Is San Antonio Hoarding International Players?

We are just the beginning. . . more will follow.

With the prospect of a shortened/non-existent NBA season looming, let’s continue our over-analysis of Eurobasket 2011! This time I’ll be looking at all the players who participated in the Eurobasket and who have ties to the NBA.

There are several European players who play in the NBA (Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Andrei Kirilenko, Tony Parker, etc), and many more whose rights are held by NBA teams. In the following table, I have compiled statistics for every player in the Eurobasket who meets one of three conditions:

  • they are currently on an NBA roster
  • they have played an NBA game
  • their rights are held by an NBA team

Now, before we continue with the list, a little disclaimer: it is very hard for me to determine whether or not teams are still holding on to the rights of the players they have drafted. It is possible that I have made some mistakes. If anyone sees any mistakes and can point me to a source with a correction, I’d appreciate it.

On with the table! The following table is ordered by estimated wins:

There are plenty of interesting numbers to pick out – for example, the performance of certain NBA players. Those numbers are there for you to examine, but I’d actually like to analyze the players who have not played any NBA games. If we look at the totals for each NBA team, here’s what it looks like:

Team

# of Players

Estimated Wins

San Antonio

5

2.53

Utah

2

2.45

Dallas

1

1.31

Minnesota

2

1.26

Washington

1

1.21

Cleveland

1

1.04

Toronto

1

0.77

New Jersey

1

0.75

Atlanta

1

0.11

OKC

1

-0.07

Indiana

1

-0.07

Portland

2

-0.13

Philadelphia

2

-0.21

Houston

1

-0.39

San Antonio has a reputation for drafting and stashing international talent, and the numbers confirm this. Many of the players on other teams were drafted in this year’s draft, but San Antonio has players going back to the 2001 draft (if anyone is wondering, Robertas Javtokas, captain of the Lithuanian team, was selected with the 55th pick that year). Of these 22 players, the standouts include:

  • Viktor Sanikidze, Georgia
  • Ante Tomic, Croatia
  • Nick Calathes, Greece
  • Emir Preldzic, Turkey

Although we must be aware of the problems of small sample sizes, each of these four players seem like they would be good NBA players. Will these players ever make it to the NBA? Only time will tell.

- Devin

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 Devin Dignam (of NBeh? “fame”) is the Toronto Raptors writer for the Wages of Wins Network. His background with the Raptors gives him unique insight into many areas including the draft, overpaid players and overrated players.

Wages of Wins Podcast: Fantasy 3 on 3

Imagine this in a draft.

Click here to listen to this week’s Wages of Wins Podcast!
Wages of Wins Podcast – 3 on 3 Fantasy Draft Winners and Losers

On the Miami Heat Podcast Heat Freak’s Alfredo Arteaga(@UptownReport) had a fantastic idea. What if during the lockout some of the leagues top players got together and ran an ultimate 3 on 3 tournament? With that several members of the Wages of Wins Network got together and held a fantasy draft for such a torunament. Unless the top talent in the NBA suddenly decides to fufill our wishes though all we can do is speculate on who would win. To decide our winners though we decided to have two ‘impartial judges’ that didn’t participate pick grade each team and one player that did participate in the draft to talk about it:

Here’s a brief reminder of our other contestants:

So in order here are the teams and contestants and how we graded them. Each judge had one A, two Bs and three Cs to hand out.

Devin Dignam – Steve Nash, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Kevin Garnett

  • Mosi (B) (with some reservations) This team is limited on outside shooting except for Steve Nash. Nash also takes both the role of shooter and passer, which hurts this team.
  • Dre (B) Good ball handler in Nash, great wing in Odom and best available bigs in Gasol and Garnett. It’s a strong team it’s just not the best team. (Devin agreed with this)
  • Devin’s thoughts – Would give himself a B just because he isn’t the best pick for an A.

Ben Gulker – Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, Arron Afflalo and Kobe Bryant

  • Mosi (C) Arron Afflalo is the weak link on this team. Paul and Griffin were exciting but it just didn’t pan out.
  • Dre  (C+) This team was close with Paul and Griffin but Afflalo barely puts this team in the C range. That said it’s my favorite of the Cs.
  • Devin’s thoughts – Ben needed another forward like player with his third pick.

Arturo Galletti – Dwight Howard, Dwyane Wade, Paul Pierce and Jason Kidd

  • Mosi (A) You’ve got to have a great shooter, a big and a passer. Arturo has that in spades.
  • Dre  (A) Top Center in the league and top Shooting Guard in the league and top five wing in the league. Jason Kidd doesn’t even need to suit up.
  • Devin’s Thoughts – Getting Howard pretty much sealed this for Arturo. It’s not very close.

Patrick Minton – Kevin Durant, Dirk Nowitzki, Mike Dunleavy and Landry Fields

  • Mosi (C) This is the worst team in the league. Fields and Dunleavy have no business playing.
  • Dre  (C) This team is the most fascinating to me. I don’t think they’re favorites but they have a great shot to surprise.
  • Devin’s Thoughts – I think this team is weak in areas. If they’re hot they could upset some teams but they’re not good enough to compete.

