Midday Musing: Kobe isn’t clutch. Who cares?

Kobe's not clutch?

Henry Abbott is one of my favorite NBA writers. Part of his claim to fame is his research on the crazy belief that Kobe isn’t clutch. This got started earlier this season when he made the point

He followed this up recently with

The number Abbott listed back in January was 36 makes out of 115 shots for both playoffs and regular season. Kobe managed to tack on another clutch miss in a startling loss to the Mavericks. Let’s ask our friends at Basketball-Reference for a little context.
  • Kobe Bryant has taken 21370 shots in the regular season and 4198 shots in the postseason.
  • His clutch shots taken in the post season comprise less than 1% of his total playoff shots.
  • His clutch shots taken in the regular season comprise less than 0.5% of his total regular season shots.
  • In the regular season Kobe has averaged a TS% of 0.556
  • In the post season Kobe has averaged a TS% of 0.542

In short Kobe is actually a pretty decent shooter (I didn’t say great and don’t even try and compare him to Michael) and he some times misses shots with 24 seconds left and the game on the line. That said, games a) with 24 seconds left, b) the game on the line,  and c) Kobe taking a shot are rare. Kobe Byrant has amassed more blocks in the playoffs than clutch shots taken in both the regular season and the playoffs! When trying to analyze how good a player is why would we focus on something that accounts for less than 1% of one part of their job?

A final note is Abbott uses a very thin line to describe clutch – 24 seconds left and a game tying or winning shot taken. 82 Games defines clutch stats as:

  • In the fourth quarter or overtime and the game within five points.

In the last four years the top player in terms of clutch minutes has never gone over 250 minutes of clutch time play. Barring his rookie season, Kobe has never played less than 2,000 minutes a season (adjusting the 1999 to an 82 game length). If Kobe somehow had the top clutch minutes every season it would have accounted for only 1.25% of his play time.

Players being clutch or not clutch is a very popular theme. In fact to be a winner or MVP candidate many writers will claim clutch is needed. The problem, though, is even when analyzing players that always take the shot when the game is on the line, such as Kobe, it turns out these shots make up very little of what the players do. Even Michael Jordan, who was a killer in the playoffs, only managed to muster up 18 clutch shots in 179 playoff games and almost 7,500 minutes of postseason play. Kobe may not be clutch, but he is a very good player.  And it turns out you don’t really need to be clutch to be a good player.

The Lakers have overcome Kobe's glaring weaknesses.

-Dre

(Editor Arturo Note- I have to respectfully disagree . Seriously, now I need another shower)

Arturo and Pareto take a bow

Hey all,
As I’ve mentioned if you happen to have any cool ideas or ways to visualize data, let us know and you might land a spot at
http://wagesofwins.net/cool-posters/

Arturo has taken this to heart and has supplied three in the less of the span of two days. Today I’ll be showing the coolest. Arturo has checked the Wins Produced for every player over the last five years and produced a lovely image for your enjoyment. Check it out here or its new home in the cool poster section.

Quick note before we go. WP48 numbers are all calculated with the minutes played for each player adjusted to a minimum of 400 minutes played.

Here we go.

*Note players with less than 400 minutes are normalized to 400 minutes played for their WP48.

Still here? Enjoy some fun facts
Fun Fact #1: It only takes 183 out of the 730 NBA Players or 19% in those five years to hit 80% of all wins. Pareto take a bow.

Fun Fact #2: Andrea Bargniani is surprisingly not the worst player in that period. Only the 2nd worse.

Fun Fact #3: T.J. Ford is the only 0.100 WP48 player (the pinnacle of average).

Fun Fact #4: Marcus Williams, >3000 MP, zero Wins Produced.

Fun Fact #5: Only nine players at Superstar Level (>.300 WP48) for the last five years.

Fun Fact #6: Only 17 players at >.250 WP48) for the last five years.

Fun Fact #7: This table

Look at that. Coaches do play the right guys. Most of the time.

Fun Fact #8-?: We leave that to you in the Comments

-Dre & Arturo

Just Desserts: Ranking Every Player for 2011

In a previous post, I deconstructed the MVP race for fun using a consolidated concensus methodology of advanced stats (Editor Arturo’s note- try saying that three times fast) .

