Which NBA draft had the most max players based on the new criteria for max salaries outlined in the tentative agreement to end the lockout?
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NBA Draft: Best and Worst Classes for Max Players
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Monthly Archives: November 2011
NBA’s New Max Salary: For Fan Favorites and Media Darlings Only
Mosi Platt from the Miami Heat Index analyzes how the new max salary provision in the tentative agreement to end the NBA lockout would affect past, present and future classes of restricted free agents.
Freaky Thoughts on Baseball
My latest for the Freakonomics blog — Labor Peace in Baseball May Not Last Forever — looks at the recent labor agreement in baseball. Yes, baseball (I hope to get to basketball later in the week).
I should add two more notes on the post. First, predictions about events that take place five years from now are great. The odds that anyone will remember I said this (including me) is fairly low.
Beyond that point, I should emphasize that contrary to the claims of owners in professional sports, competitive balance in professional sports isn’t really about institutions like revenue sharing, luxury taxes, and salary caps. Of course, the empirical evidence on this subject doesn’t stop owners from bringing up competitive balance whenever owners would like more money.
One last note …for those who want a prediction that we can check out very soon, I actually told Ron Dicker of Huffington Post that I expect that NBA’s television ratings this Christmas to be higher than the ratings for NBA games last Christmas. I guess that means I better spend my Christmas just watching all the NBA games.
- DJ
Free Agents: Power Forwards
Given the upcoming end to the NBA Lockout, we’ve decided to start actually reviewing basketball news again! Yesterday we went over the free agent centers. Today we continue by going over the available power forwards.
| Player | Age | 09'-11' WP48 | 09'-11' WP per year | 11' WP48 | 11' WP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Humphries | 26 | 0.252 | 6.2 | 0.345 | 14.8 |
| Chuck Hayes | 28 | 0.139 | 4.5 | 0.187 | 8.1 |
| David West | 31 | 0.1 | 5.8 | 0.141 | 7.2 |
| Andrei Kirilenko | 30 | 0.165 | 6.3 | 0.163 | 6.8 |
| Josh McRoberts | 24 | 0.16 | 2.7 | 0.18 | 6 |
| Reggie Evans | 31 | 0.192 | 3 | 0.337 | 5.6 |
| Luc Mbah a Moute | 25 | 0.096 | 4.1 | 0.089 | 3.9 |
| Chris Wilcox | 29 | 0.06 | 1 | 0.145 | 3 |
| Shelden Williams | 28 | 0.097 | 1.4 | 0.084 | 1.6 |
| Brandan Wright | 24 | 0.112 | 0.8 | 0.127 | 1 |
| Craig Smith | 28 | 0.047 | 1.1 | 0.041 | 0.5 |
| Troy Murphy | 31 | 0.287 | 10.5 | 0.021 | 0.2 |
| Didier Ilunga-Mbenga | 30 | -0.011 | -0.1 | 0.015 | 0.1 |
| Brian Skinner | 35 | -0.02 | -0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| DeMarre Carroll | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonas Jerebko* | 24 | 0.129 | 3.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juwan Howard | 38 | -0.007 | -0.1 | -0.008 | -0.1 |
| Joe Smith | 36 | 0.033 | 0.4 | -0.139 | -0.2 |
| Leon Powe | 27 | 0.096 | 1.2 | -0.029 | -0.2 |
| Brian Scalabrine | 33 | -0.158 | -1.2 | -0.164 | -0.3 |
| Hamady Ndiaye | 24 | -0.24 | -0.1 | -0.24 | -0.4 |
| Jared Jeffries | 30 | 0.034 | 0.9 | -0.032 | -0.4 |
| Brian Cardinal | 34 | -0.072 | -0.9 | -0.039 | -0.5 |
| Jeff Green | 25 | 0.002 | 0.1 | -0.01 | -0.5 |
| Melvin Ely | 33 | -0.136 | -0.7 | -0.066 | -0.5 |
| Darius Songaila | 33 | -0.094 | -2 | -0.406 | -0.6 |
| Solomon Jones | 27 | -0.049 | -0.6 | -0.064 | -0.7 |
| Carl Landry | 28 | 0.062 | 2.6 | -0.019 | -0.8 |
| Jason Smith | 25 | -0.063 | -0.8 | -0.035 | -0.8 |
| Malik Allen | 33 | -0.154 | -1.3 | -0.216 | -0.8 |
| Yi Jianlian | 24 | -0.024 | -0.7 | -0.035 | -0.8 |
| Dante Cunningham | 24 | -0.006 | -0.1 | -0.047 | -1.6 |
| Josh Powell | 28 | -0.116 | -1.6 | -0.125 | -1.7 |
| Glen Davis | 25 | -0.044 | -1.5 | -0.038 | -1.8 |
Great picks
- Kris Humphries: Devin noticed a nice trend in Humphries’ career — when he plays over 900 minutes, he plays well. He had a breakout season last year and he’s still young. He’ll help the team that signs him, and here’s hoping the Nets try and keep him teamed up with Deron Williams.
- Chuck Hayes: Chuck Hayes played great last season — the first year he’s been trusted with over 2000 minutes. His last few season averages are a bit lower, but that’s because he’s filled in at center for the injury prone Rockets. He’s a great value and an easy choice for any team if they get the chance.
Leave them alone
- Glen Davis: He has been absolutely terrible throughout his entire career. The Celtics have been good in spite of him, not thanks to him. Any team looking to contend should pass on Big Baby.
- Yi Jianlian: He was supposed to be the next Yao. Sadly it hasn’t played out that way. Hopefully teams won’t be sold on his “potential” and will instead let him walk.
- Jeff Green: Amazing how Boston was able to horde bad players. Jeff Green claims he was in Durant’s shadow, but the truth is he was actually standing in Durant’s way, and once he left, he helped out the Thunder. The only team he’ll help this year is the Celtics — so long as he moves to another team.
