Grant Hill is NO Dwyane Wade

Arturo Galletti is the Co-editor and Director of Analytics for the Wages of Wins Network. He is an Electrical Engineer with General Electric in the lovely isle of Puerto Rico, where he keeps his production lines running by day and night (and weekends) and works on sport analysis with his free time.

After all, the earth moves around the sun – isn’t it best to turn the other cheek? Does it make any difference whether the earth is standing still or moving around the sun? We can expect conflict again. Science is developing and new things will be found out which will he in disagreement with the present‑day metaphysical theory of certain religions.
– From “The Relation of Science and Religion” a transcript of a talk given by Dr. Feynman at the Caltech YMCA Lunch Forum on May 2, 1956.

One of the really fun parts of the Wages of Wins network is how often we disagree. We are not a homogeneous community but rather a diverse group of individuals who all bring our unique viewpoints to the table. We tend to spend long hours arguing over a lot of details and the specifics of the work we do. Generally, this ability to challenge and question ourselves leads us to better models and answers.

It makes for great copy as well.

Case in point, last weekend Mosi, Devin and myself argued over updating the NBA top 50 on our weekend podcast. After arbitration (by yours truly), the WoW Network’s 50 Greatest NBA Players of All-Time were (in no particular order, with changes to the NBA’s original list marked by an asterisk):

Now I made some interesting calls in that post. Particularly as related to including modern and active players on the list based on their achievements so far. The final one was to include Dwayne Wade as one of the greatest 50 NBA players based on his career thus far. I believe this was clearly the correct call and I found general agreement from my podcast partners. (Editor Dre’s Note: two out of three aint bad but Devin didn’t agree)

All time greats?

My co-editor Dre did not think it was quite that clear cut. He compared Dwyane Wade and Grant Hill (another player we included on the list). His conclusion? Neither had done quite enough . . . yet.

Is he right? Let’s examine the numbers (as a poster of course):

The poster was prepared by looking at every player’s career from 1978 to 2011, and doing a composite ranking using total wins produced and wins produced per 48 minutes for all players with at least 8000 minutes played. The poster then shows the top 100 players. Dwayne Wade sits at number 39 overall, 13 amongst all guards and 12th the amongst all active players in this ranking. Grant Hill does not quite come out as well (68th overall, 31st amongst forwards and 23rd amongst active players).

Given that there are 20 eligible and worthy players from before 1978 (full or partial career), Grant Hill is a no-go.

Good but not Great

Dwayne Wade is an interesting case though. If I hold that there should be thirty slots for modern players then he also sits just outside of consideration range. But that’s not really comparing apples to apples.

Dwyane Wade has played in the NBA from the ages of 22 to 29 and if I compare him to players from 1978 onward in that age range he comes out 24th overall and 10th amongst guards. By those numbers, I am very much willing to give him a pass onto the NBA top 50 on one of the modern player slots.

The more interesting point to me is that Shawn Marion, Dwight Howard and Chris Paul (17, 18 and 24 on the career list for modern players) clearly deserve to be considered for the top 50 as well. Who might need to go?

Don't look at me like that

We may just need another podcast.

-Arturo

Editor Dre’s Note: This isn’t over!

Devin Dignam says:

August 21, 2011 at 10:51 am

Nah, sorry, but this won’t do. Chris Paul and Fat Lever deserve to be top 50 ahead of Wade according to this method (at least, from ages 22-29), and while both players were/have been great, Lever was Grant Hill lite and Paul has played only a couple of seasons. Paul will get on the list, but not yet.

Not buying it. I prefer Dre’s take on this (neither make it on the list) than your and Mosi’s recency effect influenced version.

Man of Steele says:

August 21, 2011 at 12:38 pm

Lever deserves to be on the list period. Also, Shawn Marion is easily the best guy not on the list. That’s the dogmatic affirmations; as for the logic, I can’t help noticing that Shawn Kemp is right below Wade on the 22-29 list, which I guess goes to show that you never really know how a player’s career will turn out until it’s over. My argument for Marion is basically identical to the one Arturo used in favor of Grant Hill in the podcast: how many elite SFs have there been? If we can agree that the list probably shouldn’t be entirely point guards and big men, who should be on the list among modern small forwards? Everyone agrees on Bird, LeBron, and Pippen, but Marion’s numbers are very similar to Pippen’s. Paul Pierce is a weaker candidate than Marion, and Nate McMillan’s career probably wasn’t long enough. So either only 3 of the 30 modern greats were swingmen, or we need to reconsider Marion (and probably McMiIllan and Larry Nance too). Thanks for the post, Aruturo!

Andy Momplaisir says:

August 21, 2011 at 4:24 pm

I don’t see how Wade is in, but Chris Paul (came in a year later, but is better) isn’t on the list. He’ll be in there eventually though, so it’s all good.

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LuckyLeft says:

August 22, 2011 at 12:35 pm

Respect for Ben Wallace as a top 50 player?
And respect for Marion (who was snubbed from All-NBA and All-Defensive teams) and Fat Lever?

I really am going to like this site….

Yes, Paul and Howard deserve slots as well, but I’m wondering who would be replaced? Mutombo? Reed perhaps? Big Ben? I can’t say, but I do like this list…..

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