David Leonhardt – of the New York Times – has been awarded a Pulitzer Prize for

for his graceful penetration of America’s complicated economic questions, from the federal budget deficit to health care reform.

Leonhardt is known for his writing on economics. But once upon a time he also wrote about sports.   And back when the Wages of Wins was published, Leonhardt made an effort to teach me how to write (a story I told back in 2007).

Unfortunately, David’s efforts didn’t lead too much in positive results :)  I have always appreciated, though, that he made the effort and am very happy to see his work rewarded with a Pulitzer Prize.

Beyond Leonhardt winning the Pulitzer Prize, I also wanted to offer a brief comment on another story that appeared yesterday.

Rick Adleman and the Houston Rockets have parted ways.  Adelman currently ranks 8^th in NBA history in coaching wins, 9^th in winning percentage (among coaches who coached at leat 500 regular season games, and 9^th in playoff wins.   These numbers suggest Adelman ranks among the best coaches in league history.

Despite these numbers, though, here is what Adelman thinks drives success in the baskeball:

“I had three experiences [before Houston],” he said. “At two, I had a lot of talent and at one, I didn’t. I won at two places and didn’t win at the other. I figured it out that talent is pretty important…”

I would add that in our study of NBA coaches (published with Leeds, Leeds, and Mondello and discussed in Stumbling on Wins) we did not find that players were systematically better under Adelman.  This result is similar to what we found for most NBA coaches. 

And before anyone mentions Tom Thibodeau (who currently has the highest winning percentage of all coaches in NBA history), let me just note the following about the 2010-11 Chicago Bulls.

• The Bulls efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) and Wins Produced in 2010-11 is consistent with a team that would win about 61 games in a complete regular season.
• If we consider the production of the veteran players the Bulls employed this year in 2009-10, and the minutes and position played in 2010-11, we would have expected the Bulls to win about 59 games in a complete regular season.   

Yes, Derrick Rose played better this year.  But that may reflect Rose’s age.  When it comes to coaching, it doesn’t appear that most players the Bulls employed this year are dramatically different than what they were before Thibodeau became their coach.

And one suspects, if Thibodeau keeps coaching he will eventually have a team that is less talented.  When that happens, he will probably learn the very lesson Adelman taught yesterday. 

Coaching simply doesn’t matter much in the NBA.  And as I noted, this was also the lesson Leonhardt learned when he volunteered to serve as my coach (see how I tried to connect the two subjects of this post… once again the lack of writing talent appears :).

- DJ

Last August, Henry Abbott – of TrueHoop – made the following prediction:

(Darko) Milicic will help his team more than (Shaquille) O’Neal will (help the Celtics) this upcoming season.

Henry had a host of reasons behind this prediction.  A sample of reasons included Shaq’s reputation as a poor team defender, his age, and the number of minutes Darko and Shaq would see. 

Of these, the latter seemed most important.  It was fairly clear that Milicic would get more minutes than Shaq this season.  And that led Henry to note the following:

So, here’s the deal: I’m not saying Milicic will score more, play better D, have a better PER or anything else. I’m saying that over the course of this season, smart analysis will show he’ll produce more at both ends of the floor, in total. In other words, heck yes we’ll factor in defense, and heck yes, I’ll take the advantage I’ll get from the reality that he’s likely to play more minutes.

And that may not be fair in judging the better player, but it’s fair when we’re talking about the value of signing this or that player — players who can get on the floor are more valuable than players who can’t.

If the two have similar production, at both ends of the floor, we’ll appoint some kind of commission of stat geeks to poke into all the best available metrics — PER, SCHOENE, plus/minus, WinScore, or whatever they want to use — to break the tie.

Looking back on this, I am not really sure how this prediction was supposed to be evaluated.  But now that the season is over, we can compare what the two players offered on the court.

Just as Henry imagined, Darko did see more playing time this year.  Milicic played 1,686 minutes in 2010-11 while Shaq was only on the floor for 752 minutes.  But although Darko got more playing time, it is hard to look at the box score numbers – noted in the table below — and conclude that Milicic helped his team.

The per 48 minute numbers reveal that Milicic was below average with respect to shooting efficiency, free throw attempts, scoring, rebounds, turnovers, and personal fouls.  He was above average with respect to taking shots from the field, steals, assists, and blocked shots.  But when we put it all together, Milicic had a very poor season.

