Monthly Archives: August 2011

FIBA U19 WC: Team Summaries I

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Devin Dignam (of NBeh? “fame”) is the Toronto Raptors writer for the Wages of Wins Network. His background with the Raptors gives him unique insight into many areas including the draft, overpaid players and overrated players.

The FIBA U19 World Championships took place from June 30th to July 10th, but it has taken me until now to compile all 62 box scores and calculate the Estimated Wins Produced numbers. Over the next week or two, I’ll be writing several posts about this tournament that focus on familiar Wages of Wins themes.

Team Summaries (Part I)

Starting with the bottom, I’ll be posting short summaries of each team that participated in the tournament. In this installment I’ll be looking at renowned basketball powerhouses Tunisia, Korea, and Taiwan.

#16: Tunisia

Record: 0-5
EWP: -1.80
EWP40: -0.072

Tunisia finished 16th in the tournament – dead last – and without a single win. Their closest loss – to the 15th placed team, Korea – was by 6 points, and followed losses of 11, 20, 22, and 41 points. The team played so poorly that its Estimated Wins Produced were significantly negative after only five games. Only four players on the team posted a positive EWP40, and only one player, Sofian M’Rad, bested the average EWP40 mark of 0.100 (although Hamdi Karoui was very close). The best performer on the team was M’Rad, who produced an estimated 0.39 wins. The worst performer on the team was Aymen Mahmoud, who produced an estimated -0.60 wins. The best performance in a single game was by M’Rad, with 0.45 EWP, and the worst performance in a single game was by Maher Souabni, with -0.33 EWP.

Player

Position

EWP40

EWP

O. ABADA

G

-0.230

-0.59

F. HEMDANI

F/C

-0.708

-0.28

B. SADDADI

F/C

-0.135

-0.25

L. ROUDESLI

G

0.032

0.06

S. M’RAD

F

0.101

0.39

M. SOUABNI

G

-0.035

-0.13

M. AMMAR

F

-0.335

-0.04

A. MAHMOUD

G/F

-0.304

-0.60

Y. MEJRI

F/C

-0.117

-0.26

M. FARJALLAH

F

-0.119

-0.33

A. MANAI

C

0.054

0.15

H. KAROUI

G

0.098

0.09

Tunisia's MVP: Sofian M'Rad

15: Korea

Record: 2-3
EWP: -0.10
EWP40: -0.004

Despite a 2-3 record, Korea finished 15th (out of 16) in the tournament. Their two wins were over the aforementioned Tunisia (6 pts) and an upset over Croatia (4 pts), who finished 8th. However, because the team finished ranked 13th in Estimated Wins, their record is somewhat deceiving. Half the team posted positive EWP40s, with two players – Seungwook Choi and Sanghyeok Han – above 0.200. The best performer on the team was Dong Yeop Lee, who produced an estimated 0.47 wins. The worst performer on the team was Seounghyun Lee, who produced an estimated -0.66 wins. The best performance in a single game was by Giyun Kim, with 0.41 EWP, and the worst performance in a single game was by Seounghyun Lee, with -0.58 EWP.

Player

Position

EWP40

EWP

J. LEE

G

-0.743

-0.09

S. CHOI

F

0.230

0.19

S. HAN

G

0.203

0.40

G. KIM

G

0.081

0.33

U. HEO

G

0.113

0.18

S. MOON

G/F

-0.066

-0.15

S. LEE

C

-0.208

-0.66

D. LEE

G/F

0.179

0.47

H. KIM

G/F

-0.191

-0.45

M. KIM

F/C

0.016

0.04

H. HAN

F

-0.878

-0.26

J. KIM

F/C

-0.030

-0.10

Korea's MVP: Dong Yeop Lee

14: Chinese Taipei (Taiwan)

Record: 1-4
EWP: -0.63
EWP40: -0.025

Taiwan finished 14th in the tournament. Their lone win was an 11 point win over last place Tunisia. The team’s play was mostly in-line with their record, as Korea finished with the second fewest Estimated Wins. Five players posted positive EWP40s, with two players – Shih-En Fan and Ying-Chun Chen- above 0.200. The best performer on the team was Chen, who produced an estimated 0.85 wins. The worst performer on the team was Wei-Ju Chien, who produced an estimated -0.39 wins. The best performance in a single game was also by Chen, with 0.66 EWP, and the worst performance in a single game was also by Chien, with -0.40 EWP.

Player

Position

EWP40

EWP

C. CHIEN

G

-0.206

-0.39

C. LI

C

-0.277

-0.36

P. HUANG

G

0.010

0.03

C. YU

G/F

0.006

0.01

S. FAN

C

0.269

0.40

Y. CHEN

G

0.224

0.85

L. HU

F/C

-0.153

-0.26

T. CHENG

G/F

-0.185

-0.36

W. CHIEN

G/F

-0.182

-0.39

K. HUNG

F

-0.081

-0.30

C. LIN

C

-0.662

-0.10

K. CHEN

F/C

0.147

0.23

Korea's MVP: Ying-Chun Chen

 - Devin
*Author’s note: You’ve probably noticed that I refer to “Estimated Wins Produced” in this article. Estimated Wins Produced are slightly less accurate, but easier to calculate than “regular” Wins Produced. To calculate Estimated Wins Produced, take a player’s Win Score per minute and adjust it for position played. From there, PAWSmin is plugged into a formula to determine Estimated WP40.

