The big story in the NBA this season has been the Miami Heat. The expectation was that this team would dominate. But after 18 games, the Heat’s record stands at 10-8. So the Heat have currently underwhelmed.
The Miami Heat Index – one of the blogs in The Wages of Wins network – is doing a wonderful job of covering the problems in Miami. For example, the post from last Saturday went to great lengths to detail the many problems facing this team.
One of these problems is the play of LeBron James. By my calculation, LeBron posted a 0.441 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] and produced 27.2 wins last season. This season LeBron is still very good. But after 18 games, King James is only on pace to produce 15.2 wins (a mark that still leads the Heat) and is posting a 0.236 WP48. The difference between what LeBron did in 2009-10 and what he is doing this year does much to explain the problems in Miami.
Once again, the Miami Heat Index has this story covered. But I bring it up because I want to note that something similar is happening elsewhere. Yes, there is another team that is substantially underperforming expectations. And much of this team’s decline can be tied to a drop-off in the productivity of the team’s star small forward.
What team am I talking about? Obviously I am referring to the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Okay, maybe this isn’t so obvious. The Thunder currently have a 12-6 record. And the team’s star small forward – Kevin Durant – leads the NBA in scoring. So how can this situation be similar to what we are seeing in Miami?
Well, let’s start with the Thunder’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency). After 18 games, the Thunder’s mark is 0.2. Such a differential is consistent with a team that will win about 42 games across an 82 game schedule. Last season the Thunder’s differential was 3.6, which is consistent with a team that wins about 50 games (the team actually won 50 games). So when we consider efficiency differential, the Thunder have declined by about eight wins.
This decline, though, hasn’t been noticed by many yet. This is because although the Thunder’s current differential is consistent with a team that would win nine of their first 18 games, the Thunder have actually won 12 games. In contrast, the Heat’s problems have been magnified because the Heat have only won 10 out of 18 games; when their differential suggests this team should have won around 12 or 13 games.
The Thunder’s “decline” though appears to be real. And when we move from efficiency differential to Wins Produced, we can see the source of this problem.
The above table reveals that the Thunder are currently being led in Wins Produced by Russell Westbrook, a player John Hollinger thinks should be considered for MVP in 2011 (insider access required). Although Westbrook has been good, there are few players who have done more in the NBA (Chris Paul is one name that obviously leaps to mind). None of those players, though, are on the Thunder.
Last season the Thunder were led by Kevin Durant. Durantula, though, has decline with respect to shooting efficiency, rebounds, steals, and free throw attempts. He is also offering more turnovers. As a consequence, Durant’s WP48 has declined from 0.292 last season to only 0.102 after 18 games this season. In other words, Durant has transformed from a superstar to a player who is essentially average (average WP48 is 0.100). As a result, Durant is on pace to offer 11.1 wins fewer than he produced in 2009-10.
Although Durant has clearly decline, this drop-off has been mostly unnoticed (well, Hollinger noticed the decline in shooting efficiency in the same column declaring Westbrook an MVP candidate). Certainly the volumes written on LeBron and the Heat dwarf what has been said about Durant and the Thunder. And I think that difference is at least partially driven by
- Thunder’s relative good luck (i.e. a won-loss record that exceeds what the team’s differential suggests).
- the fact Durant leads the NBA in scoring.
If Durant doesn’t return to form, though, eventually the losses on this team will happen with more frequency. And then – scoring title or not – the high hopes fans of this team has at the start of this season will be dashed. Of course, if Durant does return to form…well, then we will probably never hear much about this story (except briefly in this forum).
Just noting a change in performance is often not good enough for many people. What people demand is an explanation. So let me close with my explanation for why Kevin Durant and LeBron have both declined.
LeBron entered the league in 2003 when Durant was 15 years old. I suspect — given this age when LeBron became a star — that Durant was a fan of King James. In fact, I think he is such a fan that he cannot imagine offering a greater level of production than his hero. So when Durant observed LeBron struggling, he deliberately began making mistakes (in fact, Hollinger noted the air balls Durant has recently launched).
And I think LeBron has noticed this, and this is why he is offering less. Yes, this is like the seen in the King and I (am I dating myself with this reference?) where the king kept lowering his head to see how far others would lower their heads. LeBron demands that Durant offer less. And LeBron keeps offering less himself to see how far Durant will obey the natural order of the universe.
