Daily Archives: August 31, 2011

FIBA U19 WC: Team Summaries II

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Devin Dignam (of NBeh? “fame”) is the Toronto Raptors writer for the Wages of Wins Network. His background with the Raptors gives him unique insight into many areas including the draft, overpaid players and overrated players.

The FIBA U19 World Championships took place from June 30th to July 10th, but it has taken me until now to compile all 62 box scores and calculate the Estimated Wins Produced numbers. Over the next week or two, I’ll be writing several posts about this tournament that focus on familiar Wages of Wins themes.

Team Summaries (Part II)

Last time I started off with the three bottom ranked teams – Tunisia, Korea, and Taiwan. Today I’ll be following up with China, Egypt, and Canada.

13. China

Record: 2-3
EWP: 3.29
EWP40: 0.125

China's MVP: Ailun Guo

Despite placing 13th, China played like a good team. In five games China amassed 3.29 wins, 10th amongst all teams (and remember, that was done in only five games). If we rank all the teams by EWP40, China looks even better: by that measure, they rank 6th. Why the disparity between their rank, record, and stats? China was in a pool with two strong teams: the US and Serbia. They barely lost to Serbia (5 points) and were soundly beaten by the US (16 points). In order to advance, China had to beat Egypt…and unfortunately for them, they lost a close game (4 points). Following this, China beat Korea (18 points) and then in a battle of the Chinas blew out Taiwan (43 points). The relatively close losses to Serbia and Egypt, combined with the large wins over Korea and Taiwan, means that China was a better team than their record showed. Only three players on the team produced in the negative range: Xuhang Zhu, Pu Wang, and Hanchen Luo. Four players managed EWP40s above 0.200: Tonglin Sun, Ailun Guo, Quan Gu, and Zhelin Wang. The MVP of the team was Guo, who produced 0.77 wins. The LVP of the team was Zhu, who produced -0.23 wins. The best performance in a single game was by Guo, who produced an estimated 0.52 wins. The worst performance in a single game was by Zirui Wang, who produced an estimated -0.24 wins.

Player

Position

EWP40

EWP

H. LUO

G

-0.012

-0.02

ZI. WANG

G

0.072

0.22

A. GUO

G

0.227

0.77

P. WANG

G/F

-0.060

-0.03

M. JU

G/F

0.080

0.29

Q. GU

F

0.221

0.25

X. ZHAI

F

0.142

0.52

X. ZHU

F/C

-0.237

-0.23

T. SUN

F/C

0.297

0.74

T. XU

F

0.059

0.03

ZH. WANG

F/C

0.211

0.61

M. LI

C

0.058

 0.15

12. Egypt

Record: 1-7
EWP: -0.18
EWP40: -0.004

Egypt's MVP: Ezz Ahmed

By virtue of the upset win over China Egypt advanced into the second round and played a total of eight games. Unfortunately for them, they only managed the one win. The silver lining is that they still finished ahead of China, but Egypt really did not play well. They were blown out by the US (55 points) and Serbia (18 points) in round one, lost to Croatia (2 points), Canada (20 points), and Lithuania (19 points) in round two, and lost to Brazil (14 points) and Canada (5 points) in the final round. Ranked by Estimated Wins and EWP40, Egypt falls to 14th in the standings. Only five players on the team produced in the positive range, with only one player – Ezz Ahmed – finishing with a EWP40 above 0.200. Ahmed finished as the team’s MVP, with an estimated 1.04 wins produced, while Ahmed Mostafa had the fewest estimated wins produced, with -1.04. The best performance in a single game was by Omar Mohamed, who managed half a win – an estimated 0.50 wins – in the close loss to Croatia. The worst performance in a single game was by Ahmed Gamal, who produced an estimated -0.26 wins.

