The following comes from Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index

Before Game 5 against the Philadelphia 76ers, LeBron James said it was time for the Miami Heat to “finish their breakfast” and advance to the next round of the playoffs. Well, they did just that with a 97-91 win in Miami.

Let’s recap Game 5 as well as the series’ Most Valuable Player, Best Reserve, Best Coach and all of the wins produced stats.

This article will use Win Score and Estimated Wins Produced — statistical models often noted at the Wages of Wins Journal — to measure how much a player’s box score statistics contributed to their team’s efficiency differential and wins. An average player produces an estimated 0.100 wins per 48 minutes (Est.WP48), a star player produces 0.200+ Est.WP48 and a superstar produces 0.300+ Est.WP48. More information on these stats can be found at the following links:

• Simple Models of Player Performance
• Wins Produced vs. Win Score
• What Wins Produced Says and What It Does Not Say
• Introducing PAWSmin — and a Defense of Box Score Statistics

Game 5 Statistical Notes:

This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced for Game 5 from the box score stats.

• The most productive Heat player was Dwyane Wade, with an estimated 0.307 wins produced (from 26 points on 25 shots with six free throws, 11 rebounds and seven assists). It was his second-best game of the series.
• The Tale of Two Cities article reported Chris Bosh’s splits at home and on the road after the first four games of this series (he was dominant at home and bad on the road). In Game 5 at the AAA, he was the second most productive Heat player with an estimated 0.249 wins produced from 22 points on 16 shots with 10 free throws, 11 rebounds and one steal. It was his second-best game of the series.
• Mario Chalmers was the third-leading scorer and third most productive Heat player with an estimated 0.196 wins produced (0.306 est.WP48) from 20 points on 14 shots, two rebounds, two assists and zero turnovers. It was his best game of the series and seventh-best game of the season (see this spreadsheet for Chalmers’ top 10 games). The Heat are 10-3 when Chalmers produced more than 0.300 est.WP48 this season (see this spreadsheet for Chalmers’ +0.300 games).
• The Heat played their best first quarter of the series with an estimated 0.260 wins produced. They averaged an estimated -0.11 wins produced in the first quarters of Games 1-4.
• Unfortunately, a good first quarter meant the Heat couldn’t put together a good second quarter as they basically battled the 76ers to a draw (with each team producing an estimated 0.007 wins).
• This article reported the struggles of Dwyane Wade in the first quarter and LeBron James in the fourth quarter and asked which was more important for the Heat’s success – better starts for Wade or better finishes for LeBron. In Game 5, Wade produced 0.382 est. WP48 minutes in the first quarter and LeBron produced 0.413 est. WP48 minutes in the fourth quarter.
• LeBron produced 0.511 est.WP48 in the second half [after a terrible first half when he produced -0.253 est.WP48].
• Lou Williams went from being the hero of Game 4 to the least productive Sixers player in Game 5; with an estimated -0.284 wins produced (from four points on eight shots with one free throw, two turnovers and one foul).
• Elton Brand was the most productive Sixers player with an estimated 0.259 wins produced (from 22 points on 17 shots with two free throws, six rebounds and two assists). It was his second-best game of the series.
• Andre Iguodala was the least productive Sixers player after the first four games, but he came with it in the elimination game. He was the second-most productive Sixer with an estimated 0.229 wins produced (from 22 points on 14 shots with four free throws, 10 rebounds and four assists).

Series Awards:

• Most Valuable Player – The most productive Heat player in the series was LeBron, with an estimated 1.2 wins produced and 0.276 est.WP48. He was above average in every category except shooting efficiency and steals.
• Sixth Man – James Jones was the most productive Heat reserve with an estimated 0.3 wins produced and 0.136 est.WP48. He was above average in shooting efficiency and turnovers and below average in every other category at small forward, but he played three different positions during the series (SG, SF and PF).
• Best Coach – Erik Spoelstra. For all the talk about Sixers head coach Doug Collins out-coaching Spoelstra, Collins only gave 53 percent of the available minutes to the most productive Sixers while Spoelstra gave 90 percent of the available minutes to the most productive Heat players.

