Monthly Archives: September 2011

Wages of Wins 3 on 3 Draft Round 4

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On the Miami Heat Podcast Mosi Platt and Alfredo Artuaga brought up a great idea. If the NBA players put on a 3 on 3 tournament in a great venue such as Las Vegas who wouldn’t want to watch? Mosi even did a rundown of how the best three person combos on each team looked. With no NBA to watch the Wages of Wins Network decided it would be a lot of fun to draft three person teams (and one alternate) using a snake draft. We’ll be posting the results the next couple of days. Here are our contestants

  • Greg Steele, our Houston Rockets experts, has the 1st, 12th, 13th and 24th picks
  • James Brocato of Shut Up and Jam (a Seattle Supersonics/Oklahoma City Thunder blog) has the 2nd, 11th, 14th and 23rd picks
  • Patrick Minton of The NBA Geek (a Timberwolves blog) has the 3rd, 10th, 15th and 22nd picks
  • Arturo Galletti, co-editor of the Wages of Wins and head writer at Arturo’s Silly Little Stats has the 4th,9th, 16th and 21st picks
  • Ben Gulker of Pistons by the Numbers has the 5th, 8th, 17th and 20th picks
  • Devin Dignam of NBeh? (a Toronto Raptors blog) has the 6th, 7th, 18th and 19th picks.

Each contestant kindly added a few words explaining their pick. In case you missed it you can find the first two rounds here: Round 1 and Round 2. With that let’s get on to the next round!

Round 4

1) With the 19th pick Devin selects Kevin Garnett

My second pick is Kevin Garnett (that sound you just heard? Arturo). Like Odom, Garnett is very flexible. defensively, he can cover every position. Offensively, Garnett can even handle the ball if he has to; I distinctly remember him bringing the ball up the court on a regular basis when he played in Minnesota. And while Garnett can’t shoot the three, he certainly has some range (check out his Hoopdata splits).

2) With the 20th pick Ben selects Kobe Bryant

Because I am devaluing Wins Produced numbers because I believe 3-on-3 basketball is fundamentally different from NBA basketball, I’m going to pick a player that WP proponents typically run away from: Kobe Bryant. As wildly overrated as Kobe is, he’s still among the most potent offensive options on the perimeter. And in a structure where help defense will be mostly non-existent, I’ll take Kobe as my fourth many any day.

3) With the 21st pick Arturo selects Jason Kidd

You know that old guy in your pickup court who knows every dirty trick in the book, fouls you on every play yet never gets called for anything, gets all the cheap rebounds and makes you pay for leaving him open from long range? Jason Kidd is that guy.

4) With the 22nd pick Patrick selects Landry Fields

I’ll take Landry Fields.  More rebounding, height, solid defense, and he’s my worst 3pt shot at .390 lol. He’ll be a great sub for Dunleavey when I need more toughness.

5) With the 23rd pick James selects Andrei Kirilenko

With my final pick, I’m going to go with Andrei Kirilenko. He’s a quick, long, aggressive defender, able to defend virtually every position. He is also a very good three point shooter. With Kirilenko, I can go with a number of different lineups, and I believe I have the personnel to match up with just about any team and create nightmare matchups for opposing defenses.

6) With the 24th pick Greg selects Stephen Curry

Okey dokey, here goes he final pick of the draft: Steph Curry. In a
draft where Ray Allen went in the top 12, it seems that Curry should
be in the top 24; he can do at least everything Ray can do, and pass a
bit better besides. Curry gives me the flexibility to shift between a
3-pt (2-pt) lineup of Curry, Ginobili, Love and a slashing lineup of
Ginobili, Smith, Love. To my mind, Curry is about the best long-range
shooter around, though he does give me another mediocre defender. I
think in a 3-on-3 league, the 2-pt. lineup would difficult to stop
with Curry and Love running the pick-n-pop or pick-n-roll, but would
need good defense from Manu and Josh Smith in order to supplement
Curry and Love.

We had a ton of fun with this and we may have a few more posts coming on the subject! Any surprises or bets on which team wins?

-Dre

The “Top Performers” of Eurobasket 2011

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Something that FIBA Europe did for each game during the Eurobasket was to assign a “top performer” from each team. I thought it would be interesting to take a look at these players and see if I could spot any trends in how they were determined.

Take a look at the following graph:

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Almost three quarters of the players who were designated as “top performers” by FIBA Europe led their team in Win Score, whereas only about two thirds led their team in points scored, and even fewer “top performers” led their team in Estimated Wins Produced. For interest’s sake, I also took a quick look at rebounding to get a better feel for the other categories. As you can see, rebounding is not nearly as important in determining the “top performer” as the other three statistics.

