Waiting on Potential
Some players don’t pan out during their early years. GMs are more than willing to give certain players a second chance though. In spite of their “bust” titles Kwame Brown and Darko Milicic are still gainfully employed. It’s easy enough to believe that players with enough potential will eventually “snap out of it” and become a star despite playing poorly early in their career. Is this really a reasonable assumption?
I decided to look for late bloomers. Here was my criteria:
- Player played two seasons where they earned 10+ Wins (Star) during their career
- Player never had a good season (WP48>0.150 and 1000+ MP) in their rookie contract (first four years)
Has the NBA traditionally been ripe with players that simple needed a little more time to develop? Should a GM invest their efforts into finding diamonds in the rough that other GMs overlooked? The answer appears to be no.
Table 1: Late Bloomers before they Bloomed.
|Player||Pre-Star Seasons||Pre-Star G||Pre-Star GS||Pre-Star MP||Pre-Star WP48||Pre-Star WP|
Table 2: Late Bloomers after they Bloomed
|Player||Post-Star Seasons||Post-Star Star Seasons||Post-Star G||Post Star GS||Post-Star MP||Post-Star WP48||Post-Star WP|
We do have some genuinely awesome talents. Chauncey Billups, Detlef Schrempf, Gary Payton and Steve Nash all turned into great players after their rocky starts. Walker, Christie, Cassell and Brandon managed to have short bursts of greatness. Miller and Wallace are still playing and their ability to overcome injury will dictate their legacy. Marbury managed to turn himself from a below average overrated scorer to an average overrated scorer. There’s hope for every player!
Despite the fact that late bloomers do exist we should not be so optimistic. Over 2500 players have suited up since 1978. Around 300 of these players have turned into “stars”. It’s very rare to find a star player and even rarer to find one out of a pool of players that have been playing badly. Everyone can hope that their favorite player that is chocked full of potential will turn it around. Sadly, the fact is if it hasn’t happened by their first contract extension, it probably won’t ever happen. That won’t stop many GMs from hoping though.