The line-up for this week’s podcast was the minimum necessary to actually have a conversation. For 45 minutes, Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index and I discussed a whole host of NBA issues.
To listen, follow these links:
http://www.nerdnumbers.com/podcasts/STAT_02_25_2011.mp3
of if you are using the RSS feed:
http://www.nerdnumbers.com/podcasts/stat_feed.xml
Mosi did more than just lead the discussion, he also kept notes and created a series of links related to our conversation.
- Mosi got the podcast started by asking about my favorite trades in NBA history. This led to a discussion of the Pistons trade of Adrian Dantley for Mark Aguirre (which didn’t really matter as much as we all thought at the time) and also the Pistons trading Phil Hubbard, Paul Mokeski plus 1st and 2nd rd picks for Bill Laimbeer in 1982 (and the trade for Bob McAdoo, which really didn’t work out). Of course, Arturo Galletti (who wasn’t able to join us because he had real work to do) probably appreciated that McAdoo trade, since the Celtics turned the Pistons’ draft picks into Kevin McHale & Robert Parish.
- From historical trades we moved on to a discussion of working in the NBA. I have done some paid consulting for the NBA, but in general I tend to talk my way out of these jobs. Or as Mosi put it… my personality doesn’t mesh with NBA front offices (i.e. I really like to say what I think J
We then moved on to a discussion of various trades this season.
- First trade breakdown - Celtics trade Perkins to Thunder, but don’t weaken their position in the Eastern Conference. The Thunder, though, appear to be much better.
- The conversation then took a detour from trades to a discussion of Derrick Rose (which seemed relevant after the Heat-Bulls game). This discussion built on my latest column for the Huffington Post (which I meant to comment on in more detail in this forum before all these trades happened). Matthew Yglesis had this to say about this column:
This ultimately strikes me as a more persuasive use of shooting efficiency stats than do efforts to collapse everything into an overall player evaluation stat. It’s natural for the offense to run through Rose rather than a guy like Korver or Noah, but the fact that both of them have higher TS% numbers than Rose and have taken more shots per game in the past suggests that at the margin he needs to pass a bit more and shoot a bit less.
- By the way, the Rose comment is related to the discussion of usage. And Ty Willihnganz – in a conversation on Carmelo Anthony – has a great post on this topic.
- More on Derrick Rose… Mosi noted that he was outplayed by Heat PG Mario Chalmers and, despite what Kenny Smith says, he doesn’t take any more shots in the paint than the average NBA player - http://hoopdata.com/shotstatsaspx. And because it’s a Wins Produced podcast, the Heat-Bulls game came down to rebounding and there was no stopping Omer Asik on the boards.
- The podcast gets back on topic & and I noted that I don’t expect the Thunder to catch the Spurs (so San Antonio fans can relax), but I do think they could move up from being the 5th best team in the West and finish with the third-best efficiency differential behind the Spurs & Lakers (although they may still be the 4th seed, since seeding is based on won-loss record).
- Second trade breakdown - Bobcats’ Wallace goes to Trail Blazers. Without running the numbers, neither Mosi nor I think Gerald Wallace makes the Blazers a contender (but upon further review… I might amend this statement sometime this week).
- The Magic didn’t make a trade at the deadline, but I think they’re still the 4th-best team in the East after their earlier trades - not because of the players they got but because Dwight Howard has been playing better since then (as the link indicates, I got this from Ty’s writing on the subject).
- Kendrick Perkins’ & Nazr Mohammed’s health are caveats for the Thunder trade, but even if they play hurt they’re better than Cole Aldrich (who was projected to be a great player from the 2010 draft but predictions are hard – ask Jeremy Britton)
- Third trade breakdown - Warriors, Nets make trade for Murphy. Troy Murphy’s gotten some love from the WoW Network, but we don’t think he’s going to swing the title in the East this season.
