Mosi Platt (@MIA_Heat_Index) is the Miami Heat writer for the Wages of Wins Network. You can normally find him at the Miami Heat Index. In addition to making sure the world knows the greatness of Dwyane Wade, Mosi also helps keep haters in line. Mosi makes his own lists of people that spread false information and he checks them twice thanks to his trusty Blackberry.
Kobe Bryant, Amar’e Stoudemire, LaMarcus Aldridge and Yao Ming were the most overrated players at their positions by NBA fans and the media in 2011.
I used the following steps to identify the players most overrated by the fans and the media:
- Players were grouped by their designated position on the All-Star ballot and All-NBA teams.
- Players were ranked by the number of wins they produced and the number of votes they received from fans for the All-Star teams and media for the All-NBA teams.
- Players with a difference of more than two spots between their ranking in wins produced and their rankings in votes for the All-Star and All-NBA teams were considered the most overrated by the fans and the media. (Editor’s Note: Mosi also politely added the underrated players for contrast)
Overrated and Underrated Guards
Ten guards were overrated on the fans’ All-Star ballots in 2011 and nine were overrated by the media.
The 2011 All-Star game MVP was the most overrated guard by NBA fans and media.
Most Overrated Guards by the Fans
- Kobe Bryant: 1st in All-Star votes, 8th in wins produced
- Ray Allen: 6th in all-Star votes, 10th in wins produced
- Derrick Rose: 3rd in All-Star votes, 6th in wins produced
- Gilbert Arenas: 17th in All-Star votes, 20th in wins produced
- Vince Carter: 15th in All-Star votes, 18th in wins produced
Most Overrated Guards by the Media
- Kobe Bryant: 2nd in All-NBA voting, 9th in wins produced
- Derrick Rose: 1st in All-NBA voting, 6th in wins produced
- Tony Parker: 8th in All-NBA voting, 13th in wins produced
- Manu Ginobili: 6th in All-NBA voting, 10th in wins produced
- Monta Ellis: 11th in All-NBA voting, 15th in wins produced
- Russell Westbrook: 4th in All-NBA voting, 7th in wins produced
- Deron Williams: 9th in All-NBA voting, 12th in wins produced
- Eric Gordon: 13th in All-NBA voting, 16th in wins produced
Seven guards were underrated by the fans and media in 2011.
The oldest point guard in the league was also the most underrated by NBA fans and media.
Most Underrated Guards by the Fans
- Jason Kidd: 13th in All-Star votes, 5th in wins produced
- Steve Nash: 8th in All-Star votes, 3rd in wins produced
- Chris Paul: 5th in All-Star votes, 1st in wins produced
- Joe Johnson: 20th in All-Star votes, 16th in wins produced
Most Underrated Guards by the Media
- Jason Kidd: 13th in All-NBA voting, 5th in wins produced
- Steve Nash: 10th in All-NBA voting, 3rd in wins produced
- Andre Iguodala: 13th in All-NBA voting, 8th in wins produced
- Chris Paul: 5th in All-NBA voting, 1st in wins produced
- Rajon Rondo: 7th in All-NBA voting, 4th in wins produced
Overrated and Underrated Forwards
Eleven forwards were overrated by the fans and seven were overrated by the media in 2011.
The new east coast bias: Stat and Melo were the most overrated forwards by the fans.
Most Overrated Forwards by the Fans
- Amar’e Stoudemire: 3rd in All-Star votes, 19th in wins produced
- Carmelo Anthony: 5th in All-Star votes, 13th in wins produced
- Kevin Durant: 2nd in All-Star votes, 7th in wins produced
- Danilo Gallinari: 16th in All-Star votes, 20th in wins produced
The man from Brandon Roy’s shadow was the most overrated forward by the media.
Most Overrated Forwards by the Media
- LaMarcus Aldridge: 5th in All-NBA voting, 14th in wins produced
- Dirk Nowitzki: 3rd in All-NBA voting, 11th in wins produced
- Kevin Durant: 2nd in All-NBA voting, 7th in wins produced
- Carmelo Anthony: 8th in All-NBA voting, 13th in wins produced
Nine forwards were underrated by the fans and six were underrated by the media in 2011.
Kevin got no Love from the fans and media in 2011, just David Stern.
Most Underrated Forwards by the Fans
- Kevin Love: 14th in All-Star votes, 1st in wins produced
- Josh Smith: 17th in All-Star votes, 10th in wins produced
- Lamar Odom: 12th in All-Star votes, 6th in wins produced
- Luol Deng: 18th in All-Star votes, 14th in wins produced
- Rudy Gay: 19th in All-Star votes, 16th in wins produced
- Blake Griffin: 7th in All-Star votes, 4th in wins produced
- Pau Gasol: 6th in All-Star votes, 3rd in wins produced
Most Underrated Forwards by the Media
- Kevin Love: 9th in All-NBA voting, 1st in wins produced
- Kevin Garnett: 12th in All-NBA voting, 6th in wins produced
- Blake Griffin: 11th in All-NBA voting, 5th in wins produced
- Gerald Wallace: 14th in All-NBA voting, 9th in wins produced
- Zach Randolph: 6th in All-NBA voting, 3rd in wins produced
Overrated and Underrated Centers
Four centers were overrated by the fans and five were overrated by the media in 2011.
