Monthly Archives: February 2011

Conversation with Links (Mosi Platt and I Talk the NBA)

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The line-up for this week’s podcast was the minimum necessary to actually have a conversation.  For 45 minutes, Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index and I discussed a whole host of NBA issues. 

To listen, follow these links:

http://www.nerdnumbers.com/podcasts/STAT_02_25_2011.mp3

of if you are using the RSS feed:
http://www.nerdnumbers.com/podcasts/stat_feed.xml

Mosi did more than just lead the discussion, he also kept notes and created a series of links related to our conversation.

We then moved on to a discussion of various trades this season.

This ultimately strikes me as a more persuasive use of shooting efficiency stats than do efforts to collapse everything into an overall player evaluation stat. It’s natural for the offense to run through Rose rather than a guy like Korver or Noah, but the fact that both of them have higher TS% numbers than Rose and have taken more shots per game in the past suggests that at the margin he needs to pass a bit more and shoot a bit less. 

As noted, Arturo Galletti wasn’t able to join us. But Arturo did provide a review of all these trades.  And Arturo’s treatment is quite comprehensive.  So if you wondered how all these moves impacted the state of the NBA, check out Arturo’s review.

- DJ

Kevin Durant May Finally Be Playing for a Contender

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“Hi Danny, this is Sam Presti calling”

“Hi Sam.  What can I do for you?”

“Remember a few years ago when I gave you Ray Allen”

“Well, you didn’t give me Ray…

“Hold on, let me finish.  Remember when I gave you Ray Allen.  And you then were able to trade for Kevin Garnett; which then allowed you to win an NBA title.  Remember all that?”

“Not sure I would say you gave me Ray Allen.  But I did appreciate doing business with you.”

“That’s great. How about you do something to show your appreciation?”

“Again Sam, what can I do for you?”

“How about you take the two worst players on my team? And in return give me a big man that can help me contend for a title?”

“If I do this, can we say we’re even?”

“Sure Danny.  Great doing business with you.  And maybe we will see each other again in June.”

Such is the conversation I imagined taking place today between Sam Presti (general manager of the Oklahoma City Thunder) and Danny Ainge (general manager of the Boston Celtics).  I imagined this conversation right after I heard that the Thunder were sending Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic to the Celtics for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson. 

As the following table indicates, Green and Krstic – the starting power forward and center for the Thunder – are the least productive members of the Thunder.

Entering the 2010-11 season, the Thunder had five NBA veterans who posted above average WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] marks last season (average WP48 is 0.100).  This season – after 56 games – these five players (Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha, Serge Ibaka, and James Harden) are again posting above average marks.  But the remainder of the roster this season – just as we see when we look at performances in 2009-10 – is still below average.

Consequently, the Thunder’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) is only 2.59. Such a mark is consistent with a team that would win about 33 of their first 56 games.  So although the Thunder have won 36 games and currently are in first place in the Northwest division (and hold the 4th seed in the West), Oklahoma City is not contending for an NBA title in 2011.

One way this could change, though, is if this team could remove the players who are not really helping.  The Thunder have above average players at point guard (Westbrook), shooting guard (Harden and Sefolosha), and small forward (Durant and Sefolosha).  But when we look for productive big men, we only see Ibaka.  And Ibaka primarily comes off the bench. 

Once again, starting at center and power forward for the Thunder is Krstic and Green.  And those two players have combined to produce -2.4 wins this season.  If each player was replaced by just an average player (i.e. WP48 of 0.100) this season, the Thunder would improve by 8.3 wins across 56 games.  To see this, let’s note that the combination of Krstic and Green have played 2,833 minutes this year.  Had each been average, these two would have combined for 5.9 wins, or once again, 8.3 more wins than the Thunder have this season (since Green and Krstic combine to produce -2.4 wins).