James Brocato – LeBron James, Ray Allen, Zach Randolph and Andrei Kirilenko

  • Mosi (B) This team has all of  the components. No one is stopping LeBron and it comes down to this team and Arturo’s.
  • Dre – (B) Might take Garnett over Randolph. That said easily the second best team in this league.
  • Devin’s Thoughts – Zach Randolph is the weak link on this team. Also Andrei Kirilenko played well in Eurobasket 2011.

Greg Steele – Kevin Love, Manu Ginobili, Josh Smith and Stephen Curry

  • Mosi – (C) Confused by Josh Smith and Manu Ginobili, especially given Greg’s excellent fantasy skills. This team will have to double team on defense, which is a recipe for disaster.
  • Dre – (C) Kevin Love is great. Ginobili is not as strong in a league without free throws.
  • Devin’s Thoughts – Josh Smith was to try and help Love on defense. That said Love was probably picked too high.

Listen for more banter and even more analysis about how Arturo’s team could potentially be stopped. Sorry for any participants we may have offended. Of course the only thing more fun that making fantasy teams is arguing about which teams are the best.

-Dre

Cut, Cap and Profit!

The following is a guest post from Imhotep Royster. Imhotep graduated from Harvard in 2008 with a degree in Economics. He is currently a graduate student at American University, studying Political Communication in order to learn how to make income inequality a meaningful political issue. Between college and grad school, he worked briefly first for the National Basketball Association and then as a proprietary trader. Follow him on twitter at @iaroyster

The dream for NBA owners in this CBA fight has long been the reality for America’s workers

Through their respective CBA proposals, both the NFL and NBA seek to remake their league economics in the image of the general American economy at large.

“This is about profitability. We’re going to make it profitable.”
– Commissioner David Stern, in a podcast with ESPN.com on Friday, August 12, while detailing a claim that the players’ union has said in private meetings with the league that teams should only break even financially in a new collective bargaining agreement.

This quote leaves open the question about how league owners are going to achieve their goal of profitability. At root, their answer can similarly be summed up in one word: redistribution. While it is true of both the NBA and NFL, the NBA specifically seeks to facilitate the upwards redistribution of income by literally taking money out of the players pockets in order to pad their own.

Through the CBA, the NBA is trying to emulate general American business. If the owner’s proposal was given a title, “Cut, Cap and Profit” would be a perfect fit. To run and grow a modern day American business means that an organization disconnects the link between worker pay and worker productivity, allowing management to capture all gains. The NBA, in their effort to roll back and cap total player salaries at $2B, is seeking to do exactly that. Decoupling player wages and total league revenues parallels the existing gap in worker pay and worker productivity in the economy at large.1

Since we are discussing professional athletes, disconnecting worker pay and worker productivity is applied differently. Here, the owner’s goal is to disconnect player pay from increases in demand, “demand” being defined as fan interest in the game. Fan interest in the game of basketball is the only thing that gives value to player talent.

With more fan interest, the Marginal Revenue Product of players increases, not because players improve as basketball players, but because additional fans increase marginal revenue, resulting in an increase in demand for the players labor.2 Ordinarily, when demand rises, so do wages. However, in an attempt to emulate a “legitimate American business,” owners seek to disconnect this link, causing increased demand not to result in increased wages, but only increased profits, captured entirely by owners.

Consider these facts comparing wage growth in the American economy at large and the owner’s efforts to remake the NBA economy in this image. Since 1980, the economy has grown substantially, but only the fraction at the top has benefited. Average income went from $30,941 in 1980 to $31,244 in 2008. In nearly 30 years, the average income of American workers has grown just $303.3 Though wages have stagnated, the productivity of the American worker continued to grow,4 resulting in record profits for America’s corporations and CEO’s. In line with flattened wages amidst exploding productivity, the ratio of CEO to average worker pay has gone from roughly 44:1 in 1980 to 411:1 in 2005,5 before the crash of 2008. The idea that every owner deserves at least $10M in profit per season,6 regardless of the stupidity of their decision making, rivals the ratio of CEO pay to average worker pay.

While the income of the average American has remained effectively repressed, NBA players have participated in the growth of the game of basketball. In 1985, the average NBA salary was $330,000. By 1995, the average NBA salary was $1.8M and by 2007, average salary reached $5.2M.7 In this context, the NBA’s efforts to hold total player salaries at $2B, an average of $5M per player with no room for growth for at least the next eight years,8 is nothing other than the NBA attempting to adopt the established practices of America’s corporations.

Consider these findings from a recent study out of Northeastern University, which examines the beneficiaries of recent growth in the economy.9 Over the six quarter period between the second quarter of 2009 and the fourth quarter of 2010, “corporate profits captured 88% of the growth in real national income while aggregate wages and salaries accounted for only slightly more than 1% of the growth in real national income.1011 As the NBA continues to grow over the next decade, the league proposes that owners receive 100% of future revenue growth, while players receive 0%, unless certain growth targets are realized. And, the exclusion of players from the future growth of the league comes after they have had their salaries reduced by 8% in year one of the owners proposed CBA.

