Waiting on Potential

Some players don’t pan out during their early years. GMs are more than willing to give certain players a second chance though. In spite of their “bust” titles Kwame Brown and Darko Milicic are still gainfully employed. It’s easy enough to believe that players with enough potential will eventually “snap out of it” and become a star despite playing poorly early in their career. Is this really a reasonable assumption?

I decided to look for late bloomers. Here was my criteria:

• Player played two seasons where they earned 10+ Wins (Star) during their career
• Player never had a good season (WP48>0.150 and 1000+ MP) in their rookie contract (first four years)

Has the NBA traditionally been ripe with players that simple needed a little more time to develop? Should a GM invest their efforts into finding diamonds in the rough that other GMs overlooked? The answer appears to be no.

Late Bloomers

Table 1: Late Bloomers before they Bloomed.

Player	Pre-Star Seasons	Pre-Star G	Pre-Star GS	Pre-Star MP	Pre-Star WP48	Pre-Star WP
Chauncey Billups	5	297	203	8154	0.071	12.1
Darrell Walker	5	378	126	8796	0.096	17.6
Detlef Schrempf	5	374	52	8690	0.090	16.3
Doug Christie	4	155	51	2962	0.037	2.3
Gary Payton	4	327	321	10222	0.127	27.0
Gerald Wallace	4	208	77	3485	0.105	7.6
Mike Miller	5	351	283	10747	0.115	25.8
Sam Cassell	6	353	126	9205	0.087	16.7
Stephon Marbury	7	502	496	19196	0.086	34.5
Steve Nash	5	307	148	7536	0.112	17.6
Terrell Brandon	4	304	68	6736	0.086	12.1

Table 2: Late Bloomers after they Bloomed

Player	Post-Star Seasons	Post-Star Star Seasons	Post-Star G	Post Star GS	Post-Star MP	Post-Star WP48	Post-Star WP
Chauncey Billups	9	7	685	685	23523	0.213	104.3
Darrell Walker	5	3	342	230	9805	0.218	44.5
Detlef Schrempf	11	7	762	472	24907	0.193	100.0
Doug Christie	11	3	672	657	23116	0.159	76.7
Gary Payton	13	10	1008	912	36895	0.185	142.5
Gerald Wallace	6	5	407	392	15394	0.239	76.6
Mike Miller	6	3	382	247	12480	0.214	55.7
Sam Cassell	9	3	640	564	20608	0.149	64.1
Stephon Marbury	6	2	344	320	12690	0.113	29.8
Steve Nash	10	10	783	783	26637	0.260	144.3
Terrell Brandon	7	4	420	412	14809	0.206	63.5

We do have some genuinely awesome talents. Chauncey Billups, Detlef Schrempf, Gary Payton and Steve Nash all turned into great players after their rocky starts. Walker, Christie, Cassell and Brandon managed to have short bursts of greatness. Miller and Wallace are still playing and their ability to overcome injury will dictate their legacy. Marbury managed to turn himself from a below average overrated scorer to an average overrated scorer. There’s hope for every player!

Summing Up

Despite the fact that late bloomers do exist we should not be so optimistic. Over 2500 players have suited up since 1978. Around 300 of these players have turned into “stars”. It’s very rare to find a star player and even rarer to find one out of a pool of players that have been playing badly. Everyone can hope that their favorite player that is chocked full of potential will turn it around. Sadly, the fact is if it hasn’t happened by their first contract extension, it probably won’t ever happen. That won’t stop many GMs from hoping though.

-Dre