Now if the Thunder won 8.3 more games, the team’s winning percentage would be 0.737.   And that mark matches what we see from the Miami Heat this season.  Yes, if Krstic and Green were average – again, this is a WP48 mark of 0.100 – the Thunder would be on par with the best teams in the NBA.

So how good is Kendrick Perkins?  Across the past three seasons Perkins has posted the following numbers:

  • 2007-08: 0.111 WP48
  • 2008-09: 0.106 WP48
  • 2009-10: 0.126 WP48

And this season, Perkins is at 0.081 WP48 (and he has been hurt).  So I think we can conclude Perkins is an average center.

Acquiring Perkins was not the only move the Thunder made on Thursday.  Oklahoma City also acquired Nazr Mohammed from the Bobcats (for Morris Peterson and D.J. White).

Mohammed has a career WP48 of 0.116, and last year he posted a 0.199 mark for the Bobcats.  This season, at the age of 33, his WP48 mark is only 0.048. But if Perkins and Mohammed can take most of the minutes at center, then Nick Collison and Ibaka can stay out of the middle.  And that move will boost the WP48 mark of each player.

In sum, it looks like the Thunder – thanks to Danny Ainge – have a chance to be much better.  In fact, it is possible that Kevin Durant is suddenly playing for a title contender.

Again, all of this is due to the generosity of Danny Ainge.  Or was it just payback for Ray Allen?

Then again, maybe Ainge didn’t do this to help out the Thunder.  The problem Jeff Green had in Oklahoma City was that he was probably being played out of position.  Green is 6-9 and weighs 235 pounds.  But although he looks like a big man, relative to an average power forward, Green is below average with respect to rebounds and shooting efficiency. 

The Celtics, though, don’t need Green to play power forward.  Boston already has Kevin Garnett and Glenn Davis at power forward.  And Krstic and Shaquille O’Neal can play center.  That means Green can spend most of his time at small forward.  Green is still below average at small forward, but as a back-up to Paul Pierce, he doesn’t hurt as much.

So this move probably didn’t help the Celtics much.  After all, Krstic is still not a very good center (but not much worse than Semih Erdan who the team shipped out today).  But this move probably doesn’t hurt as much as one might think if they didn’t consider where Green will probably play in Boston.

How this move impacts the Celtics, though, isn’t the big story (at least, I don’t think so).  If Perkins can be healthy (he his hurt now) and Mohammed can still play, the Thunder have suddenly acquired some players in the middle who won’t hurt them when they take the court.  Given the talents of Durant, Westbrook, Sefolosha, Ibaka, and Harden, the Thunder might finally be contenders in the West.  And that means, Danny and Sam might be meeting again in June.

- DJ

P.S. Of course, Miami, Chicago, San Antonio, and the LA Lakers might have something to say about this potential meeting. 

Deron Williams, Devin Harris, and the Best Point Guard in the NBA

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Here is Billy King – the Nets general manager – commenting on the Nets acquisition of Deron Williams:“I feel Deron Williams is the best point guard in the NBA. And when you want to try to win you need a point guard and a center, and I think we have two of the best.”

Okay, Brook Lopez is not really a great center. Last December I wondered why Lopez was not part of all the packages the Nets put together in an effort to acquire Carmelo Anthony.  And now his current WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] is -0.068. 

This short post, though, isn’t about rehashing the problems with Lopez.  I want to talk briefly about the idea that Deron Williams is the best point guard in the game.

The following table compares Deron Williams to Devin Harris and Chris Paul. 

Williams is replacing Harris in New Jersey.  And as one can see, Williams offers more than Harris.  The big difference is that Williams is a much more efficient scorer.  Consequently, Williams offers – across 3,000 minutes – about six more wins than Harris.

Currently the Nets are on pace to win about 24 games, and that puts the Nets firmly in the lottery.  With Williams, the Nets would be on pace to win about 30 games.  That is enough to… okay, Nets are still a lottery team.  And since the Nets had to give up Derrick Favors to make this happen, fans of the Nets should still think there team has improved. But the team hasn’t improved very much.