Today, after being oh so serious for a week, I reverted to form and decided to have a bit of fun with that method. I’ll do that by ranking every player for every team in the NBA for the 2010-2011 season. The method combines my three favorite metrics for player evaluation:

  1. The Classic Wins Produced stats courtesy of Prof. Dave Berri (explained here).
  2. My own opponent adjusted Wins Produced based stat Wins Produced Combined (explained here).
  3. Basketball Reference‘s Win Shares (credit Justin Kubatko and Dean Oliver)
  4. The average of all three “Win” metrics. (add them together and divide by three)

I chose these metrics because

  • They all have a high correlation to wins at the team level.
  • We want to measure wins when evaluating players.
  • It’s fun to see how players do in different advanced metrics.

Everyone then is ranked by Average Wins, players are shown for their team at seasons end and only player’s with 400 minutes or more are shown.

Let’s get to that creamy center shall we?

I was going to give you a lot more here but a heavy editorial hand came down. You’ll have to wait.

Much like NBA players, I am being oppressed by the system.

Thankfully, waiting is good for the soul.

-Arturo

Editor Dre’s Note. I love Arturo’s posters but they get a bit long for my liking in the blog section. After a long debate with Arturo I’ve decided to make a spot on the Wages of Wins Journal for just cool posters:

http://wagesofwins.net/cool-posters/

To make things fun though if any of you out there have cool posters you can forward them along to us and if we think they’re cool we’ll post them in the Cool Posters area and talk about them. Sound good? I hope so!

Free Agency: Big Names

Hey all,

As you know James Brocato of Shut Up and Jam has been working on Free Agency to help figure out the best players to go after to improve your team. He looked over Point Guards (or lack thereof) and Wings (Shooting Guards and Small Forwards). Today he’ll review the available bigs in free agency with a little help from myself and the talented Heat bloggers Mosi Platt and Alfredo.