What does it mean? It means that people are starting to realize that there’s more to productivity than just scoring. If FIBA Europe valued scoring more than overall productivity, “top performers” would have led their team in points more often than in Win Score. But the opposite is the case.

We can also look at the data another way:

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Here we see the more complicated breakdown. One third of all “top performers”  led their team in Win Score, Estimated Wins, and points. About one quarter of “top performers” led their team in Win Score and Estimated Wins, but not points. Fourteen percent of “top performers” led their teams in points, but not Win Score or Estimated Wins. Thirteen percent led their teams in Win Score and points; six percent led their team in none of the three categories, as well as both Estimated Wins and points; four percent led their teams in only Win Score; and not a single “top performer” led his team solely in Estimated Wins.

Why is Win Score a better indicator of a “top performer” than Estimated Wins? To make a long story short: Win Score is a more obvious outcome than Estimated Wins. Estimated Wins are calculated on a game-by-game basis, using the average Position Adjusted Win Score per minute (PAWSmin). In some cases, this means that players with high Win Scores see their Estimated Wins suffer, because their counterpart opponents also played well. Similarly, in some cases players with lower Win Scores end up with higher Estimated Wins because their counterpart opponents played poorly. This makes total sense, by the way – in a game where every point guard is going nuts, the most productive point guard really has to outdo everyone to make a difference. In the same vein, in a game where every point guard is playing poorly, it doesn’t take much to be considered a very productive point guard.

So again we must ask the question: why, if FIBA Europe is generally more impressed by Win Score over points, did they award Juan Carlos Navarro the MVP over Pau Gasol? For starters, FIBA isn’t perfect. For example, about six percent of the “top performers” didn’t lead their teams in Win Score, Estimated Wins, or points. Second of all, the player with the highest Win Score still failed to be awarded the “top performer” honour one out of every four times.

Even still…I’m not going to let this one go: Pau Gasol was robbed.

- Devin

Devin Dignam (of NBeh? “fame”) is the Toronto Raptors writer for the Wages of Wins Network. His background with the Raptors gives him unique insight into many areas including the draft, overpaid players and overrated players.

NFL Week 3: Ray Rice, Eli Manning & Buffalo Bills Brought the Earth, Wind & Fire

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The most productive running back and quarterback were Ray Rice and Eli Manning in NFL Week 3 action, but Montario Hardesty and Fred Jackson fueled the most exciting games of the weekend.The NBA Lockout has forced me to start writing a new series of posts for the Wages of Wins Journal: Earth, Wind & Fire. I’ll highlight the most productive running backs and quarterbacks, as well as the most exciting games each week of the NFL season.The metrics for this series will be RB and QB Score for players.

QB Score = Yards – 3*Plays – 30*All turnovers

RB Score = Yards – 3*Plays – 30*Fumbles Lost

Advanced NFL Stats’ Excitement Index and NFL.com’s fan ratings will be used to identify the most exciting games.

Let’s get started…

Earth: Best NFL RBs in Week 3

Rice edged LaDainian Tomlinson by one point for the top RB Score in Week 3 with 164 total yards on 14 plays with no fumbles against the St. Louis Rams. After three weeks, the Rams defense has allowed opponents to put up the highest rushing score in the NFL (rushing score is simply RB Score without receptions).

This spreadsheet ranks all running backs in Week 3 by RB Score. The top five backs are listed below.

  1. Ray Rice (BAL): 122 RB Score, 8.7 per Play
  2. LaDainian Tomlinson (NYJ): 121 RB Score, 11.0 per Play
  3. James Casey (HOU): 119 RB Score, 19.8 per Play
  4. Darren McFadden (OAK): 112 RB Score, 5.1 per Play
  5. Fred Jackson (BUF): 110 RB Score, 6.5 per Play

Jackson’s performance in a comeback win over the New England Patriots only ranked fifth in Week 3, but for the season he’s been the most productive running back in the league. Jackson edged out Rice by nine yards for the top spot.

This spreadsheet ranks running backs by RB Score per game this season. The top five backs are listed below.

  1. Fred Jackson (BUF): 84.3 RB Score per Game
  2. Ray Rice (BAL): 81.3 RB Score per Game
  3. Matt Forte (CHI): 78.3 RB Score per Game
  4. Darren McFadden (OAK): 77.0 RB Score per Game
  5. Ryan Mathews (SDG): 72.0 RB Score per Game

Wind: Best NFL QBs in Week 3

Eli Manning took the wind out of Lincoln Financial Field with two big touchdown passes in the first quarter to Brandon Jacobs and Victor Cruz that gave the Giants a 14-0 lead. Manning was more than twice as productive as the average quarterback in Week 3 with
273 yards and no turnovers in just 29 plays against a secondary most people expected to be one of the best in the NFL.

