This past summer (and parts of the fall), reviews of almost every NBA team – using Wins Produced – were posted in this forum (these are all listed at the NBA Analysis Page).  The lone exception was the New Jersey Nets. So with this quick post, every team will have been reviewed.

Let me start with what the Nets did last year.  Yes, they were the worst team in the NBA. Last February we explored how this happened.  Here were the basic points made eight months ago.

• Obviously the roster assembled in New Jersey was quite bad.  But it shouldn’t been as bad as it appeared.
• The problem in New Jersey was primarily at the point guard spot.  The three players who declined the most were Devin Harris, Rafer Alston, and Keyon Dooling.
• The departure of Alston – and the addition of Kris Humphries – probably helped the Nets avoid the worst record in NBA history.

When we look at the final results for this team (32 games after the story in February was posted), we find support for these stories.  The following table indicates the team should not have been as bad as it was in 2009-10.  The point guards were the players who decline the most.  And the addition of Humphries and loss of Alston probably helped.

Although all of that may be interesting, much of this doesn’t matter in 2010-11.  This team now has new ownership.  And more importantly, many new players.  In fact, of the ten players listed on the depth chart, six were not with the team last year.  Because clothes do not win or lose games, we can expect a change in the players in the clothes will cause a change in the outcomes observed.

How much of a change, though, depends on the quality of players added and lost. Let’s focus on the latter first.  The above table reveals that the Nets employed five players who a) saw 500 or more minutes of actions and b) posted WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] marks in the negative range.  All five of these players are now gone (and if you now have one of those players on your team, that might not be a good sign).  Having these players depart clearly helps.

The team has also added a few players who produce in the positive range.  This list begins with Troy Murphy, who posted a 0.294 WP48 last season with the Indiana Pacers.  Murphy, though, begins the season injured.  Because Murphy’s back-up is Derrick Favors – and Favors played poorly in the preseason – this particular injury could really hurt.

Whether or not Murphy plays, though, the Nets should improve on their 12 wins from last season.  This is because the team is primarily employing players who produce in the positive range.  The lone exceptions are Quinton Ross (who might be the back-up shooting guard) and the aforementioned Favors (although projecting rookies is difficult).

How much Murphy ultimately plays is not something we can project easily.  But we can offer a projection if he does play. At least Arturo Galletti can do this.  Arturo has offered projections of every team, and according to his extensive analysis (and it really was quite extensive) the Nets will win 39 games in 2010-11.  In fact, Arturo has the Nets making the playoffs.  Wow!!

Again, I think Arturo expects Murphy to play and be productive. In fact, Arturo also expects Favors to contribute (despite his preseason numbers). So this might be an optimistic projection.

By the way, if you don’t like this projection – or even if you just want to see more and more and more projections – one can look at the Wages of Wins Network Stat Smackdown.  There you will see that even if people agree that Wins Produced is a fairly good idea, projections of the future will still differ.

One last note… Andres Alvarez says the automated Wins Produced numbers should be available throughout the season.  He thinks updates each week are possible (with the first numbers coming out in a week or so). So it looks like this season we will be able to evaluate all players via Wins Produced throughout the year.  Once again, thanks to Andres for making this possible.

- DJ

One of the stories told in Stumbling on Wins is that draft position is a poor predictor of an NBA player’s future per-minute productivity.  A player’s college numbers are a better predictor, although the link between college and pro performance is not nearly as good as we would like. 

Up until a few weeks ago, though, all we had were those college numbers. But with the preseason now complete, we now have more numbers (thanks to Doug Steele) to use in our evaluation of rookies.

Back in 2008, a model was offered connecting a player’s regular season per-minute Win Score (WSMIN) to his per-minute Win Score in college and the preseason. This model has now been updated.  Utilizing 80 observations from 2007, 2008, and 2009; the aforementioned model was re-estimated. The results indicate that 61% of a rookie’s regular season WSMIN is explained by what he did in his last year in college and the prior preseason.  This isn’t perfect.  But the explanatory power is better than what you see if you consider college and preseason performance alone.

And what do you see when you look at both college and preseason performance?  There were 19 rookies who played college basketball and at least 100 minutes in the past preseason (at least, I was able to find data on 19 rookies). The following table presented what these rookies did and then uses this information to predict WSMIN and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] for the 2010-11 season [as noted in the past, one can use WSMIN to project WP48].