The Talent Pool

Player Status Age Avg. WP48* Avg. WP* Value* 2011 Salary
Tim Duncan Unrestricted 35 0.273 13.5 $21.77 $18.84
Nene Unrestricted 29 0.185 9.7 $15.65 $11.36
Kris Humphries Unrestricted 26 0.375 9.2 $14.70 $3.20
Tyson Chandler Unrestricted 29 0.244 7.9 $12.55 $12.60
Samuel Dalembert Unrestricted 30 0.175 7.4 $12.02 $13.43
Marc Gasol Restricted 27 0.134 7.0 $11.37 $3.57
Troy Murphy Unrestricted 31 0.173 6.4 $10.45 $0.22
David West Unrestricted 31 0.105 6.1 $9.83 $8.29
Chuck Hayes Unrestricted 28 0.185 6.1 $9.69 $1.97
Jonas Jerebko Restricted 25 0.128 6.0 $9.44 $0.76
DeAndre Jordan Restricted 23 0.166 4.6 $7.26 $0.85
Luc Mbah a Moute Restricted 25 0.094 4.0 $6.41 $0.88
Greg Oden Restricted 24 0.210 4.0 $6.28 $6.76
Josh McRoberts Unrestricted 24 0.234 3.9 $6.21 $0.89
Reggie Evans Unrestricted 31 0.237 3.7 $5.86 $5.08
Kenyon Martin Unrestricted 34 0.095 3.5 $5.73 $16.55
Jeff Foster Unrestricted 35 0.168 3.5 $5.57 $6.66
Erick Dampier Unrestricted 36 0.105 2.9 $4.64 $1.14
Joel Przybilla Unrestricted 32 0.129 2.8 $4.52 $7.73
Kurt Thomas Unrestricted 39 0.093 2.3 $3.75 $1.80
Thaddeus Young Restricted 23 0.050 2.4 $3.70 $2.90
Chris Wilcox Unrestricted 29 0.100 1.7 $2.72 $3.00
Shelden Williams Unrestricted 28 0.110 1.5 $2.48 $0.85
Kwame Brown Unrestricted 29 0.062 1.4 $2.26 $0.85
Louis Amundson Unrestricted 29 0.059 1.2 $2.00 $2.23
Carl Landry Unrestricted 28 0.028 1.2 $1.97 $3.00
Joey Dorsey Unrestricted 28 0.281 1.2 $1.97 $0.85
Aaron Gray Unrestricted 27 0.107 1.1 $1.84 $1.03
Brandan Wright Unrestricted 24 0.098 1.1 $1.72 $3.40
Craig Smith Unrestricted 28 0.040 0.9 $1.50 $2.30
Jamaal Magloire Unrestricted 33 0.094 0.8 $1.28 $1.23
Spencer Hawes Restricted 23 0.016 0.7 $1.05 $2.97
Hamed Haddadi Restricted 26 0.142 0.5 $0.81 $1.60
Jared Jeffries Unrestricted 30 0.017 0.4 $0.76 $0.22
Leon Powe Unrestricted 28 0.032 0.4 $0.62 $0.21
Shawne Williams Unrestricted 25 0.008 0.1 $0.19 $0.85
Joe Smith Unrestricted 36 0.007 0.1 $0.14 $0.85
DJ Mbenga Unrestricted 31 0.002 0.0 $0.02 $0.85
Steve Novak Unrestricted 28 0.000 0.0 -$0.02 $0.10
Juwan Howard Unrestricted 38 -0.003 -0.1 -$0.06 $0.85
Tony Battie Unrestricted 35 -0.003 0.0 -$0.07 $0.85
Jeff Green Restricted 25 -0.002 -0.1 -$0.14 $4.46
Vladimir Radmanovic Unrestricted 31 -0.003 -0.1 -$0.15 $6.88
Theo Ratliff Unrestricted 38 -0.010 -0.1 -$0.17 $0.85
Etan Thomas Unrestricted 33 -0.033 -0.2 -$0.28 $0.85
Dan Gadzuric Unrestricted 33 -0.017 -0.2 -$0.32 $7.25
Brian Cook Unrestricted 31 -0.077 -0.4 -$0.57 $1.15
Hamady Ndiaye Restricted 25 -0.249 -0.4 -$0.66 $6.76
Nenad Kristic Unrestricted 28 -0.014 -0.4 -$0.69 $5.54
Hilton Armstrong Unrestricted 27 -0.032 -0.4 -$0.70 $0.85
Francisco Elson Unrestricted 35 -0.040 -0.5 -$0.73 $0.85
Alexis Ajinca Unrestricted 23 -0.145 -0.6 -$0.88 $1.47
Al Thornton Unrestricted 28 -0.014 -0.6 -$0.94 $0.21
Darnell Jackson Restricted 26 -0.091 -0.7 -$1.06 $0.85
Dante Cunningham Restricted 24 -0.029 -0.7 -$1.12 $0.76
Brian Cardinal Unrestricted 34 -0.060 -0.8 -$1.21 $0.85
Yi Jianlian Unrestricted 24 -0.027 -0.8 -$1.23 $4.05
Melvin Ely Unrestricted 33 -0.110 -0.8 -$1.34 $0.85
Solomon Jones Unrestricted 27 -0.064 -0.8 -$1.36 $1.50
Brian Scalabrine Unrestricted 33 -0.117 -0.9 -$1.41 $0.85
Jason Smith Restricted 25 -0.054 -1.0 -$1.56 $2.19
Malik Allen Unrestricted 33 -0.123 -1.0 -$1.68 $0.85
Earl Clark Unrestricted 24 -0.126 -1.1 -$1.76 $1.90
Kyrylo Fesenko Unrestricted 25 -0.163 -1.2 -$1.85 $0.85
Glen Davis Unrestricted 26 -0.042 -1.4 -$2.29 $3.00
Jason Collins Unrestricted 33 -0.174 -1.5 -$2.46 $0.95
Darius Songaila Unrestricted 33 -0.075 -1.6 -$2.59 $4.82
Josh Powell Unrestricted 29 -0.121 -1.6 -$2.63 $0.85

Table 1: 2011 PF and C Free Agent Pool. Salary and Value in Millions. Average WP determined via weighting the last three years with the most weight put to the 2010-2011 season. Value is Wins Produced times $1.58 million per win.

