Back in February the Oklahoma City Thunder sent Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic to the Boston Celtics for Kendrick Perkins and Nate Robinson. At the time of this move, I expected the Thunder to be much improved. In fact, I argued the Thunder might now be contenders.
Since this move, the Thunder have been 19-6. The team’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) has also improved from 2.6 before the trade to 7.3 since. In other words, the Thunder are now contenders.
So how did this happen?
People have focused on Kendrick Perkins. After all, Perkins won a title with the Celtics. So he is a winner. And having winners help teams win. Right?
Certainly Perkins has helped. But not because he has been “good”, but rather he has replaced someone who was very unproductive. As the following table indicates, Perkins’ WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes] has been 0.067 with the Thunder (average WP48 is 0.100). But since Perkins replaces Krstic – who had a WP48 of -0.056 – adding Perkins makes the Thunder better.
But I don’t think the Perkins addition is the only reason this team has improved. At the bottom of the above table is Jeff Green. Green’s WP48 is -0.033. And with Green in Boston, the Thunder have been forced to start Serge Ibaka at power forward (Ibaka has started every game for the Thunder since February 25).
As the above table indicates, Ibaka is the third most productive player on the Thunder for the entire season. But let’s look at what’s happened since Ibaka moved permanently into the starting line-up. The following table reports what the Thunder players have produced across the past 25 games:
Since the trade, Ibaka has been the second most productive player in terms of Wins Produced. And in terms of WP48, he is leading the team. In essence, the Thunder have managed to swap Green for Ibaka (certainly this is true with respect to the starting line-up) Such a move has vaulted the Thunder from a team that would have had trouble getting out of the first round of the playoffs to a team that can now contend with the best in the West.
Let me close by re-iterating the other benefit of the trade. As we have noted recently in this forum, productive players do help a team win games. But not playing unproductive players also helps. Prior to the trade, the Thunder allocated nearly 3,000 minutes to players whose WP48 was in the negative range. Since the trade the team has only given 114 minutes to these players.
So yes, adding Perkins has helped some. But the increased time given to Ibaka – coupled with the removal of very unproductive players from the team — has been the big story in Oklahoma City. So next time someone goes on and on about Perkins in Oklahoma City, remember the name Ibaka (and also, where Green and Krstic are now sitting).
- DJ
Perkins’ value is his willingness to throw people on their backs when the playoffs start. OKC was lead by nice guys like Durant, Westbrook, and Green. Now, they have a guy that will do this:
But, you have to love Ibaka too.
Ibaka has proven himself to be a very effective mid-range spot up shooter, as well as a very good and mobile defender, both excellent traits for a 7 footer.
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It’s almost sad that Denver and OKC may meet in the first round.
+1 on the Denver thing – I’d love a Denver Miami final – team vs stars.
We’re underestimating the championship pedigree that Perkins has permeated the locker room with.
Agree with Italian stallion… Was hoping 2 of the most improved teams (ie. Okc and den) won’t eliminate one in the 1st round and give lakers a much tougher run to finals.
Are boston’s struggles due in part to allocating minutes to negative WP48 guys like Kristc and Green (they have been rather horrible in BOS, even a scan of their basis stats and /- is a giveaway).
Perkins is an excellent defensive player.
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OKC had given up 100 points in non overtime games 28 times before March(58 games). They have only given up 100 points in 3 non over time games since then(23 games). I would guess that their defense has improved the most since the trade.
Off Rtg: 111.3 (4th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.2 (15th of 30)
Rk Player ORtg DRtg
3 Serge Ibaka 119 104
7 Jeff Green 108 109
8 Nenad Krstic 111 109
12 Kendrick Perkins 97 105
What seems to have happened is that the team traded two below average defenders for two above average defenders. Jeff Green and Krstic were good offensive players but they were at the bottom of the team rankings so losing their offense probably had minimal effect.
It’s not so much the extra time that Ibaka has been given, but the fact that he’s finally able to play his natural 4 position. Having Perkins in there to post up on the opposing big men frees Ibaka up to go roaming for rebounds and for blocks.
Agree with Billy Adams to a large degree. The PAIRING of Ibaka and Perkins (or Ibaka and Collison) is a devestating. Ibaka is free to roam around and play help defense. Ibaka is not nearly as good a 1 on 1 defender as he is a help defender.
But of course… Jeff Green and Kristic weren’t giving the much on D. So the minutes clearly come into play.
I think Harden benefited the most from this trade. Love that guy.. really knows how to get to the FT line.
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