Okay, that’s a pretty silly explanation. I will note, though, that this story is no more silly than the convoluted explanations I have seen across the past few years for why Allen Iverson had a low-level of shooting efficiency and Eddy Curry was not very good at grabbing rebounds (my explanation…Iverson can’t shoot and Curry can’t rebound). But if you have an even sillier explanation for any of this, please feel free to post it in the comments J
- DJ
P.S. Forgot to mention one explanation for Durant’s decline… sometimes over small samples of games a player’s performance can deviate from his long-run average. In other words, random stuff happens. There might be another explanation. But the “random stuff happens” is sometimes the best explanation and should be considered before the “convoluted explanations” are tossed out there.
Unacceptable, admit you were wrong already :)
Durant could be returning to form. He wasn’t so great before last year, and perhaps last year was an abberation.
Or, perhaps the way he was used in the FIBA tournament brought back some bad habits. Or just tired him out and prevented him from training for the season in a more productive manner.
The Thunder may also suffer from losing assistant coach Ron Adams, who was in charge of the team’s defense. He came back to the Bulls this year, where the defense has thrived. His tenure with the Thunder corresponds remarkably with their winning ways:
http://newsok.com/loss-of-assistant-coach-ron-adams-could-be-biggest-offseason-move/article/3508398
LOL – The Durant explanation was hilarious. It reminded me of an episode of Frasier when he couldn’t beat his father at chess because he had too much respect & admiration for him and would feel bad if he beat him.
Thanks for the shout out & compliment, too!
Well, I think Iverson could shoot pretty well. he just had abysmal judgment on what a good shot was. He apparently thought any shot he himself took was a good one.
Now he’s stinking the joint out in Turkey. And he isn’t even really all that old.
booze : iverson :: cocaine : rick james
7/22 Monday night, unconscionable.
While the media has acknowledged that Durant has struggled, no one is harping on it because the media gives an early pass to guys who deserve it.
Lebron came out and said everything will be easy and acted a fool. Durant came out and said he and his team need to work harder.
I got no problem with that.
I haven’t examined any potential reasons for Durant’s decline but I did notice it and agree with the article. I do think there are some clear reasons for Lebron’s decline that may or may not be random.
1. He’s shooting less often (probably not random given the make up of the team)
2. He’s hitting a lower percentage of his 3s. (probably random)
3. He’s shooting more jumpers and getting fewer close in shots and dunks. (this could be random, the fact that Wade and James both want to do the same thing so there are fewer opportunities for each to slash, drive, etc…., or because they are missing a key piece like Miller whose role would have been to be a major threat from outside and help create space for James and Wade to operate)
I need to be educated. Quite often, here and on other WoW network blogs, the number of wins out of 82 are projected based on efficiency differentials.
I understand how E.D. is derived and how Wins Produced is derived from E.D. However, I don’t know how total team wins over a season are projected from E.D.
Feel free to shoot an email or leave a comment if you’re inclined to enlighten me :)
Speaking of sample sizes………
I’ve been comparing efficiency differentials from 2009 and so far in 2010 and noticed a few things.
In a few instances, I was able to accurately project changes in the 2010 ratings as time passed in 2010 based on the team’s 2009 rating and my knowledge of the team’s changed makeup, injuries etc…
I guess what I am saying is that there are sample size issues with efficiency differential during the beginning of a new season and that insights gleamed from the prior year can be helpful in evaluating a team.
In any event, at what point is the sample size for a year large enough that point differential starts to accurately reflect the ability of the team instead of a lot of short term randomness and noise?
Unfortunately, I lack the statistical background to answer even that simple question. I took the classes, but it was so long ago it seems like another lifetime.
brgulker,
Various advanced stats guys have given me different answers to that question ranging from 2.4 wins per point to 3 wins per point. I took it upon myself to study the 2009 yesterday.
I think the answer is a little less than 3 games over or under .500 for every point you are positive or negative (then again I am no expert at this sort of calculation).
If I am correct if you have a team with a point differential of +3 that would be 3 x3 = 9 + 41 = 50 games. I am using 3 to round it off and make the math easier. Perhaps the real answer is between 49-50.
-3 would = 32-33
+7 would = 61-62
Brgulker:
The link between efficiency differential & winning percentage is in the technical notes at stumblingonwins.com.
Some dude:
It’s more likely that the media is giving Durant a pass because he’s leading the league in scoring than because he said his team needed to work harder. Gimme a break…
>>The link between efficiency differential & winning percentage is in the technical notes at stumblingonwins.com. <<
Pages 141-143
Unless you are doing an academic paper, I think it's a lot easier to use 3 and subtract a little because you can do it your head in 10 seconds and rarely be off by more than one game.