To see how poor, consider Milicic’s career entering this season.  Here are his marks with respect to Wins Produced and WP48 [Wins Produced per 48 minutes].

2003-04: -0.6, -0.171

2004-05: -1.1, -0.211

2005-06: 0.8, 0.049

2006-07: 2.4, 0.061

2007-08:-1.6, -0.045

2008-09: 1.1, 0.052

2009-10: -0.2, -0.016

Career (prior to 2010-11): 0.8, 0.006

As one can see, Milicic’s worst season of his career – in terms of Wins Produced – was 2010-11.  So even though he played more minutes than Shaq, his production of -3.4 wins was easily eclipsed by Shaq’s production of 1.6 wins.

Does that mean Henry lost the bet?  Again, I am not sure how this prediction was going to be evaluated.  And if you read over what Henry said, he never mentions Wins Produced.  He does mention Win Score, though, and if we look at that measure we see that Milicic – with a mark of 241.0 – did more than Shaq.  So by that measure, Henry wins the bet.

Of course, that is only because Milicic played more minutes than Shaq.  If we focus on production relative to position played (as we do when we look at Wins Produced), Milicic was awful.  So I don’t think Henry’s prediction came true.

I would note that someday, though, I think it has to be true.  In Kareem Abdul-Jabbar’s last season he posted a WP48 of -0.056.   Shaq is old and declining, and if he keeps playing, he would eventually offer as little as Kareem did in his final season.  So I think someday, Milicic can offer more than Shaq.  Someday, though, was not 2010-11.

- DJ

P.S. One last note… having Kevin Love as a teammate didn’t help Milicic.  Love led the league in Wins Produced this season.  And the existence of diminishing returns indicates that having Love as a teammate diminishes a player’s production. But the diminishing returns effect –as I have often noted – is not that large; and given how far Milicic is in the negative range, I do not think diminishing returns explains why Abbott’s prediction didn’t appear to come true.

Once again Henry Abbott has asked me to participate in the TrueHoop Stat Geek Smackdown.  The contest works as follows:  A number of statistically inclined persons choose the winner of each playoff series (you get five points for getting this right in each series).  In addition to choosing the winner, we also pick how long each series will last (this can earn you an additional two points).  Whoever earns the most points across the 15 playoff series of the NBA post-season wins the contest and gets a cool prize. 

When it comes to stat analysis and basketball, disagreements seem to be everywhere.  These disagreements, though, are mostly centered on the evaluation of individual players.  The evaluation of teams is generally agreed upon.  For example, the model I employ argues that the outcome of each series is a function of each team’s efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) and home court advantage.  Since I suspect everyone employs a similar model, how is it that we come up with different picks?  Well, sometimes we don’t (as one can see if you review the picks from this year).  But when there are differences it probably comes down to how we think various injuries and roster changes will impact a team’s chances. 

What follows is the story I think these injuries and roster changes tell.  Of course, others can – and did – tell a somewhat different story.

Let’s start in the Eastern Conference

Chicago (1) vs. Indiana (8)

Chicago has homecourt advantage and an efficiency differential of 7.8.  Meanwhile, the Pacers are the worst team in the playoffs with a differential of -1.1.  So this pick is easy.

Chicago 4-0.

Miami (2) vs. Philadelphia (7)

Miami has homecourt advantage and the league’s best differential (8.0).  The Sixers had a nice season, but with a differential of 1.6, Philadelphia is not likely to defeat the Super -Friends. 

Miami 4-1

Boston vs. New York

Boston’s efficiency differential for the entire season is 5.8.  And although many people thought Carmelo Anthony would substantially improve the Knicks; that really didn’t happen.  The team’s efficiency differential at the end of the season – a 0.8 mark – is not much different from what it was before Melo came to town.  What has changed in the last few months of the season, though, is the play of the Celtics.  Boston sent Kendrick Perkins to the Oklahoma City Thunder for Jeff Green and Nedad Krstic.  Both of these players were below average with the Thunder. And both are below average with Boston.  Furthermore – and not surprising (given the infusion of unproductive talent) — the Celtics efficiency differential since the All-Star break has only been 2.5 (thanks to Arturo Galletti for sending me the post All-Star differentials for each team).  That suggests this series is going to be closer than the season differentials suggest.  But although the gap is closer, I still am going to pick the Celtics to advance.