Curious cases
- Andrei Kirilenko: AK-47 was once a great player worth a big contract. Sadly, he’s been on and off thanks to injury. Still, he has been a productive player, and for the right cost he’ll help someone out. In fact, any team looking at David West should really consider Kirilenko instead, as he’ll probably be cheaper and just as productive.
- Reggie Evans: Evans is older and coming off of injuries, but at one point last year he was jockeying for a top spot in the league. I don’t know if he can be the player to build around but he could be a great help to a team in need of a rebounding specialist.
- Jonas Jerebko: Jonas had a great rookie season. He was a shining spot on an otherwise terrible Pistons. Sadly, he lost all of last season to injury. It’s always a risk to take on players just coming back from injury. That said he’s young and if the price is right he’s definitely worth it.
Summing up
Although there are definitely some good values in this year’s power forward crop, there are also many potholes. David West has been average in his recent years and has just hit 30, which is when most players start to decline. He’ll probably help a team, but will likely not be worth the contract he gets. Some young players with “potential”, like Green and Davis, will likely hurt some teams’ pocket books and win-loss records. With that said, a few teams will get some productive players — let’s just hope they play them the minutes they deserve.
-Dre
Thanks to Hoopsworld for compiling the free agents position by position. Let me know of any I have missed or that have changed contract situations during the lockout.
Free Agents: Centers
With the lockout hopefully coming to a close, we can once again begin discussing the NBA and players! Given this great news, we decided to make some free agent help sheets, and we’ll be starting with centers.
Which center should I get?
| Player | Age | 09'-11' WP48 | 09'-11' WP per year | 11' WP48 | 11' WP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Chandler | 29 | 0.176 | 5.7 | 0.285 | 12.2 |
| Nene Hilario | 29 | 0.185 | 9.7 | 0.222 | 10.6 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 23 | 0.146 | 4 | 0.177 | 7.6 |
| Marc Gasol | 26 | 0.135 | 7.1 | 0.124 | 6.7 |
| Samuel Dalembert | 30 | 0.188 | 8 | 0.146 | 5.9 |
| Jeff Foster | 34 | 0.176 | 3.7 | 0.269 | 5.3 |
| Kwame Brown | 29 | 0.053 | 1.2 | 0.07 | 2.5 |
| Kurt Thomas | 39 | 0.126 | 3.2 | 0.101 | 2.5 |
| Spencer Hawes | 23 | 0.004 | 0.1 | 0.038 | 1.4 |
| Aaron Gray | 26 | 0.094 | 1 | 0.121 | 1.3 |
| Hamed Haddadi | 26 | 0.108 | 0.4 | 0.282 | 1 |
| Erick Dampier | 36 | 0.157 | 4.3 | 0.051 | 0.9 |
| Jamaal Magloire | 33 | 0.087 | 0.7 | 0.259 | 0.9 |
| Zydrunas Ilgauskas | 36 | 0.036 | 1.1 | 0.027 | 0.6 |
| Joel Przybilla | 32 | 0.227 | 5 | 0.033 | 0.4 |
| Hilton Armstrong | 27 | -0.074 | -1 | 0.028 | 0.3 |
| Tony Battie | 35 | 0.03 | 0.4 | 0.018 | 0.1 |
| Theo Ratliff | 38 | 0 | 0 | -0.116 | -0.2 |
| Nenad Krstic | 28 | -0.015 | -0.5 | -0.012 | -0.4 |
| Dan Gadzuric | 33 | 0.012 | 0.1 | -0.05 | -0.5 |
| Alexis Ajinca | 23 | -0.155 | -0.6 | -0.072 | -0.5 |
| Francisco Elson | 35 | -0.019 | -0.2 | -0.065 | -0.8 |
| Kyrylo Fesenko | 24 | -0.117 | -0.8 | -0.16 | -1.5 |
| Jason Collins | 32 | -0.198 | -1.5 | -0.131 | -1.6 |
| Eddy Curry | 28 | -0.517 | -0.3 | N/A | N/A |
| Greg Oden | 23 | 0.205 | 2.6 | N/A | N/A |
Great picks
- Nene Hilario: In terms of consistency and performance, Nene is the best available center. Tack on the fact that he’s unrestricted and it’s clear he’ll have lots of suitors. He is a bit older but he should still have several good seasons left.
- Tyson Chandler: He had a great season last year, but he’s had some injury problems in the last few seasons. He’s a restricted free agent and Cuban will probably put up a fight. The new CBA might make him easier to get loose though and he can definitely help another team.
- DeAndre Jordan: He’s young and seemed to hit his stride last season. Any team looking for a top center with a great upside should give him a look. Of course, if the Clippers decide to be winners for once, they may just retain his services
Stay away
- Eddy Curry: The fact that his rank last season went up by not playing is not a good sign. Some team will think he may be able to help but they will be wrong. It’s best to just pass on him.
- Alexis Ajinca: He’s young but he’s been terrible his first several seasons. A bad center is a good way to torpedo your team (see Minnesota and Toronto) and Alexis could be that player.
Curious cases
- Greg Oden: He’s been injury prone and has been labeled a draft bust. With that said in his limited minutes he’s been great. He’s not worth a big contract but he could be worth a look for some teams.
- Joel Przbilla: He’s older and has had some injury problems. That said, he’s in the same boat as Oden. He’s played great in the past and could be a decent bench player for a reasonable price.
It’s great to be talking basketball again — even though I am talking about the Nuggets possibly losing their best player. Let me know if I missed any players.
-Dre
Thanks to Hoopsworld for compiling the free agents position by position. Let me know of any I have missed or that have changed contract situations during the lockout.