The following is from Greg Steele, the Rockets writer for the Wages of Wins Network. Greg has kindly offered to look over the career of Yao Ming and done so with a comparison to Greek literature. How many other basketball blogs can say that? Without further ado, here’s Greg!
“Hear me, sister Nereids, in order that you all
know well, hearing how many cares I have in my heart.
Alas how I am wretched, alas how unluckily I was the best child bearer
since I bore a child that was faultless and strong,
outstanding of heroes. And he shot up like a sapling.
After nourishing him like plant on the hill of an orchard
I sent him forth in the hollow ships to Ilion
to fight with the Trojans. But I will not receive him again
returning home to the house of Peleus.”
Homer, Iliad, 18.50-60; a lament for the impending death of Achilles
Getting the top pick in the draft can change the face of your franchise. Of course, it doesn’t always work out (Andrea Bargnani, Kwame Brown and Michael Olowokandi) . The draft has gotten scarier. With more international players — four of the top ten picks in the 2011 were foreign players — NBA teams are essentially guessing or taking a risk on a prospect. In 2002 the Houston Rockets took such a risk by selecting 7’6” Chinese center Yao Ming. Was he worth it?
Yao as a Number 1 Pick
One way to answer the question, “How much is a no. 1 pick worth?” is by looking at the average no. 1 pick’s production for their first four years in the league (under the rookie pay scale). Arturo has demonstrated that the average top pick produces 34.6 wins over their first four years in the league, a level of production deserving of $58.8 million (see here) Here are Yao Ming’s career numbers, with his first four years highlighted:
| Year |
Status |
Min. |
WP |
WP48 |
| 02-03 |
Healthy |
2382 |
9.8 |
.198 |
| 03-04 |
Healthy |
2692 |
10.3 |
.184 |
| 04-05 |
Healthy |
2449 |
10.7 |
.209 |
| 05-06 |
Injured |
1949 |
10.7 |
.263 |
| 06-07 |
Injured |
1624 |
7.8 |
.231 |
| 07-08 |
Injured |
2044 |
10.0 |
.235 |
| 08-09 |
Healthy* |
2589 |
14.1 |
.262 |
| 09-10 |
Injured |
- |
- |
- |
| 10-11 |
Injured |
91 |
.4 |
.194 |
| Total |
|
15820 |
73.8 |
.224 |
*Yao was healthy during the regular season but unfortunately injured himself in the playoffs.
Across his first four seasons, Yao produced 41.5 wins, which is to say that he was 6.9 wins better than the average no. 1 pick. Put differently, Yao Ming was 119.9% as productive as the average no. 1 pick during his rookie contract. Of course, Yao’s fourth season in the league was not only the end of his rookie contract; it was also the beginning of the second half of Yao’s career.
Yao’s career splits rather neatly into two sections. As it turned out, the mighty young star was not completely invincible, and an injury soon crippled him. Like Achilles, Yao’s vulnerability to injury cut short his prime. After the age of 28, Yao played in only five games across the 2009-10 and 2010-11 seasons. Like Achilles, though, the early demise of Yao should not overshadow his passing brilliance. Yao was a legitimate star, at least when healthy.

Yao Ming the All Star
Yao as a Number 1 Pick for the Rockets
Still, one of the main tenets of the Wages of Wins network is that numbers without context mean little to nothing. What was the no. 1 pick in the 2002 draft worth to the Houston Rockets? The Rockets have something of a history with selecting centers with the no. 1 pick in the draft. How does Yao stack up against Hakeem Olajuwon (1984) and Ralph Sampson (1983)?
| Player |
WP |
WP48 |
| Ralph Sampson |
35.4 |
.125 |
| Hakeem Olajuwon |
283.5 |
.308 |
| Yao Ming |
73.8 |
.224 |
It’s fair to say that the footsteps of Hakeem are very hard to follow in. That being said, when it comes down to it, Yao finishes a respectable second amongst the Rockets’ number one picks. It’s a shame to note that two of the three number one picks the Rockets have gotten have had careers shortened due to injury.

Somewhere between these two.
Yao as a Super Giant
How about another kind of context? Bill James introduced the concept of “similar players” to the baseball world. While James originally focused on statistically similar players, the concept is easily applicable to other kinds of similarity. Most Monday-morning quarterbacks would say that the Rockets should have forseen Yao’s injury woes; after all, he’s 7’6”. Super-tall guys like that always have injury problems. Their bodies just can’t take the rigors of the NBA. So, how does Yao compare with a specific group of similar players (supergiants)?
| Player |
Height |
WP |
WP48 |
Min |
| Manute Bol |
7’7” |
19.4 |
.080 |
11,698 |
| Shawn Bradley |
7’6” |
50.9 |
.125 |
19,531 |
| Gheorghe Muresan |
7’7” |
28.6 |
.204 |
6,729 |
| Yao Ming |
7’6” |
73.8 |
.224 |
15,818 |
Yao played the second-most minutes of the four supergiants. Shawn Bradley played almost 4,000 minutes more than Yao, but Yao was 179.2% as productive as Bradley per 48 minutes (.224 WP48 for Yao, .125 for Bradley), so Yao’s total production eclipses Bradley’s by a margin of 22.9 wins. Gheorghe Muresan produced at a level similar to Yao (although not quite as good), but played less than half as many minutes as did Yao. As a result, Yao produced 258% as many career wins as did Muresan (73.8 for Yao, 28.6 for Muresan). In the end Yao ends his career as the best Supergiant to play the game.

He's up there as far as Super Giants go.
Summing Up
So, what’s a no. 1 pick worth? The Rockets didn’t get a Hall-of-Famer or a championship, but they did get a star, oft-injured though he was. Still, it’s hard to bicker with the Rocket’s choice; one Achilles is worth a dozen average warriors. The Trojan army wasn’t going to slay themselves. When you’re attacking a mighty city, you’d rather have one Achilles, a shining star for a brief moment before being cut down in his prime, than a thousand Parises (the man who shot Achilles) or Andrea Bargnanis, lesser men who never had the ability to enter the fray in the first place. The inevitably and totality of his injuries do not obscure Yao’s very real contribution to several playoff teams. What could have been, or what might have been, or what every Rockets fan hoped would be are all irrelevant now. We are left to remember the player Yao was: a star for a few years, for whom injuries prove to be an Achilles’ heel.

If the metaphorical shoe fits the weak foot. . .
-Greg