Let me note – as Henry observed – that I am the only one in the contest with this much faith in the Knicks.  Perhaps that means I am the only one with this little faith in Green or Krstick (or maybe I am just confused).

Boston (4-3)

Orlando vs. Atlanta

Atlanta has gone 3-1 against the Magic this year.  And the trade the Magic made last December really didn’t transform Orlando into a team that could contend with Chicago and Miami.  That being said, the Magic’s differential for the entire season is 5.8. And Atlanta’s mark is -0.9.  In other words, if it wasn’t for the Pacers, the Hawks would be the worst team in the NBA playoffs.  These numbers suggest that Magic will be able to sweep the Hawks (by the way, I am the only one who thinks the Magic sweep the Hawks).

Orlando (4-0)

Now here is the Western Conference.

San Antonio vs. Memphis

Injuries have clearly hurt the Spurs (pun intended).  Since the All-Star break the Spurs differential is 2.8.  And the Grizzlies mark is 4.3 since the break (a mark achieved primarily without Rudy Gay).  So this suggests the Grizzlies – a team that has never won an NBA playoff game – might defeat the number one seed in the Western Conference.  Although I am tempted to make such a pick, I am going to guess that Manu Ginobili will eventually be healthy enough to make a contribution.  So my pick is…

San Antonio (4-2)

LA Lakers vs. New Orleans

The Hornets were actually the last team to lose during the 2010-11.  But New Orleans – with a differential of 1.0 – is simply not on par with the defending champions.  So assuming Andrew Bynum can play (and I don’t know for certain this will happen), the Lakers should win take this series.

LA Lakers (4-1)

Dallas vs. Portland

Portland’s acquisition of Gerald Wallace has certainly helped the Blazers.  And of all the teams that won 55 or more games this year, the Mavericks are the weakest.  But I still think the Mavericks – with a differential of 4.5 and homecourt advantage in this series – are favored against Portland.

This is one of only two series where the participants in this contest disagree.  And I certainly can see Portland prevailing.  Of course, now that I have picked the Mavericks, I guess I will be rooting for Dallas to prevail.

Dallas (4-3)

Oklahoma City vs. Denver

This is the hardest series to call. Each team made a major trade this season.  Each team got much better after the trade.   The Thunder’s post All-Star break differential is 6.7.  And that means the Thunder are comparable to the best teams across the entire regular season.  The Nuggets’ mark after the All-Star break, though, is 9.9.  This mark ranks the Nuggets among the all-time great teams in NBA history. 

If we look at the performance of the players on each team before the trade, the mark we see for the Thunder conforms to expectations (as I noted a few days ago). The Nuggets were not expected to get much worse after Melo left town.  But the performance we have seen in Denver since Anthony made people in New York so happy has not been expected.

So this puts me in an odd position.  Do I take the Nuggets performance without Melo – across a relatively small sample of games – as the true measure of this team’s quality? Or do I argue that past performance of the players Denver employs is the best measure of performance?  Given a choice, I am going with the larger sample.  And that means, my pick in this series is…

Oklahoma City (4-3)

Okay, those are my picks. 

The participants in this contest only disagreed on the last two series listed above.  So those series will essentially determine who comes out of the first round in front. 

- DJ

The following is from Andres (Dre) Alvarez.

The season is over and it’s time for the playoffs to erase everyone’s memory of regular season records. While it’s still fresh on our mind, we can hand out the regular season award winners. While the exact standards for each award aren’t well defined, we here at the Wages of Wins Network prefer to look at the stats and hand out the awards accordingly.

Most Valuable Player: The player that has generated the most wins for their team.

Was he on a bad team? Yes! Don’t let that take away the fact that Kevin Love put up a career year and hit levels not seen in Minnesota since Kevin Garnett. Dwight Howard has been a top five MVP candidate for the last five years. He finally overtook LeBron for the lead only to lose out to a surging Kevin Love. LeBron James and Chris Paul aren’t really surprises as both are previous Wins Produced MVPs (or Most Productive Player or MPP). Dwayne Wade helps give the Heat not one but two MVP candidates. Will it help them in the playoffs?

Sixth Man of the Year : The player that has generated the most wins for their team while starting 60% of their games or fewer.