To help out, here are the teams who the restricted free agents are tied to:

Player Status Team
Marc Gasol Restricted Memphis Grizzlies
Jonas Jerebko Restricted Detroit Pistons
DeAndre Jordan Restricted Los Angeles Clippers
Luc Mbah a Moute Restricted Milwaukee Bucks
Greg Oden Restricted Portland Trail Blazers
Thaddeus Young Restricted Philadelphia 76ers
Spencer Hawes Restricted Philadelphia 76ers
Hamed Haddadi Restricted Memphis Grizzlies
Jeff Green Restricted Boston Celtics
Hamady Ndiaye Restricted Washington Wizards
Darnell Jackson Restricted Sacramento Kings
Dante Cunningham Restricted Charlotte Bobcats
Jason Smith Restricted New Orleans Hornets

Table 2: PF-C Restricted Agent Teams

Rather than simply — and objectively — listing in order the Free Agents each team should go after, we decided it would be more fun if a few of us just gave a quick take on the three free agents we’d pursue and three we’d avoid like the plague. Here’s our takes.

James’ Targets

If you like him you should put a ring on it.

Who I’d pursue

  • Nene. He’s probably the most efficient scorer in the league and he’s effective in other areas as well. An offensive post presence like Nene isn’t easy to find. He’ll probably go for a pretty high price, but he’s worth it.
  • Samuel Dalembert. He doesn’t seem to get a lot of love from the media (probably because he doesn’t score a lot of points), but he’s been very productive his entire career and he’s a great defensive presence. A team will probably be able to sign him for far less than what he is worth, so in terms of bang for your buck, you can’t do much better.
  • Kris Humphries. How many people heard of him before this? Well, here at the Wages of Wins network, all of us. That’s because he’s been surprisingly productive. Another great value-for-your-dollar player, he could be a great asset to any team, especially one lacking rebounders.

Who I’d Avoid

  • Spencer Hawes. I had the pleasure of watching his team crumble numerous times in college to my beloved Cougs, so I knew early that he wasn’t all he was cracked up to be. Nothing has changed since he joined the NBA: Hawes is still very unproductive.
  • Glen Davis. Davis is easily the most overrated player in free agency this season, and someone is going to grossly overpay for him. But let me let you in on a secret: he’s going to hurt your team if you get him. As in he will actually cost your team wins. Avoid him!
  • Yi Jianlian. I read somewhere the other day that Yi has all the tools to be as good as Andrea Bargnani. I laughed out loud. But then I realized it made sense. Yi has all the tools to be the least productive player in the league.

Mosi and Alfredo’s Targets

Mosi of the Miami Heat Index and Alfredo from Heat Freak discussed this topic a while back on the Miami Heat podcast. Here are some notes from their podcasts on big men to pursue, which is a subject many Heat fans are interested in.

Imagine these two together.

Who They’d pursue

  • Samuel Dalembert. Both Mosi and Alfredo are hoping to see him in a Heat uniform next season. To quote our experts “I think you need a seven footer to grab eight rebounds a game…Philly should never have gotten rid of him.”
  • DeAndre Jordan. He is the most athletic seven-footer Alfredo’s ever seen. Both Mosi and Alfredo think it will take too much to pry him from the Clippers due to his restricted status but he’s another name they’d love in Miami
  • Kris Humphries. One sentence from the Miami Heat podcast summed this up – “That guy can rebound!” Humphries increased pay day is a concern but Riley has been a master at free agency before.

Who They’d Avoid

  • Kwame Brown. “To me Kwame Brown is a stupid basketball player” – Mosi. He has athletic talent and his killer game against the Heat last season turned some heads. That said Mosi and Alfredo say pass.
  • Chris Wilcox. “I don’t think he can play anymore” – Alfredo. He had a good last season but Alfredo and Mosi question if he can still play. Alfredo says the same question would be much easier in 2008. Not the big to try and revive your franchise though.
  • Kenyon Martin. On the podcast Mosi and Alfredo both said they would actually sign him but only as a warm body for the veteran minimum. His age and injury are a concern. Not only that his choice in tattoos set off Mosi’s alarms (For fun listen to the podcast for the most in depth analysis of player tattoos.)

