The Miami Heat are not loved by many people outside of Miami. And when the “Superfriends” struggled to start the season, joy was heard throughout the land (outside of Miami).
Naysayers noted, though, that the Heat’s early struggles were somewhat due to luck. The team’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) consistently ranked the Heat among the league’s best teams. So even though their won-loss record indicated the Heat were close to “average”, stats people tended to say “we still expect this team to be among the league’s best”.
Well, after just 23 games – yes, life changes fast at the start of a season in the NBA – we see the following:
- With a record of 15-8, the Heat are tied for 8th in the NBA in winning percentage (not the best record, but no longer “average”)
- The Heat are only four games behind the Spurs (the team with the best record)
- More importantly, the Heat’s efficiency differential of 9.298 ranks third in the league, behind only the Celtics (9.302) and the Spurs (9.57)
- The mark of 9.30 bests the mark of the Orlando Magic in 2009-10, the team that led the NBA last season with a differential of 7.95
In sum, Miami is actually a very good team. But as illustrated with the following table, Miami is not quite as good as the performance of the Heat’s players from 2009-10 would suggest.
This team’s Wins Produced (and efficiency differential) suggest that the Heat are on pace to win 64 games this year. But last year’s player performance suggest this team should win 70 games this year.
Looking at the numbers for the individual players we see that the players who have declined the most are none other than the two stars the Heat added this past summer. LeBron James and Chris Bosh are on pace to offer 16.9 fewer wins than the performance of these players in 2009-10 would indicate.
For Chris Bosh, this result is not that surprising. Prior to 2009-10, Bosh had never offered an ADJ P48 mark in excess of 0.500 (go HERE to see what ADJ P48 means). So his mark 0f 0.440 this year is not completely different from what we saw before last year.
What we see with respect to King James, though, is surprising. LeBron’s ADJ P48 mark of 0.463 is quite similar to what we saw before the 2006-07 season. However, relative to last year, LeBron has seen his per 48 minute productivity decline by 0.158. In other words, LeBron’s drop-off is equivalent to the Heat completely losing the services of an above average NBA player (average WP48 – or Wins Produced per 48 minutes – is 0.100).
Of course it is obvious why LeBron is offering less. This must be another classic example of diminishing returns. As a player’s teammates improve, we expect the player to offer less. LeBron now has better teammates, so now he must be offering a lower level of productivity. Right?
Well, that may not be the big story about LeBron. Although diminishing returns is something that data clearly says happens in the NBA (after all, there is only one ball), the fall of King James is mostly about something else. Consider the data reported in the following table.
When we think of diminishing returns, we first think about shot attempts (where the effect is the largest). And we do see that LeBron – relative to last year – is attempting fewer field goals and free throws. King James is also grabbing fewer rebounds, but that is probably not diminishing returns. Relative to LeBron’s 2009-10 teammates in Cleveland, his new teammates have a lower defensive rebounding percentage. So although LeBron is grabbing fewer defensive rebounds (the study reported in Stumbling on Wins suggests we don’t see diminishing returns with respect to offensive rebounds), LeBron’s drop-off with respect to defensive rebounds is probably not about diminishing returns.
The big story in LeBron’s decline is not diminishing returns (despite what we see with respect to shot attempts). The big story is his decline in shooting efficiency. Last year LeBron had a 54.5% adjusted field goal percentage. This year his mark is only 49.6%.
As noted a couple of days ago, changes in shooting efficiency has the largest impact on a player’s WP48. And LeBron appears to illustrate this point.
Consider his performance last year. When we consider net possession (rebounds + steals – turnovers), LeBron wasn’t much different from an average small forward. So how did he produce more wins than any other player in the NBA? King James hit his shots at a very high rate (and it helped that he got to the free throw line and dished out a few assists).
What’s interesting about LeBron’s shooting efficiency this year is that I think people would expect LeBron to be more proficient. After all, LeBron is now surrounded by better scorers. And I have heard that when a player is surrounded by more proficient scorers, the player’s shooting efficiency improves.
Well, actually we don’t see that in the data. A player’s shooting efficiency does not appear to be related to the shooting efficiency of his teammates (a result reported in Stumbling on Wins). So it was not guaranteed that LeBron would shoot better with better teammates.