What Are the Worst Contracts in Sports?

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Know this - the Knicks were willing to pay for me.

This is the kind of question that can lead to endless debates.  Nevertheless, Sam Mamudi of MarketWatch offered an answer with Players got the dough but teams and fans get paltry return.

Sam’s choices included Barry Zito in baseball, Eddy Curry in basketball, Javon Walker in football, and Vincent Lecavalier in hockey.

Obviously these are not the only possible choices.  Any other suggestions?

- DJ

P.S. As one can see, I already noted Andrea Bargnani.

Very Late Thursday Bullets

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Henry Abbott – at TrueHoop – typically offers a list of links each day.  But Thursday has just about come and gone (it is gone on the East Coast) and no bullets appeared.  So here are some late Thursday bullets.

  • Let’s begin with what did appear at TrueHoop today.  Henry offered a handy chart describing how the various offers in the NBA lockout negotiations will impact player salaries.  In the discussion, Henry notes that some of what David Stern has said recently about the owners’ offer “is somewhere between splitting hairs and a ruse”.
  • Maurice Evans –  in an interview with Sam Amick of Sports Illustrated – has even stronger words to say about the owners’ offer. One argument the owners make is that they have shared their financial information with the players, and these statements establish the owners’ claims.  From what Evans has to say, the numbers from the owners is not convincing the players.
  • Sticking with Sports Illustrated… Zach Lowe has a very good discussion of why a hard cap bothers the players.   Zach’s discussion quotes several people who provide explanations of the players’ position.
  • Zach Lowe’s article also links to a column by Mike Wise from the Washington Post.  This column notes that the owners have a problem with guaranteed contracts to players like Eddy Curry.  The owners seem to understand that guaranteed money reduces a player’s incentives.   I would note, though, that these same owners say they want a system that will guarantee each team a profit.  So apparently they can see issues with incentives in other people.  For themselves, such issues remain hidden.  Perhaps a post on this issue would be a good idea.
  • Let me close with a non-lockout link.  Alex Konkel (i.e. the Sport Skeptic) has a very interesting post on how long a team who is out of the playoffs has to wait to see the postseason again.  According to Alex, future playoff spots go to teams that are either very good or very bad today.  If your team is in the middle the future is less happy.

- DJ

Seven Lockout Links

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That's not a basketball!

Dave Berri is the General Manager of the Wages of Wins Network.  He is a Professor of Economics at Southern Utah University, lead author of both “The Wages of Wins” and “Stumbling on Wins”, and past president of the North American Association of Sports Economists.

Well, the NBA lockout just goes on and on.  And I am afraid I doubt the lockout is going to end anytime soon.  To keep you amused (entertained? informed?), here are a seven links with some thoughts on our favorite labor dispute.

First, here is a link to my latest for the Huffington Post: How Rich People Ask for More Money.  The post examines the NBA’s competitive balance story and supply-side economics (yes, there is a connection… I think).

My Huffington Post column casts doubt on the NBA owners’ story.  Malcolm Gladwell recently argued that even if some of what the NBA owners say is true (i.e. some owners are losing money), we should not be concerned.  After all, owning an NBA team confers  substantial psychic benefits.   The entire piece is very good.  But the conclusion is well worth repeating:

The big difference between art and sports, of course, is that art collectors are honest about psychic benefits. They do not wake up one day, pretend that looking at a Van Gogh leaves them cold, and demand a $27 million refund from their art dealer. But that is exactly what the NBA owners are doing. They are indulging in the fantasy that what they run are ordinary businesses — when they never were. And they are asking us to believe that these “businesses” lose money. But of course an owner is only losing money if he values the psychic benefits of owning an NBA franchise at zero — and if you value psychic benefits at zero, then you shouldn’t own an NBA franchise in the first place. You should sell your “business” — at what is sure to be a healthy premium — to someone who actually likes basketball.

Jonathan Weiler – at the Huffington Post – agrees with Gladwell’s discussion of psychic benefits.  But even with that argument in hand, Weiler still argues that NBA owners may not be losing as much actual money as they claim.

CBS Sportline has two interesting lock-out related stories.  First, they note that NBA arenas (which were often funded with taxpayer dollars) stand to lose about $1 billion if the lockout cancels the 2011-12 season.  Furthermore, the people operating the arenas – who often are not the NBA teams being hosted – have no place at the bargaining table.  So obviously these costs are not considered by players or owners.

In addition, CBS Sportsline also notes that a recent study argues 22 additional markets could support NBA teams. Should someone say “let’s get a new basketball league”?