This spreadsheet ranks all quarterback performances from Week 3 by QB Score per Play.

  1. Eli Manning (NYG): 6.4 QB Score per Play, 186 QB Score
  2. Matt Schaub (HOU): 5.6 QB Score per Play, 229 QB Score
  3. Matthew Stafford (DET): 5.0 QB Score per Play, 261 QB Score
  4. Mark Sanchez (NYJ): 4.6 QB Score per Play, 224 QB Score
  5. Matt Hasselbeck (TEN): 4.4 QB Score per Play, 175 QB Score

Manning was the most efficient quarterback in Week 3 but Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford put up the biggest numbers. Stafford racked up 417 yards on 52 plays with no turnovers for the Lions’ to beat the Minnesota Vikings in overtime at the Metrodome. Every
other quarterback with over 50 plays in Week 3 turned the ball over.

Stafford’s performance not only guided the Lions to a 3-0 record but also placed his numbers among the elite quarterbacks in the league this season. This spreadsheet ranks all qualified quarterbacks by QB Score per Play for the season. The top five quarterbacks are listed below.

  1. Tom Brady (NWE): 5.6 QB Score per Play, 782 QB Score
  2. Aaron Rodgers (GNB): 4.9 QB Score per Play, 584 QB Score
  3. Tony Romo (DAL): 4.6 QB Score per Play, 538 QB Score
  4. Matthew Stafford (DET): 4.6 QB Score per Play, 579 QB Score
  5. Matt Schaub (HOU): 4.4 QB Score per Play, 458 QB Score

Fire: Best Players from Best Games in Week 3

Colt McCoy’s touchdown pass to Mohamed Massaquoi with 48 seconds left made the Cleveland Browns’ 17-16 win at home over the Miami Dolphins the most exciting game of the weekend, according to the Excitement Index at Advanced NFL Stats. If it wasn’t for that play, McCoy would have gone down as the goat in a loss instead of a hero in the win.

McCoy was half-man, half-terrible against the Dolphins with a QB Score per Play of 1.3 that was only half the production of an average QB on Sunday. He was badly outplayed by Dolphins QB Chad Henne, whose QB Score per Play ranked sixth in the NFL for Week 3. The tide changed for McCoy and the Browns when he completed a short pass to RB Montario Hardesty on fourth down that went for a 10-yard gain.

Before that play, the Dolphins’ probability of winning the game was at 99 percent. Hardesty’s fourth down conversion dropped it to 64 percent. Hardesty kept the Browns in the game with 86 yards on 17 touches and an above average RB Score per Play.

The Browns defense also kept them in the game by holding the Dolphins rushers to the seventh-worst production of any running back committee in the league on Sunday. Rookie RB Daniel Thomas was slightly below average with 122 yards on 26 touches in Cleveland after a solid performance in Week 2, but Reggie Bush was the real problem.

Bush only gained 36 yards on 12 touches and put the ball on the ground for the Browns to recover. He ranked 91st out of 93 running backs in Week 3.

Fans at NFL.com rated the Buffalo Bills 21-point comeback win over the New England Patriots as the best of the weekend. Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two less picks than Tom Brady to post a more efficient QB Score per Play.

The Bills defense gave Fitzpatrick the edge over Brady on Sunday, but the Harvard graduate has only been slightly above average for the season with a 3.4 QB Score per Play (average QB Score/Play is 3.2). In my NFL season preview, I said the Bills would have a tough time making the playoffs even if Fitzpatrick had a big season. He’s improved this year, but not enough to carry the Bills into the playoffs
without a lot of help.

Of course, if Fred Jackson continues to be the most productive running back in the NFL and the defense continues to make opposing quarterbacks look bad, then anything can happen.

-Mosi


Mosi Platt (@MIA_Heat_Index) is the Miami Heat writer for the Wages of Wins Network. You can normally find him at the Miami Heat Index. In addition to making sure the  world knows the greatness of Dwyane Wade, Mosi also helps keep haters in line. Mosi makes his own lists of people who spread false information and he checks them twice thanks to his trusty Blackberry.

Wages of Wins 3 on 3 Fantasy Draft Round 3!