Player

Position

EWP40

EWP

A. MOSTAFA

-0.309

-1.04

O. MOHAMED

0.000

0.00

M. ELMOATAZ

-0.057

-0.05

H. HOSSAM

-0.022

-0.04

M. HANY

-0.031

-0.12

E. AHMED

0.213

1.04

S. SAMIR

-0.090

-0.30

A. GAMAL

-0.196

-0.56

Y. SHOUSHA

0.004

0.01

M. MOHAMED

0.162

0.41

Z. MOHAMED

-0.106

-0.34

A. AHMED

0.133

 0.83

11. Canada

Record: 3-5
EWP: 2.44
EWP40: 0.061

Canada's MVP: Dyshawn Pierre

Despite a close loss to Serbia (4 points) and a blowout loss to powerhouse Lithuania (43 points), Canada beat Korea (13 points) to advance to the second round. In the second round they lost handily to the US (29 points) and Serbia (21 points), but beat Egypt (20 points). In the final round they lost a close game to Latvia (3 points) – a game in which they actually outplayed Latvia – and then beat Egypt once again (5 points) to sew up 11th place. Overall, the team finished ranked 12th by Estimated Wins and EWP40. Half of the twelve players on the team finished with positive win totals – led by team MVP and WoW All-tournament team member Dyshawn Pierre, who finished with an estimated 1.74 wins and a EWP40 of 0.313 – and half of the team finished in the red, “led” by Julian Clarke, who finished with an estimated -0.76 wins and a EWP40 of -0.167. The best performance in a single game was by Pierre, who managed 0.58 wins. The worst performance in a single game was by Clarke, who produced an estimated -0.26 wins.

Player

Position

EWP40

EWP

K. PANGOS

G

0.203

1.29

J. CLARKE

G/F

-0.167

-0.76

S. BHULLAR

C

0.161

0.47

M. LETKEMAN

F/C

-0.194

-0.37

J. LOMOMBA

G/F

-0.064

-0.27

O. HANLAN

G

0.119

0.52

D. PIERRE

F/C

0.313

1.74

P. SCRUBB

G/F

-0.172

-0.56

N. WEBSTER-CHAN

F/C

-0.228

-0.08

J. SHAVER

F/C

0.148

0.50

B. BUNCE

C

0.126

0.14

S. JANKOVIC

C

-0.097

-0.18

Profiled so far:

Rank Team Record EWP40 EWP
16 Tunisia 0-5 -0.072 -1.80
15 Korea 2-3 -0.004 -0.10
14 Taiwan 1-4 -0.025 0.63
13 China 2-3 0.125 3.29
12 Egypt 1-7 -0.004 -0.18
11 Canada 3-5 0.061 2.44
- Devin

Author’s note: You’ve probably noticed that I refer to “Estimated Wins Produced” in this article. Estimated Wins Produced are slightly less accurate, but easier to calculate than “regular” Wins Produced. To calculate Estimated Wins Produced, take a player’s Win Score per minute and adjust it for position played. From there, PAWSmin is plugged into a formula to determine Estimated WP40.

NBA Players that Peaked Late

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There are two general truths about NBA players:

  • they hit their peak around age 25 (it’s increased to 26 thanks in part to better training and medical treatments)
  • and after age 30 their production tends to decline.

There is a special breed of player though that waits until after their 30th birthday to finally hit their peak. Given the fact that many 30 year old players get very good contracts, we might expect this number to be high. The truth, though, is that this type of player is very rare.

I looked for players that put up a peak season that was also what I call a “stat season” (WP > 10.0) in their thirties, and could only come up with twelve names.

Table 1: Players with a peak (Adjusted Production > 5.0) after age 30 ordered alphabetically
Player Peak Age Peak WP Peak WP48 Pre-30 Peak Age Pre-30 Peak WP Pre-30 Peak WP48
Brent Barry 30 19.9 0.314 28 11.5 0.203
Darrell Armstrong 30 14.3* 0.279 29 4.2 0.162
Dennis Rodman 30 33.1 0.481 29 19.4 0.392
Dominique Wilkins 31 17.0 0.265 26 11.2 0.176
Donyell Marshall 30 15.7 0.252 29 9.9 0.2
Gary Payton 31 20.4 0.287 29 16.9 0.258
Jon Barry 32 10.8 0.261 29 6.9* 0.277
Kurt Rambis 31 12.2 0.262 25 7.6 0.202
Marcus Camby 34 19.0 0.332 27 16.4 0.37
P.J. Brown 33 14.1 0.26 27 8.1 0.15
Robert Parish 35 21.3 0.36 29 15.9 0.311
Steve Nash 33 19.0 0.34 28 10.8 0.183

Here’s a brief rundown of each player. I’ve ordered them by biggest jump to smallest jump.