One might also expect that fewer shots taken would result in more efficient scoring (the classic usage story). But again – as we report in Stumbling on Wins – that effect appears to be exaggerated. We do find that increases in field goal attempts lead to lower levels of shooting efficiency, but the impact is very small (see the book for the exact numbers). And with respect to LeBron this year, this small effect is not appearing (the effect we estimate is what we see in general, not in every instance).
Okay, we know LeBron has declined. We can see this isn’t really about diminishing returns. So what’s going on?
And this is where I run out of answers. Shooting efficiency is not as stable as other facets of player performance in the NBA (although it is still more stable than quite a bit of what we see in football). So maybe this is just a random fluctation. Or maybe there is a better explanation (and I sense people will offer some stories in the comment section).
Regardless of why LeBron is offering lower levels of shooting efficiency, we do know…
- LeBron is still the most productive player on the Heat.
- The Heat – even with LeBron offering less – are still one of the best teams in the NBA.
- There is a good chance that the Heat — even if LeBron doesn’t return to form — are going to disappoint all the “haters” (can I note that I “hate” the “haters” label – even if I just used it?)
And if LeBron starts hitting his shots, there is an excellent chance the Heat will claim the top spot in the NBA (after all, they are almost there in terms of efficiency differential).
- DJ
“Oh ye holy box score, please uncover how all my players are used in a two dimensional spreadsheet that fits nicely in the local daily newspaper.”
Look, I agree with 90% of this article, but the limited definition of “usage” (derived soley from the box score) is laughably simplistic in WoW (and most other advanced statistical models).
Tm – let me know when you come up with a better and more accurate projection system for wins, jerkoff. Or at least give me an explanation as to why the definition of usage here is too simplistic or better yet, better definitions of usage that you’ve seen.
Dave,
What I’ve noticed when watching the Heat – LeBron (and DWade to a lesser extent) simply aren’t getting the kinds of foul calls they have gotten in the past. Really, and there’s no better way of saying it, the Heat is suffering from the problem you identified: HATERS. Namely, amongst referees. Also, I’m guessing that increased vitriol from road crowds (combined with the lack of enthusiasm of Miami crowds) has influenced refs to call less fouls than they have in the past when LeBron goes to the rack.
Last year Lebron was getting a free throw for every 1.3 shots he took, while this year he’s taking a free throw for every 1.9 shots.
And if anyone out there has a breakdown of LBJ’s jump shots/shots in the paint this year compared to last, that could be the other explanation. Otherwise, I’m blaming it on the HATERS!
- Karl
Miami-Wade County til I die, long live the king. Alien life forms welcome along for the ride.
My completely non-scientific, subjective opinion based on observation: At the risk of sounding cliche, LBJ is settling for jumpshots.
A quick and dirty check of the data, 82games.com seems to agree with observation in this case …
http://www.82games.com/0809/08CLE9.HTM
http://www.82games.com/1011/10MIA8.HTM
More jumpers for LBJ this season vs. last season.
As to why more jumpers? I’m not sure. TBH (non-scientific observation again), it looks like they’re not sure what they’re supposed to be doing. LBJ defers to Wade who defers to Bosh, and then someone chucks up a jumpshot, for example. Whereas in years past, it was clear to Wade that he was responsible for initiating the offense, attacking the basket, and thus creating high percentage shots for himself or others. Same has always been true for LBJ. From what I’ve seen thus far, it looks like both players are erring on the side of deferring to the other, which has resulted in lots of low percentage jumpers.
I’d expect that to become more clear over time, and I’d expect LBJ’s TO’s and jumpshot attempts to decline over time as well. Maybe LBJ won’t be quite the superhuman according to WP that he’s been, but I’d expect a lot more moving forward.
Again, this is just me observing, so take it FWIW.
It would be insane if all three Heaters got FTA similar to last year’s. They alone would out FTA an entire team. So, it’s a little officiating bias, and just changing the level of play. For instance, LeBoob James is hitting at a lower clip because he is attempting a great deal of jumpshots, something he isn’t very good at and something that produces little FTA in comparison to attacking the rim. There, I figured out why LBJ is shooting at a lower percentage, but after reaping the souls of Clevelanders out there, he will probably increase his FG% as the season continues (more driving to the rim, except against Boston).