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On the Miami Heat Podcast Mosi Platt and Alfredo Artuaga brought up a great idea. If the NBA players put on a 3 on 3 tournament in a great venue such as Las Vegas who wouldn’t want to watch? Mosi even did a rundown of how the best three person combos on each team looked. With no NBA to watch the Wages of Wins Network decided it would be a lot of fun to draft three person teams (and one alternate) using a snake draft. We’ll be posting the results the next couple of days. Here are our contestants

  • Greg Steele, our Houston Rockets experts, has the 1st, 12th, 13th and 24th picks
  • James Brocato of Shut Up and Jam (a Seattle Supersonics/Oklahoma City Thunder blog) has the 2nd, 11th, 14th and 23rd picks
  • Patrick Minton of The NBA Geek (a Timberwolves blog) has the 3rd, 10th, 15th and 22nd picks
  • Arturo Galletti, co-editor of the Wages of Wins and head writer at Arturo’s Silly Little Stats has the 4th,9th, 16th and 21st picks
  • Ben Gulker of Pistons by the Numbers has the 5th, 8th, 17th and 20th picks
  • Devin Dignam of NBeh? (a Toronto Raptors blog) has the 6th, 7th, 18th and 19th picks.
Each contestant kindly added a few words explaining their pick. In case you missed it you can find the first two rounds here: Round 1 and Round 2. With that let’s get on to the next round!

Round 3

1) With the 13th pick Greg selects Josh Smith


Josh Smith is a defensive pick. Since I selected Kevin Love as my big man, I’m slotting Josh Smith as a swing man in the expectation that his backside help defense and shot-blocking ability will come up huge in a half-court game, where there is less space to cover. He is in the .250-.300 WP48 range, which is  about as good as you can get on a non-C at this point.

2) With the 14th pick James selects Zach Randolph

With Allen as a dominate outside scorer and James as a dominate all-around scorer, I need a clean-up guy who can do work inside. Accordingly, I’m going with Zach Randolph. Randolph is a beast inside, and leads the entire NBA in offensive rebound percentage. In the rare event that Allen misses a 3 or James misses a layup, there is no one better to clean up the mess and give the team more opportunities than Randolph. In addition, Randolph is a very physical player. This physicality will benefit him in a league where players call their own fouls.

3) With the 15th pick Patrick selects Mike Dunleavy

Ok, you’ve all been waiting for a surprise pick and here it is….I take Mike Dunleavey. I think bigs are overrated in this format unless they can shoot 3s (err 2s). I chose he gives me rebounding and size — I have no center but all three guys are 6’9+ so good luck denying me 3s if you gave a traditional point guard on your roster. My strategy vs dominant bigs is just to foul. Remember you’ve got to shoot 80% from 2ptfgs to match my 3s (I don’t plan to shoot 2s unless they are dunks or open layups) unless you have similar outside prowess. And nobody in the NBA is going to shoot 80% near the basket when they’re calling their own fouls, especially if we aren’t going to shoot FTs or foul out players.

4) With the 16th pick Arturo selects Paul Pierce

Oh Patrick, Patrick, Patrick. Dunleavy really? For me, I need shooting and a swing defender that can cover Lebron. Do I go for the 3 pointers or do I take the best player available? It’s not like we have some handy tables available to determine that.
Oh wait we do! Funny, I can do both. My pick is reigning three point champ and the ninth best player according to my rankings: Paul Pierce. I got my wish.

5) With the 17th pick Ben selects Arron Afflalo

I’m taking a risk on a sleeper with my last pick, and it’s either gutsy or stupid. Let me know in the comments.

My rationale: I’m not looking for the best available player by WP. WP isn’t as applicable in a 3-on-3 setting, especially when 3′s are 2′s and 2′s are 1′s. Instead, I’m looking for someone who is a highly skilled “two-point” shooter (and not bad everywhere else).

My primary offense is the Paul/Griffin pick-and-roll. If I round this out with a lights out shooter, the defense has to pick its poison every time down the floor: either help to protect the rim or defend the two-point line. In other words, I’m seeking to eliminate help defense or make the defense pay dearly for helping.

My first and second choices here were Allen and Dunleavy. Both excellent shooters, both highly rated by WP. With them off the board, I’m selecting Arron Afflalo. He’s one of the best three-point shooters available, he’s a well-rounded player overall, and he’s a solid perimeter defender.

6) With the 18th pick Devin selects Lamar Odom

Wow! After a couple of rather…interesting…choices, I get to choose two players…and I have three wonderful players to choose from! I was hoping to get Paul Pierce here, but Arturo was on to me.

