Mike Bibby’s career in Washington is only going to last two games. And now he is headed to the Miami Heat. Judging by the comments from the Heat, the addition of Bibby is being met with a fair amount of optimism.
“…the Heat’s players were already in a welcoming mood for Bibby, who officially clears waivers at 6 p.m. ET Wednesday. Heat forward LeBron James said he was on the verge of becoming teammates with Bibby in Cleveland several years ago before the veteran guard was traded from Sacramento to Atlanta.
This time James won’t miss out on sharing a perimeter role with Bibby.
“A few years ago, we tried — we had an opportunity to get him in Cleveland,” James said after Tuesday’s 2½-hour team film study and practice session. “It didn’t work out, when he was getting traded away from Sacramento and went to Atlanta. So I’ve had some conversations with him and said, ‘It would be good to have you as our point guard.’ It’s good that it’s come full circle.”
“I think it’s a big thing for us,” said Heat guard Eddie House, Bibby’s brother-in-law. “He’s going to do a lot of things that can help LeBron, Dwyane and everyone else around here.”
Is Bibby, though, really going to help that much?
To answer this question, let’s look at what Bibby did for the Atlanta Hawks this season.
After 60 games the Atlanta Hawks have won 36 games. The team, though, has only out-scored their opponents by 54 points this season. So the team’s efficiency differential is only 0.97; and that means the team’s Wins Produced is only 31.6.
When we look at the Hawks roster – reported in the table below – we can see that Al Horford, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, and Marvin Williams have produced 28.8 of these wins. As for Bibby, his WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] in Atlanta was only 0.078 (average WP48 is 0.100). And his Wins Produced was only 2.7, which tells us that Bibby didn’t play a big role in Atlanta’s success this season.
Bibby not helping the Hawks much, though, isn’t the question. Can Bibby help the Heat? To answer this question let’s first compare Bibby to the two point guards the Heat have employed this year. The following table compares the career numbers– prior to this season — of Bibby, Mario Chalmers and Carlos Arroyo (Arroyo was cut to make this move happen).
Prior to the 2010-11 season, Bibby had played for 11 years and produced 66.5 wins. When we consider WP48 we see a career mark of 0.109, which is slightly above average. But again, he has been slightly below average this year. And the same is true in four of the past five seasons. Of course Bibby is now 31 years old. So returning to the above average player seen in the past seems unlikely (although possible).
Turning to the players Bibby is replacing… both Chalmers and Arroyo has also posted career WP48 marks that are somewhat below average. And when we turn to this season – detailed below – we once again see somewhat below average marks.
This season Chalmers has posted a 0.078 mark. With this move, one would assume Chalmers goes to the bench and the Heat will add Bibby – and his 0.078 WP48 – to the starting line-up. So Bibby doesn’t appear to be a big upgrade over Chalmers.
Meanwhile, Chalmers takes on the role of Arroyo, who only posted a 0.021 WP48 mark this year. Yes, Chalmers has done more than Arroyo. But across the 995 minutes Arroyo has played this year, moving from a 0.021 WP48 to a 0.078 mark would only add about 1.2 wins for the Heat.
To make this move happen, Bibby accepted a buyout that will cost him $6.2 million. He did this so that he can win a title. And that may actually happen. But I don’t think – given the numbers posted by Bibby, Chalmers, and Arroyo – that Bibby is really going to improve the Heat. So if the Heat do win a title, this move is not going to be the reason why that happens.
Let me close by asking a related question: How much money have the Heat players given up to win a title? The Super Friends have all come with a discount. And I think Mike Miller took less to joint the Heat. And now Bibby is doing the same. One would think that people who want athletes to focus on wins — and not money – would love this team. But I sense that is not the case. LeBron and company have actually just generated a great deal of hate. Which leads me to ask… what do these sports fans want?
- DJ
Wade and James are averaging almost 7 to’s/game. That number should drop. Bibby won’t bring much else. On a side note, has Landry Fields’ productivity dropped since the Knicks trade?
Dave,
Interesting point on the hate. Wade and LeBron had to leave money on the table regardless due to the cap. The players that really “cheated” to make this team good were Miller and Haslem. Oddly the hate goes the wrong way. Miller and Haslem are considered team players and LeBron is an evil villain.
