My latest for the Freakonomics blog — Labor Peace in Baseball May Not Last Forever — looks at the recent labor agreement in baseball. Yes, baseball (I hope to get to basketball later in the week).
I should add two more notes on the post. First, predictions about events that take place five years from now are great. The odds that anyone will remember I said this (including me) is fairly low.
Beyond that point, I should emphasize that contrary to the claims of owners in professional sports, competitive balance in professional sports isn’t really about institutions like revenue sharing, luxury taxes, and salary caps. Of course, the empirical evidence on this subject doesn’t stop owners from bringing up competitive balance whenever owners would like more money.
One last note …for those who want a prediction that we can check out very soon, I actually told Ron Dicker of Huffington Post that I expect that NBA’s television ratings this Christmas to be higher than the ratings for NBA games last Christmas. I guess that means I better spend my Christmas just watching all the NBA games.