Series Statistical Notes:

This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced by the Heat from the box score stats for the series.

• The Heat scored an average of 107 points per 100 possessions and allowed 98 points per 100 possessions for an efficiency differential of +9. According to nbastuffer.com, that’s the second-best efficiency differential in the playoffs behind the Boston Celtics’ +9.3.
• The Three Kings provided 84 percent of the Heat’s production in the series.
• Wade was the second-most productive player with an estimated 1.0 wins produced and 0.254 est.WP48. He was above average in every category except shooting efficiency and turnovers.
• Bosh was the third-most productive player with an estimated 0.8 wins produced and 0.196 est.WP48. He was above average in every category except shot attempts, turnovers and assists.
• The least productive Heat player in the series was Mike Bibby, with an estimated -0.3 wins produced and -0.124 est.WP48. Bibby was below average in every category except rebounds, blocks and fouls. He had a terrible series and deserved to be benched in the second half of Game 5.
• Unlike Bibby, Zydrunas Ilgauskas was very productive in the series with an estimated 0.5 wins produced and 0.338 est.WP48. Big Z’s offensive production and Joel Anthony’s defense helped the Heat outplay the Sixers in the middle; with 0.125 est.WP48 from Miami’s centers compared to 0.075 est.WP48 for Philadelphia’s centers.
• Slow starts and shaky finishes were common occurrences for the Heat in this series. Eighty-nine percent of the Heat’s production against the Sixers came in the second and third quarters of the series.
• 92 percent of LeBron’s production, 70 percent of Wade’s production and 88 percent of Bosh’s production came in those two quarters (see this spreadsheet).

This spreadsheet provides the estimated wins produced by the Sixers from the box score stats for the series.

• Brand was the most productive Sixer in the series with an estimated 0.9 wins produced and 0.225 est.WP48. Jrue Holiday was second with an estimated 0.8 wins produced and 0.215 est.WP48.
• Only half of Doug Collins’ nine-player rotation made positive contributions in the series – Brand, Holiday, Evan Turner, Tony Battie and Jodie Meeks.

- Mosi Platt

The following post is from Andres Alvarez.

Well the Denver Nuggets fell to the Oklahoma City Thunder and with that so did my hopes in the Wages of Wins Smackdown. This series felt oddly similar to the Indiana-Chicago series with a slight difference. Denver let game 2 go but was remarkably close in every game in the series. Despite only going five games, this series felt much closer.

The Games

Game two was a blowout. Every other game was close. In fact looking at the numbers, the Nuggets Wins Produced record in 1, 3, 4 and 5 was 1.77 to 2.23. Unfortunately the NBA doesn’t give partial wins — and the refs may give impartial treatment – and the result of the two was an early vacation for the Nuggets.

Breaking down the Nuggets

Where’d our new players go?

A lot was made of trading for Gallinari, Chandler and Felton. While Chandler’s performance was so-so, Gallinari and Felton both played very well during the regular season. In the first round of the playoffs, though, Gallinari and Felton were significantly below average and Chandler was downright terrible.

Wasn’t SG supposed to be figured out?

With Afflalo playing well and J.R. Smith finally “maturing”, the two was a position I expected us to exploit when playing Oklahoma. Afflalo returned from injury, but sadly he was not the same caliber he had been during the regular season. J.R. Smith lost his head, his play, and his minutes. In a position we might have had a slight edge against Oklahoma, we instead ended up with a big hole.

Did we play the right players?

Our best player was Ty Lawson and he also got the most minutes. Yet his total minutes per game was less than three quarters of play. A lot of this was due to sharing minutes with Ray Felton. This is the playoffs, though, and winning is what matters, not handling players’ feelings. Lawson should have gotten more minutes.

In the frontcourt… Chris Andersen is old, overcoming injury, and Denver should limit his minutes. These arguments almost sound plausible except he played behind Kenyon Martin, who is the poster child for the above comments. Additionally Birdman essentially played as many minutes per game as Al Harrington. Andersen was one of our best players per-minute during the regular season and one of the best in the postseason. Unfortunately the power of good play is limited on the bench.