- Fourth trade breakdown - Deron Williams goes to New Jersey. I say they’re still going to be a lottery team with Deron Williams until they realize that Lopez shouldn’t be untouchable. Apparently, adjusted +/- indicates that Lopez should’ve had some trade value this season as the best player on the Nets with a +9.5 rating (and I believe we spent some time briefly discussing APM). Mosi thinks Lopez was ruined by all the losing.
- Fifth trade breakdown - Hawks ship Bibby to Wizards for Hinrich. John Wall (a WoW favorite) is at-risk of being ruined by all the losing in Washington and this trade doesn’t mitigate that risk.
- Lottery picks may not be the best thing to trade for – ask the Utah Jazz. Or just read Arturo‘s Silly Stats.
- Because I am a Pistons fan, the podcasted ended with a discussion of players revolting against their head coach in Detroit after NOT being traded. As I have said in the past, the problem isn’t John Kuester. The problem is that the expectations were too high. And I also note that while Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva are below average today, they could have each dominated if they played with George Mikan in 1948.
As noted, Arturo Galletti wasn’t able to join us. But Arturo did provide a review of all these trades. And Arturo’s treatment is quite comprehensive. So if you wondered how all these moves impacted the state of the NBA, check out Arturo’s review.
- DJ
I for one have listened to every episode. I like the show a lot.
I second the motion. I enjoy them.
I have a couple of students who say they listen as well. So our audience is at least four people. Good enough for me :)
That Boston trade is looking riskier by the minute.
Al Jefferson went off on them for 28 points tonight. They won anyway, but it looked fairly clear that without Perkins or Shaq, they don’t have same quality defense in the middle. If Shaq doesn’t get and stay healthy, the Celtics could find a way to lose in the second round.
Even if they kept Perk he wouldn’t be playing for quite some time.
As for the podcast it was fun, although you used a lot of straw when you characterized critics as thinking rebounding is something that just happens. Also in all these casts I notice someone is always typing furiously on their keyboard, what’s up with that?
stephanieg,
I don’t hear many people doing it explicitly, but a lot of people implicitly ignore rebounding. Ever hear about how a great defender provides “intangibles” or “hustle” or “contributions that don’t show up on the stat sheet”? A lot of times it’s rebounding they’re discounting.
When people consider Amare and all-star candidate or Brook Lopez a future all-star or think that Troy Murphy is only good as a 3-pt shooter, they’re ignoring rebounding.
Few people go out of their way to argue that “rebounding just happens” they same way that few people go out of their way to argue that “whole grain bread is good for you”. It’s just more or less a given to most people.
“Even if they kept Perk he wouldn’t be playing for quite some time. ”
That’s true, but I don’t think that was part of the thought process and they are still going to be in a suspect position in the playoffs unless Shaq stays healthy.
Thoughts on Corey Brewer? Henry Abbott wrote a piece about him.
Also, any thoughts on the Sixers resurgence?
“As for the podcast it was fun, although you used a lot of straw when you characterized critics as thinking rebounding is something that just happens. ”
I realize that rebounding has been discussed to death and don’t want to start a new debate, but I have a question/suggestion.
If my memory is accurate, adjusting the value of defensive rebounds from 1 to .7 didn’t change the relative ranking of the players very much and also didn’t reduce the model’s ability to predict the total number of wins for a team.
If that’s the case why not just do it?
It would deflect some of the criticism from people that have done studies that suggest diminishing returns for rebounds is larger than thought here and that WOW overvalues rebounds.
Silence observers of the game that say that x% of the time there are 2-3 defenders under the basket each of which could easily have gotten the rebound.
Shift the relative values of players slightly to be more in line with intuitive and experience based views on the value of the players (and therefore be more likely to be accepted because the controversial cases would be less extreme)
About the only downside to the change would be actually admitting it, but even there I don’t much of a downside other than from a few competitive die hards that criticize the model anyway.
stephanieg:
The typing comes from using the laptop mic to record the podcasts. It’s embedded near the keyboard so it picks up all typing.