Now what if the Nets actually acquired the best point guard?  Yes, that would be Chris Paul.  CP3 doesn’t just shoot efficiently (like Williams).  Paul also rebounds, grabs steals, and avoids turnovers.  Consequently, Paul produces many more wins.

In fact, it appears the difference between Paul and Williams is bigger than the difference between Williams and Harris.  In other words, it appears the difference between Williams and the point guard the Nets had is smaller than the difference between Williams and the actual best point guard in the NBA.

And all that means that the assessment of Billy King appears to be a little bit off.  But that doesn’t mean the Nets aren’t a bit better today.  And that means the Nets lottery pick, which is going to Utah this year, might not be as good as it looked yesterday (but I still think it could be pretty good).

Of course just getting a lottery pick doesn’t guarantee that you will get a productive player.  But the Jazz have a good chance of missing the playoffs now, so they might be getting two lottery picks (and yes, that isn’t a guarantee of anything either).

- DJ

P.S.  My hope is to post more on the two big trades this week from the perspective of the Jazz and Nuggets.  Look for these posts in the next few days.

More Melo Musings

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Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal asks: Does Adding Anthony Mean Wins?

His answer begins with the following observation:

The megadeal that sent Carmelo Anthony to the Knicks has in many ways become a battle between the old and new schools of understanding basketball.

On one side, some so-called experts—generally analysts in the media—are championing the new-look Knicks as legitimate title contenders. Meanwhile, proponents of statistical analysis continue to rank Anthony among the NBA’s most overrated players.

Jared’s story goes on to note (according to some economist at Southern Utah University), that the acquisition of Anthony does improve the Knicks.  But not as much as some people might think.

In the article it is noted that I think the Knicks could be a 50-win team with this trade.  Forecasting is of course difficult.  Especially about the future.  But here is a quick summary of my thinking on this move.  Essentially I see the trade as having three key components:

  • Carmelo Anthony replaces Wilson Chandler
  • Chauncey Billups replaces Raymond Felton
  • Someone (probably Ronny Turiaf) takes the minutes of Timofey Mosgov

The following table summarizes how the Knicks would look if these three moves had been made at the start of the season.

Anthony has posted a 0.168 WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] at small forward this year.  Chandler – if he is a small forward – has a 0.110 WP48 at this position.  So giving Chandler’s 1,759 minutes to Anthony improves the Knicks – after 54 games – by 2.1 wins. 

This is a rather modest improvement.  But this is not all the Knicks have done. 

  • Chauncey Billups has posted a 0.158 WP48 at point guard.  Raymond Felton’s WP48 has been 0.129.  Giving Billups the 2,074 minutes Felton has played (and at the advanced age of Billups, that might be a stretch), results in 1.2 additional wins.
  • Finally, for some reason the Nuggets insisted on acquiring Timofey Mozgov.  If Mozgov’s 458 minutes could have been played by Ronny Turiaf, the Knicks would have improved this year by 1.5 wins. This is because Mozgov’s WP48 is -0.104 (while Turiaf –at center – has a 0.049 mark).

If we put it all together, these three moves improve the Knicks – after 54 games – by 4.8 wins.  Across 82 games, that is a 7.3 game improvement.  And since the Knicks Wins Produced – as detailed yesterday—stands at 27.8 wins (or 42.1 over an 82 games season), these three moves suggest the Knicks are quite close to 50 wins.

Once again, it is not just Anthony that gets the team this far.  But he does help (a little bit).

One should note that I am ignoring in this analysis the loss of Danilo Gallinari, as well as the addition of Shelden Williams, Corey Brewer, and Anthony Carter.  But I ran the numbers (and played with the minutes of the players as well) with all these players and still came out around 50 wins.

Of course, this projection assumes per-minute performance doesn’t change (which could happen if someone gets hurt) and that I can guess how many minutes each player plays (and I probably can’t).  I am also ignoring schedule strength, which over 28 games (that is all that is left) probably is important.