Final Thoughts

While convenient to blame bad calls or injuries, the truth is that only Lawson and Birdman showed up to this series. Unfortunately against a fairly balanced team that wasn’t enough. A familiar story plays out in Denver. If the Nuggets had played the whole season the way they did after the trade (in short if we had a full season without Melo and with Lawson) they could have had a better playoff seed. Unfortunately they ended up without home court against a tough opponent and lost. Here’s hoping for next year.

Breaking down the Thunder

Playoff Mode

When looking over the regular season numbers for the Thunder a very clear thing stands out. They have many good players but no “Superstars” (WP48 > 0.250) In the first round of the playoffs Durant, Harden and Ibaka went into “playoff mode” and played much better than they did during the regular season. If these players can keep that up, then it is a scary prospect for future opponents.

Will Westbrook and Perkins be back?

Russell Westbrook was a very good player during the regular season. Perkins was a moderate center. Neither player showed up. However, if these two players can revert to their regular season numbers then the Thunder will be complete top to bottom.

Sticking with Arturo’s Plan

Arturo’s Half Baked Theory (which I will mention in every playoff write-up I do) essentially says your top six players in terms of minutes decide your playoff fate. The Thunder had an easy template to follow; they just played their top six players using the same scheme they used since the Perkin’s trade. We also notice they pushed the minutes Durant played (a strategy I wish Denver had followed with Lawson). With four of their top six playing very well — and regular season numbers suggesting Perkins and Westbrook can play better — the Thunder look in good shape.

Final Thoughts

I expected a fight this series and I got it, mostly. The Thunder are playing very well, and with Los Angeles and San Antonio struggling this year may see them in the Finals. Giving Durant the ball seems to be working out well — and thanks to Jeff Green leaving — the Thunder finally have a decent big. That said their front court is weak (with only Ibaka playing well), and their back court is dependent on Westbrook showing up.  Still, the Thunder should be able to handle the Spurs or Grizzlies next round.

-Dre

P.S The Wages of Wins Network is doing a wrap up of every playoff series this year. Here are our previous wrap ups

• Eastern Conference Quarter Finals: Boston vs. New York
• Eastern Conference Quarter Finals: Chicago vs. Indiana

The following is from Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index. 

If it’s the weekend, then it’s time for another Wages of Wins Network podcast!

You can listen to the podcast one of three ways:

• By downloading it from nerdnumbers.com,
• Subscribing to the RSS feed or
• Going to iTunes.

The Cast:

• Dave Berri from the Wages of Wins Journal
• Mosi Platt from the Miami Heat Index

The Synopsis

• Dave Berri began the podcast with his thoughts on Roger Goodell’s op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, capitalism and the NFL lockout.
• The conversation moved from the NFL lockout to the NFL draft. ESPN Magazine’s NFL Draft Preview issue used pro-football-reference.com’s Approximate Value model to identify the career value of every player that was on an NFL roster last season. They reported Peyton Manning was the most valuable 1st round pick in the NFL and Brett Favre, a 2nd round pick, had been more valuable than every player in the league. Despite a good career, however, Favre was only the 40th-ranked quarterback last season in terms of Wins Produced per 100 plays. And despite the value of Manning and Favre, draft position is not a good indicator of future performance for quarterbacks.
• Dave Berri discussed the state of advanced stats for the NFL, how they’re perceived by coaches and how statistical analysts for NBA teams managed to reduce the reliability of their models despite having access to better data than NFL analysts.

