The previous two posts I wrote about the Eurobasket were about the MVP, but now I’d like to take a quick look at some team stats:
- Rank
- Win-loss record
- Estimated Wins
- Estimated Wins per 40 minutes (EWP40)
- Team MVP
- Team LVP
This post will contain the teams that finished in the top 12, and the next will contain the teams that finished ranked 13-24.
Spain
| Rank: | 1st |
| Record: | 10-1 |
| EWP40: | 0.204 |
| Estimated Wins: | 11.25 |
| MVP: | P. Gasol (Est. Wins: 3.40) |
| LVP: | S. Lull (Est. Wins: -0.39) |
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France
| Rank | 2nd |
| Record | 9-2 |
| EWP40 | 0.121 |
| Estimated Wins | 6.75 |
| MVP | N. Batum (Est. Wins: 2.04) |
| LVP | S. Tchicamboud (Est. Wins: -0.36) |
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Russia
| Rank | 3rd |
| Record | 10-1 |
| EWP40 | 0.171 |
| Estimated Wins | 9.35 |
| MVP | A. Kirilenko (Est. Wins: 2.32) |
| LVP | D. Khvostov (Est. Wins: -0.16) |
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Macedonia
| Rank | 4th |
| Record | 7-4 |
| EWP40 | 0.095 |
| Estimated Wins | 5.30 |
| MVP | B. McCalebb (Est. Wins: 2.48) |
| LVP | D. Sokolov (Est. Wins: -0.34) |
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Lithuania
| Rank | 5th |
| Record | 8-3 |
| EWP40 | 0.149 |
| Estimated Wins | 8.20 |
| MVP | S. Jasaitis (Est. Wins: 1.98) |
| LVP | T. Delininkaitis (Est. Wins: -0.16) |
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Greece
| Rank | 6th |
| Record | 7-4 |
| EWP40 | 0.135 |
| Estimated Wins | 7.45 |
| MVP | A. Fostis (Est. Wins: 2.55) |
| LVP | D. Mavroeidis (Est. Wins: -0.30) |
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Slovenia
| Rank | 7th |
| Record | 6-5 |
| EWP40 | 0.104 |
| Estimated Wins | 5.71 |
| MVP | M. Begic (Est. Wins: 1.88) |
| LVP | G. Jagodnik (Est. Wins: -0.37) |
Serbia
| Rank | 8th |
| Record | 5-6 |
| EWP40 | 0.087 |
| Estimated Wins | 4.87 |
| MVP | M. Macvan (Est. Wins: 1.04) |
| LVP | B. Marjanovic (Est. Wins: -0.18) |
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Germany
| Rank | 9th |
| Record | 4-4 |
| EWP40 | 0.107 |
| Estimated Wins | 4.27 |
| MVP | D. Nowitzki (Est. Wins: 1.58) |
| LVP | S. Schultze (Est. Wins: -0.51) |
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Finland
| Rank | 9th |
| Record | 3-5 |
| EWP40 | 0.054 |
| Estimated Wins | 2.14 |
| MVP | T. Kotti (Est. Wins: 0.97) |
| LVP | H. Möttölä (Est. Wins: -0.38) |
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Turkey
| Rank | 11th |
| Record | 3-5 |
| EWP40 | 0.125 |
| Estimated Wins | 5.01 |
| MVP | E. Preldzic (Est. Wins: 1.21) |
| LVP | K. Tunçeri (Est. Wins: -0.51) |
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Georgia
| Rank | 11th |
| Record | 2-6 |
| EWP40 | 0.100 |
| Estimated Wins | 4.00 |
| MVP | V. Sanikidze (Est. Wins: 1.68) |
| LVP | A. Boisa (Est. Wins: -0.07) |
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- Devin
Devin Dignam (of NBeh? “fame”) is the Toronto Raptors writer for the Wages of Wins Network. His background with the Raptors gives him unique insight into many areas including the draft, overpaid players and overrated players.
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Did you calculate the estimated wins via Pythagorean Projection with points scored and points scored against? If so, the fact that France conceded the first match against Spain by not playing Parker and Noah and losing by 30 points falsifies their EWs.
Max:
I didn’t exactly use Pythagorean wins, but the idea is the same.
Yes, France is penalized here for playing Spain twice and (as you pointed out) for giving up in the first game (as both teams were playing a meaningless game at the time).
If you remove the first game France played against Spain, France posted an EWP40 of 0.140. If you remove both games against Spain, France posted an EWP of 0.158. Lithuania also played one game against Spain – if you remove that game, Lithuania had an EWP40 of 0.161.
Russia did not play against Spain during the tournament, which explains their high EWP40. The way I see it, Spain was clearly the best team in the tournament, and France, Lithuania, and Russia were all in the next tier (and seemingly equal), with Greece just missing out. Macedonia got really lucky.
Thanks.
I think it’s funny that Spain has 11.25 estimated wins, when they only played 11 games.
Agreed that Spain was the best team. I did think that France was second best. Yes they did get lucky against Serbia, but on the other hand they were not reall bothered by Russia in the semi final. That game was mostly close, but you never had the feeling that France was in trouble. The quarter final against Greece, historically their bete noire, was a much harder fight where they trailed for 3 quarters or so, before putting the Greeks away.
I lok forward to how they’ll do at the Olympics next year. With a healthy Gelabale and the returns of Turiaf, Beaubois, Bokolo and maybe even Mike Pietrus they shoud only be better and have a chance at bronze.
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