When I am making wagers, I realize I am often working with a lot of numbers that have some error built in. The trick is not to get the decimal points correct. The trick is to have a large margin of safety that the market odds are wrong. :)
D. Berri
Even though efficiency differential is a better predictor of team success doesn’t than win/loss record, doesn’t win loss record also tell you something.
It seems to me that most teams don’t give 100% of everything they have 100% of the time. Games often have a somewhat random ebb and flow that tends to favor the better team and teams raise or lower their intensity level depending on the score (making runs that sometimes eventually gas them).
That’s especially true in the 4th quarter.
If the game is close, everyone gives 100%.
If the game is a blowout, everyone relaxes, eventually bench players are put in etc… and sometimes the lead drops from significantly in garbage time.
I’ve already noted the risk associated with the expectation of a superior team beating a very inferior one by a lot of points. They often run up the score and then do things late in the game that cinch the win without worrying about the margin or throw in the scrubs and watch it evaporate. lmao
Given two teams with similar efficiency differentials, I think I would favor the one with the better win/loss record because it could be telling me something about these kinds of dynamics that impact winning margins and efficiency differential.
Perhaps Oklahoma City is a little better than they look.
brgulker – to make it simpler than looking up something if i’m not wrong what efficiency differential projects is basically pythagorean wins.
so something like o-rating^16 / (o-rating^16/d-rating^16) just to make it simple. what it provides is a win percentage. and you can then use that to predict wins based on remaining games.
or as noted above the more direct easy route of using it to go directly to wins. and maybe that’s the correct way.
oh sorry: o-rating^16 / (o-rating^16 + d-rating^16) = projected win %
projected win % * 82 = projected wins
something like that. i’ve seen different exponents used, which is probably where IS above gets anywhere from 2.4 to 3 wins per point from.
using 16 as the exponent makes each point worth roughly 3.1 wins.
“It’s more likely that the media is giving Durant a pass because he’s leading the league in scoring than because he said his team needed to work harder. Gimme a break…”
Based on what? I think the behaviour explanation has merits. Durant has been the antithesis of Lebron’s ‘decisionness’ over the off season. James set himself up for a fall so it is no suprise the media is jumping all over him and the Heat.-
RG – The media never gave Kobe that pass when he was scoring 35 a game.
The media has been waiting forever to cash in the Lebron hype train and it didn’t pan out. Now with a new chance, they’ve floundered at the beginning. NBA Fans outside of Miami (and really, there are no nba fans in miami, sorry RG) are disgusted with Lebron and now the media is going to ride that wave since Lebron hasn’t delivered on his promises.
This is the American media. They build you up to tear you down whether you’re ARod or Kobe or Tiger or even Lebron. Durant’s young and coming up so he gets his pass right now, but the sharks will turn on him too if he slips up.
It’s Lebron’s turn to take the punches. How he responds is what matters, though his antics aren’t helping much. He shouldn’t be leaking stories about his coach wanting him to act serious.
Wade and James both sucking on end of shot clock FG% this season, far off past numbers. Bosh is getting a larger share of his shots at the end of shot clock than in Toronto and he is doing very well, better than before. Can and do opposing teams bring the double-teamed at the end of shot clock or not?
Bosh’s shots in the first 10 seconds of the clock are down sharply compared to the past as Wade and James fight to maintain their share of these early looks and have been largely successful on that. Bosh’s changed shot clock distribution would not be picked up by simple year to year projection systems of individuals. The early and late in the shot clock changes happen largely offset for his FG% but in general there are lots of significant other stat impacts from the 3 former #1 offensive foci becoming a trio.
At what point do we admit that team dynamics might play some role in individual performances? That when one’s teammates aren’t playing as well as before, it can have some effect on one’s stats….and therefore wins produced?
I’ve always enjoyed reading this stuff, but the determination to boil wins down to individual performances – essentially ignoring how the players interact and complement each other – has always been a huge problem for me. Some things can’t be quantified.
Durant has lost a bit off his shot frequency in the first 10-seconds of the shot clock too but not near the size as with Bosh, and it is only a small part of his season to date change from last season. The wear of summer play, some injury issues and huge minutes may also be factors.
@fricktho, running a linear regression on wins last season gives ~2.5 wins per point (wins = 2.54*delta_points+40.9), with an R^2 of ~0.94.
“RG – The media never gave Kobe that pass when he was scoring 35 a game. ”
Kobe is the most adored player in basketball. How often do you hear how he quit on his team in the second half of the playoff series v the Suns a few years back? Or what his winning percentage was without Shaq or Pau?