Much like Allen Iverson, fans loved Yao whether he played or not.
Most Overrated Centers by the Fans
- Yao Ming: 2nd in All-Star votes, 10th in wins produced
- Shaquille O’Neal: 4th in All-Star votes, 9th in wins produced
Most Overrated Centers by the Media
- Amar’e Stoudemire: 2nd in All-NBA voting, 11th in wins produced
- Kendrick Perkins: 9th in All-NBA voting, 12th in wins produced
Four centers were underrated by the fans and six centers were underrated by the media.
What’s hurt fan appreciation of Horford more – playing out of position or playing in Atlanta?
Most Underrated Centers by the Fans
- Al Horford: 10th in All-Star votes, 2nd in wins produced
- Andrew Bogut: 9th in All-Star votes, 5th in wins produced
The most underrated center by the media got the best of the most overrated in this clip.
Most Underrated Centers by the Media
- Emeka Okafor: 13th in All-NBA voting, 8th in wins produced
- Tyson Chandler: 7th in All-NBA voting, 3rd in wins produced
Check out this spreadsheet for all the analysis of the overrated and underrated players.
One of the stories told in the Wages of Wins is that NBA fans and writers love scoring. All of the players at the top of the most overrated lists scored more than 20 points per game, with the exception of Yao. The only player at the top of the most underrated lists that scored more than 20 points per game was Love. How much cologne does that guy have to shell out to get some respect?
How many bottles of “Numb#rs” did David Stern get to put Love on the All-Star team?
-Mosi
While I agree with the “overrated by the media” conclusion, I don’t think your data supports the “overrated by the fans” conclusion. There’s a fundamental difference between All-NBA votes and All-Star votes — All-NBA voters are asked to vote for the players they consider best. All-Star voters are asked to (and regularly do) vote for the players the want to see — regardless of basketball ability.
I’m sure Danilo Gallinary received many votes from Italian fans. I doubt many of them thought Gallinary is the best (or even 8th best) forward in the NBA — but they didn’t want “the best forward” to play. They wanted to see the Italian player specifically. The best example of this was of course the voting for Yao.
Similarly, I think Vince Carter received many votes for his superior ability to perform acrobatic dunks (certainly superior than Nash, Kidd, and Paul). That fans would rather watch dunks on the ASG doesn’t tell us that fans would rather watch dunks than wins in the regular season. In particular, fans aren’t supposed to root for a particular conference when voting for the ASG, so they are under no obligation to use their votes to optimize the winning chances of either team.
It may be that fans do really overrate these players, but ASG votes by themselves don’t tell us that unless you have independent research showing that the main consideration fans use really is who they think is “the best” rather the myriad other reasons that make fans want to see a particular player play.
@L:
Your argument is based on the assumption that fans don’t want to see the best. Who’s to say that’s true? Why do they read so many articles about snubbed all-stars when the final rosters are announced?
Actually, my argument is only that fans don’t necessarily want to see the best. Wanting to see the best is one motivation, but there are others, and we don’t know which dominate. Certainly the voting for Yao was dominated by Chinese fans who wanted to see him regardless of playing ability (even when too injured to play!), and I think the same applies to Gallinari.
Most “All-star snubs” articles are written after the reserves are announced; the reserves are chosen by the coaches in each conference. These articles complain about the coaches not choosing the right players, not about the fans.
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@L:
How do you know Chinese fans don’t think Yao is the best center in the NBA?
mosiplatt
to assume that fans choose who they think is best is ignorant. In Yao’s case, I certainly don’t think Chinese voters believe that his production in 10-11 warranted an all-star selection or that he was the best center in the NBA (he didn’t play a single game). They voted for him because they wanted to see him, and only for that reason. Similar to how Magic Johnson made the all star team in 92 even though he hadn’t played. The all-star game is a poor indicator of how “overrated” a player is. The fact is, sometimes fans don’t vote for the best players because they realize that they’ll probably get in anyway.
In addition, some of the players with high vote totals happened to play extremely well before the all-star break, and then cooled down at the end of the season. Amare was on fire for the first few months of the season, and then hit a pretty big slump for the last few. His play at the start of the year definitely warranted a high vote total.
There is no set criteria for voting, it’s impossible to say why people vote in certain ways.
@DavidHines:
You’re an idiot. If “it’s impossible to say why people vote in certain ways”, then how can you say “to assume that fans choose who they think is
best is ignorant”? It’s “impossible” for you to disprove it!
What a crazy assumption that since fans pay to see their teams win (as shown in Wages of Wins) they might also want to see the best players in the All-Star game. Crazy.
And Yao actually played more than a single game in the 2010-11 season. But that’s irrelevant. Just b/c Magic didn’t play in the regular season doesn’t mean fans wouldn’t think he was still the best PG in the NBA (which he probably was since he started at PG on the Dream Team).
Buy a vowel & get a clue.