Ignoring all that stuff, though, and I think we can conclude (sort of), that the Knicks are a little bit better off.  But by no means is this team on par with Miami, Boston, Chicago, or Orlando (although quirky stuff can happen in a seven game series).

Jared was not the only writer I spoke with on Tuesday.  Sam Mamudi of MarketWatch also called.   Sam was less interested in how Melo would impact the Knicks on the court (although that was part of our conversation) and more interested in how Melo would change the Knicks performance as a business.

Sam’s story — Carmelo Anthony to N.Y.: Business as usual? Fans hope for playoff success, but on- and off-court doubts remain – casts doubt on the notion that Melo will help the Knicks’ bottom line.   The story touches upon all the financial aspects of the move (from ticket sales, to television revenue, to merchandise sales).  And from all these angles it doesn’t look like the trade for Anthony will help the Knicks much financially.

One argument I would make, though, is that the Knicks are probably not interested in winning at the bottom line.  As hard as it may be for people to believe, the Knicks are really trying to win on the court.  Yes, all the moves Isiah Thomas made were really designed to bring a title to New York.  And that is what the acquisition of Melo is also about.  Unfortunately, I think fans of the Knicks are ultimately going to be disappointed by this move. 

Let me close by noting three more stories related to this move. 

  • Michael Salfino – of the Wall Street Journal – reminds people of New York that they have seen this story before.  No, Michael isn’t talking about Isiah.  Michael’s story reminds people of the Knicks acquisition of Bob McAdoo (way back in the 1970s).   Yes, the Knicks have a history of trying to win with scorers (and I guess they will keep trying this strategy until it works).
  • Dre Alvarez and I are not the only WoW Network people to comment on this trade.  Ty Willihnganz has also commented on this move.  And as one can see, Ty also thinks the Knicks are improved with this move (but again, the Knicks are still not a title contender).
  • And finally, Chad Ford – of ESPN.com – looks at the Knicks desire to add a third “star” to their roster.  Chad’s analysis of the Knicks salary cap position suggests adding another maximum player will be difficult.  Apparently people thought Chad’s story meant he was “hating on the Knicks” (or something like that ).  At least, that is something Chad tweeted about yesterday.  It is odd how a simple analysis of some numbers can lead people to think you are just “hating on their team or favorite player”.

One last note… I am currently scheduled to be on Bloomberg Radio – with Kathleen Hays – tomorrow at 2:30pm EST.  Kathleen and I will be discussing Carmelo and the Knicks.  You can tune in if you live in New York.  Or if not, you can listen on-line. 

- DJ

P.S. And as I worked on getting this story posted, Deron Williams was traded to the Nets.  Hopefully I can say something about this soon.

Quick Thoughts on the Melo Trade

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Carmelo Anthony is going to the Knicks.  Finally.  Here are the details (as reported by ESPN.com).

The New York Knicks Receive:

  • Carmelo Anthony
  • Chauncey Billups
  • Shelden Williams
  • Anthony Carter
  • Renaldo Balkman
  • Corey Brewer

The Denver Nuggets Receive:

  • Raymond Felton
  • Wilson Chandler
  • Danilo Gallinari
  • Timofey Mozgov
  • First Round Pick in 2014 (plus other picks, cash, and maybe a toaster oven)

The Minnesota Timberwolves Receive

  • Anthony Randolph
  • Eddy Curry

And here are some quick thoughts on this trade (assuming it is true):

Let’s start with where the Nuggets and Knicks are at the All-Star break.

The Nuggets have a record of 32-25 with an efficiency differential of 2.46.  Such a differential is consistent with a team that would win about 33 of their first 57 games and about 47 games across an 82 game season.

