and they were nearly upset.

I’m not saying this US team will be upset.  But the only reason I’m not is because I question the overall competition level of a tournament where former Badger Kirk Penney is the leading scorer and Yi Jianlian is number two.

If it weren’t for that caveat I’d say that Team USA is headed for a nose dive.

Grading 2010 Team USA (plus Win Chart)

With a thanks to Basketball-Reference.com’s Neil Paine, who accumulated all of the necessary statistics, I put together a Win Chart purporting to attribute wins and losses to each player on Team USA for every game the team has played thus far (up through Tunisia and including the friendly matches).  I also handed out grades to each player for their relative performances so far.

Click Here to see 2010 Team USA Win Chart

Although the competition was much better at the 2008 Olympics, if you click here you can use the 2008 Gold Medal team’s Win Chart as an international ball comparison.

Grades for Team USA (so far)

A+

Durant, Love (co-Valedictorians)

The dominant players on the team thus far have been PF Kevin Durant, the leader of the team in wins with 1.9, and C Kevin Love, the leader of the team in performance level with an unconscionable +13.07 Marginal Win Score per 40 minutes.  Love, despite playing the second least minutes, has somehow produced the second most wins.  What a display.  He’s just having his way with the competition on the backboard.  Yeah, he doesn’t look glamorous doing it, but basketball ain’t about the pretty.  And what can you say about Durant?  Durant has been impressive on both offense and defense.  Who knew he would be such a great defender coming out of Texas?   He’s simply developing into a real beast (though watching him I wonder how long his spindly legs can support his mobile game.  Are seven footers supposed to be able to play like 6’5” guys?)  Love, on the other hand, is putting up a pretty convincing case that he may be the best rebounder alive today.

A

Westbrook, Rose, and Gay (tri-Salutatorians)

Some players who have played surprisingly well include Derrick Rose and especially Rudy Gay.   Each is normally around average during the NBA season when measured by wins produced.  But each has been hard for the world to handle so far.  Russell Westbrook has really developed into an outstanding player in the past few seasons.  He and Durant, along with other Oklahoma players, are the foundation for what could be a scary good team in Dust Bowl.  They could be Miami’s chief threat, or perhaps the other way around.

B-

Iguodala, Odom (cum laude)

Remember this grade is on a curve.  Iguodala and Odom are each doing okay, but when you consider that each is normally an above average NBA player, and sometimes considerably above average, their individual national team numbers are milquetoast.

C

Billups, Gordon, Chandler (a “C” is a degree)

A “C” is kind of generous.  In international competition, what look like above average win numbers if they were posted in the NBA are akin to below the median numbers when posted against world competition.  Tunisia and Slovenia clearly are not NBA timber.   Of the three who earned this grade, Chauncey Billups and Tyson Chandler are both players who have exhibited signs of rapid decline in their once very productive careers, and Eric Gordon is a young player who is hard to measure.  Coming out of college I projected him to disappoint, in his first season he surprised me with productive play, but last season he slumped backward toward what I expected he would produce (surf over to the NBA Win Chart Pages on the right hand column of this blog if you want to see my exact calculations  for each of the players mentioned in this post).

F

Stephen Curry (NR: needs replacement)

I don’t know what he’s doing on this team, or how on Earth he beat out Rajon Rondo, but Stephen Curry has looked awful.  For such a reputed “shooter” he looks like a “non-shooter”.  Besides (warning: tirade coming) why would National Team organizers favor players with jump shooting skills?!  Those skills are easily replicated.  Why not concentrate on loading the team up with players who show either rare productive skills (Love’s rebounding), rare physical skills (Wade, Rose, Westbrook or Rondo), or freakish combinations of skill, size, and talent (LeBron, Durant).  Why put guys like Gordon and Curry on the team?  Foreign teams can match them.  Didn’t Redd prove that? Or how about the Iverson/Marbury disaster of 2004?  How many more of these mistakes is USA Basketball going to make?

F-

Danny Granger (See ya next fall… same homeroom)

How low are grades allowed to go?  Granger has been awful.  If the World Championships were considered his original third grade year, Granger would right now be thinking up reasons to explain to his friends why he has to spend this fall repeating the third grade.  What in the hell is Granger even doing on the team anyway?  What fool thought he could possibly add more value to Team USA than the monster from Charlotte, SF Gerald Wallace? Still, Granger’s play has been inexcusably putrid.  Unless Granger is suffering from West Nile or something, his poor play is hard to explain even by his ordinarily low standards.

-Ty Willihnganz

Team Kobe vs. Team Rodman

Ethan Sherwood Strauss – of Warriors World Net – recently asked me the following question:

“Who would win, five prime Dennis Rodmans vs. five prime Kobe Bryants?”

For my answer, let’s just review all of Ethan’s post:

Because it’s September and because the Dubs are daring me to conjure something about Rodney Carney, I asked economist/statman/hoophead Dave Berri this old musky question:

“Who would win, five prime Dennis Rodmans vs. five prime Kobe Bryants?”

I assumed he’d choose Rodman, because the Worm bests the Mamba in Berri’s Wins Produced metric. His answer surprised me:

“As for Rodman vs. Kobe… people often argue that a team of Rodmans (or a team of just Ben Wallace, or a team of Bieidrins) wouldn’t be very good since no one can score.  That might be true, but a team a team of just Kobe or just Iverson wouldn’t be too good either.  After all, Kobe can’t guard a center and he can’t rebound as well either. As for a team of Kobe vs. a team of Rodman… well, Rodman can’t bring the ball up the court.  So that is a problem. He also isn’t much of a scorer.  But he would tend to dominate the boards, which might be good since he would miss a lot of shots.  On the other hand, Kobe could bring the ball up the court and get his shot off.  But he better make it, since he won’t get many second shots.  Put it all together…. I think I take Kobe. Rodman is going to lose too many possessions before he ever takes a shot.”

Not sure I’m too sold on 2005 Kobes enduring the press thrown by the frothing flock of 91’ Rodmans, but then again, I believe Bryant to be the most overhyped guy in NBA history (albeit a good player and a joy to watch). And yes, point taken, the idea that a player’s worth should be valued in terms of how he and four clones would perform in an alternate alien universe? Questionable. Still, I love hypotheticals like this–not because they unlock some grand secret–but because they stoke my imagination in a way visions of dinosaurs used to. And before you confidently tell me that Kobe’s the obvious pick, remember: Dennis Rodman ripped down a jaw-scraping 18.7 boards per game.

So what do you think, who would win? What other impossible matchups would you love to see?

Speaking of Berri, he recently called Monta Ellis the most overrated player of 2009-2010. I have no qualms with Berri’s numbers on Monta–I just disagree with his measurement of ratedness. The basketball cognoscenti seem wise to the turnovers, aware of the defensive deficiency. As for the actual GMs who run this league…I’m hoping an Iggy for Monta deal happens sooner than yesterday.