And here is what we learn from this analysis:

• Blake Griffin appears to be very good.  The model predicts his WP48 will be 0.279.  Since 1977-78, only twenty players 21 years old or younger have posted WP48 marks equal to or better than 0.279.  And the names on the list put Giffin in very good company. As the following table illustrates, if Griffin’s production matches this prediction he will join a list that includes Magic Johnson (listed twice), Shaquille O’Neal (listed twice), Michael Jordan, Chris Paul, Tim Duncan, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Dwight Howard.  In sum, the Clippers appear to have found a star.  

• After Griffin, the next best rookie – among rookies taken in the first round — is Evan Turner.  Last season Tyreke Evans was named Rookie of the Year and posted a 0.159 WP48.  Such production led all first round draft picks last year (although DeJuan Blair – as second round pick in 2009 – posted a higher mark). Turner projects to be somewhat more productive than Evans, so that will give fans of the Sixers something to watch (on a team that might not have much else to be excited about). 
• As good as Evan Turner might be, Landry Field and Jeremy Evans might be even more productive. Both of these players, though, were taken in the second round.  And given the link between draft position and minutes played (those taken later play less), it is possible neither will play enough to make much of a difference for their respective teams.
• That will not be the story for John Wall.  Wall will definitely get minutes.  And because John Wall will probably score, he will receive consideration for Rookie of the Year (although Griffin scored more per game in the preseason).  But Wall has yet to post outstanding numbers.  He didn’t do it in college last year; and he didn’t do it in the preseason.  Now does this mean Wall will never be great? NO (as I have said before).  It does mean, though, that Wall has yet to be great.  And I think it is unlikely (although certainly possible) that Wall will be “great” his rookie season (although Wall might become a “great” player later in his career).
• Around the draft there was some debate concerning Wall and DeMarcus Cousins.  The former was considered the better player.  The latter had better college numbers.  When we look at college and preseason, though, Wall and Cousins are not much different [with Wall having a slightly higher projected WP48].  So maybe the Wizards were wise to pass on Cousins. Passing on Turner, though, may not have been the right call.
• Finally, we have the last name on the list. Derrick Favors was offered to the Denver Nuggets for Carmelo Anthony. So far it looks like the Nuggets were wise to pass on that offer.  Sure, Melo is overrated. But he does offer something.  So far Favors… well, he didn’t offer much these past few weeks.

Again, we need to emphasize that these are only projections.  And all that is being projected is the first season. Back in 2007, Kevin Durant’s rookie season was projected with these two data points.  That projection indicted that Durant would struggle as a rookie.  Although Durant did not play well as a rookie (so the projection was correct in Durant’s case), he ultimately did get much, much better.  A similar story could play out for any of these players (then again, it might not). 

All we can see is that using data from college and the preseason does tell us more than we knew with just data from the NCAA.  But these two data sets don’t tell us everything (and in a few days, we will start to see what we haven’t seen so far).

- DJ

RaptorsHQ published a Q&A today.  The questions I answered were asked over several weeks, and the topics cover such issues as

• how did I become interested in sports economics and basketball?
• variations in the Wins Produced metric (different ways people have changed the measure)
• the value of Andrea Bargnani
• will the Raptors be as bad in 2010-11 as the Nets in 2009-10?

These interviews are always fun (so thanks to RaptorsHQ for sending along the questions).  And so far there are more than 50 comments on this interview (I haven’t read most of these, but apparently what I said sparked some interest).

- DJ

Arturo Galletti – at “Arturo’s Silly Little Stats” – has offered a review/preview of the Miami Heat (reposted below).  The big question he addresses: How will the injury to Mike Miller impact the Heat’s pursuit of the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls?  The answer… well, the Bulls record will probably stand for another year.

For want of a nail, the shoe was lost;
For want of a shoe, the horse was lost;
For want of a horse, the rider was lost;
For want of a rider, the battle was lost;
For want of a battle, the kingdom was lost,
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail. -Proverb

Since I started this blog, I’ve written quite a bit about the Miami Heat. This is only natural as it’s the biggest off-season basketball story in three years.

The Miami Heat are now the Bad Guys, the main event.

Strangely Appropriate as Team Dillinger's Mascot

They will sell out every stadium and put on a basketball show not seen since the 86 Celtics. They will get booed lustily by some and loved by others. Lebron actually has a gleam in his eye that is, dare I say it, Jordan-esque.

My first impression of this team was that they will not be denied. As with the Celtics in 2008 with Garnett,Pierce & Allen, the Bulls in 1996 with Jordan,Rodman & Pippen and the Celts in 1986 with Walton joining Bird and McHale, when three stars (with at least one superstar) come together on one team, the expectations skyrocket. The media circus begins. The usual suspects say it’ll never work, they’ll scream about they’re not being enough balls to go around.

