The Handcrafted Wins Produced Numbers for 2010-11

Last November I posted the “handcrafted” Wins Produced numbers for 2009-10.  As I noted last fall…

….these numbers are slightly different from the numbers Andres Alvarez posts throughout the season.  The numbers from Andres are referred to as “automated Wins Produced”.  This is partially because the position adjustment Andres employs is derived from an algorithm that considers such factors as the position designations listed on-line, a player’s height and weight, and the height, weight, and position designations of his teammates.  In general, this algorithm is good enough to tell us if a player was a center, power forward, small forward, shooting guard, or point guard.  But sometimes it might place a player at a position “incorrectly.”

The approach I have taken could be called “hands-crafted” Wins Produced.  Essentially, I go through each roster, and assign positions by considering height, weight, position designations (i.e. same factors as Andres) and also my understanding of what position the player is probably playing.  This process is fairly tedious (hence the inability to provide updated numbers throughout a season).  In general, Andres and I reach the same conclusion for most players (so the automated approach – since it is easier – is preferred). Sometimes, though, there are differences.

It is also possible that a person looking at the lists Andres and I offer would disagree.  If that is the case, I have presented the ADJ P48 numbers (you can look here for what the means) and the position averages.  This will allow one to calculate their own WP48 numbers for each player.

Now that the 2010-11 regular season is complete, I can now post the “handcrafted” numbers for this past season (yes, I can do this almost seven months earlier than last year).

The following two websites report these numbers.  The first takes you to a ranking of all 453 players, starting with Kevin Love and ending with Andrea Bargnani (more on Bargnani below):

Table One: Ranking All Players by Wins Produced in 2010-11

And this table allows you to look at each team. 

Table Two: Ranking All Players on Each Team by Wins Produced in 2010-11

As noted, you may not like how positions were assigned.  So if you wish to see what a player would look like at a different position, here are the ADJ P48 position averages for 2010-11.

  • Center: 0.425
  • Power Forward: 0.377
  • Small Forward: 0.272
  • Shooting Guard: 0.229
  • Point Guard: 0.272

To illustrate how these averages can be used, consider a question I was asked by Kevin Clark of the Wall Street Journal yesterday.  Kevin noted — in It’s Carmelo Anthony, Plus the Not-So-Fantastic Four —  that the Knicks closed out its last playoff game with the following five players on the court:

  • Center: Jared Jeffries [ADJ P48: 0.241]
  • Power Forward: Carmelo Anthony [ADJ P48: 0.364]
  • Small Forward: Bill Walker [ADJ P48: 0.244]
  • Shooting Guard: Roger Mason [ADJ P48: 0.170]
  • Point Guard: Toney Douglas [ADJ P48: 0.271]

Kevin asked the following question:  Imagine these five players played all the minutes for the Knicks in a regular season (and the added time didn’t impact per-minute performance). How many games would these five be expected to win?

Here was my answer (from Kevin’s artice):

Basketball analyst David Berri, an associate professor of economics at Southern Utah University, said the Knicks’ lineup in crunch time Tuesday night was far from impressive. According to his projections, that lineup would have produced just 17 wins over an 82-game regular season.

Yes, that isn’t a great collection of talent on the court for the Knicks. 

One last note on these numbers.  Brendan Nyhan pointed me to the following story (from Eric Freeman at Yahoo! Sports) on Andrea Bargnani yesterday. 

Raptors GM thinks Bargnani can become a good rebounder

The article notes that Bryan Colangelo – the Raptors General Manager and person responsible for bringing Bargnani to Toronto – still thinks Bargnani can get better on the boards (yes, hope can spring eternal).  But as Freeman notes, that seems unlikely at this point. 

Freeman also notes that Bargnani plays like a 7-foot small forward.  Let me close by noting that even if Bargnani were a small forward, with an ADJ P48 mark of 0.191, Bargnani would still be below average (but not the least productive player in the game).

- DJ

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