Dwyane Wade is Grant Hill with a Ring

Greatest of All Time?

Like Michael and Larry right?

Is Dwyane Wade one of the greatest of all time? Other Wages of Wins Analysts may think so. A simple fact is titles do influence our perception of players. Let’s take a very simple example: Grant Hill. Is Grant Hill one of the greatest of all time? The common response to that is that he was a great talent that could have been an all time great if his career wasn’t hampered due to injury. That’s a polite way of saying no. However I contend if you argue Dwyane Wade is an all-time great then Grant Hill is as well.

Early Careers

Anybody remember these Sprite ads?

Grant Hill and Dwyane Wade both entered the league at the ripe old age of 22 and both were drafted by equally abysmal teams. And here is how each performed early in their respective careers.

Table 1: Grant Hill’s Early Career (1995-2000) with the Detroit Pistons

Season	Player	Team	MP	G	WP48	WP*	Rank	SF Rank
1995	Grant Hill	Detroit	2678	70	0.176	9.8	31	4
1996	Grant Hill	Detroit	3260	80	0.320	21.7	3	1
1997	Grant Hill	Detroit	3147	80	0.396	26.0	1	1
1998	Grant Hill	Detroit	3294	81	0.239	16.4	10	2
1999	Grant Hill	Detroit	1,852	50	0.273	17.2*	6	1
2000	Grant Hill	Detroit	2776	74	0.239	13.8	16	4
Total			17007	435	0.296	104.9

*1999 Season Wins Produced Numbers are adjusted for an 82 game season. The actual Wins Produced for Grant Hill was 10.5.

Table 2: Dwyane Wade‘s “Early” Career (2004-2011) with the Miami Heat

Season	Player	Team	MP	G	WP48	WP	Rank	SG Rank
2004	Dwyane Wade	Miami	2126	61	0.128	5.7	89	22
2005	Dwyane Wade	Miami	2974	77	0.205	12.7	17	3
2006	Dwyane Wade	Miami	2897	75	0.295	17.8	8	1
2007	Dwyane Wade	Miami	1931	51	0.291	11.7	24	4
2008	Dwyane Wade	Miami	1954	51	0.146	5.9	84	14
2009	Dwyane Wade	Miami	3048	79	0.331	21.0	4	1
2010	Dwyane Wade	Miami	2792	77	0.306	17.8	7	1
2011	Dwyane Wade	Miami	2824	76	0.322	18.9	5	1
Total			20546	547	0.260	111.5

When we account for the fact that 1999 was a lockout shortened season, we see that Wade in his eight year career has been about as productive as Hill was in his early six year career. The major difference is that Hill became a better player much quicker. Hill was a top 10 talent in the NBA right up until his injury cut him down in the 2000 season.

Wade started a little slower than Hill, but also became a top-ten caliber player. He was then hit with the injury bug as well. He seems to have recovered, and has been an MVP candidate and the best two-guard in the league for the last three seasons (yes, even better than Kobe).

The Difference in Decisions

Funny what playing next to a star does for your image.

Wade has also had the fortune of good players wanting to come to Miami while he has been healthy. In 2005 Shaquille O’Neal hopped on board just in time for Wade to hit his stride and win a title. In 2011 LeBron James decided to join forces with Wade. This helped Wade achieve post-season success and as a result get himself into the greatest of all time discussions.

Both Hill and Wade had very productive primes (the clock is still running for Wade) and have had four seasons as a top-ten talent in the NBA. When calling either an all-time great I would say neither has done enough . . . yet. Hill’s time is up and Wade may get there one day. I just want to wait before elevating an injury-prone player like Wade to the ranks of Michael Jordan or Clyde Drexler – or even Kobe Bryant – just because he’s had four great seasons.

-Dre

14 Responses to "Dwyane Wade is Grant Hill with a Ring"

greyv says:

August 19, 2011 at 9:38 am

Short response: Injuries suck.

But really, can we throw out career longevity from the list of benchmarks for greatness? We’re talking about a sport where the average career-length is something like three years, where the peak age is 25. And even for the outliers who managed to grind it out for a dozen seasons, we have to throw out the years they underperformed due to age or lack thereof. I say we measure players by their greatest moments, greatest performances, greatest single seasons, and have done.

Also, does anyone know of any research that supports or debunks the idea of injury-proneness? Is it just dumb luck?
Man of Steele says:

August 19, 2011 at 11:29 am

I think we have to balance peak performance with longevity. The problem with relying entirely on peak performance is that it is almost impossible to delineate. Is 5 great years anough? Is 3? what about 1 great year? Greg Oden has played 82 games (= 1 season) at star level; does that make him a star center?

Tracy McGrady, Andris Biedrins, Shawn Kemp, and Carlos Boozer all had 3 top-notch seasons. Is it really fair to say that they are better than Dale Davis or Avery Johnson? (This example is of course anecdotal, but so is the whole “top X players of all time” exercise).
greyv says:

August 19, 2011 at 2:08 pm

I’m firmly in the “one shining moment” camp. Especially for a game that thrives on highlight reels and video montages. I feel like the longevity argument is a lot like the number of titles argument. Wen want longevity to imply greatness, but it doesn’t. We want titles won to define greatness, but it fails. Adam Morrison has more titles than Charles Barkley. Kwame Brown has been in the league a decade; that doesn’t make him a better center than Oden.