Let’s just be honest a lot of it is jealously. Many people think their team can easily get a Miller or Haslem at a similar price (not true) but everyone knows even getting a LeBron is next to impossible. I should just thank the Heat for losing the NYK so I have something to mock Mosi w/ while the Heat are in the finals.
what do these sports fans want?
Dre’s right, IMHO, in that it’s jealousy. All of us sports fans want our own teams to get superstars.
I do think there are two other layers.
1) The way LBJ left Cleveland out to dry on national TV.
2) The suspicion that this was all planned during the Olympics, and “The Decision” and everything else was just hollow posturing.
Personally, I only have an issue with #1. I think LBJ disgraced himself, the Cavs, and the city of Cleveland. He should have held a simple press conference to announce his decision, which he should have disclosed to Gilbert in advance. That showed a great deal of arrogance and immaturity, IMHO.
Sport fans want their own team to win. Any other team that could deter that will be disliked. I knew sports had some… general populist support? But I’m not sure it is about how much a player earns, but instead how workers can come home from their jobs to see their team win, similar to a cold one after a hard day’s work.
I submit that Bibby’s value is very different to an extreme top-heavy team like the Heat as opposed to a very balanced team like the Hawks.
The Heat’s supporting cast figure to see way more open perimeter shots than they would see on a balanced team that defenses play “straight-up.”
Te key figure to me is Bibby’s 3PFG% which is .379 career and has actually improved slightly with age. The Heat desperately need reliable shooters who can knock down shots or rotate the ball to the open man when defenses scramble to recover from helping on one of the big 3. The Jordan-Pippen Bulls kind of figured this out (Hodges/Paxson/Armstrong/Kerr/Harper/Buechler).
Hi Professor, I would love to get your take on this article:
http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/nba-can-be-saved-with-radical-plan-030111
Or, alternatively, I would love to hear what you would advise the players, owners, and fans if asked to comment on the CBA negotiations. Does the NBA need “saving”? Even if not, could it be improved? If so, how would you go about doing that?
I think many fans quietly admire the Heat players that were willing to take less money so the BIG 3 could play together (including the 3 of them). If they were more interested in money, they would be the BIG 2 instead.
I think the reason many people hate them is because of the way they handled themselves, jealously, and because a lot of people like to root for the underdog and they are seen as a stacked deck.
Personally, Melo has single- handedly reduced my hostility towards the Heat and I’m a Knicks fan.
Look at the difference.
Melo was so focused on getting an extension under the old CBA and going to NY so he could maximize his own basketball earnings AND play in the most lucrative market (he and his wide have already supposedly signed on for a reality show), he was willing to force the Knicks to gut the team and take away all the youthful upside in a competitive process with the Nets (who he had no intention of signing with) than to simply sign with Denver again to get the money or become a FA and maximize his chances of winning and risk some salary but still get the most lucrative market.
He was entirely self centered.
You could argue that he did Denver a favor by making it pretty clear he was leaving so they could get something out of the deal (as opposed to James who supposedly didn’t even communicate with the Cavs ownership and left them shocked and angry when he chose to leave), but he clearly put the money ahead of winning.
For the average American (and even well above average American) that’s very understandable, but after the first 10-20 million you would think the value of each incremental dollar loses meaning and the winning would mean more. Not so for Melo.
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IMO Bibby will not help the team much unless he can consistantly knock down the 3-ball. Many have said that the Heat need a PG in the clutch, but even though Bibby can do this it seems that in clutch moments teams go to the “old reliable” and for the Heat that’s ISO for LBJ/Wade. You may say this has not been reliable, but it’s what LBJ and Wade are used to! Also, Bibby is a liability against ellite PG’s and the Heat will eventually have to through 2 or 3 great PG’s!