Dre’s Targets

Point to the Nugget's Star Player. Those that pointed to Melo sit down.

Who I’d Pursue:

  • Nene. He’s been the best player on the Nuggets the last three seasons, enough for me to not be worried about his injuries. A top offensive center is not an easy thing to get and many teams know that. I doubt he’ll ever hit superstar status, but as a great center any team will be lucky to get him.
  • Marc Gasol. The last few seasons he’s been an above average center. In the second half of last season he saw a big boost in his production and I think his ceiling is high. In the worst case a team might slightly overpay for a talented seven foot center (which is a rare thing) and in the best case a team may end up with another championship caliber big man. I think Memphis knows that and will likely match any offer.
  • Tyson Chandler. Man is he back. When paired with a talented point guard he’s been on contenders. A defensive presence in the middle is super rare in the NBA these days and it’s no wonder adding one to Dallas last year got them over the hump. Getting him will require outspending Cuban, which I doubt will happen, but I can dream right?

Who I’d Avoid

  • Jeff Green. In the best case he’s a bad small forward and in the worst he’s a terrible power forward. Leaving Oklahoma actually improved the team! He’ll be a test to prove if the Boston front office actually knows what they are doing. His scoring will no doubt fool some team in to overpaying him and I will be waiting to mock them.
  • David West. At his best he’s been slightly above average. He’s now over thirty and there really is no hope of that changing. Somehow he’s been flagged as a top free agent and that will only make his already inflated value worse. He’s benefiting from Chris Paul being underrated and some team will pay the price.
  • Glen Davis. I feel bad to point at two players on the Celtics, but man, let’s talk terrible. In seasons he played less than 1,000 minutes the Celtics made the finals. In seasons he had to take on more responsibility they didn’t. He crossed the ten point per game threshold last season and unfortunately that means he’ll cost some team a fair bit of change while giving them very little in return.

Summing Up

This year’s free agent crop for bigs is actually quite good. There are a few landmines (David West, Glen Davis and Jeff Green) but most of the names out there are actually worth the money. The only downside is that many of the teams that have these players will likely fight to keep them (at least that’s what Dre hopes when it comes to Denver) but that said it’s easy to predict that more than a few fans will be happy at the end of free agency.

-James with Alfredo, Dre and Mosi

Do the Players — and Cities — Really Need the NBA Owners?

The following originally appeared at The Huffington Post.  The idea of a players league has been discussed at the Wages of Wins network recently. This post – which introduces the Basketball Players Association League (or BPAL – credit Devin Dignam for the name) – offers some details on why this league is necessary and how it might work.

The 30 owners of the National Basketball Association have told the players to take a substantial pay cut. And if the players don’t agree, these players are not going to be playing in the NBA for a long time. Which means fans of the NBA are not going to see basketball played at the highest level for a long time.

Such extortion is not uncommon for NBA owners. Just ask the people of Sacramento. Earlier in the year it looked like the Kings were on their way to Anaheim. This move was motivated by the apparent unwillingness of the people of Sacramento to build a new arena for the Kings. When Kevin Johnson — former NBA player and current mayor of Sacramento — indicated he would find a way to publicly finance the Kings’ place of business, the owners of the Kings indicated they would postpone the move to Anaheim.

Unfortunately for cities that host an NBA team, this behavior is often the norm. Robert Baade and Victor Matheson have noted that since 2000, eight NBA teams have begun playing in new (or renovated) stadiums. As the following table indicates, the cost of these stadiums has exceeded $2 billion. Of this cost, $1.75 billion – or 84.1 percent — came from public funds.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Such public investment in private companies is hardly common in capitalism. Capitalism normally functions as follows:

  • Owners provide capital (i.e. buildings, machinery, etc…).
  • Workers provide labor.
  • Capital and labor are combined to produce output. The revenue generated by this output is used to compensate owners for their contribution of capital and workers for their labor.

In North American sports, though, taxpayer funds are often providing a significant portion of the capital. But the returns to capital are given to the 30 men who own the NBA teams (again, who often are not providing a significant portion of the capital). And now, these 30 owners want to reduce the returns to labor.

