The following is from our resident Raptor blogger Devin Dignam of NBeh?. I’ll turn the floor over to him.
I’ll offer more in-depth coverage shortly, but here are my quick thoughts on the 2011 NBA draft.
Importantly, my evaluations rely on Position Adjusted Win Score (PAWS). PAWS takes Win Score per 40 and adjusts it by position, because each position has different average values.
To calculate this, take the WS/40 of a player, subtract the average positional value, and then add the average value for all players. The average values that I’m using are the same ones used by David Berri, who is one of the brains behind Win Score and Wins Produced. With players who are listed as playing two positions, I use a simple average of the two positional values in question. For those who are curious, the values are as follows:
- PG: 7.4
- SG: 8.4
- SF: 9.95
- PF: 12.59
- C: 12.32
- All players: 10.17
Ranking all players by PAWS gives us a good idea of how well a player performed in their various leagues. A word of warning, though: NCAA PAWS/40 does not correlate perfectly to NBA success, and Euroleague PAWS/40 is even worse. There are players with historically good NCAA PAWS (like Michael Beasley) who don’t turn out to be good players, just as there are players with poor or mediocre NCAA PAWS who turn out to be pretty decent players (John Wall and Derrick Rose come to mind). For the most part, though, players with a PAWS of 12 or higher usually end up being good NBA players, and players with a PAWS of under 7 end up being below average players. Euroleague PAWS are far less reliable due to the way basketball is played overseas, and to my knowledge, no one has examined how well Euroleague PAWS correlate with NBA productivity. Keep this information in mind while using this data.
1. Who won the draft?
Without question, the Denver Nuggets made the best choices on draft night. With the #22 pick, the Nuggets managed to get the NCAA player who posted the highest PAWS/40 (17.28) in the draft, Kenneth Faried. Then they picked up Jordan Hamilton at #26, who posted the 21st best PAWS/40 (at 10.72) in the draft. Of course, the cost of acquiring the #26 was swapping Raymond Felton for Andre Miller, but (ignoring age) that was largely a lateral move, as Felton and Miller produce at about the same rate and are a very close match salary-wise. With a lineup of Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo, Jordan Hamilton, Faried, Nene, and Andre Miller, Wilson Chandler, Danilo Gallinari, and Chris Andersen coming off the bench (or in some such combination), Denver looks really scary.
2. Who lost the draft?
With the #6, #18, and #34 picks, the Wizards had a chance at a huge draft haul. Instead, they walked away with Jan Vesely, Chris Singleton, and Shelvin Mack. Vesely posted a PAWS/40 of 6.76 overseas, which was only good enough for 66th place among all the players who were drafted. Singleton (8.50, 47th) and Mack (8.67, 43rd) weren’t much better, but at least they were somewhat close to average (PAWS/40 of 10) and not below the cutoff line (PAWS/40 of 7).
3. Who made the biggest steal?
There were a lot of second round steals this year, but to me, the team that had no business getting what it got was the San Antonio Spurs. In exchange for George Hill – an average guard still on his rookie contract – the Spurs got Kawhi Leonard, who posted a PAWS/40 of 13.02, which was good enough for 4th amongst all drafted players. The really amazing part about the trade is that they still have a strong guard rotation (Parker, Ginobili), it shores up the Spurs’ weakest position (small forward), and takes minutes away from the unproductive Richard Jefferson. Now the Spurs can trot out a starting lineup of Parker, Ginobili, Leonard, DeJuan Blair, and Tim Duncan, and try for one last ring before Duncan retires.
4. Who made the biggest reach?
Canadian Tristan Thompson had a PAWS/40 of 8.18, which put him 51st out of all the players who were drafted, and yet the Cavs selected him at #4. While I’m glad they did – it certainly removed any chance that my favorite team, the Raptors, would draft the hometown boy one pick later – it was not a good pick. They made the right choice by picking Kyrie Irving with the #1, but man…there were much better options available at #4. Honorable mentions go out to Washington (Jan Vesely, ranked 66th) and Detroit (Brandon Knight, ranked 65th).