Is one likely explanation that LeBron is playing out of position – he makes a better small forward than he does a point guard? This fits his body type and what I see watching the games. If he were someone who is better finishing plays but is being asked to start them , then the extra ball-handling away from the basket could cause more turnovers, fewer rebounds, fewer blocks, and more low-percentage shots.
Another explaination: The Basketball gods. look at what happened when all 3 produced at last year’s level againts the Hawks; They out-scored the hawks by themselves 75 to 74, untill Bibby made a last second 3 to give the entire hawks team 77 points. The Basketball gods cannot allow that kind of production.
why do u feel the need to address lebron in almost EVERY sentence as ‘king james’? do u have a hardon for him or just like to bow down to him for no reason, very amusing..
also heat’s ~9 differential is over-inflated to me, it’d be nice to see eff. diff. for spurs, celtics and heat against +.500 teams.
Isn’t it great when you see a comment where an anonymous person
a. insults you
b. ask you to look at something for them
All in the same paragraph.
It’s esp. funE when write like theyR on twit. Must hav hardon for UR ‘tention.
I think JB makes a good point. You get everyone’s attention and effort defensively when you have the ball in your hand.
after watching a few Heat games this year brgulker is absolutely correct. they are settling for way too many jumpers. and not just lebron, as a team. the Heat are taking 26 shots per game in the 16-23 foot range, by far the most in the league, and they are taking only 16 shots per game at the rim, by far the fewest in the league (http://hoopdata.com/teamshotlocs.aspx).
an explanation for that is baffling.
Martinez’ comment made me laugh out loud. well played.
In the post- 26 references to Lebron; 4 references to King James (plus on in the title).
professor I didnt ask u directly to compute it, i said it would be nice to know :) and martinez, i didnt want to write out efficiency differential, cry me about it…i also dont type with random cApiTaliZaTion
Well, one very simple why his shooting efficiency is a little bit down from the previous two seasons (but not off his career average): He’s taking a smaller proportion of high percentage shots at the rim (i.e. dunks/layups). Look it up at Hoopdata.com.
Just to followup, if you look at his FG% from each shot distance, it’s remarkably consistent for James. It’s really about the proportion of shots from each locations. Doesn’t look like FT are a big part of the story either.
Also, James is one of those high volume shooters who is somewhat overpenalized by WP for missed FGA (well, in my opinion). See my post on it here:
http://thecity2.com/2010/12/07/debate-which-shooting-performance-is-better/
Evansz,
Interesting. However, if I’m not mistaken the regression includes 2 pointers made, 3 pointers made, missed shots, and points so the effects should already be accounted for in the model. I don’t know about the shape of the diminishing returns but it doesn’t seem very likely that it would vary with the number of shot attempts. It might vary with the type of shot though.
Been waiting 4 this post… Great job, Prof.
Why is LeBron’s shooting efficiency so low? He’s chucking up too many jumpers. I wouldn’t call it settling because it looks like he’s taking a lot of them early in the shot clock or decided early in the shot clock he was going to take the jumper. I can’t imagine what it must feel like to plow into 160+ inches & 475+ lbs in the paint 20 times a game but I can imagine it doesn’t feel good, so I understand why LBJ wouldn’t want to take all of his shots at the rim. But it really appears that he’s trying to ptove something w/ his jumper this year. A guy that works w/ the Nets shooting coach told me that was all LeBron worked on when he came to NJ in October and he feels that if he can replicate in games what he can do in practice then he’ll be unstoppable. Well, we got a glimpse of that in CLE, Utah & GSW. We’ll see if it continues.
I don’t buy the refs story, either. It could be true but it’s irrelevant. The Heat get to the line plenty and Wade & LBJ still get to the line much more frequently than the avg player at their respective positions.
As for him playing out of position, Spo hasn’t really played him at PG since the Wizards game on 11/29. By that, I mean he hasn’t been on the court w/out a PG. Before 11/29, Spo would start LBJ at PG in the 2nd & 4th qtrs and then sub him out for Arroyo. That rotation died 11/29 and hasn’t been seen since. Since then, LeBron doesn’t initiate the offense nearly as much after made baskets. He does dominate the ball at the end of the 1st & 3rd qtrs, but that’s because he’s usually on the floor w/ James Jones, Chalmers, Dampier & Juwan Howard.