So, to review: I have a Big (Gasol) and a Small (Nash). With my next two picks, I am going to pick some players who can play big and small. I also am wary of letting Arturo getting another one of the players he likes (hint hint).

My first pick is Lamar Odom. Odom can handle the ball, play inside or outside (check out his 3pt% from last season), can pass, and can rebound. He can match-up with centres, power forwards, and small forwards. His main weakness – free throw shooting – does not apply in 3-on-3.

I had thought about wrapping this up today but with so much great commentary and debate we have another day to go! Hope you’re enjoying it.

-Dre

The Wages of Wins 3 on 3 Fantasy Draft Round 2

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On the Miami Heat Podcast Mosi Platt and Alfredo Artuaga brought up a great idea. If the NBA players put on a 3 on 3 tournament in a great venue such as Las Vegas who wouldn’t want to watch? Mosi even did a rundown of how the best three person combos on each team looked. With no NBA to watch the Wages of Wins Network decided it would be a lot of fun to draft three person teams (and one alternate) using a snake draft. We’ll be posting the results the next couple of days. Here are our contestants

  • Greg Steele, our Houston Rockets experts, has the 1st, 12th, 13th and 24th picks
  • James Brocato of Shut Up and Jam (a Seattle Supersonics/Oklahoma City Thunder blog) has the 2nd, 11th, 14th and 23rd picks
  • Patrick Minton of The NBA Geek (a Timberwolves blog) has the 3rd, 10th, 15th and 22nd picks
  • Arturo Galletti, co-editor of the Wages of Wins and head writer at Arturo’s Silly Little Stats has the 4th,9th, 16th and 21st picks
  • Ben Gulker of Pistons by the Numbers has the 5th, 8th, 17th and 20th picks
  • Devin Dignam of NBeh? (a Toronto Raptors blog) has the 6th, 7th, 18th and 19th picks.
Each contestant kindly added a few words explaining their pick. In case you missed it Round 1 can be found here. With that let’s go down round 2.

Round 2

1) With the 7th pick Devin selects Steve Nash

Now I have a dilemma. Who is going to be my guard? As much as I like Dwayne Wade, I have to go with Steve Nash. Nash is the best passer, best shooter from all over the court, and also has a high IQ. On defense I might have a little bit of a problem, but there’s not much difference between Nash’s defense and Paul’s defense (and Nash is better than Paul at shooting). I pass on Wade because he can’t shoot from long range.

2) With the 8th pick Ben Selects Blake Griffin

I’m going with who I think is the best big man available in a 3-on-3 setting. While he’s not quite as productive defensively as some of the other obvious choices, interior and help defense won’t be quite as important in a game of 3-on-3, and he’s definitely the most explosive offensively. Paired with Chris Paul in the pick and roll, I don’t think anyone will be able to stop Blake Griffin.

3) With the 9th pick Arturo selects Dwyane Wade


Seriously? I thought I was going to have to struggle here. It becomes really academic for me then. With the ninth pick I take the best guard on the board. Dwyane Wade come on down. Two picks, two best players at their position.

4) With the 10th pick Patrick selects Dirk Nowitzki:

Wow.  I’ve been holding my breath here.  I take Dirk Nowitzki with my pick.  I get rebounding and a fantastic 3 shooter.  Furthermore, in this format players will try to guard the 3 heavily but both my players are very tall and very quick shooters that are very tough to guard and probably nearly impossible for the point guards to deny the 3.  Pretty thrilled with this pick.

5) With the 11th pick James selects Ray Allen

I have struggled a lot with this pick, but I’m going with Ray Allen. With LeBron there to penetrate and handle the ball, and with 3-pointers being worth much more than usual, the importance of a great shooter is exacerbated a great deal. Allen is arguably the best 3 shooter in the world. Additionally, he takes care of the ball and doesn’t force shots. At least, not as much as other unnamed 2-guards. Allen is also an underrated athlete, and can actually penetrate and defend fairly well. Plus he has a great basketball IQ. But he’s on my team for one primary reason: to drill 3s.
err..to drill 2s…

6) With the 12th pick Greg selects Manu Ginobili

In my experience with 3-on-3 ball, team chemistry and complimentary skill sets are about as important as skill level (in 5-on-5 skill more often trumps). Ginobili is primarily an offensive pick, since he is probably the best at attacking the basket of any guard remaining. Though there might be better players available (shouldn’t someone be taking Kobe by now?), Ginobili is a good fit.

We’ll wrap up tomorrow with the final two picks for each contestant. Feel free to let us know your thoughts on our picks!

-Dre