How Many Points is Your Player Worth? (Rev. 2)


Arturo Galletti is the Co-editor and Director of Analytics for the Wages of Wins Network. He is an Electrical Engineer with General Electric in the lovely isle of Puerto Rico, where he keeps his production lines running by day and night (and weekends) and works on sport analysis with his free time.

The Wins Produced metric works great when looking over how much a player helped our hurt your team for a season or over their career. When trying to discuss game to game though it can be a little abstract. Luckily the Wins Produced formula is all about converting points (or the difference in points using efficiency differential) to wins so what if we convert wins back to points? It’s easy enough to do with the following formula.

Point Margin = 31 .0 (Wins Produced-Wins Produced by an Average player)


(Editor Arturo’s Note: I screwed this up again :-) . Fixed now)

Basically the difference in Wins Produced for a player versus an average player can be mapped directly to point margin (go here if you want the full detail behind that equation). Let’s illustrate this as well (for simplicity I’m using .100 WP48 as the player average, it’s actually .099). Here’s a break down of how that works on a minute by minute basis.



Trotting out a star (0.250 WP48) is like spotting your team 4-5 points. Trotting out a player like Bargnani? Just the opposite. Trotting out an average player doesn’t gain you any points, but it doesn’t lose you any either.

For quick review of how the best players are helping their team here are the top 30 players, in terms of Point Margin per game.

Name Team G MP PM PM/G
Kevin Love MIN 73 2611 612.3 8.4
Dwight Howard ORL 78 2935 571.5 7.3
LeBron James MIA 79 3063 505.2 6.4
Chris Paul NOH 80 2880 463.9 5.8
Dwyane Wade MIA 76 2824 380.7 5.0
Zach Randolph MEM 75 2724 339.0 4.5
Kevin Garnett BOS 71 2220 298.6 4.2
Kris Humphries NJN 74 2061 305.1 4.1
Pau Gasol LAL 82 3037 337.0 4.1
Andrew Bynum LAL 54 1500 210.8 3.9
Marcus Camby POR 59 1540 227.3 3.9
Joakim Noah CHI 48 1576 183.7 3.8
Rajon Rondo BOS 68 2527 260.2 3.8
Steve Nash PHO 75 2497 285.8 3.8
Reggie Evans TOR 30 798 113.2 3.8
Andre Iguodala PHI 67 2469 238.1 3.6
Al Horford ATL 77 2704 272.0 3.5
Tim Duncan SAS 76 2156 266.1 3.5
Blake Griffin LAC 82 3112 279.3 3.4
Tyson Chandler DAL 74 2059 250.0 3.4
Paul Pierce BOS 80 2774 256.1 3.2
Landry Fields NYK 82 2541 249.4 3.0
Lamar Odom LAL 82 2639 249.2 3.0
Kevin Durant OKC 78 3038 232.3 3.0
Jason Kidd DAL 80 2653 232.2 2.9
Deron Williams UTA 65 2465 178.1 2.7
Manu Ginobili SAS 80 2426 206.7 2.6
Andrew Bogut MIL 65 2297 160.2 2.5
Nene Hilario DEN 75 2291 176.7 2.4
Kobe Bryant LAL 82 2779 184.2 2.2

Table 1: Top 30 Players for 2011 based on Point Margin per game

Starting Kevin Love is like giving your team an eight point advantage (we’ll get to that more in a second.)  The Heat got a 11.4 point boost every game LeBron and Wade showed up. Why don’t teams with these players win every game? Well let’s also check out the bottom players.

Name Team G MP PM PM/G
Andrea Bargnani TOR 66 2353 -337.0 -5.1
Craig Brackins PHI 3 33 -12.4 -4.1
Bobby Simmons SAS 2 16 -6.5 -3.3
Brook Lopez NJN 82 2889 -237.0 -2.9
Darko Milicic MIN 69 1686 -193.8 -2.8
Earl Barron MIL 21 305 -55.4 -2.6
Jeff Green BOS 75 2427 -193.4 -2.6
Aaron Brooks PHO 59 1284 -150.2 -2.5
Jordan Crawford ATL 42 1027 -106.6 -2.5
Glen Davis BOS 78 2298 -194.5 -2.5
Michael Beasley MIN 73 2361 -179.3 -2.5
Samardo Samuels CLE 37 701 -90.1 -2.4
Ekpe Udoh GSW 58 1030 -140.6 -2.4
Travis Outlaw NJN 82 2358 -198.3 -2.4
Jonny Flynn MIN 53 983 -127.6 -2.4
Nick Young WAS 64 2034 -149.7 -2.3
Al Harrington DEN 73 1665 -170.1 -2.3
Jawad Williams CLE 26 391 -59.2 -2.3
Ryan Hollins CLE 70 1182 -158.1 -2.3
Eduardo Najera CHA 31 372 -69.4 -2.2
Carl Landry NOH 76 2008 -167.9 -2.2
Sonny Weems TOR 59 1413 -130.0 -2.2
Linas Kleiza TOR 39 1032 -85.5 -2.2
Jermaine O’Neal BOS 24 431 -52.6 -2.2
Dante Cunningham CHA 78 1637 -166.2 -2.1
DeMar DeRozan TOR 82 2851 -173.2 -2.1
Gilbert Arenas WAS 70 1796 -147.7 -2.1
Derek Fisher LAL 82 2297 -172.5 -2.1
Nikola Pekovic MIN 65 887 -136.2 -2.1
DaJuan Summers DET 22 199 -45.9 -2.1

Table 2: Worst 30 players of 2011 based on Point Margin per game

Bargnani is essentially an anti Dwyane Wade giving his team a 5 point handicap each game. Kevin Love’s 8.4 points can only handle Darko, Beasley and Flynn and the Wolves have even more bad players after that. Luckily the bad players hurt a little less than the good players help. For the most part at least.

If you want the entire league in a shiny image you can get them all here:
Point Margin for every player in 2011

-Arturo

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