Let us acknowledge that even if the owners are able to push through a CBA that satisfies their every desire, NBA athletes will likely maintain their standing among “the best-paid union members in the world.”12 However, after 30 years of rising wages in the NBA, it seems that it is finally time for NBA athletes to join the rest of working America, as employees in a profession where their salaries will remain flat regardless of the economic value generated by their labor.

When David Stern and Adam Silver discussed the final NBPA proposal just prior to the lockout on July 1, their voices dripped in disgust as they noted that average player salaries would grow to $7M at the end of the NBPA’s six year proposal. As Stern noted on Bill Simmons podcast on August 12: “At some point, when the proposal is, in light of today’s economics, we want to go in six years from a five-million dollar average to a seven million dollar average salary, it really makes no sense. None. It doesn’t even begin to respond to the issues.” The NBPA’s proposal, though a $500M giveback, kept player salaries as a percentage of league revenues and assumed the continued growth of the NBA. As Stern says himself, “in light of today’s economics,” maintaining any sort of relationship between pay and productivity,13 or between player wages and total league revenues, is absurd from the NBA’s point of view. In today’s economy, worker wages do not rise under any circumstances.1415

How did we get to this point, just 12 years after basketball owners secured more control over player costs than in any other sport and enjoyed what was considered “a landmark victory” coming out of the 1999 NBA lockout?16 How is it that yet again, a “fundamental economic restructuring” is necessary coming off a historic season, where total league revenue exceeded $4 Billion for the first time, where the NBA delivered record television audiences for its network partners, experienced record merchandise sales and maintained attendance figures exceeded 90% of capacity?

Although NBA ownership claims that 22 out of 30 teams are losing money in a system that includes one tenth of the revenue sharing of Major League Baseball, this lockout is based not on any relevant economic realities, but on political realities. In today’s America, every political and economic dispute is resolved in favor of the moneyed few. From the much ballyhooed deficit reduction deal that was composed 100% of cuts to services and government agencies while asking nothing of our wealthiest citizens and corporations, to the anti-union and anti-worker legislation that has passed in states like Wisconsin, Ohio and Michigan, and at a time when income inequality in America is at its highest levels in history,1718 the United States is a country where in business and in politics, the very rich invariably get their way. This idea has finally reached the NBA, where the extremely wealthy individuals that populate NBA ownership have decided to use their muscle to change their financial relationship with players, in the image of the general American economy. It seems truer now than ever, as author William Rhoden notes in “Forty Million Dollar Slaves,” that “for all the wealth [that players] generate for the league in their comet-quick careers, [players] share will always be circumscribed — through bullying or forcible lockouts if necessary — by the dictates of the owners rather than by the widely praised American free-market system.”

Foot Notes

Scorers are overrated

Arturo Galletti is the Co-editor and Director of Analytics for the Wages of Wins Network. He is an Electrical Engineer with General Electric in the lovely isle of Puerto Rico, where he keeps his production lines running by day and night (and weekends) and works on sport analysis with his free time.

The sky is also blue.

I know that we tend to harp on this point but it’s worth repeating. We as fans tend to focus on the obvious. The person who throws the football. The person who swings the bat and yes the person who shoots the rock. We remember the makes and forget the misses. This makes us terrible at assigning proper value to the actions of the players in the game and determining their value.

We may have even written some books to that effect (on sale now! :-)).

The point of this post is not to argue whether or not scorers are overrated. I’m treating that as a given. The point is to come up with a systemic way to quantify this effect using math. If I focused on the truly exceptional scorers or players since 1978 — and put in a minute requirement at 1600 minutes –it might look something like this:


That’s the 85 players who are 2 standard deviations from the mean either in scoring per 48 minutes or point margin creation per 48 minutes (or both in some cases) since 1978.

If you keep coming back I might even have more on this for you lucky fans! I’m evil like that.

P.S. Some quick explanations for Point Margin Produced (for the full detail go here)
The Wins Produced metric works great when looking over how much a player helped our hurt your team for a season or over their career. When trying to discuss game to game though it can be a little abstract. Luckily the Wins Produced formula is all about converting points (or the difference in points using efficiency differential) to wins so what if we convert wins back to points? It’s easy enough to do with the following formula.

Point Margin = 31 .0 (Wins Produced-Wins Produced by an Average player)

Basically the difference in Wins Produced for a player versus an average player can be mapped directly to point margin (go here if you want the full detail behind that equation). Let’s illustrate this as well (for simplicity I’m using .100 WP48 as the player average, it’s actually .099). Here’s a break down of how that works on a minute by minute basis.


Trotting out a star (0.250 WP48) is like spotting your team 4-5 points. Trotting out a player like Bargnani? Just the opposite. Trotting out an average player doesn’t gain you any points, but it doesn’t lose you any either.

If you want the entire league in a shiny image you can get them all here:
Point Margin for every player in 2011

-Arturo

Dave Berri on the Hayes Advantage

Berri Discusses NBA Player Lockout

In case you missed it last week our own radio personality Dr. David Berri was on the Hays Advantage discussing none other than his own Detroit Lions! He also may have brought up something about economics and the NBA lockout. It’s a nice quick listen if you’re looking for some midday sports relief.