I had thought this award was all but locked up for Lamar Odom, but Kris Humphries made a strong push and pulled it out for the year. Lamar Odom is no surprise on this list and hopefully this is his year to really get the award. Marcin Gortat shows up as well, but that makes me question Phoenix’s judgment on starting centers. Greg Munroe is a bright spot on an otherwise dismal Detroit team. Finally Ibaka has been killing it for Oklahoma, but he may finally be getting his due as a starter.

Rookie of the Year: The rookie that has generated the most wins for their team.

Blake Griffin ends the year as Rookie of the Year, which is not a surprise. Landry Fields gave him a good run for his money though, which was definitely a surprise. Detroit and Toronto have good young big men in Monroe and Davis, and the hope is that those franchises don’t mess it up. John Wall turned out to be a productive player for Washington. Still, the end of the season does show he wasn’t a “sure-fire #1 pick”

Most Improved Player: The Player that has increased their peak wins the most.

At the start of the season I had some definition based on playing within 750 minutes of their previous season’s minutes and improving. However, that is really more a definition for Comeback Player of the Year (a now defunct award). After talking with Devin Dignam, the definition I came up with for this award was the following: the MIP is a player that has played at least one season of 1000 minutes or more prior to this season that increased their peak Wins Produced the most.

Look who shows up again? Kevin Love managed to up his peak performance by a stunning 14 wins! Almost as impressive is Kris Humphries in New Jersey with an 11 win increase. Two other beneficiaries of finally getting minutes are Javale McGee and Marcin Gortat. Derrick Rose has also seen a great increase in productivity, and unlike the other players on this list he was already getting the minutes.

Comeback Player of the Year : The Player that increase their win output the most from last season while playing within 750 minutes of their last season’s minutes.

I felt obligated to put this one in as it was my initial definition for “Most Improved”

Philadelphia definitely lucked out with Elton Brand and Thaddeus Young coming back strong. As mentioned, Derrick Rose did see a big boost from last season. The Celtics definitely needed the Truth to come back strong but it may not be enough. Finally, I suspect it’s of little consolation to Cleveland, but hey Ramon Sessions is playing better.

Stat Smack Down

If you recall at the start of the season many of the Wages of Wins analysts made predictions about a few things. One of these was which players would win various awards.

No one predicted Kevin Love would be the MVP this season. No one predicted Kris Humphries would be the 6^th man of the year. With that said, the preseason predictions for individual player performance were quite impressive. Going by the initial set of rules for “Most Improved” I win the challenge! However, I do think picking Kevin Love on Alex and Devin’s part was a great stroke and I have no problem declaring them Super Expert Extraordinaires! Here’s hoping we can do as well next season.

-Dre

Ian Levy is a Third-Grade teacher by day and amateur basketball analyst by afternoon (he usually sleeps at night). Ian suffers from a rare psychological condition known as Anti-Homeritis which renders him incapable of rooting for hometown teams. He grew up in Upstate New York and has therefore been a lifelong Indiana Pacers fan. He writes his own basketball blog, Hickory High, and is a contributor at IndyCornrows and The Two Man Game.  Ian currently lives in Boise, Idaho, where he roots against the Boise State Broncos.

With the regular season now in our rear-view mirror, bloggers and basketball writers will be posting their choices for winners of the NBA’s postseason awards. Earlier this year, in a bout of malaise and general curmudgeonliness I created a handful of awards for some of the worst and most discouraging achievements of the season. The games have been played, the turnovers have been tabulated. It’s time for the NBA Anti-Awards to be handed out.

The Shawn Bradley Award – This award goes to the player 6’10″ or taller who has had the highest percentage of his shot attempts blocked (minimum 500 minutes played).

Bulls’ rookie, Omer Asik, led this category almost from start to finish. As the season wound down he was briefly overtaken by a late charge from the Hawks’ Zaza Pachulia. However, with Pachulia taking three shots without being blocked on the final night of the season, Asik passed him to win this award by the slimmest of magins. Pachulia finished with 19.0% of his shots blocked, Asik with 19.1%. Asik’s unique blend of size and general awkwardness should make him a contender in this category for years to come

The Shawn Kemp Award – This award goes to the player who has fouled out of the most games. From 1986 up through the present, Shawn Kemp is the NBA’s leader in foul outs with 115, 35 more than his next closest competitor.