As for the team settling for jumpers – more often than not they aren’t settling. That’s the way they want to play. Their offense is designed to get Z, Bosh & Howard jumpers from the high post just like Boston does w/ KG & Big Baby. Unlike Boston, they have PGs that can shoot in Arroyo & House and the offense is designe for them to knock down open jumpers from 16-23 ft while Boston can’t do that w/ Rondo. From what I read from the beat writers, it seems that Spo has given LBJ & Wade license to do what they want on offense once the ball crosses halfcourt but he now wants the PGs to get them into their sets instead of Wade/LBJ.
Finally, as far as the TOs… Nothing has frustrated me more (well, LBJs pull up 3s w/ 15 seconds on the shot clock did when he was missing them). LeBron’s turnovers are dropping since Spo stopped playing him at PG but Wade seems to be leveling out. He’s averaged this many TOs before & I think that’s just what he’s gonna be this season. A lethal scorer who turns the ball over.
Dave,
Great post… spot on. I wish the Bucks had accessed your research before they decided to reward John Salmons for his unusually hot shooting during the last two months of last season.
If you have the information handy, could you compare the seasonal fluctuations in basketball scoring efficiency to the seasonal fluctuations in batting average? For some reason I’ve gotten it into my head that the Bucks team wide brutal stretch of scoring inefficiency is analogous to a baseball team that suddenly appears collectively unable to hit. Maybe that’s way off base.
BTW, I still contend you were right that the Lions are much improved this season. This Sunday’s game will not be easy for Green Bay.
“What’s interesting about LeBron’s shooting efficiency this year is that I think people would expect LeBron to be more proficient. After all, LeBron is now surrounded by better scorers. And I have heard that when a player is surrounded by more proficient scorers, the player’s shooting efficiency improves. ”
Hmm, look at James Jones, Eddie House, and Mario Chalmers. They are the 3 players most likely to benefit from open looks – and what do you know, they’re outproducing their output from last year by a huge margin. Something tells me it’s the increase in shooting pct…
curtains-
James Jones has his highest career TS% (.670), but he was also very good in Portland a few years ago (.625). Eddie House’s TS% (.535) is better than it was last year (.495), but it is the same as it was a few years ago in NJ (.536) and Boston (.534), and lower than it was during the 2008-09 campaign when he was in Boston (.592). Mario Chalmers’ TS% is the lowest of his career (.495; he was at .548 his rookie year and then at .519 last year).
So of the three players you mentioned as most likely to benefit from open looks, based on what we could have expected based on recent historical shooting percentages, one of them is doing better (Jones), one is doing about the same/slightly worse (House), and one is doing worse. If we’re just comparing them to last year, then two are doing better than expected, but one is doing worse. Not clear to me that the numbers support the assertion that the “extra” open looks are making a huge difference in their games.
The Heat are beating up so mercilessly on teams in their wins that it makes me question the accuracy of their efficiency differential. 14 of their 16 wins are by double digits and 7 of those by more than 20 points. Heck, their 2 single digit wins were by 8 and 9 points. Yet they have 8 losses.
Their ability to crush opponents (especially bad ones) when they’re down is masking their vulnerability in competitive games against good teams.
Makes you question their playoff potential once their double-digit victims are removed from the pool.
^^^ Great comment Sam C.
There is research that says the ability to destroy bad teams means more come playoff time than the ability to barely beat good teams (or barely lose to good teams). So that might mean something (or not).
Perhaps when we think about diminishing returns as being about shot attempts we are wrong.
I agree with you Sam Cohen. :)
Prof Berri,
Are you referring to Neil Paine’s “Guts and Stomps” blog entry?
Lebron has certainly been hitting his shots of late, in the last couple of weeks his fg% has climbed from the Kobelike levels to the current mark of 47%
The past five or six games or so have seen Lebron’s eFG% jump about 3-4%. I would assume he is normalizing now, seeing himself return to his 55% range and should probably end the season with a scoring average of 26 on 63% TS and 57% eFG (aFG). I would not be surprised if his WP rate is actually higher than the past two years by the end of this season.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8368
schedule adjusted calculations have miami ranked number 1
Love those BR rankings
I still think the whole usage/efficiency debate can not be simplified into a one size fits all formula or the generalities that we will see from studying the entire NBA .
It’s about specific skill sets (both degree and range) and the role the player is playing on the team.
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