Those of us who remember our basketball history prepare for the inevitable coronation cause chances are that we know how this story ends. Or do we get ahead of ourselves? Before we get to that let’s take a look at who the Heat were and how they got here. (Before we do that go here for the basics behind all the models and maths if you’re new at this sort of thing)

This has all happened before

Wait, how's this get in here

The Miami Heat in 2009-2010

It’s easy to forget that the Miami Heat were a decent team last year. They won 47 games. They went 12-1 in their last 13 games to gain the 5th Seed in the East. Dwayne Wade was amazing and channeled 1986 Jordan against the Celtics in the playoffs (no 6-24 here). What a pity the rest of the Heat thought he was staging a re-enactment of that series and they were playing the 1986 Bulls. However it’s what happened after the season was over that was truly amazing.

Riley took the rest of the league out to the woodshed in the offseason. He simply understood the lucky opportunity before him better than anyone and seized upon it. As evidence:

• Understanding that Wade,Bosh and LBJ wanted to play together and quietly adjusting his Cap Room accordingly.
• Drafting two bigs to fill his roster gaps.
• Dumping Beasley and getting two of David Khans draft picks.
• Signing Lebron, Wade and Bosh to his team and leaving himself $9.49 m in to play with. Which got them Miller and House. Which helped them keep Miller’s college roommate Haslem this was apparently a package deal. Throw in one more average players in Arroyo.

Riley manuvered his team into 2 superstars (Wade & Lebron), two stars (Miller & Bosh), a super cheap good big (Haslem) , an average point guard in Arroyo and a combination of young and old cheap players to surround them. So this summer, Riley pulled off his own Jo Barry Carroll trade. Somewhere, Red Auerbach is impressed. The only real misstep is not bringing in the veteran Erick Dampier (.162 WP48 last Season) to reinforce them at the center position.

Please chose the response that's right for you

Now that we’re done signing his praises let’s take a look at the talent Riley brought to South Beach.

The Miami Heat in 2010-2011

After my love letter to Pat Riley and taking a look at the roster above, Miami to me looked assured of winning the East.
In fact, after I did my last season projection for every NBA Team (go here), I was all set to crown the Heat as Eastern Champions and declare my simpatico with Jeff Van Gundy. In fact, when Prof. Berri initially asked for my help on team reviews my reply was that I really wanted to do the Heat. I had the post all written up. What was the title of my initial review? “For god’s sake take the over” (and I even foreshadowed this narrative here )

A funny thing happened before I could put it up. One of the Heat’s three best players, a former rookie of the year, and a critical piece in my thinking that they would obliterate 64.5 wins for the over got hurt. Not Dwayne Wade, sports fans. Mike Miller hurt his thumb and will probably miss more than 25 games. Now a casual fan would think “Mike Miller, who’s he? they don’t need him!!”. That fan would be wrong. Let’s break out some tables:

The baseline prediction was 70.3 games. Add in 1.8 extra wins because the East is lousy this year (explained here , please ignore all the ESPN announcers claiming that the West is the worst they’re totally and completely wrong) and I got 72.2 wins and you’ll note that Lebron, Wade and Bosh were playing fewer minutes than in 2010. So 72 wins, while being conservative. Insane but sadly if I account for Miller injuries and add in the artist formerly known as Jerry Stackouse:

64.4 wins. Granted this does not assume maximum minutes for Wade, Bosh and Lebron but all evidence points to this being the prudent choice. So not only is history out but not having Miller puts this team within reach of more than a few teams according to my projections (Portland, LA, San Antonio, Boston, Chicago) for the number one overall seed and make the 64.5 over/under from Vegas seem prescient. Don’t get me wrong, Miami is still the clear favorite but this just went from a walkover to a fight. To tell the truth, as a Celtics fan, I really could not be happier.

Arturo Galletti – at “Arturo’s Silly Little Stats” – has offered a few studies of rookies recently (see his “Prove me Wrong” series HERE, HERE, and HERE).  His latest – reposted below – is a quick look at the preseason rookie numbers.  In the next day or so I am going to build upon the story Arturo is telling below.

So, I’ve been working on the model, a team review and my next series all day and I haven’t had the time to pull a full post together. I did throw together a nice table on preseason numbers for rookies and I thought people might get a kick out of it:

If I look at hit rate (WP48 <.100) for rookies playing 60 minutes or more in the preseason the undrafted outperform the draftees 33% of 18 vs 28% of 32. They’re also 7 of the top 14. Yes, I know, preseason. :-)

Good night & God bless.