The conversation moved from a comparison of advanced stats in football and basketball to the NBA playoffs. The following topics were discussed:

• How much value are coaches bringing to their huddles? It can’t be too much if you ask Larry Bird. He said NBA coaches are wrong 60 percent of the time.
• Are the Bulls still the best team in the East, or have they been passed by the Heat and the Celtics?
• Does the half-baked notion need to spend some more time in the oven?
• What happened in the Spurs vs. Grizzlies series?
• Should Otis Smith be fired by the Magic? Will Dwight Howard and Chris Paul make their next teams instant title contenders?
• If defensive players like the Heat’s Joel Anthony have a positive impact on their team’s efficiency differential but their actions aren’t captured in the box score, then do they make their teammates better?
• Are the Thunder the best in the West?
• Mark Cuban wants to kick bloggers out of the Mavericks locker room because they bring nothing but negativity to the team and provide little value, but is there anything positive to say about that team’s title hopes? And does it make sense to revoke online journalists’ media access?

- Mosi Platt

The following was originally posted at Arturo Galletti’s Amazing Stats.

Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.
-Sir Winston Churchill, Speech in November 1942

Has it really almost been a year?

The first post I ever wrote for the Wages of Win network (and in fact the first post written for the network) was about my beloved Celtics and how people should not be surprised by their success in the 2010 Playoffs against the Cavaliers (see here). One of the key points in the article was that bad minute allocation and inefficient use of resources doomed the Cavaliers. This led me to think about teams that were successful in the regular season but dramatic failures in the playoff which led to the Half-Baked Notion (full article here ).

The Half Baked Notion

The Half-Baked notion is this: what wins in the regular season is not necessarily what gets you the big trophy.

What’s the difference? Minute allocation& how wins produced are affected by that allocation. We continuously hear terms like playoff rotation and playoff minutes thrown around come playoff time. The funny thing is that when we use math and science to take a take a look at the data we see that the pundits may just be right .

The half baked notion tells us that a good deep team filled with average and above average players will get you in the playoffs but to get far in the playoffs you need your wins to be concentrated in your Top 6.

If we look at 2010 numbers:

• The best two players accounted for 55% of a teams wins in the 2010 Playoffs.
• The top three players are just below the pareto threshold (80% of the Wins)
• The next three (4,5,6th man) account for the rest of the positive win contribution about equally.
• After that everybody else actually hurt teams in the playoffs.

30 to 16 to 1

30 to 16. When looking at the NBA, we typically focus our energy on what happens in the regular season to turn thirty regular season teams into 16 playoff teams. This is perfectly understandable but I believe it misses the point somewhat.

16 to 1. The true goal of any NBA season is to turn thirty teams into one champion and based on the Half-Baked Notion what gets you from 30 to 16 is not what gets you from 16 to 1.

With 30 to 16 to 1, I focus on the top six players for each team that will make the difference come playoff time.

In the pre-season, I worked my way through every team in the 2009-2010 NBA Playoffs based on my half-baked notion about the difference between the Regular season in the NBA and the Playoffs.

This year god-willing we will do that too .

Thunder god that is!

But this year we are going to start with series post mortem first. We will look at each series thru the prism of Wins Produced and the Half Baked Notion (see the Basics if you’re new here).

Couple of more things before we go:

• The Championship equation (originally seen here, here and here). I’ve found when looking at all the champions since 1978:

• Win 52 or more games (Houston is an aberration that can be explained in one word: Hakeem)
• Have two star points (either >2 Stars, > Star + Superstar or > 2 Superstars) in your Playoff Top 6
• Have at least one .140 WP48 player who plays PF or Center in your Playoff Top 6 (credit to some dude and we’ll call it the Suns Corollary)
• A superstar puts you in the conversation if you can make it in and surround him some talent (credit to Neal Frazier and we’ll call it the Hakeem Factor or for this year The Chris F#$%ing Paul Factor).

• The Measure of a Champion ( see Here and Here).A team need someone who’s done it before to win it all (unless of course they have Larry Legend playing for them and a ridiculous roster). Magic, Horry, Duncan,Kobe, Manu,Billups, Prince, Rondo did it on the first go but were playing with Kareem, Hakeem,Robinson, Shaq, Duncan,Wallace & Garnett (all bigs). So Howard needs that plus one to get it done (Lebron had it right).
• Homecourt matters ( see here& here). Discount it at your peril.