In response, players like Deron Williams have indicated that they plan on taking their talents to Europe. There is another simple solution, though, that would actually allow people of North America to continue watching professional basketball at its highest level.

Once again, two groups are being extorted by the 30 NBA owners: cities and players. A simple solution is for these two groups to come together and form a new basketball league, which I am gong to refer to as the Basketball Players Association League (or BPAL). In the BPAL, the cities would act as owners. Already — as noted — the cities are providing much of the capital. In the BPAL that practice would continue. But instead of just giving the capital to the 30 men who happen to own the teams, the cities would keep the capital and earn the economic returns this capital generates. Meanwhile, the players would continue to provide the labor (and earn the returns generated by their labor).

If we look at population data from the Census Bureau, we already see a number of cities that could host a professional basketball team. For example, Salt Lake City — with a metropolitan population of 1.1 million — currently hosts the Jazz. The following metropolitan areas are a) at least as large as Salt Lake City, b) do not have an NBA team, and c) have hosted a team in professional baseball, professional football, and/or professional hockey: Seattle (3.4 million people), San Diego (3.1 million), St. Louis (2.8 million), Tampa Bay (2.7 million), Baltimore (2.7 million), Pittsburgh (2.4 million), Cincinnati (2.2 million), Kansas City (2.1 million), San Jose (1.8 million), Columbus (1.8 million), Nashville (1.6 million), Jacksonville (1.3 million), and Buffalo (1.1 million). In addition, Canadian cities like Montreal (3.6 million), Vancouver (2.1 million), and Calgary (1.1 million) could also be asked to join. And this list leaves out such places as Las Vegas or even Mexico City.

Of course, these are just the 18 places that don’t have a current NBA team. Once this league is established, one suspects many current NBA cities might decide to end their often one-sided relationship with the NBA.

In sum, there are many places the BPAL could operate. But would this new league be profitable? The NBA currently claims that owning a basketball team is bad business. Although such claims are widely reported in the media, examinations from Arturo Galletti (of the Wages of Wins Journal — see Here and Here) and Nate Silver (of the New York Times) casts serious doubt on the NBA’s claims. Furthermore, Joe Lacob — the newest owner of the Golden State Warriors — had this to say about the ability to make money on an NBA franchise:

This is an incredible business opportunity. Turning this into a winner No. 1 and running this business better in certain ways… Look, sports franchises appreciate 10% a year on average over three decades, the last three decades. There’s no reason to think this won’t appreciate in value. So that is the least of my worries. We will make money on this team in appreciation of value.

In reading this quote, remember Lacob is talking about the Warriors, a team that has missed the playoffs in 16 of the last 17 seasons (in a league where over half the teams get in every year). Given Lacob’s quote — and the analysis of Galletti and Silver — one suspects that the NBA is simply crying poverty in an effort to extract more money from their players.

With the BPAL, though, this behavior can end. The cities and players can come together and form a partnership that ends the practice of 30 men simultaneously extracting money from both workers and taxpayers. And fans can once again go back to watching athletes playing basketball (as opposed to watching basketball players in suits).

Let me close by noting that if the players get serious about this new league, this current lockout will end very quickly. The NBA owners appear to think that players are going to be forced give in. After all, there is only one NBA. But the scarce resource in this conflict is not the 30 owners. It really is the players.

Lacob reportedly paid $450 million for the Warriors. That franchise price only makes sense if LeBron James, Dwight Howard, Kobe Bryant, etc… come play his Warriors. If these players are all in a new league, Lacob will stand to lose much of his investment in the Warriors. And the same story will be repeated for the other 29 owners. Faced with potential loss of the one thing fans are willing to pay to see (i.e. elite basketball talent), one suspects the stand the owners are currently taking will crumble.

And when that happens… well, I still think the players and cities should form their own league. Either way, though, fans will once again get to see basketball played at the highest level in the world.

- DJ

P.S. Should the picture appear at the beginning or the end of the post? Or should we drop it?  Not sure what works but there has been some confusion about who is writing the posts in this forum.  Maybe if we all added pictures to our posts, that confusion would be reduced.