If allowed to compare apples and oranges, I would definitely take the best season of Anfernee Hardaway, Grant Hill, or T-Mac over any number of seasons from Barry brothers or Collins twins,
Devin Dignam says:

August 19, 2011 at 2:12 pm

What I liked about Hill is that he managed to come back and play some seasons where he produced 10+ wins. So, even after 5 years of injuries (or whatever ridiculous amount of time it was) he managed to come back and be quite productive, despite having to modify his game. That, coupled with the greatness shown above, means he’s on my list.
mosiplatt says:

August 19, 2011 at 4:48 pm

This is nonsense, but Dre knew that before he posted it.

1st piece of nonsense: There’s a big difference between their injuries. Wade got hurt by crashing into other players & the floor. Hill got hurt because his ankles were as fundamentally flawed as Bill Walton’s feet. The doctors told him after his 2nd operation that HE WAS DESTINED TO BREAK HIS ANKLES PLAYING 82 GAMES OF BASKETBALL. Doctors also told Walton that he should have never played basketball w/ his defective feet. Hill couldn’t return to the game until his doctors built him new ankles. That wasn’t the case for Wade. His doctors simply repaired his knee & shoulder, not replace them. Wade was born to be great. Hill was not.

2nd piece of nonsense: Different decisions? Really? Funny how Dre completely ignored the fact that Hill left a playoff team in Detroit to play w/ Tim Duncan in ORL & “settled” for Tracy McGrady. It would’ve been a great decision if Hill’s INHERENTLY DEFECTIVE ANKLE hadn’t broke in the playoffs against the MIAMI HEAT (I LOVE irony)!

Wade vs. Hill is a great example of why longevity matters. Greatness in the NBA is Only Built 4 Cuban Linx… And Grant Hill wasn’t built for greatness.

As for the article, I expect this type of nonsense from the Dead Basketball Poets Society but not the WoW Journal. I’m disappointed in you, Dre. You can do better.
LuckyLeft says:

August 19, 2011 at 5:26 pm

I remember that there was a time when Dwyane Wade was compared to Penny Hardaway during those seasons when he played c. 50 games. A good amount of people wondered if he would ever recover from those injuries, and I was one of those people who thought that, too…

Then his 2008-09 season came along, and that thought left my brain, and will never come back….

I also think Wade has been the best 2-Guard for a while now (3 years), but some think that he’s better than Kobe overall, and I’ll have to do some research before I come to that assessment….

@Mosiplatt
Either you love Dwyane or despise Grant, if not both. What does how they were injured have to do with anything. The fact is they were/are labeled as injury prone. And we never will know how good McGrady/Hill could have been because of his injures. If all goes well in the future, Wade will far surpass Hill in NBA lore, especially since he has a title…
Dre says:

August 19, 2011 at 5:30 pm

~~Mosie~~Mosi(What I get for using auto-complete), I got time this weekend. Want to podcast about this?
mosiplatt says:

August 19, 2011 at 5:53 pm

@LuckyLeft:

I have no beef w/ Grant Hill. It’s not HOW they were injured that matters, it’s WHY they were injured. Hill was injured because it was inevitable that the ankles he was born with would break from playing NBA basketball. Wade was injured because of the way he played. The difference in their injuries is why Wade was able to bounce back to his pre-injury levels and Hill wasn’t.

@Dre:

I’m out of town for a wedding all weekend and won’t have time to podcast.
Man of Steele says:

August 19, 2011 at 9:59 pm

Well, Grant Hill works fine for evidence on one side, but there have been other players who were injured because of how they played who lost productivity as a result (I’m thinking Allen Iverson, maybe Pryzbilla), as well as players who were injured due to physical disposition who still went on to have productive careers (Sabonis, Larry Bird, McDyess). I do generally agree with Mosi’s point, though. My evaluation on this case: Dre is correct that Wade’s case is no stronger than Hill’s is correct *for now*. If Mosi is correct and Wade continues to be healthy and productive, he will far outstrip Hill (and Kobe, more than likely).
mosiplatt says:

August 20, 2011 at 7:23 am

@Man Of Steele:

The problem w/ Dre’s premise is that Hill has played 6 seasons that match Wade’s 8. Hill was fundamentally flawed physically and therefore not comparable to Wade. In the 4 years Hill struggled w/ ankle injuries he played around 1900 minutes. Wade played 1900 minutes BOTH seasons he was injured and came back a more productive player.

The other problem w/ the article is Dre’s mis-characterization of Wade being favored because he has a ring and got to play with great players. And we’re all supposed to ignore that Hill chose to play with McGrady, Nash & Amare? It’s nonsense. Complete and utter nonsense.
LuckyLeft says:

August 20, 2011 at 10:10 am

@Mosiplatt

Can you think of anyone else who could compare to Wade’s first eight seasons better than Hill? I can’t….at the moment…..

@Man of Steele
Ironic you mention Iverson’s name, since that’s the guy that certain people Wade thought he emulated early in his career. When “The Flash” moniker was used often…..
LuckyLeft says:

August 20, 2011 at 10:11 am

*emulated his game after….
Grant Hill is NO Dwyane Wade « Wages of Wins Journal says:

August 21, 2011 at 12:37 am

[...] co-editor Dre did not think it was quite that clear cut. He compared Dwyane Wade and Grant Hill (another player we included on the list). His conclusion? Neither had done quite enough . . . [...]
Why Kobe is an All-Time Great, Wade is not yet, and Iguodala might be someday « Wages of Wins Journal says:

August 22, 2011 at 9:11 am

[...] all-time list should by definition be exclusive. Wade doesn’t belong on it, not yet at least. A great player should be defined by their legacy. Looking at a player’s prime is a good [...]

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Greatest of All Time?

Early Careers

The Difference in Decisions

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