You’re proving his point.
I liek the way you think, Adam.
“At what point do we admit that team dynamics might play some role in individual performances? That when one’s teammates aren’t playing as well as before, it can have some effect on one’s stats….and therefore wins produced?”
Every system has some amount of error in describing/predicting player and team performance. It’s perfectly reasonable to think that part of this error is caused by team dynamics or other things that you think can’t be quantified. I don’t think Dave or the other Wages of Wins related bloggers have ever denied this. However, those who typically bring up team dynamics rarely have evidence stronger than “the Heat aren’t as good as you thought, admit you were wrong!” If you or anyone else can put together a compelling story with some data or predictions or anything beyond these terrible anecdotal arguments, you’d likely find everyone way more receptive to what you’re saying. I think you could even get it posted here.
Another thought – maybe it’s time for Dave to start asking the usage/efficiency crowd to “admit they were wrong.” After all, haven’t the big 3 seen both usage and efficiency drops?
Adam – Until he won his 4th title, all the damn time. Where you in a bunker at the time?
Winning creates the silence, nothing else.
Anyone notice that the Lakers only 2 fewer losses than the Heat?
Also, did anyone notice that the lakers started 8-0 while Bryant was taking 17 shots per game and getting 24 PG. Then the Media started saying that Gasol was the MVP candidate. Then Bryant started taking 26 shots per (32 PG) over the last 11 games. Anyone notice the lakers are 5-6 in those 11 games where Kobe has been trying to prove that HE is the MVP for the Lakers.
As someone who has watched every Laker game, you couldn’t be more wrong.
Phil has overworked Gasol and he’s tired out and Kobe has had those shots forced upon him. The amount of times Gasol has passed out of the post without a double team has at least doubled and the amount he even attempts to post up has dropped significantly, too. Kobe has been given the ball so many more times with the clock under 6 seconds left asked to bail them out the last 2 weeks.
Ever since Theo Ratliff got hurt, the Lakers have had no backup center and their only backup big is a 2nd round rookie. Pau has worn down as he’s played over 42mpg since Theo went out.
Kobe isn’t trying to prove he’s the MVP. Gasol tired out because Phil Jackson has rode him too hard.
Pau is so soft it’s ridiculous… He’s averaging 38.7 mpg this season (his 10th year). KG averaged 38.1 mpg in his 10th year and played all 82 games. That’s why I can’t take him seriously as the best big man in the league. He whines and he flops. Duncan, KG & Shaq never flopped when they were the best big men in the league and there was never any crying about them playing too many minutes.
So when pau gasol wasn’t getting 40 mpg and was getting less, he averaged 17 shot attempts a game, but now that his minutes are up, he’s averaging less than 13?… Does that seem right?
Also, kobe has increased his shot attempts by 7 so… All the shots that gasol has not taken AND some are going to kobe… And in the last few seconds. Hmm… Thank you lord kobe for doing what it takes for the team. But wait, there’s more. The dip in kobe’s shooting percentage would suggest that he’s missed the big majority of the extra shots he’s taking so… It may seem like maybe, just maybe, kobe should pass the ball.
I’ve watched the games and to me it seems like kobe is just taking more shots instead of passing, but… It is lord kobe. But wait, there’s more. If it wasn’t for kobe’s abilty to draw double teams (and still shoot) there would be rebounds for gasol and odom to get (although there hasn’t been a noticeable increase or decrease in their rebound numbers – I add this, cuz I’ve heard that his misses are able to get rebounded easier).
Kobe is just so good, that it just doesn’t seem to make much sense. Maybe I should stop thinking logically.
Entity, yes it seems right. He had been playing tired and he has had a hamstring injury. If you watched the games you’d see him looking much much slower out there. He was not moving nearly like he was 2-3 weeks ago. He’s not posting up nearly as much (until last night).
I’ll agree that Kobe has upped his shots willingly a bit by forcing his offense, but most of the increase has come from the team dumping it to him with less time on the shot clock than usual forcing him into a scoring position. In fact, Phil Jackson just criticized the team for that very thing, claiming the team keeps dumping him the ball with 6 or less seconds and then waiting for him to do something. He called out the non-Kobe players to start running the offense again. I’ll take Phil and my own eyes over yours.
And Pau was awful in the last 3 losses. 5/15, 5/13, 2/8 during 3 of the losses. And his defense was even worse as Hibbert, little bro, and even Landry outplayed him and he gave no help D against the little pgs who scored layups at will.