Let’s get this party started.

Cowbell

Knicks-Celtics

Yeah, it's like that

What I thought:

The Facts: Boston may have been the best team in the league but then they went and blew it up. The Knicks were finally a good team with some hope then they succumbed to their base instincts and blew it up.

Win % @ Neutral Site: About 61% for Boston in the worst possible case. 70 % + in the Best. New York is a bleh team, that 7 game winning streak featured NJ twice, Cleveland, Toronto and Indiana. I’ll take 65%

The Numbers say:

Celts in 5

My Initial Prediction: Celts in 6. Celts will screw around like they like to do in the early rounds. Rondo will find his groove. Shaq will be back by the end to close it out at MSG.

What we got:

Instead of creaky Celtics screwing around, we got creaky Knicks screwing around. Not good. Bad teams cannot afford to dick around come playoff time. Throw in some Homecourt mojo (it’s not really luck if it’s statistically probable as a feature in the NBA) and this was over very,very quickly.

The Numbers Breakdown for the series:

The Celts were 8.5 points better and trending up in this series. This was over on Friday.

The Celts were better on offense and way better on defense. Knicks beat the Celts on Blocks and Offensive rebounds and thus got more offensive plays. But the Celts killed them everywhere else. Mismatch across the board on the court.

It was also a mismatch on the sidelines as well. The Celts big Four all showed up and Doc Rivers played them accordingly. About the only complaint there is with Baby over Jermaine and Kristic. This hopefully will be less of a problem if Shaq becomes available.

The Knicks failed to capitalize on their one advantage at the five position. Turiaf (when used) was effective against O’Neal. Jeffries, Williams and Carter could have helped Melo break his playoff losing streak. D’antoni gets a D and only because the injuries limited his options. He might just get a nice TV contract as consolation though.

What we learned:

The Knicks are a non-starter as currently built. They lack the talent and depth to compete. Their best players (Fields & Billups) showed their age in negative ways. Melo is miscast at the three and plays better at the 4 (i.e on the post which we’d seen in Denver). This is a problem because Amare at the 4 is ok but at the 5? Not good. Throw in a horrible cap situation and next year is a car wreck waiting to happen. Howard and Paul are not coming Knick fans, get used to it. On the plus side, they might go to Brooklyn and the Nyets.

Evil Plan? What are you talking about?BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!

The Celtics are who I thought they were. They just got there faster than I thought. Rondo has his head on straight. Ray is lighting up inferior competition. Pierce and Garnett are efficient on both ends. They have a Shaq/Perk sized hole at the five. Luckily, their likely second round opponent cannot do anything about that. The NBA championship will be decided between the Big 4 and the the Big two and a half.

My money would ride with the Heat (but it’s a close,close thing and it comes down to the Homecourt). My Heart lies with the Celts.

Bring it on.

They are all

Ian Levy is a Third-Grade teacher by day and amateur basketball analyst by afternoon (he usually sleeps at night). Ian suffers from a rare psychological condition known as Anti-Homeritis which renders him incapable of rooting for hometown teams. He grew up in Upstate New York and has therefore been a lifelong Indiana Pacers fan. He writes his own basketball blog, Hickory High, and is a contributor at IndyCornrows and The Two Man Game. You can also find him on Twitter, @HickoryHigh.  Ian currently lives in Boise, Idaho, where he roots against the Boise State Broncos.

I wrote a post for this forum last August, called “Once Again the Pacers are Hoping Players Get Better.” The Indiana Pacers had just completed a trade sending out power forward Troy Murphy, bringing back second-year point guard, Darren Collison, and veteran swingman James Posey. Troy Murphy was a disaster this season, splitting time between New Jersey and Boston, but had been terrific for the Pacers, producing 13.7 Wins last year. At that point, the Pacers were left with a roster which had combined to produce just 22.3 Wins in 2009-2010. With dreams of making the playoffs, the Pacers’ were relying on significant improvement from several players. The dreams came true and the Pacers were able to reach the playoffs, mostly due to some new and renewed contributions from several players.