When we move to Wins Produced – reported below — we see that this team has been led by Nene Hilario, Arron Afflalo, and Chauncey Billups.  Carmelo Anthony – for all his “star” power – was only the fourth most productive player on the team.  And his performance – which is somewhat above average (average WP48 or Wins Produced per 48 minutes is 0.100) – is actually an improvement over what we saw last year.  In sum, Carmelo Anthony is not as productive as his reputation suggests (a point made many times in the past).

Now let’s turn to the Knicks.  After 54 games the Knicks have a record of 28-26. The team’s efficiency differential of 0.45 is consistent with a team that would win about 28 of their first 54 games, or about 42 games across an entire season. 

When we turn to Wins Produced – reported below – we see that the most productive player on this team is Landry Fields (a point made before in this forum).  In fact, without the addition of Fields, the Knicks would probably be headed for another trip to the NBA lottery.  This is because the veteran players on the Knicks are essentially offering what they did last year.  Yes, Wilson Chandler has done more and Amare Stoudemire – despite all the hype – is actually offering a bit less.  But the Knicks – as a team – are about as good as what would expect; assuming we all expected Fields to be amazing (which, of course, we didn’t actually expect).

Now that we see where each team is at, here are some quick observations about the Knicks:

  • Fans of the Knicks should be happy tonight.  Not because the team acquired Melo.  No, they should be happy that the price tag didn’t include Fields.
  • That being said, should the Knicks fans expect this team to become a title contender?  Although members of the media might think so, Melo is simply not that productive.  Yes, he can play very well over short periods of time (he was doing very well early in the season).  But as time progresses, Melo seems to regress to the somewhat above average performer we have always seen.  In other words, the Knicks have not acquired LeBron James tonight.  What they have acquired is a player who is just a little bit more productive than Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari.  As for the other parts in the trade…
  • Chauncey Billups can offer more than Raymond Felton.  But Billups is old. 
  • Corey Brewer is still young.  Well, he is 24 (and players tend to peak around their mid-20s).  And at this point, Brewer’s WP48 – if he is a shooting guard – is -0.004.  If he is a small forward, his mark is -0.056. And that is a bit less than he offered last year.  So if Brewer plays, he probably doesn’t help.
  • Timofey Mozgov – who the Nuggets apparently coveted – is even less productive than Brewer (as hard as that is to believe).  So losing Mozgov definitely helps the Knicks.
  • And of course, if Balkman ever plays… well, he was very productive the last time he was in New York.

What about the Nuggets? Again, some quick thoughts…

  • Denver really should have insisted on Landry Fields. 
  • Replacing Melo with Chandler and/or Gallinari only would cost the Nuggets about two wins this season.  So yes, this is a small step back.  But it appears rather small. 
  • Felton offers less than Billups, but again…. Billups is old (34 years old).  Felton gives the Nuggets a player who is a bit less productive, but eight years younger.
  • Who is going to play small forward for this team?  The team now has Chandler, Gallinari, and Gary Forbes.  Plus, J.R. Smith and/or Aaron Afflalo appear to have swung to the small forward spot this year.  Not real clear how those minutes get allocated.
  • The Nuggets now have three above average big men (Nene Hilario, Chris Andersen, and Kenyon Martin) and three big men who produce in the negative range (Al Harrington, Melvin Ely, and Mozgov).  Interesting to see how those minutes get allocated.

In sum, it is not clear who is going to play for Denver.  It is possible to come up with a line-up where this trade doesn’t really hurt Denver that much. But it is possible for this trade to really hurt, especially if Mozgov – the player they supposedly insisted upon – actually plays.

Okay, those were some quick thoughts. 

Oops, forgot to mention Minnesota. 

  • It was a good move to get rid of Brewer. 
  • It would be interesting to see if Eddy Curry can play at all anymore.  Yes, Curry is not really that productive.  But does he offer less than Darko Milicic? 

Okay, not sure on that one.  It would be fun to find out (well, maybe fun isn’t the right word).

Update: Dre Alvarez also wrote about this trade on Monday night.  His comment goes beyond what I wrote and reviews the long-run implications of the move.

- DJ