Your sarcasm regarding “lord Kobe” just shows your bias. The team is far better off when they’re running the offense through Pau or Bynum in the post and those guys go to work. But when Pau tires out like this or is hobbled, and he doesn’t burden as much as the offense he needs to, dominoes fall. We end up with less cutting and tougher 3s for the other players. When these things happen, Kobe has to shoulder more of the load, but that also means lower percentage shots. Sure, Kobe forces some at times which is bad, but most other timess he’s put in a position where he has to force. And it’s not like he stopped passing, he’s still getting the same assists, really.
Once Andrew comes back, the offense will be back to normal.
RG – Pau is really more of a PF playing the C spot and he’s banging with much bigger dudes. Also Pau isn’t 27/28 like KG was his 10th year. Those 2 years at that age are pretty significant. KG was always a PF and played more face up. Not a great comparison.
This argument that Kobe has to take shots as the shot clock’s running out is getting kind of old. Kobe has years of data showing that he takes a large amount of shots. It’s just what he does. He’s a chuck. I’ve watched the games. I seriously have. He takes bad shots. Early in the shot clock and late.
As a matter of fact, the same percentage of Kobe’s shots in the final seconds of the shot clock is the same as the average percentage for the entire team. Last year, 13% of Kobe’s shots came in the last 3 seconds of the shot clock and for the entire team, it was 13%. Therefore, everyone on the team has to deal with shot clock issues. it’s on 82games.com. Shot clock usage. Everyone deals with it.
Last year, both Lebron and Dwyane Wade took a higher percentage of their shots towards the end of the shot clock. The data’s on 82games.com, so your argument of the shot clock is weak. Everyone has to deal with it. If there’s 3 seconds left on the shot clock, derek fisher isn’t gonna look around wondering where kobe is to take the shot. He’s shooting.
It’s like every year, (whether shaq or gasol or neither is there) Kobe has to carry this “scoring load”. It’s never been just bad shot selection. Last year in the playoffs, he had to carry the “scoring load”. In game 7 against the Celtics, he had to carry the “scoring load”. Yet somehow, when he’s not there, his teammates don’t notice a decline in shooting efficiency. When Derek Fisher was on different teams, he didn’t notice much difference in shooting efficiency. Ron Artest’s scoring efficiency didn’t change significantly, but somehow, kobe’s carrying the “scoring load”. C’mon man. I don’t know what you’re seeing, but the data disagrees. Your argument is wack.
That’s a nice little straw man you’ve set up. Somehow you’ve extrapolated a 4 game or so claim into years and years of an argument!
The comment made implied that Kobe is shooting more at Pau’s expense over the last few games. But that is flat out incorrect as anyone who actually watched all those games would attest. Pau was not moving well physically, was hanging out around the 3 point line a lot, and subsequently not being assertive. He was gassed. Sorry, but I refuse to believe you watched all those games because you’d then be ignoring the obvious.
As a Laker fan, no one has been more thrilled with Pau’s early season performance as he’s demanded the ball a lot and went at people. And I’ve watched every game and the last few games this completely changed. As a result Kobe, and even Lamar, have become more aggressive to compensate (Lamar against Houston was extremely aggressive to every Laker fan’s surprise, though he fizzled in the 4th a bit probably due to fatigue as well).
The argument isn’t whether Kobe has forced the issue numerous times (he has) or that it’s been a detriment (he has). The argument is that in that recent 4 or so game span that he did it. I can easily say he hasn’t, for the most part. Of course there were plays here or there where he did, but most of his shots were within the offense with the exception of the final minute 3 point chucks when the team was behind (which is justified). Heck, in the final minutes of 2 games he went to Ron Artest to try get the game.
You can’t look at shot clock data and make a determination. Lebron’s offense came mostly from him holding the ball for a long time and pounding it and then shooting and same with Wade. Sometimes this happens late in the clock. Lakers have a lot more ball movement than either Miami or Cleveland last year. Kobe, with the exception of end of quarter/game scenarios, is almost never in this spot. His end of shot clock shots usually come when the ball is given to him late after the play has broke down. Shot clock % does not tell you when the person initiated the offensive play, only when it ended.
Kobe doesn’t need to shoulder the “scoring load” most nights, anymore. Sometimes his teammates forget this, but people like you want to lay all the blame on just Kobe just because you look at stats. Stats don’t ever tell the whole story.
If someone went 2/7 from 3point line you would say they shot the 3 point ball poorly that night and should have shot less, but what if I told you 2 of those “shots” were 70 foot heaves with 1 second on the clock after inbounding from full court? B-b-b-ut the stat sheet says so!