The table below shows the numbers for the Pacers’ roster this season, and what we would have expected given last year’s performance.

The Pacers compensated for the loss of their most productive player, Troy Murphy, and still won five more games than last year. Jeff Foster and Mike Dunleavy were healthy, returning to levels of production they had provided in the past, combining to produce 6.7 more Wins than their respective performance last season would suggest. Josh McRoberts continued to prove he deserves considerable playing time and Darren Collison’s production held steady as he grappled with the challenges of running a new team and a new offensive system.

After losing a surprisingly competitive than series against Chicago in the first round of the playoffs, optimism will likely be the prevailing mood of Indiana’s summer. The optimism is not unjustified, but should be tempered with caution as the Pacers have some difficult questions to answer moving forward.

With just over $25 million in salary committed for next season, the Pacers have considerable flexibility. Mike Dunleavy, Josh McRoberts, Jeff Foster, T.J. Ford and Solomon Jones are all free agents. A.J. Price’s contract is not guaranteed for next season, meaning he could also be jettisoned at no cost. Price was actually fairly impressive as a rookie last season, but an absolute mess in 2010-2011. Even if his true abilities lie somewhere in between the two seasons, he’s probably not worth a roster spot. Price, Ford and Jones played a combined 2,096 minutes for the Pacers this season, producing -1.5 Wins. Happily waving goodbye to all three should be a no-brainer.

Jeff Foster’s situation is complicated by the possibility of retirement. The chances of him leaving for another team, after spending his entire career with the Pacers, seem pretty slim. Basically, if Foster wants to continue playing he should and will, be welcomed back with open arms.

The way Pacers’ fans view Mike Dunleavy is largely colored by his large contract and injury history. Dunleavy produced 8 Wins this season at a cost of $10,561,984. In the grand scheme of things paying $1.3 million in player salary per win is not a bad deal. It’s vastly preferable to the $1.5 million the Pacers spent on Solomon Jones’ -0.7 Wins. The problem is that the market for player salaries is not built around Wins Produced, it’s built around scoring. In that context it feels to many, that the Pacers have vastly overpaid for Dunleavy’s production. Throw in the fact that he’s missed 100 games over the past four seasons and it’s hard to disagree. Still, for the past four seasons the Pacers have usually been at their best with him on the floor.

Josh McRoberts was very productive for the Pacers this season, but lost his starting job because of problems with turnovers and missed defensive rotations. Between McRoberts and a steadily improving Tyler Hansbrough, the Pacers have a fairly solid power forward rotation. Unfortunately, neither is the low-post scorer or interior defender the team has publicly coveted. McRoberts will likely be due a raise this season, but certainly not more than the Pacers can afford. Even if the team doesn’t believe he is their long-term answer at power forward, his price-tag shouldn’t be unreasonable for a back-up.

The Pacers’ have some young talent in place, particularly in the backcourt with Paul George and Darren Collison. However, there is the possibility of them losing their three most productive players. Foster, Dunleavy and McRoberts should all be in Pacers’ uniforms next season. They may not be, each for different reasons. The team will have a considerable amount of money to spend in free agency. But as we see time and again, spending money unwisely doesn’t actually improve teams. The Pacers’ front office will certainly feel the urge to go find some shiny new players on the open market. Before spending that money, they should take an accurate accounting of what they have. Foster, McRoberts and Dunleavy are all very productive players and should be available at reasonable prices.

The team can’t head into next season simply hoping for player development to take them to them to another level. After three seasons, it’s unlikely the Pacers will ever get above-average production from Roy Hibbert. Brandon Rush and Danny Granger.  At this point, each should be considered a known commodity.

They could make some improvement in just filling the roster spots vacated by Solomon Jones, T.J. Ford, and possibly A.J. Price, with positive contributors. However, if Foster, Dunleavy and McRoberts aren’t brought back the Pacers’ could find themselves in roughly the same position they were in this season, trying to replace double-digit Win Production, and hoping someone steps up to fill in the gaps.

- Ian Levy