Dennis Rodman

Detroit Greats.

The Worm was a great player that wasn’t really given many minutes in his youth. Once he started getting minutes, he produced wins in large quantities. His 1992 season saw a perfect storm, as he produced his best per-minute numbers, while also hitting 3,000 minutes for the first and only time in his career.

Darrell Armstrong

Magical!

In Darrell’s case, his peak season had more to do with opportunity. It wasn’t until 1999 when he was given real “starters” minutes (despite starting only 15 games). He played well for a few more seasons before falling off at age 36.

Brent Barry

Dunk First, be productive later.

Brent Barry was an average to good player that was given limited minutes in Los Angeles (despite being an awesome dunker). When he reached Seattle he was given minutes and played like a star. in 2002 he had a monster year and saw a rare spike right at age 30. Maybe there’s something in the water in Seattle.

Steve Nash

Steve Nash defied expectations by becoming a star player in spite of a rocky start. He defied expectations yet again by peaking well after age 30. It’s hard not to be impressed with our Canadian star, who seems to exist to make ultra-rare lists.

P.J. Brown

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P.J never once hit 10 wins before his 30th birthday. He then somehow managed to improve every year until his 33rd birthday. Unfortunately he just missed out on Chris Paul‘s peak and a chance at being part of a great team.

Dominique Wilkins

The Human Highlight Reel was never that great of a player (at least, his production never matched his reputation). He managed to hit one year, though, where he played at a star level in his early 30s. That seemed to be enough, as he ended up in the Hall of Fame in 06.

Donyell Marshall

Donyell Marshall had been a good player most of his career. His raw productivity saw a massive jump when he played up north briefly. He didn’t stick around, which turned out to be a good thing for Toronto as his productivity fell shortly thereafter.

Robert Parish

By the time 1989 rolled around Robert Parish had nothing left to prove. He’d already been an MVP candidate playing next to Bird (at least, MVP in a Wins Produced sense). Somehow the Chief found a way to take it to the next level and add to an already great legacy.

Kurt Rambis

Rambis was an underrated player for much of his career. Despite being very productive on the Lakers he didn’t see much playing time. He signed as a free agent with Charlotte just in time to get the minutes to have a career season. After that he succumbed to the post-30 decline.

Jon Barry

Despite being a very productive player most of his career, the other Barry brother never saw much playing time. In the only season he came close to sniffing 2,000 minutes he put up a star season. He played productively for a few more seasons but never saw the minutes for it to really matter.

Gary Payton

Like Steve Nash the Glove was not very productive early in his career. He still managed to string together ten consecutive star seasons, which had a monster year of 2000 in the middle. Payton was definitely a patient player in accomplishments, including his title with Miami.

Marcus Camby

Last but not least on our list is the greatest Nugget of all time himself: Marcus Camby. Camby had in fact been a great player before 2008, but had never played the minutes. This was in part due to injury (and in part due to playing behind Patrick Ewing). When Camby managed to stay healthy he was rewarded with a killer season, defensive player of the year honors, and then was traded for nothing immediately afterwards.

Summing Up

Most of these players are surprising in that they saw a massive increase in their per minute production. Only Camby and Barry, who both got low minutes for various reasons buck this trend. The tendency for a player that hits 30 is to slowly diminish in quality. All of these players broke that mold. The takeaway is of course that there’s hope for any player after 30.  But given the short list above, not much hope.

-Dre