Finally, as for the dislike for the Heat and it’s Big 3, I feel it all comes from how LBJ left his home town team in a lurch all for his edification! I also feel that many do not like players forming teams as opposed to teams forming teams! If this becomes the norm then the NBA devolves into a huge pick-up game. Have you ever been to a large park with multiple courts were there are just multiple pick-up games? Usually you have 1 court that is hte main attraction and all the other courts are for the scrubs. And eventually a team is created that is superior to the rest and they run the “main” court all day! This is not what people want the NBA to become.
has fields performance suffered since the antohny trade?
C’mon Dave, people don’t like Lebron because he went out of his way to draw the most attention to himself while completely screwing his semi-hometown team. That completely overshadows the average sports fan’s desire to see pro athletes take a small amount less in order to win/stay with their hometown team.
Lebron seems like a nice enough guy aside from the egotrip he had at Cleveland’s expense.
I heard that the lack of a state income tax in the state of Florida pretty much cancelled out the “taking less money argument.” So, maybe for Bibby, Miller and Haslem it had a bigger impact if they signed for far fewer dollars, but in the case of the Super Friends the impact was negligible.
1. LOL at the notion of LBJ drawing attention to himself. As if he could generate much more interest than already existed. Imagine what the press conference would have been like instead of The Decision. Where would they have this press conference, at LandShark Stadium, while he sits through 100s of questions? It would have been like Press Day at the SuperBowl without the joy.
2. Mario Chalmers 14.8%usg 105 ortg
Mike Bibby 14.7%usg 111 ortg
Mike Bibby is a huge upgrade over Chalmers offensively which is where guards have the biggest impact on their teams. The Heat didn’t have a point guard who was worth a damn. I suspect his effect on the team won’t show up in his wins produced. Wade and James should see in increase in their fg% rebounds and assists. Bibby is going to allow them to be better where they already excel.
I will now hope that Troy Murphy is hurt.
First let me put this straight, I’m a HEAT fan and always been and I do not understand the HATE stuff toward LBJ for leaving CLE the way he did, most of you forget how teams in the league get rid of players without any sympathy or appreciation about what they have done to bring success to the team that “suddenly” pushed them out just because they don’t want to pay them or just don’t believe in them anymore, this happen each year and I haven’t heard or read complain from fans or the media…
LBJ did not do anything wrong, we have the right to say “I didn’t like the way he did it ” or “he is too arrogant” but at the end of the day he made the choice he wanted to make like most teams in the league trade players the want to trade….
And I agree with DB, nobody highlighted the fact that these 3 guys (specially WADE) left a lot of money on the table to help the HEAT get better players and give the team more flexibility on the market, when I looked at MELO who the first thing he did on his first day in NY was to sign a full extension ($65 millions) instead to take less money, I wonder if his motivation for the trade was about winning (titles) or winning (more money…).
Finally, I agree (again) with DB that Bibby isn’t a huge upgrade over Chalmers, but I believe the difference will be in his experience in late game and how to handle it when the score is really close, Bibby played deep in plays-off before with the Kings and this is what the HEAT value a lot, experience.
My guess is that any teams in the league will have a huge task ahead to beat the Heat in 4 games, so far other than the Celtics and the Spurs I don’t see any teams been comfortable to face these guys 7 games in a row.
Thanks from England.
Seems like the Denver Nuggets are having a terribly difficult time scoring now that the Melo the superstar is gone. Denver only scored 120 points on 60% shooting without arguably their 2nd or 3rd best offensive weapon in Gallinari (certainly a highly efficient scorer). Yep, passing and a balanced attack simply can’t overcome the ability of one player to make tough shots out of a double team, spin like a top and finish, chuck up bad 3s and very long 2s with a lot of time on the clock etc…
Well said italian stallion
Why Carmelo is not an efficient player:
He shoots a spinning, 360 Jump shot off balance from 13 feet. How is THAT a good shot? Even if he hits it, surely that is a lower percentage shot than Billups wide open at the three point line (which he is if Melo sees him).
This is the sort of play that people forget, but that stats remember – low percentage shots taken by volume scorers for no justifiable reason. Anyone who watches the game realises that Melo takes a few too many of these – and as Melo takes ~20 shots a game, one shot like this per game has a massive impact on his fg%.
Who would have guessed that a team could get rid of its least effective regular who also happened to make the final decision a disproportional amount of time could get better? good luck nyk