Finally, Sports Illustrated has a very interesting story on the New Orleans Hornets.  The NBA now owns this team.  And under the NBA’s direction, the Hornets are thriving.  Yes, even with the lockout this team is seeing revenues expand.  Doesn’t that suggest that maybe the problem NBA teams are having is with poor management? In other words, the players don’t need to accept less. The owners just need to do a better job of managing their respective franchises.

- DJ

Best and Worst Means Something Different for Each NBA Team

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That's not a basketball!

Dave Berri is the General Manager of the Wages of Wins Network.  He is a Professor of Economics at Southern Utah University, lead author of both “The Wages of Wins” and “Stumbling on Wins”, and past president of the North American Association of Sports Economists.

The Difference in Differential

Not all teams are created equal

In my last post I noted that the NBA has not historically had much competitive balance. This is true when you look at each season.  And it is true when you look at franchises over time.  About half of all NBA teams have never won a title.  Furthermore, when we look at regular-season efficiency differential (offensive efficiency minus defensive efficiency) we see that the story of each team’s best and worst is quite different.

For example, consider the Clippers and the Lakers.  Both teams currently play in the same market.  But outcomes for each team have been quite different.  The Clippers best efficiency differential was 1.94.  That happened in 1974-75 when the Clippers were called the Braves and the team played in Buffalo.  Since 1973-74 (the first year we can calculate efficiency differential in the NBA), the Lakers have bested the 1.94 mark of the Braves in 1974-75 in 29 different seasons.  In other words, the Clippers-Braves at their best would be a very bad season for the Lakers.

A similar story can be told about the San Antonio Spurs and Denver Nuggets.  Both teams were originally part of the ABA.  And one of these teams – and yes, it was the Nuggets – was quite successful in the ABA.  More recently, the Spurs have had quite a bit of success.  As for the Nuggets…

The 2011 NBA Season Team Efficiency Differentials

Pat on the back for a season well done.

The following table reports each team’s efficiency differential in 2010-11.  It also reports how that mark ranks in franchise history.  We see in the last two columns where the 2010-11 result ranks when we consider the best seasons first.  We also see – in the last column – how this last season ranks when we consider the worst seasons first.

As one can see, two teams posted all-time best marks in 2010-11.  The Miami Heat didn’t quite do everything their fans hoped for last year.  But the Heat did lead the NBA in efficiency differential in the regular season.   And the mark posted by the Heat this past season was the best mark in franchise history.  So in that sense, the acquisition of LeBron James and Chris Bosh paid off.

The other team to set a franchise record for efficiency differential was the Denver Nuggets.  Denver’s efficiency differential when Carmelo Anthony was traded was only 2.46.   So the Nuggets managed to set their franchise record because of how the team played without Melo.

One should note – and those familiar with Denver’s history would know this — that the Nuggets did post a better efficiency differential the last two seasons the team played in the ABA.  And at that time – judging by the performance of ABA and NBA teams in exhibition games – the ABA was at least as good as the NBA.  From 1973 to 1975, the ABA and NBA played 96 exhibition games and the ABA team prevailed 62 times.

Once Denver came to the NBA, though, the Nuggets generally struggled.  To put that struggle in perspective, Denver best efficiency differential in the NBA (again, seen in 2010-11) was bested by the Spurs 15 times since 1976, including during this past season.

The Best of Each Team

Surprised?

Once again, each franchise at its best is not at the same level.  To see this point, consider the best marks of each franchise since 1973-74 (see below).

A few items stand out from this list.

  • Only 13 teams led the NBA in efficiency differential the same year where the team posted the franchise best mark.
  • Ten franchises have never reached the 6.0 mark.  In 2010-11, four teams – the Heat, Lakers, Spurs, and Bulls – reached the 6.0 mark.  What we saw from the Bulls, Spurs, and Lakers in 2010-11 did not rank near the best mark of these franchises.  In fact, both the Spurs and Lakers have surpassed the 6.0 mark at least 10 times.
  • Like the Nuggets, the Nets posted better marks in the ABA.  Specifically, in 1974-75 the Nets posted a 7.1 differential.  The Nets also won the last ABA title in 1976.  Soon after, though, the Nets sent Dr. J. to the Sixers and the Nets have never been as good again.

The Worst of Each Team

Worst of the worst.

In closing, let me post one last table.  Here are the worst teams in the history of each franchise.  No team posted their franchise worst mark in 2010-11.  Washington, Cleveland, and Charlotte posted their second worst mark this past season.

When we look at this last table we see that the Lakers and Suns – at their worst – are not nearly as bad as other franchises respective low points.  Both of these franchises have posted their worst differential at a level better than -5.00.  Surprisingly, a similar story can be told about the Charlotte Bobcats.   In sum, Charlotte has never been that good.  But so far, the Bobcats have not been as horrible as other franchises. I’m not sure that is much to get excited about.  However, it does sound like something for MJ’s team.

- DJ