DeMarcus Cousins locked this one up, fouling out twice in his last eight games. Cousins finished the season with 10 disqualifications due to personal fouls. He put in a lot of work to make this award possible, committing 328 personal fouls on the season, 65 more than the next closest player. Cousins would like to thank his colleagues for all their wonderfully well-executed pump fakes.

The Jahidi White Award – This award goes to the player with the lowest ratio of Ast/FGA (minimum 500 minutes played). The award is named for White who assisted on just 1.7% of his teammates’ baskets over a 334 game career.

Serge Ibaka is this year’s Jahidi White Award winner. Ibaka totalled 21 assists against 613 field goal attempts, for a ratio of 0.03. It’s tough to fault Ibaka. Playing alongside Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, a guy has to take any opportunity he can to get a shot up.

The Darrick Martin Award - This award goes to the player with the lowest FG% and a minimum of 300 attempts. The award is named for Darrick Martin, a career 38.2% shooter who played 514 games over 13 NBA seasons.

As I mentioned in previous updates there was a lot of movement in this category throughout the season, as players who shoot under 40% tend to find themselves outside the playing rotation. Pacers’ second-year point guard, A.J. Price, bucked the trend seeing progressively more playing time as his FG% plummeted. Price shot 35.7% on the season, narrowly edging cagy veteran Jason Kidd. Well done young fella’!

The Jason Kidd Award – This award goes to the player with the most turnovers in a single game. Jason Kidd has had a Hall of Fame career with many terrific positive statistical contributions. He’s also had 3 career games with more than 12 turnovers.

Amare Stoudemire’s 11 turnover game against Washington, on December 10th, finished the season as the highest in the league. Derrick Rose made a late charge, posting games of 9 and 10 turnovers in February and March, but ultimately fell short. Rose will have to console himself with the NBA’s MVP award.

The Matt Bullard Award – This award goes to the player 6’10″ or taller with the lowest Total Rebound Percentage. (Minimum 500 minutes)

This was one of our most competitive awards. At times Brook Lopez, Danilo Gallinari, Hedo Turkoglu and Andrea Bargnani all looked like clear favorites. In the end, dark horse candidate, Donte Green of the Sacramento Kings emerged as our winner. Greene, who stands 6 feet, 11 inches tall, grabbed just 7.4% of the total rebounds available while he was on the floor.

The Kobe Bryant Award – This award goes to the player who has missed the most shot attempts in a single game. The award is inspired by Kobe’s performance in Game 7 of the Finals last season.

Surprisingly, this was our only category that finished with a tie. Kobe Bryant’s 21 missed field goals, on November 11th against Denver, were matched just 16 days ago by Monta Ellis. Both players would probably rather throw this award away then put in on their mantles. I hope it doesn’t take them 21 tries to get it into the garbage can.

The Nick Anderson Award - This award goes to the player who missed the most free throws in a single game. Anderson was actually a decent free throw shooter. But his four missed free throw attempts in the 1995 Finals against Houston kind of stand out in my memory.

As expected Dwight Howard easily takes this award. This season he has missed 12 free throws in a game once, 11 free throws three times, and 10 free throws three times. Hopefully, taking home this hardware will lessen the sting of missing out on the MVP.

The Chris Childs Award – This award goes to the player who has posted the highest Turnover Percentage so far this season. It’s named after former New York Knick Chris Childs, who retired with a career Turnover Percentage of 22.8%. (Minimum 500 minutes)

Joel Pryzbilla just barely topped our minutes requirement, stealing this award from Chris Duhon. Pryzbilla finished the season with a TO% of 34.2%. That means more than one out of every three Pryzbilla possessions ended with an offensive foul, a wild pass into the stands, or a dribble off his own leg.

The Andrea Bargnani Award (Formerly the Darius Songaila Award)– This award goes to the player who has provided his team with the least overall production. I use Wins Produced to determine the winner here. (Minimum 500 minutes)

Toronto’s Andrea Bargnani has been the favorite all season, and in the end, he did not disappoint. With a WP48 of -0.122 he’s “contributed” -6.0 wins in 2,353 minutes. As promised to several disgruntled Raptor fans, this award has now been renamed The Andrea Bargnani Award.

Congratulations to all the winners, it was a wonderful season of folly and futility!