Anyway, Kobe is being more aggressive but it’s a choice borne out of Pau’s obvious slump (be it injury, fatigure, or whatever) and the team looking for him to bail them out too much. He hasn’t been forcing the issue ala game 7 Boston or anything close. Most of his shot choices have been good, but he’s also had some bad bounces. Against Utah, in particular, he missed about 4 gimme shots in the paint pretty much uncontested (Pau and Barnes missed some bunnies in that one too. Was a strange game). I’m critical of everyone’s play on the team, including Kobe. But I’ve been fine with him these games. I’ve been critical of Pau’s D, but mostly critical of Phil for overplaying him and Lamar and not giving Caracter at least a chance.
Some dude:
Miraculously, without any NBA fans, Miami leads the NBA in attendance (according to basketball-reference.com).
Also, I will say you’re right that Fisher won’t look for Kobe to take the shot with 3 seconds left. Fisher has some cajones and no one takes worse shots on the team that him (I mean that sincerely). But Brown, Barnes, Odom, Artest (when he’s not on the moon) and sometimes even Pau does it. Did you see the final play the other night? Ron Artest rebounds the ball, runs to the 3 point line, doesn’t shoot…looks around throws it to Odom who is open for 3 (and having his best year from 3) and instead throws it to Kobe who is behind him with 3 seconds left in the game. Kobe was so stunned he got the ball in that spot when Odom was basically open for 3 it took him a second to process what just happened and then he saw the clock, and shot an airball from 35 feet away. Facepalms could not explain how horrible Lamar’s decision was, but Kobe will end up being hurt by that one in the statsheet as if being dumped the ball 35 feet away to shoot a 3 is his fault.
Last year my biggest pet peeve would be the bench’s play with Kobe in the game. Either Farmar or Brown would fail to get the ball into the post, run around with the heads cut off like chickens trying to drive, and with 5 seconds left find Kobe somewhere and get him the ball. Almost made me want to pull my hair out. Thank God Shannon got confident over the summer as he is doing it a lot less this season and nothing pleases me more than seeing Farmar and his horrible BBIQ gone from the team and replaced with Blake. This is laker fans hated then hated the bench last season.
RG – ticket sales do not present who actually attends games. Also, take it from someone who knows about it, those numbers are all faked. Watch a Clipper vs Wolves game and see that the attendance is 17,000 in a 20k arena on record, but notice that the stadium is half empty and some of those tickets were given away. This is one of those cases where you eyes do outperform the stats.
But hey, maybe you guys have read your “how to be a fan” instruction manual.
http://www.b2cmarketinginsider.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/Miami-Heat-Fan-Up-e1290392138749.jpg
Defend this. I double-dog dare you.
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“Adam – Until he won his 4th title, all the damn time. ”
I live in Southern California and routinely interact with Laker fans. The most I have seen about the Lakers’ 70%+ winning percentage with Pau Gasol is an innocuous statistic under his name when he’s shooting free throws. Talking heads rarely mention it.
Suffice to say we shall agree to disagree.
EntityAbyss: I live in Southern California and watch the Lakers (and Clippers!) regularly, and I will second your assessment of Kobe. There has been little effort to feed the ball into the post during their losing streak.
It appears “some dude” is obviously a biased Kobe lover and is therefore incapable of rational discussion. As I have learned the hard way: try not to feed the trolls!
some dude,
As I’ve said before, end of quarter and end of shot-clock shots have a minor impact on the TS% of Kobe and other high-volume shooters. I doubt it’s more than 3%.
Also, as an aside, I saw the way that game ended (I assume you’re talking about Pacers-Lakers). Kobe was waving frantically for the ball, like a 4th grader begging to be called on in class. I think he wanted it. Then he ran right over about 10 feet from where Odom had the ball. Also, right next to Steve Blake. I think he still wanted it. Then he got it, and took a tough shot. That I think he wanted.
Odom was never open outside the 3-point line.
Artest did have some questionable decision making after grabbing the board – not passing to Kobe or Blake when they were both open at about :08 remaining on the clock, passing to Lamar inside of the 3-point arc (giving the Pacers an opportunity to intentionally foul).
Jackson later critisized Artest, saying he wanted him to call a timeout. Can’t anyone call a timeout? That was strange.
Sorry to interupt the conversation… but “some dude” is going to have to send me an e-mail (berri@suu.edu) if he wants to post comments in this forum anymore.